It is impossible to discuss a future role of the United States of
America in the world without understanding the global processes that
have been taken place in the world over the last several years.
September 11, without doubt, was a break point event in these processes.
First, it showed people a danger of an international terrorism. Second,
the event brought about a confrontation between two different viewpoints
on the development of world politics. On the one hand, politicians from
many countries believe that any active actions to preserve world order
must be organized only by United Nations. On the other hand, the United
States is pushing forward its aggressive unilateral policy that is based
only on Washington’s (sometimes biased) understanding of the current
international situation.
This US strategy was clearly demonstrated in Iraq. Now, after two
and a half years of the war, the question must be asked if this policy
achieved its goals. Did it bring a peace and stabilization in the post
Sadam country? Yes, the military operation itself was a success.
Actually, it was difficult to imagine any other result of that war
considering that the conflict was between a mighty US and Iraq, a third
level military power. Despite the military successes, this strategy did
not produce desirable results. The USA cannot stabilize the situation,
and the Iraqis continue to organize attacks against the US and coalition
forces.
May be the USA had another reason to start the war? Some people
(in Russia, anyway) believe that a real goal of US policy in the Middle
East is to take under control a so-called the world’s hydrocarbon
ellipse. It is obvious, that a power controlling that region would
become a master of the world in this century. Now, the USA is in much
less favorable economical position than some other countries (potential
America’s enemies). So, the US efforts to extend its influence over that
area are an attempt to liquidate this imbalance once and for all.
But this goal could hardly be achieved by military means. If the
USA decided to occupy some other states in that area, they would surely
face a guerrilla resistance, like in Iraq and Afganistan. History proved
that the only way to suppress insurgency is a policy of mass terror, and
I doubt that America will ever use it. The attempts to organize puppet
democratic governments will fail too. Such regimes will be hated by the
general population and overthrown as soon as US army leaves the country.
By the way, why did Bush’s administration decide to occupy a
sovereign country to fight international terrorism? What is the
connection between an organized group of criminals and an independent
state? Why not occupy Italy to fight the Italian Mafia?
I think that a Washington’s current unilateral policy is useless
and even dangerous. It is increased a general instability in the World.
Iraq became a place that attracts terrorism from all over the globe. The
wave of anti-Americanism grew up in the world, even in Western Europe, a
traditional ally of the United States. The danger of a terrorist attack
on the territory of the United States is even higher than itwas before
the Iraq war. It seems that the only purpose of US actions is to remain
the world’s single superpower by any means.
I believe that the USA will not be able to continue its unilateral
policy anymore because it goes against objective processes in the world
economy and international relations. First of these processes is
globalization that does make the world more and more interconnected and
interdependent place. Another factor is a steady development of a
multipolar world. I doubt that China would joint a unipolar structure
and be obedient to US decisions. The EU would become another world’s
center of power. The political regimes in European countries are very
close to American, so any military confrontations are very unlikely at
this point. But an economical competition would be intense. I would say
that the other war, between the euro and the dollar, is already on, and
the dollar is loosing so far.
There is another potential threat to the USA. Only a few years ago,
a dollar was almost equivalent to gold. People and businesses all over
the world tried to keep their savings in dollars. A huge amount of
American currency was accumulated in foreign countries. Now, when a
dollar is getting cheaper, many try to get rid of it and buy euros. What
would happen if all this dollar cash came back to the USA? India, Japan,
and Russia will probably also try to make their influence on the world
politics comparable with their economical potential.
Also, it is possible that the USA will return to the policy of
partial isolationism to concentrate on its own problems. First, US
troops should be withdrawn from Iraq. This action will greatly
destabilize the situation in the Middle East, and Iraq, probably, will
become a new center of Islamic fundamentalism. Islamic radicals will
increase their activity and the situation will become very dangerous for
many countries, but not for the USA. The terrorists simply could not
reach the United States. It will be a real danger for the EU and Russia,
American adversaries. In Russia the war could spread from Chechnya to
the whole Caucasus region. In European countries the danger of terrorist
acts would increase dramatically. Of course it would be terrible act (an
immediate withdrawing of the troops) from a moral point of view, but the
States have already shown several times that they care only about their
own interests.
Money and troops released after the war would be used to protect
borders. The threat of terrorist attack using a weapon of mass
distraction is real, and the open boarders are the easiest way to get in
the States. Boarders should be guarded not by overweight volunteers
gathering around an American flag, but by elite troops. Some funds would
be used to improve security services; I think they need more informers.
The terrorists can strike only from inside of the United States. That is
why the only way to fight them is to put everything in order in your own
country.
In conclusion, no one can say how the world will look like even in
the nearest future; we can only predict. One thing is clear, however,
the future of the country directly depends on today’s policy.
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