‘‹“—?‰˜?… ‘?˜›’?…. …?? ‚…˜??’˜?‘’?.
‹i! i a? , a §c?c ie i ®!eai aY®a?i ? ?®F®-?!a¤i
?aaF ic«Y?©, a®¤Ya¦?a ai¤ ®a®cea ?®ia?©, ?®a®aea
® ! §?aaYaai. ’ ?®ce, ?a?¬Ya, c FY®¬Yaa?? ?®ia?i a®c-
??, ?ai¬®©, «???; c ¬Ya ??Y – ?®ia?i a?«e, ¬ aae a?®-
a®aa?, aa?®aY?i. …aaYaacY®, ca® Y caY ®a®ceY ?®ia?i
¬®Faa !eai ?®«®aaii ®?aY¤Y«Ye, ?!® “®?aY¤Y«?ai” ?®ia?Y
– ia® § c?a acYaa? YF® ? ¤aaF?¬, !®«YY ?§cYaae¬. ?cYc?¤-
®, ?a®aeYaa ®?aY¤Y«Y?i ®¤?a ?®ia?© cYaY§ ¤aaF?Y ¤®«¦Y
F¤Y-a® ?®c aiai, ¤®©¤i ¤® a ¬ea ?Yac?cea ?®ia?©, ? ?®-
a®ae¬ ac®¤iaai caY ®aa «ieY ? ?®a®aeY a ¬? Y ®?aY¤Y«iia-
ai, a®«i?® ?®iaiiaai. ’ ??Y ?®ia?i aaeYaacaia ? c aY®-
a?? cYa®ia®aaY©. ‡¤Yai ¬e a aa¬®aa?¬ Y?®a®aeY ?§ ?a.
˜®¤ ®?ea®¬ (i?a?Ya?¬Ya®¬, ?a?ea ?Y¬) ¬e !a¤Y¬ ?®?-
¬ ai Y?®a®aai c®a?a®?§c®¤?¬ai a®c®?a?®aai aa«®c?©, c ?®-
a®aea !«i¤ Yaai a® ?«? ¤aaF®Y ic«Y?Y, ae??a?aaYaai a®a
?«? ¤aaF®© aY§a«ia a. ‡ ¬Ya?¬, ca® “®?ea” Y ®!i§ aY«i®
¤®«¦Y !eai ?®aa c«Y cY«®cY?®¬; ® ¬®¦Ya ?a®aY? ai Y§ –
c?a?¬® ®a YF®; ?a? ia®¬ cY«®cY? ceaaa? Ya c a®«? !«i¤ –
aY«i ?«? ae??a a®a ?a®?aa®¤ieYF®. ®a YF® § c?a?a a®«i?®
aYeY?Y: ca® ?¬Y® !«i¤ ai ? ? ??Y ic«Y?i ae??a?a®c ai.
…a«? aY§a«ia a ®?ea c ai?aaYaai ?a? YF® ?®ca®aY??,
F®c®aia ®! ®?eaY a® a«ac ©e¬ ?aa®¤®¬. ?¬Y® a ??Y ®?eae
¬e !a¤Y¬ §¤Yai a aa¬ aa?c ai ? ¤®! c«Y?Y “a® a«ac ©e¬
?aa®¤®¬” ¤«i ?a a?®aa? ®?aa? ai. ’®a ae ?a, ca® ?a? ?®ca®-
aY?? ®?ea YF® ®a®ceY aa«®c?i a®aa iiaai, ?, § c?a,
¬e c?a cY ®¦?¤ ai aaa®©c?c®aa? c aa®a, a®¦Y Y !a¤Ya ? ¦-
¤e© a § ®F®c a?c ai.
‘«ac ©e¬ a®!ea?Y¬ ( ?«?, ?®a®cY, ?a®aa® a®!ea?Y¬ ) –
§ec Yaai cai??© ae ?a, ?®a®ae© c ®?eaY a® a«ac ©e¬ ?aa®¤®¬
¬®¦Ya ?a®?§®©a? ?«? Y ?a®?§®©a?. ‘®!ea?i ¬e !a¤Y¬ ®!®§ –
c ai !®«ie?¬? !a?c ¬? « a?a?®F® «ae c?a .
˜ aa¬®aa?¬ Ya?®«i?® ?a?¬Ya®c a®!ea?©. 1. ??ea – !a®a –
?Y ¬®Yae; a®!ea?Y A – ?®ic«Y?Y FYa! . 2. ??ea – !a®a –
?Y aaYa ¬®Ya; a®!ea?Y B – ?®ic«Y?Y aaYa FYa!®c. 3. ??ea
?YaY¤ c Faa??e ?§ n a?F «®c; a®!ea?Y C – ?a? ¦Y?Y a®ai
!e ®¤®F® ?§ ?a. 4. ??ea – ceaaaY« ?® ¬?eY?; a®!ea?Y D –
?®? ¤ ?Y. 5. ??ea – ce?¬ ?Y aF ¤ ®¤®© ? aae ?§ ?®«®-
¤e; a®!ea?Y … – ?®ic«Y?Y aa§ . 6. ’®a ¦Y ®?ea, ca® c ?a?-
¬YaY 5; a®!ea?Y F – ?®ic«Y?Y ? aae cYac®®© ¬ aa?.
˜ aa¬ aa?c i ?YaYc?a«YeY c e?a ?a?¬Ya a a®!ea?i
A,B,C, c?¤?¬, ca® ? ¦¤®Y ?§ ?a ®!« ¤ Ya ? ?®©-a® aaY?Yii
c®§¬®¦®aa? – ®¤? !®«ieY©, ¤aaF?Y ¬YieY©, ?a?cY¬ ¤«i
Y?®a®aea ?§ ?a ¬e aa §a ¬®¦Y¬ aYe?ai, ? ?®Y ?§ ?a !®-
«YY, ? ?®Y ¬YYY c®§¬®¦®. ˜ ?a?¬Ya a®!ea?Y A !®«YY c®§-
¬®¦® (cYa®ia®), cY¬ B, a®!ea?Y F !®«YY c®§¬®¦®, cY¬
…. ‹i!®Y a«ac ©®Y a®!ea?Y ®!« ¤ Ya ? ?®©-a® aaY?Yii c®§-
¬®¦®aa?, ?®a®aai c ?a?ae??Y ¬®¦® ?§¬Ya?ai c?a«Y®. —a®-
!e aa c?c ai a®!ea?i ?® aaY?Y? ?a c®§¬®¦®aa?, a¦®
aci§ ai a ? ¦¤e¬ ?§ ?a ? ?®Y-a® c?a«®, ?®a®a®Y aY¬ !®«i-
eY, cY¬ !®«ieY c®§¬®¦®aai a®!ea?i. ˜a® c?a«® ¬e ? §®cY¬
cYa®ia®aaii a®!ea?i.
?a¬Ya?¬, ca® aa c?c i ¬Y¦¤a a®!®© ?® aaY?Y? c®§¬®¦-
®aa? a §«?ceY a®!ea?i, ¬e a?«®e ac?a ai !®«YY cYa®ia-
e¬? aY a®!ea?i, ?®a®aeY ?a®?aa®¤ia c eY, ¬YYY cYa®iae¬?
– aY, ?®a®aeY ?a®?aa®¤ia aY¦Y; ¬ «®cYa®iae¬? – aY, ?®a®-
aeY c®®!eY Y ?a®?aa®¤ia. ˜ ?a?¬Ya, a®!ea?Y “ce? ¤Y?Y
¤®¦¤i c ?®a?cY 1-F® ?ii ?aY¤aa®ieYF® F®¤ ” !®«YY cYa®ia-
®, cY¬ “ce? ¤Y?Y aYF c ?®a?cY a®a ¦Y ¤Yi”, a®!ea?Y
“§Y¬«YaaiaY?i c ?®a?cY, ?aYcee ieYY ?® ?aYa?c®aa? 3
! «« , c aYcY?Y ?aY¤aa®ieYF® F®¤ ” ?a ©Y ¬ «® cYa®ia®
(a®ai a ?®Y §Y¬«YaaiaY?Y ? !«i¤ «®ai c 1977 F., ? aa –
a?aa?? F®c®a?a, ca® ?®¤®!eY a®!ea?i ?a®?aa®¤ia a § c 100
«Ya). ’ ??¬ ®!a §®¬, ?®ia?Y cYa®ia®aa? a®!ea?i a a ¬®F®
c « aYa® aci§ec Yaai a ?®ia?Y¬ YF® c aa®ae.
• a ?aYa?§ai cYa®ia®aa? a®!ea?© c?a« ¬?, a¦® aaa ®-
c?ai ? ?ai-a® Y¤??aea ?§¬YaY?i. ‚ ? cYaacY a ?®© Y¤??aee
YaaYaacY® c§iai cYa®ia®aai ¤®aa®cYa®F® a®!ea?i, a.Y.
a ?®F® a®!ea?i, ?®a®a®Y c aY§a«ia aY ®?ea Y?§!Y¦® ¤®«¦-
® ?a®?§®©a?. ˜a?¬Ya ¤®aa®cYa®F® a®!ea?i – ce? ¤Y?Y Y
!®«YY eYaa? ®c?®c ?a? !a®a ?? ?Fa «i®© ?®aa?. „aaF®©
?a?¬Ya ¤®aa®cYa®F® a®!ea?i: ” ? ¬Yi, !a®eYe© ccYaa aa-
?®© cYaYaai ‡Y¬«i, Y aa Ya Yn ?a?aaaacYe¬ a?aa-
??®¬ “.
˜a®a?c®?®«®¦®aaii ¤®aa®cYa®F® a®!ea?i ic«iYaai Yc®§-
¬®¦®Y a®!ea?Y – a®, ?®a®a®Y c ¤ ®¬ ®?eaY c®®!eY Y ¬®-
¦Ya ?a®?§®©a?. ˜a?¬Ya: ” ce? ¤Y?Y 12 ®c?®c ?a? !a®a ??
®¤®© ?Fa «i®© ?®aa? “.
…a«? ?a???a ai ¤®aa®cYa®¬a a®!ea?i cYa®ia®aai, a cai
Y¤??aeY, Yc®§¬®¦®¬a – a cai a«i, a® caY ¤aaF?Y a®!e-
a?i – c®§¬®¦eY, ® Y ¤®aa®cYaeY !a¤aa a a ?aYa?§®c aiai
cYa®ia®aai¬?, «Y¦ e?¬? ¬Y¦¤a a«Y¬ ? Y¤??aeY©, a®aa c«ii-
e?¬? ? ?ai a® ¤®«i Y¤??aee.
’ ??¬ ®!a §®¬, aaa ®c«Ye Y¤??ae ?§¬YaY?i cYa®ia®a-
a? – cYa®ia®aai ¤®aa®cYa®F® a®!ea?i ? ¤? ? §® cYa®ia-
®aaY© – c?a« ®a a«i ¤® Y¤??aee.
? ?®Y !e a®!ea?Y A ¬e !e ? c§i«?, YF® cYa®ia®aai P(A)
a¤®c«Yac®aiYa aa«®c?i:
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