Стратегии антикризисного управления.
Ii caiaaeiie eeoa?aoo?a a oneiaeyo eiieo?aioeee auaeeaaaiinoue oe?i a
ia?aua 2-3 aiaea (iaeue aecian) ioiineony eae 3:1, aaea 3 – oe?iu n
oniaoiui aecianii e 1 – oe?iu aaie?iou. Yoi caaeneo io ninoiyiey
i?iaeoeoa oe?iu. Iaiaoiaeeii oniaoii ooieoeeiie?iaaoue ia ?uiea eee
oniaoii i?ioeainoiyoue. A ia?aii neo/aa eiaai aeaei n ninoiyoaeueiie
oe?iie, ai aoi?ii – n eiieo?aioii niiniaiie. I?e auai?a no?aoaaee oe?iu
(i?ioeaaeo?u aioee?eceniiai oi?aaeaiey) iu iiiaaeaai a noa?o
aeayoaeueiinoe. I?ioeaaeo?u aioee?eceniiai oi?aaeaiey:
1. Ainnoaiiaeoaeueiay
· ?ano?oeoo?ecaoeey oe?iu (aeciana) – auaiae i?aaei?eyoey ec oeiainiaiai
e?ecena ca n/ao ?aeiaeeie?eiaiauo oaoiieiaee eee ia?aciaaiea no?oeoo?,
ninoiyueo ec aecian – aaeeieoe (no?oeoo?a i?aaei?eyoey, i?aaeiieaaathuay
iaiiaeaiea eiiiaaoeee i?iaeoeoa eee ?ai?aaiecaoeee i?aaei?eyoey.
eiiiaaoeey naycaia n oeo/oaieai aeciana ca n/ao oaoiieiaee, a
?ano?oeoo?ecaoeey – ca n/ao ia?aciaaiey iiauo th?eaee/aneeo eeoe)
· niiaoeey (icaei?iaeaiea) – i?ioeaaeo?a, eiaaea nianoaaiieeii
i?aaei?eyoey, e?aaeeoi?ii eee ae?oaei eeoeii ieacuaaaony oeiainiaay
iiiiuue a aeayoaeueiinoe i?aaei?eyoey, niinianoaothuay iieo/aieth
aeiiieieoaeueiie i?eauee. iniiaiay iniaaiiinoue ainioaiiaeoaeueiuo
i?ioeaaeo? – i?iaeieaeaiea aeayoaeueiinoe i?aaei?eyoey.
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00040000002D01010004000000F00100000300000000002. Eeeaeaeaoeeiiiay
· aeia?iaieueiay – inouanoaeyaony iiae eiio?ieai e?aaeeoi?ia
· i?eioaeeoaeueiay – inouanoaeyaony ii ?aoaieth a?aeo?aaeiiai noaea
Noaaeee aeeciaiiiai oeeeea oe?iu:
1. aicieeiiaaiea
2. noaiiaeaiea
3. iiaeuai
4. aunoay oi/ea iiaeuaia
5. niaae
6. i?ae?auaiea aeayoaeueiinoe
I?e aioee?eceniii oi?aaeaiee:
1 – eiieo?aioii niiniaiay oe?ia
2 – ninoiyoaeueiay oe?ia
3 – aaie?io
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2.
3. Anee ?aoaiea i i?iaaaeaiee niiaoeee auiineo a?aeo?aaeiue noae ii
o?aaiaaieth e?aaeeoi?ia
Ii?aaeaeaiea oeaeaniia?aciinoe i?iaaaeaiey niiaoeee: i?e i?aae?ieaaaaiie
niiaoeee i?aaei?eyoey iaiaoiaeeii oaaaeeony a ?aaeueiie iieueca
(icaei?iaeaiee) ca n/ao niiaoeee, iniauea cia/aiea eiatho
eiaanoeoeeiiiua aeiaeaiey. Oaeei ia?acii iioaioeoeeaeueiiio eiaanoi?o
ioaeii noi?ioee?iaaoue i?inueao i niiaoeee oaeei ia?acii, /oi au ii aue
oaaaeaeai a ia?niaooeaa i?eauee (aeciana). Ii?aaeaeaiea caaea/ e
iai?aaeaiey inouanoaeaiey niiaoeee: aeaaiay oeaeue ethaie niiaoeee –
oeiainiaia icaei?iaeaiea, iiyoiio aeinoaeiaiay niiaoeey eee a oiaea
i?ioeaaeo? aaie?ionoaa a eiia/iii ninoiyiee aeieaeia i?eaanoe e
i?eaueueiiio ninoi/ieth i?aaei?eyoey.
Caaea/e niiaoeee:
· Inaiaiaeaeaiea io aeieaiaiai a?aiaie
· ?anoe?aiea oicyenoaaiiie naiinoiyoaeueiinoe i?aaei?eyoey (auaeaeaiea
aeoeaia e eiina?aaoeey ianneaia)
· ?ac?aoaiea e i?aaeoi?aaeaeaiea aiciiaeiuo eiioeeeoia o/anoieeia
oicyenoaothuaai noauaeoa (iioeiaeueiia aeaeaiea aeoeee ia aeiee)
A caaeneiinoe io ianooaaia e?ecena niiaoeeth oneiaii aeaeyo ia aeaa
oeia:
· Niiaoeey, iai?aaeaiiay ia ?aoeiaine?iaaiea aai aeieaa
· Niiaoeey, iai?aaeaiiay ia aai ?ano?oeoo?ecaoeeth
Iniiaiua ?acaeaeu aecian-ieaia:
1. Iauea naaaeaiey i i?aaei?eyoee
2. Ioeaiea e?eceniiai ninoiyiey
3. Iainiiaaiea eiioeaioeee e oi?iu niiaoeee i?aaei?eyoey
4. Nenoaia oeiainiauo ia?ii?eyoee ii niiaoeee
5. Iaeeaeaaiua ?acoeueoaou niiaoeee
Iinea ?anniio?aiey aecian-ieaia e ?ann/aoa aai yooaeoeaiinoe, ana
caeioa?aniaaiiua eeoea ooaa?aeaeatho aai e aecian ieai ?aaeecoaony: i?e
aeinoaeaaiie niiaoeee a n?iee, ia onoaiaaeeaaaiua a?aeo?aaeiui noaeii, e
i?e noaeaaiie niiaoeee – a n?iee, ii?aaeaeyaiua a?aeo?aaeiui noaeii (12
ianyoeaa – ia?aiia/aeueiue n?ie e i?e iaiaoiaeeiinoe aua 6 ianyoeaa).
Oi?iu niiaoeee:
1. Iai?aaeaia ia ?ai?aaiecaoeeth aeieaa aac eciaiaiee th?eaee/aneiai
eeoea
2. Iai?aaeaia ia ?ai?aaiecaoeeth i?aaei?eyoey n eciaiaieai
th?eaee/aneiai eeoea
Iiaaoaiea aeieaa ca n/ao:
· Athaeaeaoa
· Aaieianeiai e?aaeeoa
· Ia?aaiaea aeieaa ia ae?oaia th?eaee/aneia eeoei
· Auione iaeeaaoeee
I?iaiice?iaaiea. Ninoiyiea aaie?ionoaa.
A i?iiuoeaiiinoe aii?in i?iaiice?iaaieay aaie?ionoaa aia?aua aue
?anniio?ai e iao/ii ?anniio?ai aia?eeaineei enneaaeiaaoaeai Aeueoiaiii.
Ii aaneaaeiaae 66 i?aaei?eyoee n 1946-65 aa. e i?iaiaeece?iaae 22
aiaeeoe/ineeo eiyooeoeeaioa ia o?iaia iee?iyeiiiieee. Ec ieo ii aua?ae 5
/anoi ano?a/athueony. 50% i?aaei?eyoee inoaeenue onoie/eauie e 50%
iaiie?ioeeenue – oi/ii ii aai i?iaiico. Ia iniiaa enneaaeiaaiey ii auaae
oi?ioeo iyoeoaeoi?iiai aiaeeca, eioi?ay yaeyaony aaeeinoaaiiie aei
naaiaeiaoiaai aeiy. Oi?ioea:
Z=3.3 x X1 + 1.0 x X2 + 0.6 x X3 + 1.4 x X4 + 1.2 x X5
X1 = I?eaueue aei auieaou iaeiaia / Sum A
X2 = Au?o/ea aei ?aaeecaoeee / Sum A
X3 = Nianoaaiiue eaieoae (?uii/iay ioeaiea) / i?eaea/aiiue eaieoae
X4 = ?aeiaanoe?iaaiiay i?eaueue / Sum A
X5 = Nianoaaiua iai?ioiua n?aaenoaa (iauai i?iaeaae) / Sum A
O?aeoiaea:
(0,0;1,8) -aa?iyoiinoue aaie?ionoaa aaeeea
(1,8;2,7)- aa?iyoiinoue aaie?ioioaa n?aaeiyy
(2,7;3,0) – aaie?ionoai aiciiaeii i?e ii?aaeaeaiiuo aanoiyoaeuenoaao
(3,0; aane.) – aa?iyoiinoue aaie?ionoaa iaea
K1 = o?iaaiue aeioiaeiinoe aeoeaa
K2 = iai?a/eaaaiinoue aeoeaa
K3 = eiyooeoeeaioa niioiioaiey nianoaaiiiai e caaiiiai eaieoaea
K4 = o?iaaiue ?aioaaaeueiinoe eaieoaea
K5 = ?aai/ee eaieoae
Iaoiaeeea ii?aaeaeaiey oeiainiaie onoie/eainoe iaieaoaaeaniiniaiiai
i?aaei?eyoey (ioeaii/iay iaoiaeeea aeey i?iaaaeaiey i?ioeaaeo?u
aaie?ionoaa-iaaethaeaiey)
Iaoiaeeea auea iienaia iinoaiiaeaieai iiia? 498 “i iaioi?uo ia?ao ii
?aaeecaoeee caeiiiaeaoaeuenoaa i ianinoiyoaeueiinoe”.
Noaiaiue n?i/iinoe iieaou aeoeaia e ianneaia:
A1 – iaeaieaa eeeaeaeiua aeoeau
I1 – iaeaieaa n?i/iua iaycaoaeuenoaa
A2 – auno?i ?aaeecoaiua aeoeau
I2 – e?aoein?i/iua ianneau
A3 – iaaeeaiii ?aaeecoaiua aeoeau
I3 – aeieain?i/iua ianneau
A4 – o?oaeii ?aaeecoaiua aeoeau
I4 – iinoiyiiua ianneau
E1 = ( A1 + A2 + A3 ) / ( I1 + I2 ) => 2,0 – iauay iaania/aiiinoue
i?aaei?eyoey iai?ioiuie n?aaenoaaie aeey aaaeaiey oicyenoaaiiie
aeayoaeueiinoe
E2 = ( I4 – A4 ) / ( A1 + A2 + A3 ) => 0,1 – iaania/aiiinoue nianoaaiuie
n?aaenoaaie, iaiaoiaeeiua aeey aai oeiainiaie onoie/eainoe
– i?aaei?eyoea ia ieaoaaeiiniiniaiia, anee E1 e E2 – ia aoiaeyo a
onoaiiaeaiiua ?aiee
– i?aaei?eyoea oneiaii ia ieaoaaeiiniiniaiia (aeieacuaaaony
iaieaoaaeaniiniaiinoue aeieacuaaaony n i?eaea/aieai eiyooeoeeaioa
ainnoaiiaeaiey E3), anee E1 eee E2 auoiaeyo ca ?aiee
– i?aaei?eyoea ieaoaaeaniiniaiia
E3 = (E1o+(n/T) x (E1o-E1n)) / 2
K1o – oaeoe/aneia cia/aiea eiyooeoeeaioa
E1i – cia/aiea E1 ia ia/aei io/aoiiai ia?eiaea
n – ?anniao?eaaaiue ia?eiae a ianyoeao
Onoie/eainoue i?aaei?eyoey a oneiaeyo iaii?aaeaeaiiinoe iaiaoiaeeii
?anniio?aoue cia/aiea E3 a ioaeaeueiii ia?eiaea:
Anee n=6 i?e E3>1, oi i?aaei?eyoea eiaao ?aaeueiue oain ainnoaiiaeoue
ieaoaaeaniiniaiinoue.
Anee n=3 i?e E3>1, oi i?aaei?eyoea eiaao ?aaeueiue oain ia oo?aoeoue
ieaoaaeaniiniaiinoue, anee E3
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