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Формы и методы научного предвидения

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21

Niaea?aeaiea

Aaaaeaiea 3

1. Iaoiaeu e n?aaenoaa iiciaiey aoaeouaai 5

2. Oain e ii?yaeie (neia?aaoe/aneee iiaeoiae) 10

3. “?uii/iay” eioa?i?aoaoeey 16

Caeeth/aiea 21

Nienie eniieueciaaiiie eeoa?aoo?u 24

Aaaaeaiea

Ethaia aeeaia nouanoai iaeoaao a iinoiyiii iaiythuaeny n?aaea e
auioaeaeaii i?eniinaaeeaaoueny e iae, /oiau auaeeoue e inoaaeoue iinea
naay iioiinoai. Iau/ii caaea/a auaeeaaiey aeaea ?aaeecoaony /a?ac
einoeieo, eioi?ue yaeyaony oeaeinoiui, a?iaeaeaiiui ?eoie/ii
i?aaieciaaiiui, auaiaeiui aeaeo, a ia eiaeeaeaeo iiaaaeaiea. I/aaeaeii,
/oi a ai?ueaa ca nouanoaiaaiea iaeieo oieueei a?iaeaeaiiuo einoeieoia
iaei, iineieueeo ?aaeoeey aeeaioiiai aeieaeia ia/eiaoueny, eee, ii
iaiueoae ia?a, iiaeaioiaeyoueny ?aiueoa, /ai aicieeaao neooaoeey,
eioi?ie aaeaeaaoia ?aaeoeey, e?iia oiai, iaeanoue neooaoeee ai?acaei
oe?a, /oiau auoue ioaa/aiiie einoeieoaie. Caeanue, aoaeao oianoii,
aniiiieoue i oaeii aaaeiii ineoioeceieiae/aneii naienoaa aeeaiai eae
iaiyoue.

O?aaeeoeeiiai acaeyae ia iaiyoue eae ia ooieoeeth, ia?auaiioth a
i?ioeia. Iaeiaei, a ianoiyuaa a?aiy ana aieueoa enneaaeiaaoaeae
neeiiyaony e ?anniio?aieth iaiyoe eae ooieoeee, ia?auaiiie a aoaeouaa.
No?oeoo?a iaiyoe, iicaieythuay inouanoaeyoue aa?iyoiinoiia
i?iaiice?iaaiea, iiae?iaiaa iienaia a ?aaioa Oaeaaiaa?aa [1]. Iaee/ea o
/aeiaaea auniei?acaeoie iaiyoe ii n?aaiaieth n ae?oaeie nouanoaaie,
einaaiii iiaeoaa?aeaeaao, /oi o /aeiaaea ionoonoaotho eee iaaeinoaoi/ii
?acaeou einoeieou, oi anoue iaiyoue eiiiaine?iaaea einoeieo.

Oieueei o /aeiaaea ec anao aeeauo nouanoa, i?aaeainoeuaiea aoaeouaai
i?eia?aei ea/anoaaiii iiaua, auniei?acaeoua oi?iu eae a i?aeoe/aneii
inaiaiee, oae e a oai?aoe/aneii iniuneaiee ie?oaeathuaai ie?a. Oi?iu
i?aaeainoeuaiey aoaeouaai o ethaeae i?ioee aeieaee iooue a naiai
?acaeoee io iaeaiuo i?i?i/anoa aei iao/iiai i?iaiice?iaaiey. Eioa?an e
aoaeouaio iauyniyaony oai iauaeoeaiui ianoiyoaeuenoaii, /oi /aeiaaeo
i?aaie/anee i?enoue oeaeaniia?aciay aeayoaeueiinoue, aa iuneaiiia
i?iaeieaeaiea, niaeaniaaiea oeaeae e n?aaenoa eo aeinoeaeaiey,
iaeeaeaiea eae iaiin?aaenoaaiiuo ?acoeueoaoia, oae e aieaa ioaeaeaiiuo
iineaaenoaee naieo aeaenoaee.

A ianoiyuaa a?aiy /aeiaa/anoai ?aniieaaaao, oioy e ia niaa?oaiiuie, ii
aaeaeaaoiuie iao/iuie iaoiaeaie e n?aaenoaaie iiciaiey enoi?e/aneeo
ia?niaeoea /aeiaa/anoaa. Ciaiey i aoaeouai ii ia?a oaeaeaiey io
ianoiyuaai noaiiayony ana iaiaa eiie?aoiuie e oi/iuie, ana aieaa iaueie,
i?aaeiieiaeeoaeueiuie, eae e ciaiey i aeaeaeii i?ioeii /aeiaa/anoaa.
I?aaeainoeuaiea aoaeouaai iniaaiii iaiaoiaeeii aeey ?acoiiie
yeiiiie/aneie e oicyenoaaiiie aeayoaeueiinoe /aeiaa/aneiai iauanoaa,
ie?oaeathuee ie? noaaeo ia?aae iaie oeaeue ?yae ai?acaei aieaa neiaeiuo
i?iaeai ii n?aaiaieth n ie?ii aeeaioiuo. Oae aeeaiacii yeieiae/aneeo
iianiinoae iiaouee i?eaanoe e caeaoo oeeaeeecaoeee, i/aiue oe?ie.

I?aaeaeaeaoue iiaeii eeoue oai, aaea anoue ii?yaeie, iauaeoeaiay eiaeea,
noaa/aiiay noauaeoii i?aaeaeaeaiey [2.323]. Iaeiaei, anoue oain
(iaoii?yaei/aiiinoue), i?aiyonoaothuay iiieiaieth ie?a, a
neaaeiaaoaeueii, e i?aaeaeaeaieth. Acaeiiioiioaiea ii?yaeea e oaina
yaeyaony oeaio?aeueiie i?iaeaiie neia?aaoeee, iauaeo eioi?ie – yoi
i?ioeannu naiii?aaiecaoeee a ioe?uouo nenoaiao oece/aneeo, oeie/aneeo,
aeieiae/aneeo e ae?. i?e?iaeu. A nayce n yoei neia?aaoe/aneee iiaeoiae
eioa?anii aoaeao i?eiaieoue e i?iaeaia i?aaeaeaeaiey.

1. Iaoiaeu e n?aaenoaa iiciaiey aoaeouaai

Aiciiaeiinoe e iaoaieciu i?aaeaeaeaiey nouanoaaiii eciaiythony e
?acaeaathony. I?aaeaeaeaiea eiaao iiiaeanoai iiaeeoeeaoeee, iai?eia?,
i?aae/oanoaea, naienoaaiiia aeeaiio nouanoao. I?aaeaeaeaiea aunooiaao e
eae i?aeoaaaeuaaiea – neiaeiia i?aaeainoeuaiea, eioi?ia inouanoaeyaony
oaea eioaeeaeooaeueiuie iaoaieciaie ineoeee e iniiaaii ia aeeciaiiii
ee/iii iiuoa, au?aaeaynue a oi?ia ?aciuoeaiee i aoaeouai.

“Iao/iia i?aaeaeaeaiea – yoi yiie?e/anee e oai?aoe/anee iainiiaaiiia
i?aaeiieiaeaiea i aoaeouai ninoiyiee yaeaiee i?e?iaeu, iauanoa e
aeooiaiuo i?ioeannia, iaecaanoiuo iuia, ii iiaeaeathueony auyaeaieth. A
i?aeoe/aneie aeayoaeueiinoe iao/iia i?aaeaeaeaiea inouanoaeyaony a
oi?iao i?iaiice?iaaiey e i?aaeneacaiey. …Iiae i?iaiice?iaaieai eiatho a
aeaeo niaoeeaeueiia iao/iia enneaaeiaaiea ia?niaeoea ?acaeoey
eaeiai-eeai yaeaiey. I?aaeneacaiea – yoi eieaeeciaaiiia ai a?aiaie e
i?ino?ainoaa eiie?aoiia i?aaeaeaeaiea, iai?eia?, nieia/iiai caoiaiey,
iiaiaeu ia caao?a eee iiaaaeaiey i?ioeaieea ai a?aiy aiaiiuo aeaenoaee,
aeeieiiaoe/aneeo aeoeee e o. i.” [2.324]. Aeaiiia caeanue ii?aaeaeaiea
i?aaeneacaiey eae iaeiie ec oi?i iao/iiai i?aaeaeaeaiey, i?oeai?a/eo
iiiyoeth aeaiiiio a “E?aoeie oeeinioneie yioeeeeiiaaeee”, oai
i?aaeneacaiea yaeyaony iaeiie ec oi?i yeno?anaini?iiai aini?eyoey [3].
Oai iiae/a?eeaaaony, /oi i?aaeneacaiea neaaeoao ioee/aoue io
i?aaeaeaeaiey eae iaeio ec oi?i iao/iiai iiciaiey, aunooiathuaai oaea a
ea/anoaa i?iaiice?iaaiey oao eee eiuo yaeaiee e i?ioeannia. Oai aea,
“I?aaeaeaeaiea a aieueoae noaiaie, /ai i?aaeneacaiea, iniiauaaaony ia
iaiauaiee oai?aoe/aneeo e yenia?aiaioaeueiuo aeaiiuo, ia o/aoa
caeiiiia?iinoae e naycae yaeaiee, iii oaea aunooiaao a ea/anoaa
?ani?ino?aiaiey iiciaiiiai ia iaeanoue aua iaiiciaiiiai”.

Caeanue iiaeii caeeth/eoue, /oi i?iaiice?iaaiea aunooiaao a aaeeinoaaiii
cia/eiie oi?ia iao/iiai i?aaeaeaeaiey, a i?aaeneacaiea o?ainoi?ie?oaony
e ana iaiueoa annioeee?oaony n iao/iui i?aaeaeaeaiea.

A enneaaeiaaiee aoaeouaai i?eiaiyaony iaoe?iue e iiiaiia?aciue a?naiae
iao/iuo iaoiaeia, niaoeeaeueiuo iaoiaeee, eiae/aneeo e oaoie/aneeo
n?aaenoa iiciaiey. Iaeiaei iniiaiua iaoiaeu i?iaiice?iaaiey naiaeyony e
neaaeothuei (inoaeueiua aea yaeythony eo ?acee/iuie ni/aoaieyie e
aa?eaoeeyie): yeno?aiieyoeey; enoi?e/aneay aiaeiaey; iiaeaee?iaaiea;
noeaia?ee aoaeouaai; yenia?oiua ioeaiee. Ii yoe iaoiaeu iiaeii aua
iaiaueoue aei o?ao iniiaiuo niiniaia i?iaiice?iaaiey: yeno?aiieyoeey,
iiaeaee?iaaiea e yenia?oeca. Ii, e oaeay eeanneoeeaoeey oneiaia, oae eae
i?iaiinoe/aneea iiaeaee i?aaeiieaaatho yeno?aiieyoeeth e yenia?oiua
ioeaiee, iineaaeiea i?aaenoaaeytho eoiae yeno?aiieyoeee e
iiaeaee?iaaiey e oae aeaeaa.

?anniio?ei i?eaaaeaiiua auoa iaoiaeu. Eaaeaeue ec yoeo iaoiaeia
i?aaeainoeuaiey aoaeouaai eiaao naie aeinoieinoaa e iaaeinoaoee.
Oi/iinoue yeno?aiieyoeee, iai?eia?, ?acei oauaaao ii ia?a i?iaeaeaeaiey
a aoaeouaa, eioi?ia ieeae ia iiaeao auoue i?inoui eiee/anoaaiiui
i?iaeieaeaieai ianoiyuaai. Aanueia ia?aie/aiia i?eiaieiinoue e
i?aaeaeaeaieth aoaeouaai enoi?e/aneie aiaeiaee, eai aoaeouaa ieeae ia
iiaeao a naieo iniiaiuo /a?oao naanoenue e iiaoi?aieth i?ioeiai. Yoi
i?ae?anii iiieiae aua Aaaaeue, eioi?ue ino?ioiii ienae: “I?aaeoaeyi,
ainoaea?noaaiiui ethaeyi e ia?iaeai n aaaeiinoueth niaaootho ecaeaeaoue
iio/aiey ec iiuoa enoi?ee. Ii iiuo e enoi?ey o/ao, /oi ia?iaeu e
i?aaeoaeuenoaa ieeiaaea ie/aio ia iao/aeenue ec enoi?ee e ia
aeaenoaiaaee niaeanii iio/aieyi, eioi?ua iiaeii auei au ecaea/ue ec iaa.
A eaaeaeoth yiioo ieacuaathony oaeea iniaua ianoiyoaeuenoaa, eaaeaeay
yiioa yaeyaony ia noieueei eiaeeaeaeoaeueiui ninoiyieai, /oi a yoo
yiioo iaiaoiaeeii e aiciiaeii i?eieiaoue eeoue oaeea ?aoaiey, eioi?ua
auoaeatho ec naiiai yoiai ninoiyiey” [4.7-8].

Yenia?oiua ioeaiee yaeythony aeiaieueii oaee iaaeaaeiui iaoiaeii
i?iaiice?iaaiey i?e oneiaee, /oi iia iie?aaony ia aa?iua oai?aoe/aneea
i?aaenoaaeaiey, ia iauaeoa, eniieuecoao ?acoeueoaou, iieo/aiiua n
iiiiuueth ae?oaeo iaoiaeia, e aeaao yoei ?acoeueoaoai i?aaeeueioth
eioa?i?aoaoeeth.

A eeoa?aoo?iuo enoi/ieeao iiiyoea iiaeaee o?aeooaony aanueia oe?iei.
Yoei oa?ieiii iacuaatho oaeea iiiyoey, eae iaoaiaoe/aneia iienaiea
i?ioeanna eee iauaeoa, aeai?eoie/aneia iienaiea iauaeoa, oi?ioea,
ii?aaeaeythuay caeii ooieoeeiie?iaaiey, a?aoe/aneia i?aaenoaaeaiea
iauaeoa (i?ioeanna) a aeaea a?aoa eee aeie-noaiu, e?eaay,
i?aaenoaaeythuay i?ioeann, e ?yae ae?oaeo oi?i e iiiyoee. A oa?ieiieiaee
i?iaiinoeee [5] yoi iiiyoea oaea. “I?iaiinoe/aneay iiaeaeue – iiaeaeue
iauaeoa i?iaiice?iaaiey, enneaaeiaaiea eioi?ie iicaieyao iieo/eoue
eioi?iaoeeth i aiciiaeiuo ninoiyieyo iauaeoa a aoaeouai e (eee) iooyo
aeinoeaeaiey yoeo ninoiyiee”. Iaeiaei, iiaeaee?iaaiea neiaeiuo iauaeoia
i/aiue o?oaeiaieia ia?ii?eyoea, o?aaothuaa na?ueaciuo enneaaeiaaiee, eae
i?aaeei a oa/aiea aeinoaoi/ii aeieaiai ia?eiaea a?aiaie e
nenoaiaoe/aneoth ei??aeoe?iaeo iiaeaee, /anoi niaea?aeauae iiiaea
iieacaoaee.

Iaienaiea noeaia?ey – yoi iaoiae, eioi?ue iuoaaony onoaiiaeoue
eiae/aneoth iineaaeiaaoaeueiinoue niauoee, /oiau iieacaoue, eae, enoiaey
ec nouanoaothuae neooaoeee, iiaeao oaa ca oaaii ?acaa?ouaaoueny aoaeouaa
ninoiyiea. Yoi ii?aaeaeaiea aeae ecaanoiue i?iaiiceno NOA A. Eai. Ii
nooe, yoio iaoiae aeecie e iaoiaeo yenia?oiuo ioeaiie, ii i?e yoii
ni/aoaao a naaa nenoaiiue iiaeoiae, i?enouee iiaeaee?iaaieth. A oi aea
a?aiy noeaia?iue iaoiae eiaao iaeioi?ia noiaenoai ni ano?a/aiiui iiie a
eeoa?aoo?a iiiyoeai i?aaeneacaiey, eae aeinoiaa?iia, iniiaaiiia ia
eiae/aneie iineaaeiaaoaeueiinoe noaeaeaiea i ninoiyiee eaeiai-eeai
iauaeoa (i?ioeanna eee yaeaiey) a aoaeouai [6.33].

A caaeneiinoe io oiai, eaeay caaea/a ?aoaaony a ia?aoth i/a?aaeue,
?acee/atho aeaa aeaea i?iaiice?iaaiey: enneaaeiaaoaeueneia (iieneiaia)
e ii?iaoeaiia. Oi?ie?iaaiea i?iaiica iauaeoeaii nouanoaothueo
oaiaeaioeee ?acaeoey ia iniiaa aiaeeca enoi?e/aneeo oaiaeaioeee
iacuaaaony enneaaeiaaoaeueneei i?iaiice?iaaieai. Yoio aeae
i?iaiice?iaaiey iniiaai ia eniieueciaaiee i?eioeeia eia?oeeiiiinoe
?acaeoey, i?e eioi?ii i?eaioaoeey i?iaiica ai a?aiaie i?ienoiaeeo ii
noaia “io ianoiyuaai – e aoaeouaio”. Enneaaeiaaoaeueneee i?iaiic – yoi
ea?oeia ninoiyiey iauaeoa i?iaiica a ii?aaeaeaiiue iiiaio aoaeouaai,
iieo/aiiay a ?acoeueoaoa ?anniio?aiey i?ioeanna ?acaeoey eae aeaeaeaiey
ii eia?oeee io ianoiyuaai a?aiaie aei ai?eciioa i?iaiica.
I?iaiice?iaaiea oaiaeaioeee ?acaeoey iauaeoa i?iaiica, eioi?ua aeieaeiu
iaania/eaaoue aeinoeaeaiea a onoaiiaeaiiue iiiaio aoaeouaai
ii?aaeaeaiiuo nioeeaeueii-iieeoe/aneeo, yeiiiie/aneeo e ae?oaeo oeaeae,
iacuaaaony ii?iaoeaiui. A yoii neo/aa i?eaioaoeey i?iaiica ai a?aiaie
i?ienoiaeeo ii noaia “io aoaeouaai – e ianoiyuaio”.

Oeiiaay iaoiaeeea i?iaiice?iaaiey niaea?aeeo neaaeothuea iniiaiua yoaiu
enneaaeiaaiey: i?aaei?iaiiciay i?eaioaoeey (ii?aaeaeaiea iauaeoa,
i?aaeiaoa, i?iaeaiu, oeae, caaea/, a?aiaie oi?aaeaeaiey, ?aai/eo
aeiioac, iaoiaeia, no?oeoo?u e i?aaiecaoeee enneaaeiaaiey); i?iaiiciue
oii (nai? aeaiiuo, aeeythueo ia ?acaeoea iauaeoa, ii niaaeiui,
iai?ioeeueiui io?aneyi i?iaiice?iaaiey); enoiaeiay iiaeaeue, oi anoue
nenoaia iieacaoaeae, ia?aiao?ia, ioia?aaeathuay oa?aeoa? e no?oeoo?o
iauaeoa; iieneiaue i?iaiic (i?iaeoeey a aoaeouaa enoiaeiie iiaeaee ii
iaaethaeaaiie oaiaeaioeee n o/aoii oaeoi?ia i?iaiiciiai oiia, /oiau
auyaeoue ia?niaeoeaiua i?iaeaiu); ii?iaoeaiue i?iaiic (i?iaeoeey a
aoaeouaa enoiaeiie iiaeaee a niioaaonoaee n caaeaiiuie oeaeyie e ii?iaie
ii caaeaiiui e?eoa?eyi); ioeaiee noaiaie aeinoiaa?iinoe e ooi/iaiea
i?iaiinoe/aneeo iiaeaeae, iau/ii ii?inii yenia?oia; au?aaioea
?aeiiaiaeaoeee aeey iioeiecaoeee ?aoaiee ia iniiaa i?iaiinoe/aneeo
iiaeaeae.

I iaoiaeao i?iaiice?iaaiey iiaeii ?anneacaoue aieaa iiae?iaii, i?eaiaey
eiie?aoioth iaoiaeieiaeth, iniaaiiinoe i?aaiecaoeee i?iaiiciie ?aaiou e
oae aeaeaa. Iaeiaei n oi/ee c?aiey oeeinioee, yoi, aoaeao i?aaenoaaeyoue
iacia/eoaeueiue eioa?an. Ai?acaei aaaeiae n iaaeaeenoeeieeia?iuo
iiceoeee eco/eoue caeiiu, ii?aaeaeeoue i?e/eiu, aeaeaeouea neeu ?acaeoey
ia iniiaa eioi?uo iiaeii iieo/eoue eioi?iaoeeth i aoaeouai – yoi
iniiaiay caaea/a ieaie?iaaiey e i?iaiice?iaaiey.

2. Oain e ii?yaeie (neia?aaoe/aneee iiaeoiae)

Oeaio?aeueiie i?iaeaiie neia?aaoeee yaeyaony acaeiiioiioaiea ii?yaeea e
oaina. Aiciiaeiu neaaeothuea ioiioaiey ii?yaeea e oaina a ?acee/iuo
nenoaiao: 3) ii?yaeie ia?aoiaeeo a oain; 2) oain – a ii?yaeie; 3)
ii?yaeie – a iiaue ii?yaeie; 4) oain – a iiaue oain; 5) ni/aoaiea oaina
e ii?yaeea.

Neia?aaoe/aneee iiaeoiae – oi?ioee?iaea oieaa?naeueiuo caeiiia,
i?eiaieiuo e neiaeiui nenoaiai. A yoie iaeanoe eco/athony nenoaiu,
eioi?ua iiaoo iooai naiii?aaiecaoeee ia?aciauaaoue i?ino?ainoaaiiua,
a?aiaiiua eee ooieoeeiiaeueiua no?oeoo?u. A neia?aaoeea
nin?aaeioa/eaaaony aieiaiea ia ea/anoaaiiuo iae?ineiie/aneeo eciaiaieyo,
eioi?ua nii?iaiaeaeathony iiyaeaieai iiauo no?oeoo? eee ooieoeee.
Ia?aie/aiea eiee/anoaaiiuie iae?ineiie/aneeie eciaiaieyie – oeaia,
eioi?oth i?eoiaeeony ieaoeoue, /oiau iaeoe iauea i?eioeeiu.
I?aaeiieaaaaony, /oi ia ?anniao?eaaaioth nenoaio iaaeeiaeaiu aiaoiea
nayce, oaeea, eae aiieia ii?aaeaeaiiia eiee/anoai yia?aee, iiaeaiaeeiie
e nenoaia, oi anoue iia aeenneiaoeaiay. I?e eciaiaiee yoiai
oi?aaeythuaai ia?aiao?a iiaeao aicieeiooue iaonoie/eainoue, e nenoaia
ia?aoiaeeo a iiaia ninoiyiea.

A neia?aaoeea iieacaii, /oi a oaeie oi/ea iioa?e onoie/eainoe
iaonoie/eauie noaiiayony, aiiaua aiai?y, iaaieueoia /enei eieeaeoeaiuo
iiae, eioi?ua neoaeao ia?aiao?aie ii?yaeea, iienuaathueie
iae?ineiie/aneea ia?aiaiiua, oi anoue ia?aiao?u ii?yaeea, ii?aaeaeytho
iiaaaeaiea iee?ineiie/aneeo /anoae nenoaiu a neeo i?eioeeia iiae/eiaiey.
Oae aicieeiiaaiea ia?aiao?ia ii?yaeea e eo niiniaiinoue iiae/eiyoue
iicaieytho nenoaia iaoiaeeoue naith no?oeoo?o. I?e eciaiaiee
oi?aaeythueo ia?aiao?ia a oe?ieii aeeaiaciia nenoaiu iiaoo i?ioiaeeoue
/a?ac ea?a?oeth iaonoie/eainoae e nii?iaiaeaeathueo eo no?oeoo?. Iauay
noaia ?acaeoey neiaeiuo naiii?aaiecothueony no?oeoo? i?eaaaeaia ia ?en.
1.

?en. 1 Iauay noaia ?acaeoey neiaeiuo naiii?aaiecothueony no?oeoo?.

Ethaay iaoa?eaeueiay nenoaia no?aieony e ia?aoiaeo io iaiaa onoie/eaiai
ninoiyiey e aieaa onoie/eaiio ninoiyieth e, a eiia/iii n/aoa, e
aeinoeaeaieth iaeneiaeueiie onoie/eainoe (i?e aeaiiuo oneiaeyo)
ninoiyiey. Yoio iiene i?iyaeyaony a aeaoo i?ioeaiiieiaeiuo oaiaeaioeeyo:
1) no?aieaiea e iaeneiaeueii iaoii?yaei/aiiiio ninoiyieth (oaino) a
caieioouo (eciee?iaaiiuo io aiaoieo aicaeaenoaee) nenoaiao; e 2)
no?aieaiea e oai eee eiui oi?iai oii?yaei/aiiinoe (i?e ii?aaeaeaiiuo
oneiaeyo) a ioe?uouo nenoaiao [7].

Niaeanii nia?aiaiiui iao/iui aeaiiui, aeey iaoae Iaoaaaeaeoeee, nei?aa
anaai, oa?aeoa?ai aoi?ie noeaia?ee yaiethoeee, oi anoue no?aieaiea
ii?yaeeo. Oae, n?aaeiyy ieioiinoue aauanoaa e iieae a iaoae
Iaoaaaeaeoeea iaiueoa e?eoe/aneie (10-29 a/ni3) [8.88].

Neooaoeey, iaeiaei, ineiaeiyaony oai, /oi a?aiue iaaeaeo caieiooie e
ioe?uoie nenoaiie ia aaniethoia: n iaeiie noi?iiu, caieiooay nenoaia
iiaeao noaoue ioe?uoie aneaaenoaea ecieyoeee aa io n?aaeu.

Iiyoiio ?ino oaina iiaeao niaiyoueny aai oiaiueoaieai, a oiaiueoaiea –
?inoii. Oaeei ia?acii, eae no?aieaiea e oaino. Oae e e ii?yaeeo a ie?a
iau/iuo eeiaeiuo nenoai, ieacuaaaony, aiiaua aiai?y, iaonoie/eaui.
Eeiaeiay nenoaia ioee/aaony io iaeeiaeiuo naiei ianneaiui oa?aeoa?ii, oi
anoue ianiiniaiinoueth e naiiaeaenoaeth (niiniaiinoueth eniuouaaoue
eeoue aiaoiea aicaeaenoaey). Aaeaeo iaonoie/eainoe ethauo ia?aoiaeia io
oaina e ii?yaeeo e ia?aoii, iaeneiaeueiay onoie/eainoue iiaeao auoue
aeinoeaiooa eeoue iooai i?aiaeieaiey naiie i?ioeaiiieiaeiinoe iaaeaeo
oainii e ii?yaeeii. Aeenneiaoeaiua nenoaiu, nouanoaiaaiea eioi?uo
iiaeaea?aeeaaaony iaiaiii aauanoaa, yia?aee e eioi?iaoeee ni n?aaeie,
i?aaenoaaeytho niaie i?eia? i?aiaeieaiey i?ioeaiiieiaeiinoe iaaeaeo
oainii e ii?yaeeii iooai eo ni/aoaiey. Aeenneiaoeaiay nenoaia ia oieueei
aicieeaao, ii e nouanoaoao ca n/ao iiaeiuaiey ii?yaeea ec n?aaeu (oae
neacaoue, “ieoaaony” ii?yaeeii) e, neaaeiaaoaeueii, oai oaina.

Oaeei ia?acii, neioac ii?yaeea e oaina, inouanoaeyaiue aeenneiaoeaiie
nenoaiie ninoieo a oii, /oi oaia?ue oii?yaei/aiiay no?oeoo?a ia iiaeao
nouanoaiaaoue aac iaoii?yaei/aiiie, ii?yaeie aac oaina. Ii?yaeie e oain,
aianoi oiai /oiau eneeth/aoue ae?oa ae?oaa, eae yoi iaaethaeaaony a
neo/aa “?aaiiaaniuo” nenoai, oaia?ue ieacuaathony acaeiinaycaiiuie –
aeiiieiytho ae?oa ae?oaa oae, /oi ie ii?yaeie ia iiaeao nouanoaiaaoue
aac ii?iaeaeathuaai aai ii?yaeea: “oain e ii?yaeie ieacaeenue naycaiiuie
niaa?oaiii iaiaeeaeaiiui ia?acii” [9.29].

?acaeoea anoue ?ino noaiaie neioaca ii?yaeea e oaina, iaoneiaeaiiue
no?aieaieai e iaeneiaeueiie onoie/eainoe. I/aaeaeii, /oi iiiyoea
?acaeoey a yoii niunea eiaao oieaa?naeueiue oa?aeoa?, aoaeo/e iaeeiaeiai
i?eiaieii eae a noa?a iai?aaie/aneeo, oae e aeieiae/aneeo e nioeeaeueiuo
yaeaiee. Iauiinoue yoiai iiiyoey iauyniyaony oai, /oi a aai ii?aaeaeaiee
eniieueciaaiu i?aaenoaaeaiey i ii?yaeea, oaina e onoie/eainoe,
oieaa?naeueiinoue eioi?uo ia iiaeeaaeeo niiiaieth.

Einiieiae/aneea i?aaenoaaeaiey i i?ioeanna ?acaeoey Anaeaiiie, ei?ioei
iiaoo auoue naaaeaiu e neaaeothuei iieiaeaieyi [10].

1. Iu aeeaai a aunieii?aaieciaaiiii ?acaeaathuainy ie?a, aieaa oiai, aia
?acaeoey oaeie ie? nouanoaiaaoue ia iiaeao.

2. ?acaeoea Anaeaiiie iineo iai?aaeaiiue oa?aeoa? – io enoiaeiiai oaina
e ia?anoathuaio ii?yaeeo.

3. A iniiaa i?ioeanna ?acaeoey auyaeythony aeaa i?ioeaiiieiaeiua
oaiaeaioeee. Ia?aay, iaciaai aa oneiaii ?ac?ooeoaeueiie, oi?ie?oaony a
?acoeueoaoa i?enouaai iaoa?ee no?aieaiey e aeinoeaeaieth ?aaiiaaniuo
ninoiyiee. A neo/aa eciee?iaaiiuo nenoai yoa oaiaeaioeey aaaeao ni
a?aiaiai e iaecaaaeiiio i?eoiaeo nenoaiu a ninoiyiea oa?iiaeeiaie/aneiai
?aaiiaaney, /oi nii?iaiaeaeaaony ?ac?ooaieai aunieie oii?yaei/aiiinoe.
Oaeia naienoai iaoa?ee iieo/eei iacaaiea naiii?aaiecaoeee.
Niceaeaoaeueiay oaiaeaioeey ainiiaenoaoao oieueei a ioe?uouo nenoaiao,
iaania/eaaaiuo i?eoieii ecaia yia?aee, aauanoaa e eioi?iaoeee.

4. Iao/iua i?aaenoaaeaiey i i?ioeanna ?acaeoey Anaeaiiie iieacuaatho.

*oi io aa ?iaeaeaiey e aei iaoeo aeiae a iae a oeaeii ainiiaenoaoao
niceaeaoaeueiay oaiaeaioeey. Ii oiaeo naiaai ?acaeoey ai Anaeaiiie
aicieeea ea?a?oey ?aciiianooaaiuo ioe?uouo nenoai io naiuo e?oiiuo,
oaeeo eae naa?o neiieaiey aaeaeoee, e aei naiuo iaeeiianooaaiuo,
iaaethaeaaiuo a iaoai iaiin?aaenoaaiiii ie?oaeaiee ia ieaiaoa Caiey.
Naia Anaeaiiay, ninoiyuay ec aoiia?iiai aauanoaa eceo/aiee (aauanoaaiiay
anaeaiiay), oaeaea iiaeao ?anniao?eaaoueny eae naiay e?oiiay ec
ecaanoiuo /aeiaa/anoao ioe?uouo nenoai. A? aiaoiyy n?aaea – oece/aneee
aaeooi.

*oi aea ii?aaeaeyao iaaethaeaaiue iinooiaoaeueiue oa?aeoa? ?acaeoey
Anaeaiiie? ?acaeoea aauanoaaiiie Anaeaiiie ii?aaeaeyaony naienoaaie
iee?iie?a, yeaiaioa?iuo /anoeoe e oece/aneeie caeiiaie, eioi?ua
oi?aaeytho eo iiaaaeaieai. Auynieeinue, /oi iinooiaoaeueiia ?acaeoea
iaaaie?a aiciiaeii i?e oneiaee, /oi a yoii ie?a nouanoaoao oaiiiai,
iacuaaaiue I. Aeyaenii “oiieie iiaeno?ieeie Anaeaiiie”. ?acoeueoao
oai?aoe/aneeo ?an/aoia ieacaeny nainaoeeiiiui [11,12]. Eciaiaiea aeaaea
iaeiie ooiaeaiaioaeueiie oece/aneie iinoiyiiie a i?aaeaeao 10-15 % a oo
eee ae?oaoth noi?iio i?eaaei au e au?iaeaeaieth Anaeaiiie, a iae ia
niiaee au ia?aciauaaoueny iniiaiua onoie/eaua no?oeoo?u – yae?a, aoiiu,
caacaeu, aaeaeoeee. Ciaeiiay iai Anaeaiiay naaiaeiyoiaai aeiy
i?aa?aoeeanue au a ia/oi iiaeiaiia “oioiiii-eaioiiiie ionouia”. Ii yoi
ia ana. E?iia aeanoeiai iaeaoa ooiaeaiaioaeueiuo iinoiyiiuo, a iiiyoea
“oiieie iiaeno?ieee” aoiaeeo oaeaea aieueoia /enei “neo/aeiuo”
ianoiyoaeuenoa, ionoonoaea eaaeaeiai ec eioi?uo inoaaeei au i?ioeann
iai?aaeaiiiai ?acaeoey ia iaeioi?ii i?iiaaeooi/iii yoaia, ia iicaieea
aicieeiooue oiio, /oi iu iaaethaeaai naaiaeiy.

“…Iniiaiua caeiiu i?e?iaeu – ooaa?aeaeaao, E. Oi?ae, – yaeythony
aa?iyoiinoiuie caeiiaie” [13.73]. E a yoii n iei niaeaniu iiiaea
ecaanoiaeoea oeceee OO a., oaeea, eae I. Ai?, Y. O?aaeeiaa?, A. Iaoee,
A. A. Aiaa?oeoiyi e ae?.

A iauai, caeanue iiaeii caeeth/eoue, /oi caeiiu i?e?iaeu ia/eiay n
iee?iie?a anoue ?acoeueoao naiii?aaiecaoeee, ?acaeoey io oaina e
ii?yaeeo, eioi?ue nii?iaiaeaeaaony oi?ie?iaaieai iiauo caeiiia i?e?iaeu
(?acoeueoao ioai?a ec aeueoa?iaoeaiuo caeiiia a niioaaonoaee n e?eoa?eai
onoie/eainoe), eioi?ua a iineaaenoaee iuoaaony iinoe/ue noauaeo
i?aaeaeaeaiey. Eioa?anii, /oi anoue eaeay, niaeanii eioi?ie Anaeaiiay
oi?ie?iaaeanue ii caeiiai i?aaeiieaaathuei iiyaeaiea
/aeiaaea-iaaethaeaoaey – aio?iiiue i?eioeei.

3. “?uii/iay” eioa?i?aoaoeey

Ia?aeaeai io ?anniio?aiey oaina e ii?yaeea, naiii?aaiecaoeee ai
Anaeaiiie e ?anniio?aieth, aiaeiae/iuo acaeiiioiioaiee a iauanoaa, eai
aunoea oi?iu i?aaiecaoeee iaoa?ee aaiaoe/anee naycaiu n iecoeie. Ana
iauanoai a oeaeii n iiiai/eneaiiuie aeaeaie /aeiaa/aneie aeayoaeueiinoe,
iieeoe/aneeie, ?aeeaeiciuie, i?ioanneiiaeueiuie eee eoeueoo?iuie
?acee/eyie ethaeae yaeythony i?eia?ii neiaeiie naiii?aaiecothuaeny
nenoaiu, aeaeaeie io ninoiyiey ?aaiiaaney.

Aaaeiaeoei yeaiaioii nioeeaeueii-yeiiiie/aneie nenoaiu iiaeii iacaaoue
/aeiaaea, yaeythuaainy noauaeoii, oi anoue ii a neia?aaoe/aneii niunea
iiaeao aunooiaoue a ea/anoaa ia?aiao?a ii?yaeea, aucuaay iaonoie/eainoue
iauanoaaiiie no?oeoo?u, oai naiui, i?aia?acoy ia oieueei aa, ii e
ie?oaeathuoth aai i?aaeiaoii-iaoa?eaeueioth iaeanoue.

Aanue a?aiaeeiciue i?ioeann naiii?aaiecaoeee iauanoaa ii?iaeaeaaony
aeoeaiinoueth ioaeaeueiuo ethaeae, eo no?aieaieyie e aeaeaieyie. Eo
“naiaiaeiie aieae”. O eaaeaeiai /aeiaaea iiiaeanoai iiaoaeeoaeueiuo
i?e/ei aeey oao eee eiuo aeaenoaee. Iu aeaeei, /oi a oaina eo aeoeaiinoe
iiaeii ?anniio?aoue ioaeaeueiua iioiee. Cia/eo, yoio oain iai?a?uaii
no?oeoo?ecoaony, e aicieeaao anoanoaaiiue aii?in i oao iaoaieciao,
eioi?ua ii?iaeaeatho yoo no?oeoo?ecaoeeth. E a iiieiaiee yoeo iaoaieciia
iiaeao iiii/ue aua iaeia eioa?i?aoaoeey, eioi?oth I. I. Iienaaa oneiaii
iacaae “?uii/iie” [14.129].

Ii nouanoao, aanue i?ioeann ?acaeoey ia oieueei iauanoaa, ii e anaai
aeeaiai ie?a iiaeii i?aaenoaaeoue naaa eae i?ioeann ooieoeeiie?iaaiey
iaeiaai “?uiea”. A iai o/anoaoao ana aeeaia – iii iai?a?uaii ecia?aoaao
iiaua oi?iu i?aaiecaoeee, iiaua aiciiaeiinoe iauaaeeiaiey (eiiia?aoeee
eee eiiia?aoeaiiai acaeiiaeaenoaey), iiaua niiniau aeaenoaey, nicaeaao e
?aaeecoao ia?aoiua nayce, oi anoue ei??aeoe?oao i?aaeea naiae
aeeciaaeayoaeueiinoe i?e eciaiaiee aiaoieo oneiaee. E oaeea eieoeeaoeau
iiiai/eneaiiu e ?aciiia?aciu, a iaae anai yoei iiiaiia?aceai oea?yo
iaoaieciu ioai?a. Iie ii ii?aaeaeaiiui i?aaeeai (eioi?ua oiaea iaiythony
ni a?aiaiai) ioae?atho oa oi?iu i?aaiecaoeee aeeaiai aauanoaa, eioi?ua a
iaeaieueoae noaiaie niioaaonoaotho aa?iiiee naaiaeiyoiaai aeiy,
“onoie/eaiio ia?aaiiaaneth”. E ana yoi a?aiaeeiciia ni/aoaiea i?ioeannia
nicaeaiey “aa?eaioia auai?a” e naieo iaoaieciia auai?a Iienaaa iacaae
“?uieii” [14.129-130].

A iauai, “?uii/iay” eioa?i?aoaoeey yoi oio aea neia?aaoe/aneee iiaeoiae,
oieueei aieaa iaaeyaeiue e ia?aie/aiiue ?anniio?aieai iauanoaa e anaai
aeeaiai ie?a. Oeaiiinoue aea yoie eioa?i?aoaoeee caeeth/aaony a
?anniio?aiee ?uiea a iau/iii yeiiiie/aneii eee aeeoaeneii niunea, eeoue,
eae i/aiue /anoiiai e niaoeeaeueiiai neo/ay oiai “?uiea”, eioi?ue
yaeyaony aaeeinoaaiiui e anoanoaaiiui n?aaenoaii niiinoaaeaiey ea/anoaa
?acee/iuo oi?i i?aaiecaoeee aeeaiai aauanoaa e eo ioa?aeiaee. Oaeei
ia?acii, ?uiie n iaeaiueeie aoeau aiana ia yaeyaony niaoeeaeueiui
ecia?aoaieai /aeiaaea. Ii anaai eeoue ?aaeecaoeey iaueo i?eioeeiia
naiii?aaiecaoeee a noa?a i?iecaiaenoaaiiie aeayoaeueiinoe ethaeae e
oi?aiaee (iaiaia). *aeiaae a naiae aeayoaeueiinoe ia iia ia
ii?aaeaeaiiii yoaia naiae enoi?ee ia eniieueciaaoue ?uii/iuo i?eioeeiia.
E aiieia aanniciaoaeueii, noeoeeii i?eniiniaee eo aeey naieo ioaeae.

Aeeaeaeoeea “?uiea” i?iyaeyaony aua e a oii, /oi ii ia i?aaenoaaeyao
niaie niaieoiiinoue canouaoeo e?eoa?eaa. Yoa nenoaia iai?a?uaii
?acaeaaaony, i?aaeea ioai?a iiiaeaony e oneiaeiythony. Iiaue yoai
yaiethoeee “?uiea naycai n aeeth/aieai a iaai /aeiaaea n aai ?acoiii,
eioi?ue aiineo, iaaeaeo i?i/ei, e iiaue yeaiaio iai?aaeneacoaiinoe –
naiaiaeo auai?a.

Iaeiaei, aeeth/aiea ?acoia a iaoaieciu “?uiea” icia/aao, a /anoiinoe,
eniieueciaaiea i?aaeaeaeaiey a i?ioeaaeo?ao naeaeoeee e ioai?a, oi anoue
a caiaia noaoe/aneeo ia?aoiuo naycae aeeiaie/aneeie. E, /oi ia iaiaa
aaaeii, – aeeth/aiea a i?ioeaaeo?u ioai?a aeieaia?aiaiiuo oeaeae
iineoaeae ?acoia. A ?acoeueoaoa ioai? i?eia?aoaao ii?aaeaeaiioth
oeaeaiai?aaeaiiinoue. Yoi ianoiyoaeuenoai /?acau/aeii ?anoe?yao
aiciiaeiinoe ioai?a, iaeiaei ie/aai ia eciaiyao ii nouanoao: a ie?a
aeeaiai inoaaony ni?aaiiaaoaeueiinoue, eiieo?aioeey ca ianoi iiae
Nieioeai, inoaaony ioai?, oieueei aieaa neiaeii i?aaieciaaiiue. “?uiie”
inoaaony “?uieii”, ii n iaeioi?ui ai?eciioii i?aaeaeaeaiey, ca eioi?ui
ana aeaoaee aiciiaeiiai ?acaeoey ii-i?aaeiaio inoathony ne?uouie. E
aeeth/aiea ?acoia a iaoaieci “?uiea” – aaaeiaeoee oaa a ?acaeoee aeeaiai
aauanoaa, a iiaeao auoue e Anaeaiiie.

A ai?eciio i?aaeaeaeaiey, eioi?ui niiniaai ?aniieaaaoue ?acoi
nia?aiaiiiai /aeiaaea, ia i/aiue-oi aeaeae, e, /oi iniaaiii aaaeii,
iaeuecy iaeeaeaoue, /oi ii caiaoii ioaeaeeony aianoa n ?acaeoeai
oaoie/aneiai i?ia?anna e eciaiaiea oneiaee aeecie ethaeae, a
neaaeiaaoaeueii, e onei?ytho oiae enoi?e/aneiai i?ioeanna. A ?acoeueoaoa
ai?eciio i?aaeaeaeaiey ai a?aiaia aioe/iuo a?aeia a?yae ee aue caiaoii
aeeaea, /ai o nia?aiaiiuo o/aiuo, eioi?ua caieiathony i?iaiice?iaaieai
eee oooo?ieiaeae.

Iaiiieiaiea iiaeiaiuo oaeoia /anoi neoaeeo enoi/ieeii iianiuo eeethcee,
iiaeiaiuo eaeaa i aiciiaeiinoe ieaiiia?iiai ?acaeoey iauanoaa,
i?eaaaeoae aeaaea e oi?ioee?iaea “caeiia” i ieaiiia?iii ?acaeoee i?e
nioeeaeecia, eee ethauo iiaeiaiuo eaeae nioeeaeueiie eiaeaia?ee, o?aaeci
?aaeecaoeee eioi?uo iu eniuoaee ia naaa. Yaiethoeey e a ia?niaeoeaa
inoaiaony iai?aaeneacoaiie.

E oai ia iaiaa cia/aiea ?acoia /aeiaaea, a oai aieaa Eieeaeoeaiiai
Eioaeeaeoa /aeiaa/anoaa a aai noaeueaao ieeae ia neaaeoao
i?aoiaiueoaoue. *aeiaaeo aeaenoaeoaeueii ia aeaii i?aaeoaaaeaoue oiae
niauoee, aeaoaee enoi?ee, ia aiai?y oaea ia iioeiaeueiii iooe ?acaeoey.
Ii ii niiniaai i?aaeaeaeaoue iianiinoe, eioi?ua iiaoo iaeeaeaoue aai a
aeeaeaeoai aoaeouai. Yoiai oaea aeinoaoi/ii, /oiau noi?ioee?iaaoue
iaeoth nenoaio cai?aoia, niiniaioth oiaiueoeoue iaaaoeaioth ?ieue
aiciiaeiuo o?oaeiinoae, ii?ie e ecaaaeaoue eo. E oai naiui iiauneoue
o?iaaiue noaaeeueiinoe nouanoaiaaiey iaoaai aeieiae/aneiai aeaea e aai
niiniaiinoue i?aiaeieaaaoue o?oaeiinoe, ii?iaeaeaaiua /anoi ei naiei.

N?aaee iianiinoae, eioi?ua iiaenoa?aaatho iauanoai, iniaia ianoi
caieiatho aeoo?eaoeeiiiua ninoiyiey, iineieueeo auoiae ec ieo
iai?aaeneacoai e ia iiaeao eiio?iee?iaaoueny ?acoiii. A yoeo ninoiyieyo
cia/eoaeueii aieueoaa aeeyiea ia aeaeueiaeoaa ?acaeoea ieacuaatho
neo/aeiinoe, a ia i?aaeunoi?ey.

?acaeoea /aeiaa/anoaa neeaaeuaaaony ec aeoeaiinoe ieeeeiiia e ieeeeiiia
ethaeae, eaaeaeue ec eioi?uo ii-naiaio aini?eieiaao ie?. Ii-naiaio
ioeaieaaao i?ienoiaeyuaa. Ii-naiaio iiieiaao naie oeaee e aeaaea a
iaeieo e oao aea neooaoeeyo i?eieiaao ianiaiaaeathuea ?aoaiey. Oaeay
aa?eaaaeueiinoue, oaeia ?aciiia?acea a iiaaaeaiee ethaeae e nicaeatho
iiaua aiciiaeiinoe aeey “?uiea”, ?anoe?yy ioe?uaathueeny auai?, auai?
aeiionoeiuo eiii?iiennia, neaaeiaaoaeueii, e iioaioeeaeueiua
aiciiaeiinoe ?acaeoey iauanoaa. Yoa iiiaia?aiiinoue e iaiaeiicia/iinoue
aini?eyoey ie?a ethaeueie e anoue iaeei ec caeiaia onoie/eainoe ?acaeoey
/aeiaaea eae aeieiae/aneiai aeaea. Oaeia ooaa?aeaeaiea iaiiieiaao
ciaiaieooth oai?aio Oeoa?a, eioi?ay ooaa?aeaeaao, /oi onoie/eainoue
aeieiae/aneie iiioeyoeee caaeneo io noaiaie aa aaiaoe/aneiai
?aciiia?acey. A naiii aeaea, ia/oi iiaeiaiia, ii ia aieaa neiaeiii
o?iaia i?aaiecaoeee iu aeaeei a noaeueaao /aeiaa/aneeo niiauanoa:
?aciiia?acea i?aaenoaaeaiee ioaeaeueiuo ethaeae, eo aeooiaiuo ie?ia,
?aciiia?acea eoeueoo?, oi?i i?aaiecaoeee eo i?iecaiaenoaaiiie
aeayoaeueiinoe, ?aciiia?acea oeeaeeecaoeee e o. ae. – ana yoi caeia
caei?iauey ieaiaoa?iiai niiauanoaa, ?anoe?ythuee iiea aiciiaeiuo
iieneia, a cia/eo, e aa?iyoiinoue iiauo iaoiaeie. Oaeei ia?acii,
ieth?aeeci – yoi ia ecia?aoaiea aeaiie?aoia, a i?yiay iio?aaiinoue
iauanoaaiiiai ?acaeoey.

Caeeth/aiea

I?aaeaeaeaiea a aieueoae noaiaie, /ai i?aaeneacaiea, iniiauaaaony ia
iaiauaiee oai?aoe/aneeo e yenia?aiaioaeueiuo aeaiiuo, ia o/?oa
caeiiiia?iinoae e naycae yaeaiee, iii oaea aunooiaao a ea/anoaa
?ani?ino?aiaiey iiciaiiiai ia iaeanoue aua iaiiciaiiiai. I?iaiice?iaaiea
yaeyaony aaaeouae oi?iie iao/iiai i?aaeaeaeaiey, auoaniyy i?aaeneacaiea,
eioi?ia oo?a/eaaao iao/ioth cia/aiinoue. ?acee/atho aeaa aeaea
i?iaiice?iaaiey: enneaaeiaaoaeueneia e ii?iaoeaiia.

A enneaaeiaaiee aoaeouaai i?eiaiyaony iaoe?iue e iiiaiia?aciue a?naiae
iao/iuo iaoiaeia, niaoeeaeueiuo iaoiaeee, eiae/aneeo e oaoie/aneeo
n?aaenoa iiciaiey. Iaeiaei iniiaiua iaoiaeu i?iaiice?iaaiey naiaeyony e
neaaeothuei (inoaeueiua aea yaeythony eo ?acee/iuie ni/aoaieyie e
aa?eaoeeyie): yeno?aiieyoeey, iiaeaee?iaaiea e yenia?oiua ioeaiee.

Acaeiiioiioaiea ii?yaeea e oaina yaeyaony oeaio?aeueiie i?iaeaiie
neia?aaoeee, iauaeo eioi?ie – yoi i?ioeannu naiii?aaiecaoeee a ioe?uouo
nenoaiao oece/aneeo, oeie/aneeo, aeieiae/aneeo, yeieiae/aneeo e ae?.
i?e?iaeu. A nayce n yoei neia?aaoe/aneee iiaeoiae eioa?anii i?eiaieoue e
i?iaeaia i?aaeaeaeaiey.

A iniiaa i?ioeanna ?acaeoey auyaeythony aeaa i?ioeaiiieiaeiua
oaiaeaioeee. Niceaeaoaeueiay oaiaeaioeey ainiiaenoaoao oieueei a
ioe?uouo nenoaiao, iaania/eaaaiuo i?eoieii ecaia yia?aee, aauanoaa e
eioi?iaoeee. Ai Anaeaiiie io aa ?iaeaeaiey e aei iaoeo aeiae a oeaeii
ainiiaenoaoao niceaeaoaeueiay oaiaeaioeey. ?acaeoea Anaeaiiie iineo
iai?aaeaiiue oa?aeoa? – io enoiaeiiai oaina e ia?anoathuaio ii?yaeeo.

Aanue a?aiaeeiciue i?ioeann naiii?aaiecaoeee iauanoaa ii?iaeaeaaony
aeoeaiinoueth ioaeaeueiuo ethaeae, eo no?aieaieyie e aeaeaieyie. Eo
“naiaiaeiie aieae”. O eaaeaeiai /aeiaaea iiiaeanoai iiaoaeeoaeueiuo
i?e/ei aeey oao eee eiuo aeaenoaee. Iu aeaeei, /oi a oaina eo aeoeaiinoe
iiaeii ?anniio?aoue ioaeaeueiua iioiee. Cia/eo, yoio oain iai?a?uaii
no?oeoo?ecoaony, e aicieeaao anoanoaaiiue aii?in i oao iaoaieciao,
eioi?ua ii?iaeaeatho yoo no?oeoo?ecaoeeth. Ii nouanoao, aanue i?ioeann
?acaeoey ia oieueei iauanoaa, ii e anaai aeeaiai ie?a, a oaeaea
Anaeaiiie iiaeii i?aaenoaaeoue naaa eae i?ioeann ooieoeeiie?iaaiey
iaeiaai “?uiea”, ia eioi?ii i?ienoiaeeo ioa?aeiaea noa?uo no?oeoo? e
caiauaiea eo iiauie, iai?a?uaii ?iaeaeathueieny no?oeoo?aie, i?e yoii
aio ia aeaii aeaeaoue yaiethoeeiiiua ooieee.

Yoa nenoaia iai?a?uaii ?acaeaaaony, i?aaeea ioai?a iiiaeaony e
oneiaeiythony. Iiaue yoai yaiethoeee “?uiea naycai n aeeth/aieai a iaai
/aeiaaea n aai ?acoiii, eioi?ue aiineo, iaaeaeo i?i/ei, e iiaue yeaiaio
iai?aaeneacoaiinoe – naiaiaeo auai?a.

Iaeiaei, aeeth/aiea ?acoia a iaoaieciu “?uiea” icia/aao, a /anoiinoe,
eniieueciaaiea i?aaeaeaeaiey a i?ioeaaeo?ao naeaeoeee e ioai?a, oi anoue
a caiaia noaoe/aneeo ia?aoiuo naycae aeeiaie/aneeie. E, /oi ia iaiaa
aaaeii, – aeeth/aiea a i?ioeaaeo?u ioai?a aeieaia?aiaiiuo oeaeae
iineoaeae ?acoia. A ?acoeueoaoa ioai? i?eia?aoaao ii?aaeaeaiioth
oeaeaiai?aaeaiiinoue. E aeeth/aiea ?acoia a iaoaieci “?uiea” –
aaaeiaeoee oaa a ?acaeoee aeeaiai aauanoaa, a iiaeao auoue e Anaeaiiie.

A ai?eciio i?aaeaeaeaiey, eioi?ui niiniaai ?aniieaaaoue ?acoi
nia?aiaiiiai /aeiaaea, ia i/aiue-oi aeaeae, e iaeuecy iaeeaeaoue, /oi ii
caiaoii ioaeaeeony.

E oai ia iaiaa cia/aiea ?acoia /aeiaaea, a oai aieaa Eieeaeoeaiiai
Eioaeeaeoa /aeiaa/anoaa a aai noaeueaao ieeae ia neaaeoao
i?aoiaiueoaoue. *aeiaaeo aeaenoaeoaeueii ia aeaii i?aaeoaaaeaoue oiae
niauoee, aeaoaee enoi?ee, ia aiai?y oaea ia iioeiaeueiii iooe ?acaeoey.
Ii ii niiniaai i?aaeaeaeaoue iianiinoe, eioi?ua iiaoo iaeeaeaoue aai a
aeeaeaeoai aoaeouai. Yoiai oaea aeinoaoi/ii, /oiau noi?ioee?iaaoue
iaeoth nenoaio cai?aoia, niiniaioth oiaiueoeoue iaaaoeaioth ?ieue
aiciiaeiuo o?oaeiinoae, ii?ie e ecaaaeaoue eo. E oai naiui iiauneoue
o?iaaiue noaaeeueiinoe nouanoaiaaiey iaoaai aeieiae/aneiai aeaea e aai
niiniaiinoue i?aiaeieaaaoue o?oaeiinoe, ii?iaeaeaaiua /anoi ei naiei.

N?aaee iianiinoae, eioi?ua iiaenoa?aaatho iauanoai, iniaia ianoi
caieiatho aeoo?eaoeeiiiua ninoiyiey, iineieueeo auoiae ec ieo
iai?aaeneacoai, e ia iiaeao eiio?iee?iaaoueny ?acoiii. A yoeo ninoiyieyo
cia/eoaeueii aieueoaa aeeyiea ia aeaeueiaeoaa ?acaeoea ieacuaatho
neo/aeiinoe, a ia i?aaeunoi?ey.

Nienie eniieueciaaiiie eeoa?aoo?u

1. Feigenberg J/ Ein Gedachtnis modell auf der Basis des
Wahrcheinlichkeits prognostizierung // Behindertenpadagog, 33 Jg., Heft
4.

2. Nie?eei A. A. Iniiau oeeinioee: O/aa. iiniaea aeey aocia. I.:
Iieeoecaeao, 1988,- 592n.

3. E?aoeay oeeinioneay yioeeeeiiaaeey / [?aae.- nino. A. O. Aoaneee e
ae?.].- I.: AI “Ecae. A?. “I?ia?ann”, 1994.-574n.

4. Aaaaeue. Ni/. O.8.

5. Eaniei A. E., Eene/eei A. A. Iiiyoeeiue aiia?ao i?iaiinoeee. A na.:
Niaa?oainoaiaaiea aeaoo nenoai. I., “Iaoea”, 1971, 566 n.

6. Oai?ey i?iaiice?iaaiey e i?eiyoey ?aoaiee. O/aa. iiniaea. Iiae ?aae.
N. A. Na?eenyia. I., “Auno. oeiea”, 1977.

7. A?aineee A. I. Oai?aoe/aneea iniiaaiey nioeeaeueiie neia?aaoeee. //
Aii?inu oeeinioee. ?4. 2000.

8. Aaaaeaiea a oeeinioeth: O/aaiee aeey aocia. A 2 /. *. 2 / O?ieia E.
O., A?aa-Iaeu Y. A., A?aoueaaa A. N. e ae?. – I.:Iieeoecaeao, 1989.

9. Ao?iiaaaa O. N., Eo?aethiia N. I., Iaeeiaoeeee A. A. Ia?aaeienu ie?a
ianoaoeeiia?iuo no?oeoo? // Iiaia a aeecie, iaoea, oaoieea. Iaoaiaoeea,
eeaa?iaoeea. I., 1985.

10. ?iaeineee ?. A. ?acaeaathuayny Anaeaiiay. I., 1995.

11. ?icaioaeue E. E. Oece/aneea caeiiiia?iino e /eneaiiua cia/aiey
ooiaeaiaioaeueiuo iinoiyiiuo // Oniaoe oece/aneeo iaoe. 1980. O. 131.

12. Aeyaen I. Neo/aeiay anaeaiiay. I., 1995.

13. Oi?ae E. Ie? yeaiaioa?iuo /anoeoe. I., 1965.

14. Iienaaa I. I. Noaeueaa oeeaeeecaoeee. Iooue ?acoia. – I.: sscuee
?onneie eoeueoo?u, 2000. – 224n.

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