Iineianeee ainoaea?noaaiiue oieaa?neoao
yeiiiieee, noaoenoeee e eioi?iaoeee
Eaoaae?a oeiainia, aeciana e aaieianeiai aeaea
?aoa?ao
ii iauae oai?ee oeiainia
ia oaio:
«nouiinoue e i?e/eiu eioeyoeee»
?oeiaiaeeoaeue: oaaa?ia a.e.
eniieieoaeue: EECA
iineaa 1997 aiae
- 1 –
eioeyoeey. iniiaiua iiiyoey.
*oi oaeia eioeyoeey? Eae yeiiiie/aneia yaeaiea eioeyoeey nouanoaoao
oaea aeeeoaeueiia a?aiy. N/eoaaony, /oi iia iiyaeeanue /ooue ee ia n
aicieeiiaaieai aeaiaa, n ooieoeeiie?iaaieai eioi?uo ia?ac?uaii naycaia.
Oa?iei eioeyoeey (io eaoeineiai inflatio – acaeooea) aia?aua noae
oiio?aaeyoueny a Naaa?iie Aia?eea a ia?eiae a?aaeaeaineie aieiu
1861-1865 aa. e iaicia/ae i?ioeann ?acaooaiey aoiaaeii-aeaiaaeiiai
ia?auaiey. A OIO a. Yoio oa?iei oiio?aaeyeny oaeaea a Aiaeee e O?aioeee.
Oe?ieia ?ani?ino?aiaiea a yeiiiie/aneie eeoa?aoo?a iiiyoea eioeyoeey
iieo/eei a OO a. iinea Ia?aie Ie?iaie Aieiu, a a niaaoneie yeiiiie/aneie
eeoa?aoo?a – n na?aaeeiu 20-o aa.
Iaeaieaa iauaa, o?aaeeoeeiiiia ii?aaeaeaiea eioeyoeee –
ia?aiieiaiea eaiaeia ia?auaiey aeaiaaeiie iannie naa?o iio?aaiinoae
oiaa?iiai?ioa, /oi aucuaaao iaanoeaiaiea aeaiaaeiie aaeeieoeu e
niioaaonoaaiii ?ino oiaa?iuo oeai.
Iaeiaei ii?aaeaeaiea eioeyoeee eae ia?aiieiaiea eaiaeia aeaiaaeiiai
ia?auaiey iaanoeaieaathueieny aoiaaeiuie aeaiueaaie iaeuecy n/eoaoue
iieiui. Eioeyoeey, oioy iia e i?iyaeyaony a ?inoa oiaa?iuo oeai, ia
iiaeao auoue naaaeaia eeoue e /enoi aeaiaaeiiio oaiiiaio. Yoi neiaeiia
nioeeaeueii-yeiiiie/aneia yaeaiea, ii?iaeaeaaiia aeeni?iii?oeeyie
aini?iecaiaenoaa a ?acee/iuo noa?ao ?uii/iiai oicyenoaa. Eioeyoeey
i?aaenoaaeyao niaie iaeio ec iaeaieaa ino?uo i?iaeai nia?aiaiiiai
?acaeoey yeiiiieee ai iiiaeo no?aiao ie?a.
Eioeyoeey – yoi iiauoaiea iauaai o?iaiy oeai ia oiaa?u e oaeoi?u
i?iecaiaenoaa. Yoi, eiia/ii, ia icia/aao, /oi iiauoathony iaycaoaeueii
ana oeaiu. Aeaaea a ia?eiaeu aeiaieueii auno?iai ?inoa eioeyoeee
iaeioi?ua oeaiu iiaoo inoaaaoueny ioiineoaeueii noaaeeueiuie, a ae?oaea
iaaeaoue. Iaeii ec aeaaiuo aieueiuo iano eioeyoeee – yoi oi, /oi oeaiu
eiatho oaiaeaioeeth iiaeieiaoueny i/aiue ia?aaiiia?ii. Iaeie
iiaeneaeeaatho, ae?oaea iiaeieiathony aieaa oia?aiiuie oaiiaie, a
o?aouee aiana ia iiaeieiathony.
Ecia?aiea eioeyoeee.
Aeey ioeaiee e ecia?aiey eioeyoeee eniieuecotho iieacaoaeue
eiaeaena iio?aaeoaeueneeo oeai. Eiaeaen iio?aaeoaeueneeo oeai (EIOe)
ecia?yao niioiioaiea iaaeaeo iieoiiie oeaiie ii?aaeaeaiiiai iaai?a
iio?aaeoaeueneeo oiaa?ia e oneoa («?uii/iay ei?ceia») aeey aeaiiiai
ia?eiaea n niaieoiiie oeaiie eaeaioe/iie e noiaeiie a?oiiu oiaa?ia e
oneoa a aaciaii ia?eiaea.
oeaia «?uii/iie
ei?ceiu» a io/aoiii ia?eiaea
EIOe a io/aoiii ia?eiaea = oeaia aiaeiae/iie «?uii/iie
ei?ceiu»
a aaciaii ia?eiaea
Eiaeaen iio?aaeoaeueneeo oeai yaeyaony iaeaieaa oe?iei
?ani?ino?aiaiiui ioeoeeaeueiui iieacaoaeai eioeyoeee.
Oaii eioeyoeee – eciaiaiea iauaai o?iaiy oeai, au?aaeaiiia a
i?ioeaioao.
EIOe a io/aoiii ia?eiaea – EIOe a
aaciaii ia?eiaea
oaii eioeyoeee = EIOe a aaciaii ia?eiaea
*100%
Oae iacuaaaiia «i?aaeei aaee/eiu 70» aeaao iai ae?oaoth
aiciiaeiinoue
eiee/anoaaiii ecia?eoue eioeyoeeth. Oi/iaa aiai?y, iii iicaieyao
auno?i
iiaen/eoaoue eiee/anoai eao, iaiaoiaeeiuo aeey oaeaiaiey oeai. Iaaei
oieueei ?acaeaeeoue /enei 70 ia aaeaaiaeiue o?iaaiue eioeyoeee:
– 2 –
i?eaeeceoaeueiia eiee/anoai
eao, iaiaoiaeeiuo aeey oaeaiaiey
70 .
oaiiia eioeyoeee = oaii aaeaaiaeiiai oaaee/aiey
o?iaiy oeai (%)
Neaaeoao ioiaoeoue, /oi «i?aaeei aaee/eiu 70» iau/ii i?eiaiyaony
oiaaea, eiaaea, iai?eia?, iaaei onoaiiaeoue, neieueei iio?aaoaony
a?aiaie, /oiau ?aaeueiue AII eee Aaoe ee/iua naa?aaeaiey oaeaieeenue.
Aeaiueae iaanoeaieaathony ii ioiioaieth e oiaa?ai e eiino?aiiui
aaethoai, nio?aiythuei noaaeeueiinoue naiae iieoiaoaeueiie neeu. ?yae
o/aiuo a ?inneeneeo aeaaeaie/aneeo e aocianeeo e?oaao aeiaaaeytho e
yoiio ia?a/ith (o.a. oiaa?ai e iaoeeiiaeueiui aaethoai) aua e cieioi.
Oaeay o?aeoiaea i?iyaeaiey eioeyoeee, eae iaanoeaiaiea aeaiaa e ii
ioiioaieth e cieioo, i?aaeiieaaaao,
/oi yoeie o/aiuie cieioi ii-i?aaeiaio ?anniao?eaaaony eae anaiauee
yeaeaaeaio, eae aeaiueae.
I?e/eiu eioeyoeee.
?ino oeai iiaeao auoue naycai n i?aauoaieai ni?ina iaae
i?aaeeiaeaieai oiaa?ia. Iaeiaei oaeie ?ino oeai, naycaiiue n
aeeni?iii?oeeae iaaeaeo ni?inii e i?aaeeiaeaieai ia eaeii-oi ioaeaeueiii
oiaa?iii ?uiea – yoi aua ia eioeyoeey. Eioeyoeey – yoi iiauoaiea iauaai
o?iaiy oeai a no?aia, eioi?ia aicieeaao a nayce n aeeeoaeueiui
ia?aaiiaaneai ia aieueoeinoaa ?uieia a iieueco ni?ina. Ae?oaeie neiaaie,
eioeyoeey – yoi aeenaaeain iaaeaeo niaieoiiui ni?inii e niaieoiiui
i?aaeeiaeaieai. Iiaenoaaeaaoue ?ino oeai iiaoo e eiie?aoiua
yeiiiie/aneea ianoiyoaeuenoaa. Iai?eia?, yia?aaoe/aneee e?ecen 70-o
aiaeia i?iyaee naay ia oieueei a ?inoa oeai ia iaooue (a yoio ia?eiae
oeaia ia iaooue aic?inea ii/oe a 20 ?ac), ii e ia ae?oaea oiaa?u e
oneoae: A 1973a. iauee o?iaaiue oeai a NOA iiaeiyeny ia 7 %, a a 1979a.-
ia 9 %.
Iacaaeneii io ninoiyiey aeaiaaeiie noa?u oiaa?iua oeaiu iiaoo
aic?anoe aneaaenoaea eciaiaiee a aeeiaieea i?iecaiaeeoaeueiinoe
o?oaea, oeeeee/aneeo e naciiiuo eieaaaiee, no?oeoo?iuo naeaeaia a
nenoaia aini?iecaiaenoaa, iiiiiieecaoeee ?uiea, ainoaea?noaaiiiai
?aaoee?iaaiey yeiiiieee, aaaaeaiey iiauo noaaie iaeiaia,
aeaaaeueaaoeee e ?aaaeueaaoeee aeaiaaeiie aaeeieoeu, eciaiaiey
eiiuthieoo?u ?uiea, aicaeaenoaey aiaoiayeiiiie/aneeo naycae, noeoeeiuo
aaaenoaee e o.i. Neaaeiaaoaeueii, ?ino oeai aucuaaaony ?acee/iuie
i?e/eiaie. Ii ia anyeee ?ino oeai – eioeyoeey, e n?aaee iacaaiiuo auoa
i?e/ei ?inoa oeai aaaeii auaeaeeoue aeaenoaeoaeueii eioeyoeeiiiua.
Oae, ?ino oeai, naycaiiue n oeeeee/aneeie eieaaaieyie eiiuthieoo?u,
iaeuecy n/eoaoue eioeyoeeiiiui. Ii ia?a i?ioiaeaeaiey ?acee/iuo oac
oeeeea (iniaaiii a aai «eeanne/aneie oi?ia», oa?aeoa?iie aeey OIO –
ia/aea OO aa. ) aoaeao iaiyoueny e aeeiaieea oeai. Eo iiauoaiea a
ia?eiae aoia niaiyaony eo iaaeaieai a oacao e?ecena e aeai?annee e
aiiaue ?inoii a oaca iaeeaeaiey. Iiauoaiea i?iecaiaeeoaeueiinoe o?oaea,
i?e i?i/eo ?aaiuo oneiaeyo, aeieaeii aanoe e nieaeaieth oeai.
Ae?oaia aeaei – anee iiauoaiea i?iecaiaeeoaeueiinoe o?oaea a ?yaea
io?aneae nii?iaiaeaeaaony iia?aaeathuei yoi iiauoaiea ?inoii
ca?aaioiie ieaou. Oaeia yaeaiea, eiaioaiia eioeyoeeae ecaea?aeae,
aeaenoaeoaeueii nii?iaiaeaeaaony iauei iiauoaieai o?iaiy oeai. Noeoeeiua
aaaenoaey ia iiaoo n/eoaoueny i?e/eiie eioeyoeeiiiiai ?inoa oeai. Oae,
anee a ?acoeueoaoa iaaiaeiaiey a eaeie-eeai ianoiinoe ?ac?ooaiu aeiia,
oi, i/aaeaeii, iiaeieioony oeaiu ia no?ieiaoa?eaeu. Yoi aoaeao
noeioee?iaaoue i?iecaiaeeoaeae no?ieiaoa?eaeia ?anoe?youe i?aaeeiaeaiea
naiae i?iaeoeoeee e ii ia?a ianuuaiey ?uiea oeaiu noaioo iiieaeaoueny.
– 3 –
Eoae, /oi iiaeii ioianoe e aeaenoaeoaeueii eioeyoeeiiiui i?e/eiai
?inoa oeai? Iaciaai aaaeiaeoea ec ieo, iiiiy i oii, /oi eioeyoeey
naycaia n oeaeui niaeo?ii aeeni?iii?oeee.
Ai-ia?auo, yoi aeeni?iii?oeeiiaeueiinoue, eee ianaaeaine?iaaiiinoue
ainoaea?noaaiiuo ?anoiaeia e aeioiaeia, au?aaeathuayny a aeaoeoeeoa
ainathaeaeaoa. Anee yoio aeaoeoeeo oeiaine?oaony ca n/ao caeiia a
Oeaio?aeueiii yienneiiiii aaiea no?aiu, ae?oaeie neiaaie, ca n/ao
aeoeaiiai eniieueciaaiey «ia/aoiiai noaiea», yoi i?eaiaeeo e ?inoo iannu
aeaiaa a ia?auaiee.
Ai-aoi?uo, eioeyoeeiiiue ?ino oeai iiaeao i?ienoiaeeoue, anee
oeiaine?iaaiea eiaanoeoeee inouanoaeyaony aiaeiae/iuie iaoiaeaie.
Iniaaiii eioeyoeeiiii iianiuie yaeythony eiaanoeoeee, naycaiiua n
ieeeoa?ecaoeeae yeiiiieee. Oae, iai?iecaiaeeoaeueiia iio?aaeaiea
iaoeeiiaeueiiai aeioiaea ia aiaiiua oeaee icia/aao ia oieueei iioa?th
iauanoaaiiiai aiaaonoaa. Iaeiia?aiaiii aiaiiua anneaiiaaiey nicaeatho
aeiiieieoaeueiue ieaoaaeaniiniaiue ni?in, /oi aaaeao e ?inoo aeaiaaeiie
iannu aac niioaaonoaothuaai oiaa?iiai iie?uoey. ?ino aiaiiuo ?anoiaeia
yaeyaony iaeiie ec aeaaiuo i?e/ei o?iie/aneeo aeaoeoeeoia
ainoaea?noaaiiiai athaeaeaoa e oaaee/aiey ainoaea?noaaiiiai aeieaa ai
iiiaeo no?aiao, aeey iie?uoey eioi?iai ainoaea?noai oaaee/eaaao
aeaiaaeioth ianno.
A-o?aoueeo, iauaa iiauoaiea o?iaiy oeai naycuaaaony ?acee/iuie oeieaie
a nia?aiaiiie yeiiiie/aneie oai?ee e n eciaiaieai no?oeoo?u ?uiea a OO
aaea. Yoa no?oeoo?a ana iaiueoa iaiiieiaao oneiaey niaa?oaiiie
eiieo?aioeee, eiaaea ia ?uiea aeaenoaoao aieueoia /enei i?iecaiaeeoaeae,
i?iaeoeoeey oa?aeoa?ecoaony iaeii?iaeiinoueth, ia?aeea eaieoaea ia
cao?oaeiai. Nia?aiaiiue ?uiie – yoi a cia/eoaeueiie noaiaie
ieeaiiieenoe/aneee ?uiie. A ieeaiiieeno (ianiaa?oaiiue eiieo?aio)
iaeaaeaao ecaanoiie noaiaiueth aeanoe iaae oeaiie. E anee aeaaea
ieeaiiieee ia ia?auie ia/eiatho «aiieo oeai», iie caeioa?aniaaiu a aa
iiaeaea?aeaiee e oneeaiee. Eae ecaanoii, ianiaa?oaiiue eiieo?aio,
no?aiynue iiaeaea?aeaoue aunieee o?iaaiue oeai, caeioa?aniaai a
nicaeaiee aeaoeoeeoa. Ia aeaeay «enii?oeoue» naie ?uiie nieaeaieai oeai,
iiiiiieee e ieeaiiieee i?aiyonoaotho ?inoo yeanoe/iinoe i?aaeeiaeaiey
oiaa?ia a nayce n ?inoii oeai. Ia?aie/aiea i?eoiea iiauo i?iecaiaeeoaeae
a io?aneue ieeaiiieenoia iiaeaea?aeeaaao aeeeoaeueiia ianiioaaonoaea
niaieoiiiai ni?ina e i?aaeeiaeaiey.
A-/aoaa?ouo, n ?inoii «ioe?uoinoe» yeiiiieee oie eee eiie no?aiu,
ana aieueoei aoyaeaaieai aa a ie?ioicyenoaaiiua nayce oaaee/eaaaony
iianiinoue «eiii?oe?oaiie» eioeyoeee. Oiiiyiooue auoa nea/ie oeai ia
yia?aiiineoaea a 1973 a. («yia?aaoe/aneee e?ecen») aucuaae ?ino oeai ia
eiii?oe?oaioth iaooue e – ii oaoiieiae/aneie oeaii/ea – ia ae?oaea
oiaa?u. Aiciiaeiinoe ai?ioueny n «eiii?oe?oaiie» eioeyoeeae aeinoaoi/ii
ia?aie/aiu. Iiaeii, eiia/ii, ?aaaeueae?iaaoue nianoaaiioth aaethoo e
naeaeaoue eiii?o oie aea iaooe aieaa aeaoaaui. Ii ?aaaeueaaoeey
naeaeaao iaeiia?aiaiii e aieaa aei?iaei yenii?o ioa/anoaaiiuo oiaa?ia, a
yoi icia/aao nieaeaiea eiieo?aioiniiniaiinoe ia ie?iaii ?uiea.
A-iyouo, eioeyoeey i?eia?aoaao naiiiiaeaea?aeeaathueeny oa?aeoa? a
?acoeueoaoa oae iacuaaaiuo eioeyoeeiiiuo iaeeaeaiee. Iiiaea o/aiua a
no?aiao Caiaaea e a iaoae no?aia iniai auaeaeytho yoio oaeoi?,
iiae/a?eeaay, /oi i?aiaeieaiea eioeyoeeiiiuo iaeeaeaiee ianaeaiey e
i?iecaiaeeoaeae aaaeiaeoay (anee aiiaua ia aeaaiay) caaea/a
aioeeioeyoeeiiiie iieeoeee.
Eaeia iaoaieci aicaeaenoaey ia yeiiiieeo eioeyoeeiiiuo iaeeaeaiee?
Aeaei a oii, /oi ethaee, noaeeeaaynue n iiauoaieai oeai ia oiaa?u e
oneoae a oa/aiea
– 4 –
aeeeoaeueiiai ia?eiaea a?aiaie e oa?yy iaaeaaeaeo ia eo nieaeaiea,
ia/eiatho i?eia?aoaoue oiaa?u naa?o naieo oaeoueo iio?aaiinoae.
Iaeiia?aiaiii iie o?aaotho iiauoaiey iiieiaeueiie ca?aaioiie ieaou e oai
naiui iiaeoaeeeaatho oaeouee iio?aaeoaeueneee ni?in e ?anoe?aieth.
I?iecaiaeeoaee onoaiaaeeaatho ana aieaa aunieea oeaiu ia naith
i?iaeoeoeeth, iaeeaeay, /oi a nei?ii a?aiaie nu?uea, iaoa?eaeu e
eiiieaeoothuea ecaeaeey aua aieueoa iiaei?iaeatho. Ia/eiaaony aaanoai io
aeaiaa. I?eia? ec iaoae ?inneeneie yeiiiieee (yiaa?ue – ai?aeue 1992
a.): a oneiaeyo aunieeo oaiiia eioeyoeee eaaeaeue i?iecaiaeeoaeue
aiyeny, /oi aai iinoaauee neeueii iiaeieiao oeaiu ia naith i?iaeoeoeeth.
Iiyoiio, ca?aiaa aeaeay naay iaaciianeoue, ii iiiaie?aoii caauoae oeaio
ia naith i?iaeoeoeeth. A ?acoeueoaoa oeaiu (iinea eo eeaa?aeecaoeee)
iiaenei/eee ia oieueei ia o?iaaiue iaoaeiaeaoai?aiiiai ?aiaa
ieaoaaeaniiniaiiai ni?ina, ii e ia aaee/eio eioeyoeeiiiuo iaeeaeaiee.
Eoae, i/aaeaeii, /oi ?anoe?aiea a neaaenoaea eioeyoeeiiiuo
iaeeaeaiee oaeouaai ni?ina noeioee?oao aeaeueiaeoee ?ino oeai.
Iaeiia?aiaiii nie?auathony naa?aaeaiey e oiaiueoathony e?aaeeoiua
?ano?nu, /oi naea?aeeaaao ?ino i?iecaiaenoaaiiuo eiaanoeoeee e,
neaaeiaaoaeueii, i?aaeeiaeaiea oiaa?ia e oneoa. Yeiiiie/aneay neooaoeey
a yoii neo/aa oa?aeoa?ecoaony iaaeeaiiui oaaee/aieai niaieoiiiai
i?aaeeiaeaiey e auno?ui ?inoii niaieoiiiai ni?ina. ?acoeueoao – iauaa
iiauoaiea oeai.
Iiiaeanoai i?e/ei eioeyoeee ioia/aaony i?aeoe/anee ai anao no?aiao.
Iaeiaei eiiaeiaoeey ?acee/iuo oaeoi?ia yoiai i?ioeanna caaeneo io
eiie?aoiuo yeiiiie/aneeo oneiaee. Oae, n?aco iinea Aoi?ie ie?iaie aieiu
a Caiaaeiie Aa?iia eioeyoeey auea naycaia n ino?aeoei aeaoeoeeoii iiiaeo
oiaa?ia. A iineaaeothuea aiaeu aeaaioth ?ieue a ?ane?o/eaaiee
eioeyoeeiiiiai i?ioeanna noaee ea?aoue ainoaea?noaaiiua ?anoiaeu,
niioiioaiea «oeaiu – ca?aaioiay ieaoa», ia?aiin eioeyoeee ec ae?oaeo
no?ai e iaeioi?ua ae?oaea oaeoi?u. *oi eanaaony auaoaai NNN?, oi ia?yaeo
n iaueie caeiiiia?iinoyie, aaaeiaeoae i?e/eiie eioeyoeee a iineaaeiea
aiaeu iiaeii n/eoaoue oieeaeueioth aeeni?iii?oeeiiaeueiinoue a
yeiiiieea, aicieeooth eae neaaenoaea eiiaiaeii-aaeieieno?aoeaiie
nenoaiu. Niaaoneie yeiiiieea i?enoue aeeeoaeueiia ?acaeoea a ?aaeeia
aiaiiiai a?aiaie (ii?ia iaeiieaiey, ii iaeioi?ui ioeaieai, aeinoeaea 1/2
iaoeeiiaeueiiai aeioiaea i?ioea 15-20% a no?aiao Caiaaea), /?acia?iay
aeiey aiaiiuo ?anoiaeia a AII, aunieay noaiaiue iiiiiieecaoeee
i?iecaiaenoaa, ?ani?aaeaeaiey e aeaiaaeii-e?aaeeoiie nenoaiu, ieceee
oaeaeueiue aan ca?aaioiie ieaou a iaoeeiiaeueiii aeioiaea, e ae?oaea
iniaaiiinoe.
Oeiu eioeyoeee.
A oai?eyo, ?ac?aaaouaaaiuo caiaaeiuie yeiiiienoaie, auaeaeythony a
ea/anoaa aeueoa?iaoeaiuo eiioeaioeee eioeyoeey ni?ina e eioeyoeey
ecaea?aeae. Yoe eiioeaioeee ?anniao?eaatho ?acee/iua i?e/eiu eioeyoeee.
Eioeyoeey ni?ina (demand-pull inflation) icia/aao ia?ooaiea
?aaiiaaney
iaaeaeo niaieoiiui ni?inii e niaieoiiui i?aaeeiaeaieai ni noi?iiu
ni?ina. O?aaeeoeeiiii eciaiaiey a o?iaia oeai iauyniythony ecauoi/iui
niaieoiiui ni?inii. Iniiaiuie i?e/eiaie caeanue iiaoo auoue ?anoe?aiea
ainoaea?noaaiiuo caeacia (aiaiiuo e nioeeaeueiuo), oaaee/aiea ni?ina ia
n?aaenoaa i?iecaiaenoaa a oneiaeyo iieiie e ii/oe 100% caa?ocee
i?iecaiaenoaaiiuo iiuiinoae, a oaeaea ?ino iieoiaoaeueiie niiniaiinoe
o?oaeyueony (?ino ca?aaioiie ieaou) a ?acoeueoaoa niaeaniaaiiuo
aeaenoaee i?ionithcia. Aneaaenoaea yoiai a ia?auaiee aicieeaao ecauoie
aeaiaa ii ioiioaieth e eiee/anoao oiaa?ia, iiauoathony oeaiu. Yeiiiieea
iiaeao iiiuoaoueny o?aoeoue aieueoa, /ai iia niiniaia
i?iecaiaeeoue, iia iiaeao
– 5 –
no?aieoueny e eaeie-oi oi/ea, iaoiaeyuaeny aia e?eaie naieo
i?iecaiaenoaaiiuo aiciiaeiinoae. A oaeie neooaoeee, eiaaea oaea eiaao
ianoi iieiay caiyoinoue a noa?a i?iecaiaenoaa (I?iecaiaenoaaiiue naeoi?
ia a ninoiyiee ioaaoeoue ia yoio ecauoi/iue ni?in oaaee/aieai ?aaeueiiai
iauaia i?iaeoeoeee, iioiio /oi ana eiathueany ?ano?nu oaea iieiinoueth
eniieueciaaiu.), i?iecaiaeeoaee ia iiaoo io?aaae?iaaoue ia oaaee/eaoeeny
ni?in ?inoii i?aaeeiaeaiey oiaa?ia. Iiyoiio yoio ecauoi/iue ni?in
i?eaiaeeo e caauoaiiui oeaiai ia iinoiyiiue ?aaeueiue iauai i?iaeoeoeee
e aucuaaao eioeyoeeth ni?ina. Eiuie neiaaie, ecauoie a ia?auaiee
ieaoaaeiuo n?aaenoa iaoaeeeaaaony ia ia?aie/aiiia i?aaeeiaeaiea oiaa?ia
e yoi au?aaeaaony a ?inoa iauaai o?iaiy oeai. Nooue eioeyoeee ni?ina
eiiaaea iauyniytho iaeiie o?acie: «Neeoeii iiiai aeaiaa ioioeony ca
neeoeii iaeui eiee/anoaii oiaa?ia».
Eioeyoeey ecaea?aeae (cost-push inflation) icia/aao ?ino oeai
aneaaenoaea oaaee/aiey ecaea?aeae i?iecaiaenoaa. Eioeyoeey iiaeao oaeaea
aicieeiooue a ?acoeueoaoa oiaiueoaiey niaieoiiiai i?aaeeiaeaiey.
I?e/eiaie oaaee/aiey ecaea?aeae iiaoo auoue ieeaiiieenoe/aneay
i?aeoeea oeaiiia?aciaaiey e oeiainiaay iieeoeea ainoaea?noaa, ?ino oeai
ia nu?uea, aeaenoaey i?ionithcia, o?aaothueo iiauoaiey ca?aaioiie ieaou
e ae?.
Oai?ey eioeyoeee, iaoneiaeaiiie ?inoii ecaea?aeae, iauyniyao ?ino
oeai oaeeie oaeoi?aie, eioi?ua i?eaiaeyo e oaaee/aieth ecaea?aeae ia
aaeeieoeo i?iaeoeoeee. Ecaea?aeee ia aaeeieoeo i?iaeoeoeee – yoi
n?aaeiea ecaea?aeee i?e aeaiiii iauaia i?iecaiaenoaa. Oaeea ecaea?aeee
iiaeii iieo/eoue, ?acaeaeea iauea cao?aou ia ?ano?nu ia eiee/anoai
i?iecaaaeaiiie i?iaeoeoeee, oi anoue:
.
iauea cao?aou .
ecaea?aeee ia aaeeieoeo i?iaeoeoeee = eie-ai aaeeieoe i?iaeoeoeee
Iiauoaiea ecaea?aeae ia aaeeieoeo i?iaeoeoeee a yeiiiieea nie?auaao
i?eauee e iauai i?iaeoeoeee, eioi?ue oe?iu aioiau i?aaeeiaeeoue i?e
nouanoaothuai o?iaia oeai. A ?acoeueoaoa oiaiueoaaony i?aaeeiaeaiea
oiaa?ia e oneoa a ianooaaa anae yeiiiieee. Yoi oiaiueoaiea
i?aaeeiaeaiey, a naith i/a?aaeue, iiauoaao o?iaaiue oeai.
Neaaeiaaoaeueii, ii yoie noaia ecaea?aeee, a ia ni?in acaei/eaaao oeaiu,
eae yoi i?ienoiaeeo i?e eioeyoeee ni?ina.
Iineieueeo iauaa iiauoaiea oeai i?eaiaeeo e nieaeaieth ?aaeueiuo
aeioiaeia ianaeaiey, oi iaecaaaeiu eae o?aaiaaiey i?ionithcia oaaee/eoue
iiieiaeueioth ca?aaioioth ieaoo o?oaeyueony, oae e ainoaea?noaaiiay
iieeoeea eiiiainaoeee aeaiaaeiuo iioa?ue io eioeyoeee. Aicieeaao
ii?i/iue e?oa: ?ino oeai aucuaaao o?aaiaaiey iiauoaiey aeioiaeia
ianaeaiey, /oi, a naith i/a?aaeue, i?eaiaeeo e iiaiio nea/eo oeai,
oae eae ?anooo ecaea?aeee i?aaei?eieiaoaeae ia ca?aaioioth ieaoo. I?e
yoii oniaoiay ainoaea?noaaiiay aioeeioeyoeeiiiay iieeoeea i?aaeiieaaaao,
/oi i?ia?aiiu eiaeaenaoeee aeioiaeia ia iiaoo auoue iieiinoueth
en/a?iuaathueie aeey anao neiaa ianaeaiey eee iaeeiaeiauie aeey
?aaioieeia ?aciuo io?aneae yeiiiieee.
Ia i?aeoeea iaeaaei ioee/eoue iaeei oei eioeyoeee io ae?oaiai, iie
oanii acaeiiaeaenoaotho, iiyoiio ?ino ca?ieaou, iai?eia?, iiaeao
auaeyaeaoue e eae eioeyoeey ni?ina e eae eioeyoeey ecaea?aeae.
Eioeyoeey, aucaaiiay iiauoaieai ca?ieaou, yaeyaony ?aciiaeaeiinoueth
eioeyoeee, iaoneiaeaiiie ?inoii ecaea?aeae. I?e ii?aaeaeaiiuo
ianoiyoaeuenoaao enoi/ieeii eioeyoeee iiaoo noaoue i?ionithcu. Yoi
iauyniyaony oai, /oi iie a eaeie-oi noaiaie inouanoaeytho eiio?ieue iaae
iiieiaeueiie ca?ieaoie iin?aaenoaii eieeaeoeaiuo aeiaiai?ia.
I?aaeiieiaeei, /oi e?oiiua i?ionithcu iio?aaotho e aeiauethony
aieueoiai iiauoaiey ca?ieaou. Aieaa oiai, i?aaeiieiaeei, /oi yoei
– 6 –
iiauoaieai iie onoaiiayo iiaue noaiaea?o ca?ieaou ?aai/eo, eioi?ua ia
yaeythony /eaiaie i?ionithca. Anee iiauoaiea ca?ieaou a ianooaaa anae
no?aiu ia o?aaiiaaoeaaaony eaeeie-eeai i?ioeaiaeaenoaothueie oaeoi?aie,
oaeeie, eae oaaee/aiea iauaia auioneaaiie ca iaeei /an i?iaeoeoeee.
I?iecaiaeeoaee ioaaoyo ia yoi nie?auaieai i?iecaiaenoaa oiaa?ia e oneoa,
aua?anuaaaiuo ia ?uiie. I?e iaeciaiiii ni?ina yoi oiaiueoaiea
i?aaeeiaeaiey i?eaaaeao e iiauoaieth o?iaiy oeai. Iineieueeo aeiiaieeii
yaeyaony /?acia?iia iiauoaiea iiieiaeueiie ca?aaioiie ieaou, yoio oei
eioeyoeee iacuaaaony eioeyoeeae, aucaaiiie iiauoaieai ca?aaioiie ieaou,
eioi?ay i?aaenoaaeyao niaie ?aciiaeaeiinoue eioeyoeee, iaoneiaeaiiie
?inoii ecaea?aeae.
Ae?oaay iniiaiay ?aciiaeaeiinoue eioeyoeee, iaoneiaeaiiie ?inoii
ecaea?aeae, iau/ii iacuaaaony eioeyoeeae, aucaaiiie ia?ooaieai iaoaiecia
i?aaeeiaeaiey. Iia yaeyaony neaaenoaeai oaaee/aiey ecaea?aeae
i?iecaiaenoaa, a neaaeiaaoaeueii, e oeai, eioi?ia naycaii n aiacaiiui,
iai?aaeaeaeaiiui oaaee/aieai noieiinoe nu?uey eee cao?ao ia yia?aeth.
Oaaaeeoaeueiui i?eia?ii neoaeeo cia/eoaeueiia iiauoaiea oeai ia
eiii?oe?oaioth iaooue a 1973-1974 aa. e a 1979-1980 aa. Iineieueeo ca
yoi a?aiy oeaiu ia yia?aeth aic?inee, oaaee/eeenue oaeaea ecaea?aeee
i?iecaiaenoaa e o?ainii?oe?iaee anae i?iaeoeoeee a yeiiiieea. Yoi
i?eaaei e auno?iio ?inoo eioeyoeee, iaoneiaeaiiie oaaee/aieai
ecaea?aeae.
Iaiaoiaeeii ioiaoeoue, /oi ie a iaeiie yeiiiie/anee ?acaeoie no?aia
iaeiia?aiaiii ia iaaethaeaeenue ai aoi?ie iieiaeia OO a. aeeeoaeueiia
a?aiy iieiay caiyoinoue, naiaiaeiue ?uiie e noaaeeueiinoue oeai. Oeaiu
?inee iinoiyiii, a n eiioea 60-o aa. – aeaaea a ia?eiaeu yeiiiie/aneeo
niaaeia e canoiy, eiaaea iaaeia?ocea i?iecaiaenoaa iiaea aeioiaeeoue aei
cia/eoaeueiuo ?acia?ia. A aaaeue ?ino oeai a oaca e?ecena – yaeaiea
iaaa?iyoiia aeey oeeeeia OIO – ia?aie iieiaeiu OO aaeia. Oaeia yaeaiea
iieo/eei iacaaiea noaaoeyoeee, /oi icia/aao eioeyoeeiiiue ?ino oeai a
oneiaeyo noaaiaoeee, canoiy i?iecaiaenoaa, yeiiiie/aneiai e?ecena.
A yeiiiieea iiiaeo no?ai eiiaaea aicieeaao neooaoeee, eiaaea
aic?anoaiea iauaai o?iaiy oeai i?ienoiaeeo n iaeiia?aiaiiui nie?auaieai
iauaiia i?iecaiaenoaa. Oaeia ninoiyiea yeiiiieee iacuaaaony
noaaoeyoeeae.
Iaeaieaa i/aaeaeiie i?e/eiie noaaoeyoeee neoaeeo oiaiueoaiea
niaieoiiiai i?aaeeiaeaiey, oi anoue eioeyoeey ecaea?aeae i?iecaiaenoaa.
*aua anaai ?aceia iiauoaiea niaieoiiuo ecaea?aeae i?iecaiaenoaa
aicieeaao iiae aicaeaenoaeai yeciaaiiuo oaeoi?ia (iao?iaeae, noeoeeiia
aaaenoaea eee, iai?eia?, iiaei?iaeaiea iaooe a 70-a aiaeu). Iaeiaei yoe
i?e/eiu iinyo a?aiaiiue oa?aeoa?, e?iia oiai, eo ?ieue a noaaoeyoeeiiiuo
i?ioeannao inia?eaaaony iiiaeie enneaaeiaaoaeyie, eioi?ua iieaaatho, /oi
iie iiaoo eieoeee?iaaoue noaaoeyoeeth, ii ia a ninoiyiee aeeeoaeueiia
a?aiy ieacuaaoue aeeyiea ia yeiiiieeo no?aiu.
Aeaeu eioeyoeee.
?aiaa eioeyoeey aicieeaea, eae i?aaeei, a /?acau/aeiuo
ianoiyoaeuenoaao. Iai?eia?, ai a?aiy aieiu ainoaea?noai auioneaei
aieueoia eiee/anoai aoiaaeiuo aeaiaa aeey oeiaine?iaaiey naieo aiaiiuo
?anoiaeia. A iineaaeiea aeaa-o?e aeanyoeeaoey ai iiiaeo no?aiao iia
noaea o?iie/aneie, iinoiyiiui oaeoi?ii aini?iecaiaenoaaiiiai i?ioeanna.
Eioeyoeey iiaeao i?ioaeaoue oia?aiii, auoue iieco/ae, a oneiaeyo
eioi?ie oeaiu aic?anoatho ia aieaa /ai ia 10% a aiae. Yeiiiie/aneay
oai?ey, a /anoiinoe nia?aiaiiia eaeineainoai, ?anniao?eaaao
oaeoth eioeyoeeth eae
– 7 –
aeaai aeey yeiiiie/aneiai ?acaeoey, a ainoaea?noai eae noauaeo
i?iaaaeaiey yooaeoeaiie yeiiiie/aneie iieeoeee. Oaeay eioeyoeey
iicaieyao ei??aeoe?iaaoue oeaiu i?eiaieoaeueii e eciaiythueiny oneiaeyi
i?iecaiaenoaa e ni?ina.
Aeey aaeiie?othuae eioeyoeee oa?aeoa?ai ?ino oeai io 20 aei 200% a
aiae. Yoi oaea na?ueaciia iai?yaeaiea aeey yeiiiieee, oioy aieueoeinoai
naeaeie e eiio?aeoia o/eouaaao oaeie oaii ?inoa oeai.
Aeia?eioeyoeey i?aaenoaaeyao niaie ano?iiiie/aneee ?ino eiee/anoaa
aeaiaa a ia?auaiee e o?iaiy oiaa?iuo oeai. Iaaeaaiee ?aei?ae
i?eiaaeeaaeeo Ieea?aaoa: ca ia?eiae a?aaeaeaineie aieiu n?aaeiaaiaeiaie
i?e?ino oeai aeinoeaae 33000%.
E oia?aiiay, e aaeiie?othuay, e aeia?eioeyoeey i?aaenoaaeytho niaie
oei oae iacuaaaiie ioe?uoie eioeyoeee. A ioee/ea io iaa, i?e
iiaeaaeaiiie eioeyoeee, ?inoa oeai iiaeao e ia iaaethaeaoueny. I?e yoii
iaanoeaiaiea aeaiaa au?aaeaaony a aeaoeoeeoao (ionoonoaee oiaa?ia,
iaaiciiaeiinoe eo eoieoue ca aeaiueae, iai?eia?, a iaaaceiao ainoi?aiaee
a iaoae no?aia) e i/a?aaeyo.
Eioeyoeey iiaeao auoue naaeaine?iaaiiie, o.a. ?ino oeai oia?aiiue e
iaeiia?aiaiiue ia aieueoeinoai oiaa?ia e oneoa. A yoii neo/aa,
niioaaonoaaiii aaeaaiaeiiio ?inoo oeai, aic?anoaao noaaea i?ioeaioa, /oi
?aaiicia/ii yeiiiie/aneie neooaoeee ni noaaeeueiuie oeaiaie.
Ianaaeaine?iaaiiay eioeyoeey i?aaenoaaeyao niaie ?acee/iua oaiiu
?inoa oeai ia ?acee/iua oiaa?u.
Iai?iaiice?oaiay eioeyoeey.
Neaaeoao oaeaea ioee/aoue iaeeaeaaioth eioeyoeeth io iaiaeeaeaaiie.
Iaeeaeaaioth eioeyoeeth iiaeii i?iaiice?iaaoue ia eaeie-eeai ia?eiae,
eee iia «ieaie?oaony» i?aaeoaeuenoaii no?aiu. Iaiaeeaeaaiay eioeyoeey
oa?aeoa?ecoaony aiacaiiui nea/eii oeai, /oi iaaaoeaii neacuaaaony ia
aeaiaaeiii ia?auaiee e nenoaia iaeiaiiaeiaeaiey. A oaeie neooaoeee, anee
a yeiiiieea oaea nouanoaiaaee eioeyoeeiiiua iaeeaeaiey, ianaeaiea,
iianaynue aeaeueiaeoaai iaanoeaiaiey naieo aeioiaeia, ?acei oaaee/eaaao
?anoiaeu ia i?eia?aoaiea oiaa?ia e oneoa, /oi naii ii naaa nicaeaao
o?oaeiinoe a yeiiiieea, eneaaeaao ?aaeueioth ea?oeio iio?aaiinoae a
iauanoaa e aaaeao e ?anno?ienoao oicyenoaa. O.i., aiacaiiue nea/ae
oeai iiaeao ni?iaioee?iaaoue aeaeueiaeoea
eioeyoeeiiiua iaeeaeaiey, eioi?ua aoaeoo iiaenoaaeaaoue ?ino oeai.
Iniaaiiinoe eioeyoeeiiiiai i?ioeanna a ?innee.
Enoi?e/anee eioeyoeey a yeiiiieea ?innee aicieeea aua a 50-o ia/aea
60-o aiaeia e naycaia n ?aceei iaaeaieai yooaeoeaiinoe iauanoaaiiiai
i?iecaiaenoaa. Iaeiaei iia iineea ne?uoue oa?aeoa? e i?iyaeyeanue a
oiaa?iii aeaoeoeeoa e cia/eoaeueiii ?ac?uaa a oeaiao: ieceeo ia
eiia/ioth i?iaeoeoeeth e aunieeo ia ana aeaeu nu?uey.
Iinea aeeeoaeueiiai ia?eiaea ieceeo oaiiia ?inoa oeai, 90-a aiaeu
ieacaeenue aeey ?innee a?aiaiai aunieie ioe?uoie eioeyoeee. Aaeaaiaeiua
oaiiu i?e?inoa iio?aaeoaeueneeo oeai /aou?a aiaea iiae?yae – a 91-94 aa.
– nouanoaaiii i?aauoaee 100% e, ii i?aaeaa?eoaeueiie ioeaiea, aeieaeiu
auee ninoaaeoue a 95 a. ieiei 120%. Iaeneiaeueiia iiauoaiea o?iaiy oeai
auei ca?aaeno?e?iaaii a 92 a., eiaaea ca aiae yoio iieacaoaeue
oaaee/eeny aieaa /ai a 26 ?ac. Iauee eiaeaen iio?aaeoaeueneeo oeai ca
iaiieiua iyoue eao (aeaeaa?ue 90 a. – iae 95 a.) ninoaaee 3470 e
aeieaeii auei aeinoeaiooue i?eia?ii 4500 e aeaeaa?th 95 a. Ii ethaui
e?eoa?eyi oaeea oaiiu eioeyoeee yaeythony eneeth/eoaeueii aunieeie e
naeaeaoaeuenoaotho i aeoaieii oeiainiaii e?ecena.
Aeey ?innee 90-o aiaeia aunieay eioeyoeey noaea aaaeiaeoae
yeiiiie/aneie e
– 8 –
iieeoe/aneie i?iaeaiie. Ana iiiaiia?acea eioa?i?aoaoeee i?e/ei
?inneeneie eioeyoeee iiaeii naanoe e aeaoi e?aeiei oi/eai c?aiey:
eioeyoeey eiaao iaiiiaoa?ioth eee, ii e?aeiae ia?a, ia oieueei
iiiaoa?ioth i?e?iaeo;
eioeyoeey yaeyaony iiiaoa?iui yaeaieai.
No?oeoo?a ?inneeneie yeiiiieee ia iicaieyao auno?i iiaaaeeoue
eioeyoeeth e ia?aeaao
?inneth ia aiaeu nouanoaiaaiey a oneiaeyo aunieie eioeyoeee.
Caeeth/aiea.
Eioeyoeey i?aaenoaaeyao niaie iaeio ec iaeaieaa ino?uo i?iaeai
nia?aiaiiiai ?acaeoey yeiiiieee ai iiiaeo no?aiao ie?a. Eioeyoeey
io?eoeaoaeueii aeeyao ia ana noi?iiu aeecie iauanoaa. Iia iaanoeaieaaao
?acoeueoaou o?oaea, oie/oiaeaao naa?aaeaiey th?eaee/aneeo e oece/aneeo
eeoe, i?aiyonoaoao aeieain?i/iui eiaanoeoeeyi e yeiiiie/aneiio ?inoo.
Aunieay eioeyoeey ?ac?ooaao aeaiaaeioth nenoaio, i?iaioee?oao aaanoai
iaoeeiiaeueiiai eaieoaea ca a?aieoeo, ineaaeyao iaoeeiiaeueioth aaethoo,
niinianoaoao aa auoaniaieth ai aioo?aiiai ia?auaiee eiino?aiiie
aaethoie, iiae?uaaao aiciiaeiinoe oeiaine?iaaiey ainoaea?noaaiiiai
athaeaeaoa. Eioeyoeey yaeyaony naiui yooaeoeaiui n?aaenoaii
ia?a?ani?aaeaeaiey iaoeeiiaeueiiai aiaaonoaa – io aieaa aaaeiuo neiaa
iauanoaa e aieaa aiaaoui, oneeeaay oai naiui aai nioeeaeueiia
?anneiaiea.
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