EE?ANUeEEE IAOe?IIAEUeIEE OI?AA?NEOAO AOAe?AIEOeOAA ? A?O?OAEOO?E

Aei?ioaiei Ia?aa?eoa Ieeiea?aia

OAeE 69.003:336.532

Oi?aae?iiy ?iaanoeoe?eiei i?iaeoii c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo

Niaoe?aeuei?noue 08.06.01 — Aeiiii?ea i?aei?e?inoaa oa i?aai?caoe?y
ae?iaieoeoaa

(oaoi?/i? iaoee)

Aaoi?aoa?ao

aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy

eaiaeeaeaoa oaoi?/ieo iaoe

EE?A — 1999

Aeena?oaoe?y ? ?oeiien

?iaioa aeeiiaia ia eaoaae?? nenoai aaoiiaoecaoe?? i?iaeooaaiiy oa
oi?aae?iiy Ee?anueeiai iaoe?iiaeueiiai oi?aa?neoaoo aoae?aieoeoaa ?
a?o?oaeoo?e

Iaoeiaee ea??aiee — aeieoi? oaoi?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani? Ieoaeeia A?oae?e
Noaiaiiae/, caa?aeoaa/ eaoaae?ith nenoai aaoiiaoecaoe?? i?iaeooaaiiy oa
oi?aae?iiy Ee?anueeiai iaoe?iiaeueiiai oi?aa?neoaoo aoae?aieoeoaa ?
a?o?oaeoo?e

Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe:

Aeieoi? aeiiii?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani? I?oaeuen Aieiaeeie? Ieaenaiae?iae/,
Ee?anueeee iaoe?iiaeueiee oi?aa?neoao aoae?aieoeoaa oa a?o?oaeoo?e,
aeeeaaea/ eaoaae?e Aeiiii?ee aoae?aieoeoaa.

Eaiaeeaeao oaoi?/ieo iaoe, Naaeianueeee Aieiaeeie? ?aaiiae/, Aea?aeaoae
Oe?a?ie Iaoeiai-aeine?aeiee ?inoeooo aoae?aaeueiiai ae?iaieoeoaa,
aaaeo/ee iaoeiaee ni?a?ia?oiee, caa?aeoaa/ a?aeae?eii I?aai?caoe??
aoae?aieoeoaa

I?ia?aeia onoaiiaa — I?eaei?i?ianueea aea?aeaaia aeaaeai?y aoae?aieoeoaa
oa a?o?oaeoo?e I?i?noa?noaa ina?oe Oe?a?ie, i. Aei?i?iiao?ianuee.

Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny “23” aa?aniy 1999?. a 15.00 aiaeei ia can?aeaii?
niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Ae 26.056.03 i?e Ee?anueeiio
iaoe?iiaeueiiio oi?aa?neoao? aoae?aieoeoaa ? a?o?oaeoo?e ca aae?anith:
252037, Ee?a-37, Iia?o?ioeionueeee i?iniaeo, 31.

C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoenue a a?ae?ioaoe? Ee?anueeiai
iaoe?iiaeueiiai oi?aa?neoaoo aoae?aieoeoaa ? a?o?oaeoo?e.

Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaiee “20” na?iiy 1999?.

A/aiee nae?aoa? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee

e. a. i., aeioeaio
Iiai?aeueoeaa A.I. CAAAEUeIA OA?AEOA?ENOEEA ?IAIOE

Aeiiii?/ia neooaoe?y a Oe?a?i? i?iaeiaaeo? ia?aaeeaaoe iaai? o?oaeiiu?.
Iaei??th ?c iaiao?aeieo oiia i?eieiaiiy oeueiai i?ioeano ? aeoea?caoe?y
?iaanoeoe?eii? ae?yeueiino?. Nueiaiaei? i?aei?e?inoai ia?aoai?eeiny a
iniiaio eaieo ?iaanoeoe?eii? aeoeaiino?, oiio ui cina?aaeeei a nia?
aaeeeo /anoeio o?iainiaeo ?ano?n?a.

Eai?oaeuei? aeeaaeaiiy — oea ?iaanoeoe?? o a?aeoai?aiiy iniiaieo
oiiae?a, aieiaieie neeaaeiaeie, yeeo aenooiathoue aoaeeiee ? nii?oaee.
Oaeei /eiii, ?iaanooaaiiy a i?iaeoe eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa iiaeia
?icaeyaeaoe ye iaeio c ia?oi/a?aiaeo caaea/ ia no/aniiio aoai? ?icaeoeo.

O ca’yceo c ?icaeoeii ?eieiaeo a?aeiinei a Oe?a?i?, i?aei?e?inoaai
aeiaiaeeoueny ?iaanooaaoe a eai?oaeueia aoae?aieoeoai a oiiaao
c?inoath/i? iaiaaiino? a iaea?aeaii? i/?eoaaiiai e?ioeaaiai i?eaooeo.
Oni?o ?iaanoeoe?eii? ae?yeueiino? iia’ycaiee ?c aecia/aiiyi
iioeiaeueiiai ni?aa?aeiioaiiy i?eionoeiiai ?eceeo ? i?eaooeo ii
eiie?aoiiio i?iaeoo.

Aeooaeuei?noue oaie.

Ei??iia ia?aaoaeiaa ainiiaea?nueeiai iaoai?cio, oi?i ? iaoiae?a
oi?aae?iiy i?iaeooaaiiyi ? aoae?aieoeoaii i?aae’yaey? i?eioeeiiai iia?
aeiiae aei ioe?iee aeo?ao ia an?o aoaiao ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo ia aac?
no/anii? ?ioi?iaoe?eii? oaoiieia??. ?aae?caoe?y oeeo aeiia
aaciina?aaeiuei iia’ycaia c ?icaeoeii oaoiieia?? oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoii, c
o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo. Iaaaeueia iio?aaa ?ic?iaee oaei? oaoiieia??
iaoiiaeaia cia/iei a?aenioeii i?iaeo?a, ui ia?aaeueee nai? caieaiiaai?
aeo?aoe.

?iaanoi? aai iaiaaeaea? i?iaeoo ia? iio?aao a iaoiaeao, aeai?eoiao ?
i?ia?aiieo i?iaeoeoao, ui, aeiiiiiaeooue a?aiioii ni?aaeoeny c
iinoaaeaiith i?iaeaiith. Oeei aecia/a?oueny aeooaeuei?noue ?ic?iaee
iaoiaeeee eiiieaenii? ioe?iee ?eceeo an?o aoai?a ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo
eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa, ?c ianooiiei noai?aiiyi aeai?eoio ?
i?ia?aie.

Ca’ycie ?iaioe c iaoeiaeie i?ia?aiaie, ieaiaie, oaiaie.

Aeena?oaoe?y iia’ycaia c i?ia?aiaie iaoeiaeo aeine?aeaeaiue EIOAA,
aeeiioaaeany a Iaoeia?e ?aae? ii eiiieaeni?e i?iaeai? “Aeiiii?ea
i?aei?e?inoa oa i?aai?caoe?y ae?iaieoeoaa”, o neeaae? iaoeiaiai iai?yieo
ii ea?oaaiith i?iaeoaie.

Iaoa ? caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy.

Iaoith ?iaioe ? ?ic?iaea iaoiaeeee e aeai?eoio ?ic?aooieo ?aae?ciaaieo
aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a, o oiae? ?aae?caoe?? ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo
eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa a i. Ee?a? ia aeaio oacao i?iaeooaaiiy ?
aoae?aieoeoaa, c o?aooaaiiyi ?iia??iino? eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo, ?c
ianooiiith i?ia?aiiith ?aae?caoe??th aeai?eoio.

O a?aeiia?aeiino? aei iaoe, iniiaieie caaea/aie ?:

Ii??aiyeueiee aiae?c aoai?a i?iaeoo ia i?aaeiao noeeueiino? ?oiueiio
?eceeo.

Aeyaeaiiy ? a?oioaaiiy /eiiee?a i?e?i- ? iae?ina?aaeiaeu, ui
aeeeeeathoue aeieeiaiiy ?eceeiaeo neooaoe?e o i?iaeo?.

Aecia/aiiy eiao?oe??io?a ?eceeo oa ?o ?iia??iinoae aeey i?iaeoo ? eiai
neeaaeiaeo, ye-oi: aeaiaioa?ii? ?iaioe, aoaio, ia?a??co (ui neeaaea?
aeo?aoe on?o ao?aeieo aei iueiai aoai?a).

Aecia/aiiy, c o?aooaaiiyi ?iia??iinoae eiao?oe??io?a ?eceeo,
?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a ii i?iaeoo ? eiai neeaaeiaei.

Noai?aiiy i?ia?aie aeey IAII, yea ia i?aenoaa? ae?iaeaii? iaoiaeeee
aeiiiiiaea ?iaanoi?o aecia/eoe ?iia??i?noue aeieeiaiiy ?aae?ciaaieo
i?iaeoieo aeo?ao, c o?aooaaiiyi eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo.

Iaoeiaa iiaecia iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a.

Aia?oa iaa?oioiaaii iia?aoe?iiaeueiee can?a aecia/aiiy e ia/eneaiiy
?eceeici?noo ?ia?o i?iaeoo, c o?aooaaiiyi ?oi?o
i?aai?caoe?eii-oaoiieia?/ieo ca’yce?a.

Iaea?aeaa iiaeaeueoee ?icaeoie can?a aecia/aiiy /eiiee?a i?e?i- ?
iae?ina?aaeiaeu cae?eniaiiy i?iaeoo.

Iaa?oioiaaii canoinoaaiiy a?ao?ea ?ooo eai?oaeo, ye i?inoi?iai-/aniai?
iiaeae? i?iaeoo.

Iaea?aeaa ?icaeoie iaoiae aenia?oieo ioe?iie aeey ?ic?aooieo
eiao?oe??ioa iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino? (aeeiai?/iino?) na?aaeiaeua.

Aia?oa cai?iiiiiaaia iaoiaeeea ?ic?aooieo ?iia??iino? ia?aaeuaiiy
caieaiiaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a, o oiae? ?aae?caoe?? i?iaeoo, c
o?aooaaiiyi eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo. Ii ?ic?iaeaiiio aeai?eoio noai?aia
i?ia?aia aeey IAII.

I?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a.

I?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a iieyaa? a ?ic?iaoe?
iaoiaeeee, aeai?eoio ? i?ia?aie ?ic?aooieo ?iia??iino? ia?aaeuaiiy
caieaiiaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a i?e ?aae?caoe?? ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo
eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa a i. Ee?a?, c o?aooaaiiyi eiao?oe??ioa
?eceeo. Oeei noai?th?oueny ?ino?oiaio oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoii.

Cai?iiiiiaai? a aeena?oaoe?? i?eioeeie oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoii, iaoiaee
?ic?aooieo eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo, iaoiae ?ic?aooieo aeo?ao ? ?oi?o
?iia??iinoae aeei?enoai? a Ath?i ?iaanoeoe?eieo i?iaeo?a Aea?aeaaiiai
i?aei?e?inoaa IIO “Oeaio?aeueiee i?iaeoiee ?inoeooo”, o AAO “o?ano
EE?ANIAOeAOAe” AIO ?4, oa o/aiaiio i?ioean? AOAAeA “AAE?I-EIEAAeAE” oa
EIOAA.

Iniaenoee aianie caeiaoaa/a.

Iniaenoee aianie caeiaoaa/a ? ?ic?iaea e aaeaioaoe?y n?oeiaiai a?ao?eo
i?iaeooaaiiy ? aoae?aieoeoaa ia’?eoa a i. Ee?a?; eeaneo?eaoe?y /eiiee?a
i?e?i- ? iae?ina?aaeiaeu; ?ic?aooiie eiao?oe??io?a iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino?
(aeeiai?/iino?) na?aaeiaeua iaoiaeii aenia?oieo ioe?iie; aecia/aiiy
caniao ?ic?aooieo ?eceeici?noo ?ia?o i?iaeoo; iaoiaeeea, aecia/aiiy
?iia??iinoae ia?aaeuaiiy aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a c aeei?enoaiiyi iiaieo a?oi
iiae?e; noai?aiiy aeai?eoio ? i?ia?aie ?ic?aooieo ia?aaeuaiiy aeo?ao
?iaanoi?a c o?aooaaiiyi eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo.

Ai?iaaoe?y ?acoeueoao?a aeena?oaoe??.

?acoeueoaoe aeine?aeaeaiue ii?eethaeiai? a aeiiia?aeyo ia 57-e, 58-e,
59-e, 60-e iaoeiai-oaoi?/ieo eiioa?aioe?yo EIOAA oa ia nai?ia??
“I?iaeaie no/anieo ?ioi?iaoe?eieo oaoiieia?e”, ui c 1999 ?. ae?? i?e
eaoaae?? Nenoai aaoiiaoecaoe?? i?iaeooaaiiy oa oi?aae?iiy EIOAA.
Aeniiaee noaaeai? naeoe??th NAIO.

Ioae?eaoe??.

Ii oai? aeena?oaoe?? iioae?eiaai? ?iaioe [1-8]. Caeiaoaa/o iniaenoi
iaeaaeeoue: o ?iaio? [3] — ci?no oac, caaea/ oa ooieoe?e ?iaanoeoe?eiiai
i?iaeoo; o ?iaio? [6] — aeai?eoi ?ic?aooieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a.

No?oeoo?a e ianya ?iaioe.

Aeena?oaoe?y neeaaea?oueny c anooio, /ioe?ueio ?icae?e?a, aeniiae?a,
nieneo aeei?enoaieo aeaea?ae ? 6 aeiaeaoe?a. Ci?no aeeeaaeaii ia 147
noi??ieao eiii’thoa?iiai oaenoo, o oiio /ene? 10 oaaeeoeyo ? 16
iaethieao. A?ae?ia?ao?y aeeth/a? 124 iacae ia 12 noi??ieao.

INIIAIEE CI?NO ?IAIOE

I?iaeaia ?eceeo ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo aeey ?iaanoi?a, ia oacao
i?iaeooaaiiy ? aoae?aieoeoaa, neeaaea?oueny a iiaeeeaino? iaiaea?aeaiiy
/anoeiai aai oe?eeii i?eaooeo o ?acoeueoao? eiai aeeiiaiiy. I?iaeaia
?eceeo ?iaanoeoe?eii? ae?yeueiino? ia? aea? aaaeeea? neeaaeia?:

aenie? iaiaaiino? ?eieo acaaae? ? eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa a Oe?a?i?
iniaeeai. ?iicaiiee ?iaanoi? caieooa?oueny a iueiio;

a?o/eciyi? i?aei?e?ioe?, ui iiaeooue aooe i?eoyaioo? a yeino?
eiinoeueoaio?a, ia iathoue o nai?io ?icii?yaeaeaii? iaoiaee e aeai?eoie
ioe?iee ??aiy ? ?ici??o ?eceeo ia?aaeuaiiy caieaiiaaieo aeo?ao ii
i?iaeoo.

??oaiiy i?iaeaie iioeiaeueiiai ni?aa?aeiioaiiy ?eceeo ? i?eaooeo
?iaanooaaiiy aena?oeai? a ?iaioao ca?oa?aeieo aaoi??a Aeae. ?. O?ena, O.
Iaeoa, Aeae. Iaeiaia, I. Ii?aaiooa?ia, A. Ia?eia?ooea, Aeae. Oia?ia, A.
Oa?ia.

Ieoaiiy ?eceeieia?? aena?oeththoue A?oe?inuee?e A.A., Ia?oain I.A.,
ssno?ainueeee I.?.

I?iaeaie ?eceeo ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeooaaiiy oi?eaeeny o nai?o ?iaioao
Oaa/oe A.ss., ?iaiae?i I.N., Aieei A.O., Ooi?e?i N.E. Iae?e ?eceeo i?e
oi?aae?ii? i?iaeoaie ?icaeyaeaee Oaie?i A.Ae., Aoooaa N.Ae., Ii?icia
A.A.

AEiaeiee ?c caaaeaieo aaoi??a ia ?icaeyaea? aniaeo?a oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoii
c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo ia?aaeuaiiy caieaiiaaieo aeo?ao.

Oe?eani?yiiaaia ae?yeuei?noue ?iaanoi?a iia’ycaia c ??oaiiyi
aeno?aiaeueieo caaea/. Iiaeae? ? iaoiaee ??oaiiy oiiaieo aeno?aiaeueieo
caaea/ ae?eyoueny ia 2 iniiaieo iai?yiee: aeaoa?i?i?ci ?
noioanoe/i?noue. A?aeiia?aeii aei ieo iaoiaee ioe?iee ?eceeo aeeaaeaiiy
eai?oaeo a i?iaeo ae?eyoueny ia 3 a?oie: 1) ?c aeaoa?i?i?nonueeei
i?aeoiaeii, 2) o?, ui o?aaiaioa?ii aeei?enoiaothoue oai??th ?iia??iinoae
? 3) o?, ui caniiaai? ia aac? eiia??iiai ?iciiae?eo aeaieo.

Iaoiaee 1-i? a?oie canoiniaothoueny aeey i?eeiyooy ??oaiue i?i
eai?oaeiaeeaaeaiiy a aoae?aieoeoai aoaeeie?a aai aenieoaoaoe?th
nii?oaeaeaiue. An? iaoiaee aeathoue ii??aiyi? ?acoeueoaoe. ?o iiaeia
oni?oii canoiniaoaaoe i?e iacia/i?e ci?i? ao?aeieo aeaieo ? iieaciee?a
aa?oino?. Caaaeueiei iaaeie?eii oeeo iaoiae?a aenooia? oa, ui iaee?au?
ioe?iee ao?aeieo ia?aiao??a ni?eeiathoueny ye aeinoia??i?, a ?acoeueoaoe
iiaeathoueny a aeaoa?i?i?nonueeeo iieacieeao, oiaoi ia a?aoiao?oueny
/eiiee aeiaaeeiaino? i?ioeano, ui oe?eeii ia i?eeiyoii a ?eieiaeo
oiiaao.

Iaaeie?e iaoiae?a 2-? a?oie -iaiaaeai?noue o?aooaaiiy aeaiaioa
aeiaaeeiaino? i?e aeai?? ?iaanoeoe?eii? iie?oeee. Oea iiaea i?ecaanoe
aei ia?ae?o/oaaiiy ?acoeueoaoo aai iaa?oue aei i?eioeeiiai c?aaeeeaiai
??oaiiy.

Eiia??iee i?aeo?ae aei aiae?co ?iaanoeoe?eii? neooaoe??, ui
aeei?enoiaothoue o iaoiaeao 3-i? a?oie, iaea?eueoa ia?niaeoeaiee, oiio
ui ?icaeyaea? ?? a?eueo aeaoaeueii ? ni?ey? aeinoaoiuei iaa?oioiaaiiio
i?eeiyooth ??oaiue. Aiae?c ?ia?o ??iie’?aa TH.I., Aioaiaa?/thna E.A.,
Aiionoa TH.A. ? ?i. aeicaieea c?iaeoe aeniiaie i?i oa, ui iaeaooi?
?eceeieia?? e?e?oueny a ?icaeoeo iaoiae?a oai??? ?iia??iinoae ?
iaoaiaoe/ii? noaoenoeee, ui eaaeaa canoiniaothoueny ia nueiaiaei?oi?e
aeaiue oiane?aeie a?aenooiino? aeinoaoi?o aeey ii?aoethaaiiy ianya?a
noaoenoe/ieo aeaieo, ui noinothoueny ?iaanoeoe?eii? ae?yeueiino? a
aoae?aaeuei?e iaeano?. Iaeia c iiaeeeainoae canoinoaaiiy oeeo iaoiae?a
?icaeyiooa a aeena?oaoe?ei?e ?iaio?.

A aeaiee /an, ia ?eieo i?ia?aiiiai caaacia/aiiy Oe?a?ie, ciaeoee
aeinoaoiuei oe?iea canoinoaaiiy eiii’thoa?i? nenoaie oi?aae?iiy
i?iaeoaie Iai?eeeaae: Project Scheduler, CA-Super Project, Primavera
Project Planner, Monte Carlo, Sure Track Project. ?oi?e caaaeueiee
iaaeie?e — iaiiaeeea?noue iiaii? aaeaioaoe?? caei?aeiiieo i?aeoiae?a
oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoaie aei a?o/eciyii? i?aeoeee. O a?o/eciyiiio iiaeoe?
Project Expert aiae?c cae?enith?oueny eeoa ia aac? aenia?oieo ioe?iie. ?
caaaeueiee iaaeie?e an?o i?ia?aiieo i?iaeoeo?a — oea ?oiy i???ioaoe?y ia
a?cian-i?iaeo o naiiio oe?ieiio ?icoi?ii?.

Ia i?aenoaa? aiae?co ?ia?o ?aci?/aiei A., Ai?y?iiaa TH., iaoa??ae?a
I?aeia?iaeii? anioe?aoe?? oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoaie ? I?aeia?iaeiiai aaieo
?aeiino?oeoe?? oa ?icaeoeo cai?iiiiiaaiee aeeoo?aee oeeee i?iaeoo a
aoae?aieoeoa? c 7 oac. Aaeoccth aeine?aeaeaiiy aeena?oaoe?? ? aea? oace:
i?iaeooaaiiy ? aoae?aieoeoai. A?aeiia?aeii aei ii?iaoeaii-i?aaiaeo
aeieoiaio?a, ui ?aaeaiaioothoue i?iaeooaaiiy ? aoae?aieoeoai, oe? aea?
oace no?oeoo?iaai? ia 10 aoai?a.

O yeino? iiaeae? aea/aiiy ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo i?eeiyoee n?oeiaee
a?ao?e. Oaca i?iaeooaaiiy i?noeoue o nia? 8 aoai?a ? 130 ?ia?o; oaca
aoae?aieoeoaa a?aeiia?aeii 2 ? 40.

O oaaeeoe? 1 iaaaaeai? ?acoeueoaoe ?aiaee?oaaiiy aoai?a i?iaeoo ii
nooiaith ?eceeo, ui aieeaa? ia ieo, aaeaeaaoiiai ?ici??ai aeo?ao
?iaanoi?a. ?aia ??aiee 1 i?enai?iee aoaio, ?eceeia? aieeae ia yeee
aoaeooue iaea?eueoa iaaacia/i? aeey ?iaanoi?a, a c ?inoii ?aia?a oaea
iaaaciaea aoaea ciaiooaaoeny.

Oaaeeoey 1

?aiae aoai?a ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo ii nooiaith ?eceeo.

? aoaio Iaeiaioaaiiy aoaio ?aia

1. Ca?? aeo?aeieo aeaieo 6

2. ?ic?iaea ane?ciiai i?iaeoo 3

3. Ocaiaeaeaiiy i?noey ?ici?uaiiy ia’?eoa 6

4. Aeica?e ia ciin caeaieo ianaaeaeaiue 4

5. ?ic?iaea, ocaiaeaeaiiy, caoeno i?iaeoo 2

6. ?ic?iaea oaiaea?a ? i?iaaaeaiiy oi?a?a 5

7. A?aeaaaeaiiy caiaeueii? ae?eyiee 5

8. Iaea?aeaiiy aeicaieo ia aoae?aieoeoai 6

9. Aoae?aieoeoai 1

10. Caea/a ia’?eoa a aenieoaoaoe?th 3

?eceeici?no — oa?aeoa?enoeea, yea aeanoeaa ?iaio?, aoaio aai ?ioiio
oiiaiiio oi?iae?ciaaiiio iin?th, yeiio aaeaeaaoi? ?ano?ne, ui iiaeooue
aooe ao?a/aieie /anoeiai aai oe?eeii ?iaanoi?ii, ca iaaieo oiia,
?iaiiaaieo ?eceeiaeie.

Aeey eiaeii? i-ie ?iaioe i?iaeoo, ia aac? ?ano?n?a, ui iiaeooue aooe
ao?a/ai? i?e iaei?aeoiiio ?? aeeiiaii?, ui iio?aao? ia?a?iaee, aecia/aii
o?e aeaee ?eceeici?noo:

Ri — ?eceeici?no i-ie ?iaioe;

R?i- ?eceeici?no i-ie ?iaioe, aecia/aiee c o?aooaaiiyi ?ai?oa aeeiiaieo
?ia?o;

RIi- ?eceeici?no i-ie ?iaioe, aecia/aiee c o?aooaaiiyi i?ci?oa aeeiiaieo
?ia?o, ui ciaoiaeyoueny c i?e a i?aai?caoe?eii-oaoiieia?/iiio ca’yceo.

Aeey eiaeiiai eiie?aoiiai ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo, ?iaanoi?o iaiao?aeii
ia aoai? ieaioaaiiy aeeiioaaoe ?ic?aooiee ?eceeici?noo ii
iaeaaaeeea?oei, ?c iiaeyaeo i?aai?caoe?eii-oaoiieia?/iiai ca’yceo,
?iaioai, ui aeicaieeoue aecia/eoe iaiao?aeiee caian ?aca?aieo eioo?a
aeey iie?eooy ?eceeo ?oiueiai iaei?aeoiiai aeeiiaiiy.

C iaoith aea/aiiy aieeao ciai?oiueiai na?aaeiaeua, ui aeeeeea? ?ecee, o
i?ioean? cae?eniaiiy ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo, ona na?aaeiaeua
aeaeiiiicothoue ia aea? noa?e – i?e?ina?aaeiaeua ? iae?ina?aaeiaeua.

I?e?ina?aaeiaeua — iiiyooy, ui ioiieth? yaeua, /eiieee, i?ae aieeaii aai
a oiiaao yeeo i?io?ea? aeaiaioa?ia ?iaioa.

Iae?ina?aaeiaeua — iiiyooy, ui ioiieth? yaeua, /eiieee, ui aieeaathoue
ia i?io?eaiiy aoaio, noaae?? aai anueiai ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo.

O oaaeeoe? 2 iiaeaia ???a?o?y 5 a?oi /eiiee?a aeae?eaieo noa?. C iaeyaeo
ia ?oi?e aca?iica’ycie, /eiieee i?e?ina?aaeiaeua (iicia/ai? /a?ac a, b,
c, d, e) — iinooiiai ia?a?inoathoue o /eiieee iae?ina?aaeiaeua
(iicia/ai? ye A, B, C, D, E).

Oaaeeoey 2

A?oioaaiiy /eiiee?a i?e?i- ? iae?ina?aaeiaeua ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo.

*eiieee

Iae?ina?aaeiaeua I?e?ina?aaeiaeua

A — caeiiiaeaa/i-i?aaiaee /eiiee a — /eiiee i?aaiai? ?aaeaiaioaoe??
aeeiioaaii? ?iaioe

A — /eiiee iayaiino? nenoaie aea?aeaaiiai e
aaei?i?no?aoeaii-ainiiaea?nueeiai aia?aoa b — i?inoi?iaee /eiiee

N — /eiiee iayaiino? nenoaie aaie?anueeeo ? o?iainiaeo caeeaae?a c —
/eiiee iniiaiiai aniaeoo oi?ioaaiiy ii/aoeiai? aa?oino?

D — /eiiee iayaiino? iaoeiai-oaoi?/iiai, ae?iaie/iai iioaioe?aeo
aea?aeaae, iayaiino? ?io?ano?oeoo?e, eiioi?eaoe?e d — /eiiee o?ce/ii?
oi?ie iin?y ?iaioe

A — eaae?iai-eaae?o?eaoe?eiee iioaioe?ae ?iai/i? neee, ii?aeueii-aoe/i?
i?aeaaeeie, ui ?niothoue o aea?aeaa? e -iia?aoi?e, ui iai?ioeththoue
i?e aeeiiaii? ?iaioe

Nooi?iue aeieeiaiiy ?eceeiai? neooaoe?? i?e aeeiiaii? ?iaioe, aoaio oei
a?eueoa, /ei iaioa ??aiiaaaa a?aeiia?aeii? noa?e aai i?iaiic ?acoeueoaoo
aeeiiaiiy oiiaiiai iin?y ?ano?no,

o caeaaeiino? a?ae aieeao eiaeiiai c 5 /eiiee?a.

Aeey aea/aiiy aieeao ?eceeiaiai na?aaeiaeua ia ?iaanoeoe?eiee i?iaeo
aeei?enoai? aea? iacaeaaei? iaoiaeeee: ia i?aenoaa? eiao?oe??ioa
iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino? e ?ioaa?iaaiiai iieacieea aeeiai?/iino? na?aaeiaeua;
ia i?aenoaa? noaoenoe/iiai eiao?oe??ioa, io?eiaiiai ia aac? aiae?co
noaoenoeee cae?eniaiiy i?iaeo?a aoae?aieoeoaa a i. Ee?a? ca i’youe
?ie?a.

Aenia?eiaioe iieacaee ?ica?aei?noue ?acoeueoao?a ?ic?aooieo aeo?ao
?iaanoi?a ia aac? 2-o iaoiaeee ia ??ai? 20%, ui ? i?eionoeiei aeey
oaeiai ?iaeo aeine?aeaeaiue.

Aecia/aiiy eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo ia i?aenoaa? 1-i? iaoiaeeee aaeiny ii
?iaioao ? aoaiai i?iaeoo ca aeiiiiiaith iaoiaeo aaciina?aaeiueiai
ioe?ithaaiiy ia iniia? ?iaeea?aeoaeueiiai iieooaaiiy aenia?o?a o
aeaeyae? aieaooaaiiy c ianooiiei ?aiaeoaaiiyi /eiiee?a ii c?inoath/eo
aaaao, ui cae?enith? i?iaiiceno i?ney iaea?aeaiiy aeaieo iieooaaiiy.
Ioe?ithaaany aieea eiaeiiai /eiieea i?e?ina?aaeiaeua ia ?iaioo,
iae?ina?aaeiaeua ia aoai. Io?eiai? aaeuei? iieacieee iacaai? iieacieeaie
aeeiai?/iino? na?aaeiaeua, ? ii iei i?ae?aoiaoaaany ?ioaa?iaaiee
na?aaeiueia?eoiaoe/iee iieaciee aeeiai?/iino? na?aaeiaeua. Aeey
c’ynoaaiiy nooiaith ocaiaeaeaiino? aeoiie aenia?o?a o iaaeao eiaeiiai
/eiieea ii aoaiai, aoee aecia/ai? noaoenoe/i? e aa?enoe/i? iieacieee.

O i?ia?aiiiio i?iaeoeo? iieaciee aeeiai?/iino? aoaio (N),
?ic?aoiao?oueny ia aac? iaio ?ioaa?iaaieo iieaciee?a (aaciina?aaeiuei ii
aoaio ? ii ?iaioao aoaio). I?aenoieiaee eiao?oe??io ?eceeo, aecia/aiee
ia i?aenoaa? eiao?oe??ioa iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino? na?aaeiaeua (K(N)), aoaea
?ic?aoiaoaaoeny ii oi?ioe?:

; (1)

aea — iaeneiaeueii iiaeeeaee eiao?oe??io ?eceeo ia?aaeuaiiy
caieaiiaaieo aeo?ao, i?eeiyoee ?iaanoi?ii (?icoiiee ?ecee) o
aeena?oaoe?? aei??aith? 2.

Aeey aecia/aiiy noaoenoe/iiai eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo, ca aeiiiiiaith
ae?oai? iaoiaeeee, aoea i?iaiae?ciaaia noaoenoeea, c?a?aia a
i?ae?icae?eao Aieiaiiai a?o?oaeoo?ii-ieaioaaeueiiai oi?aae?iiy i. Ee?aa,
i?i cae?eniaiiy i?iaeo?a aoae?aieoeoaa a noieeoe? ca ia??iae c 1994 ii
1998 ?. (1444 i?iaeo?a).

O aeena?oaoe??, o yeino? iieacieea ?eceeo ?iaanoi?a i?eeia?oueny
ia?aaeo?aoa a?ioiaiai ?ano?no, ia?aaeuaiiy ?aae?ciaaieo o oiae?
cae?eniaiiy i?iaeoo aeo?ao (S?E) iaae ieaiiaeie(SIE), ?oi?
ni?aa?aeiioaiiy iacaaia eiao?oe??ioii ?eceeo (E).

; (2)

Oiae? ?ecee (R) — oea iiaeeea?noue ao?aoe ?ano?n?a, oiaoi ia?aaeuaiiy
E›1.

; (3)

C o?aooaaiiyi i?eeiyoiai o ?iaio? ?ici??o ?icoiiiai ?eceeo, iaaeaie
aeine?aeaeaiiy noaoenoe/iiai eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo ? ?ioa?aae [1,2].
Caaaeyee iaiiaiio? ?ioi?iaoe??, o yeino? 3-ai cia/aiiy i?eeiyoa
na?aaeeia ?ioa?aaeo 1,5. C iie?ioaiiyi cai?o ?ioi?iaoeaii? noaoenoeee,
noaia iiaeeeaei o?ainoi?iaoe?y ?ic?iaeaiiai aeai?eoio i?ae iia?
cia/aiiy.

Eiaeiiio cia/aiith eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo iinoaaeaiee o a?aeiia?aei?noue
aecia/aiee ?acoeueoao oiaeo aeeiiaiiy i?iaeoo {1) caoeno ia
I?noiaoae?ai?e ?aae? /oiaoi iiceoeaiee ?acoeueoao onueiai eiiieaeno
iiaiaeaeaiue ? ooaa?aeaeaiue/, 2) caea/a a aenieoaoaoe?th}. Ii on?o
cia/aiiyo eiao?oe??io?a aecia/ai? noaoenoe/i? ?iia??iino? aeey 3-o
iaea?eueo aeo?aoieo aoai?a: II — iai (?ic?iaea ane?ciiai i?iaeoo), V-iai
(?ic?iaea, ocaiaeaeaiiy, caoeno i?iaeoo), IX-iai (aoae?aieoeoai).

Caaea/a aecia/aiiy noaoenoe/ieo ?iia??iinoae an?o aoai?a ae??oo?oueny ca
aeiiiiiaith iiiyoue ? oai?ai oai??? ?iia??iinoae. Aanue i?ino?? aoai?a
i?iaeoo ?icaeaa?oueny ia 3 ??aiy iiaieo a?oi iiae?e (iae?i??aiy,
iaoa??aiy ? i?e?i??aiy). Noia ?iia??iinoae aoai?a eiaeii? a?oie
aei??aith? 1.

(Pj5(y)(No)) — ?iia??i?noue noaoenoe/iiai eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo j-iai
aoaio (Ej(y)(No)) ? a?aeiia?aeiiai eiio ??aiy ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao
(Sj?E(y)(Co)) ciaoiaeeoueny c canoinoaaiiyi oai?aie iiiaeaiiy.

, (4)

aea — ?iia??i?noue aoaio, ui aoiaeeoue o iiaio a?oio iiae?e iae?i??aiy.

— ?iia??i?noue aoaio, ui aoiaeeoue o iiaio a?oio iiae?e iaoa??aiy.

— ?iia??i?noue Kj(y)(No) aeey a?aeiia?aeieo Sj?E(y)(No), aecia/aieo
noaoenoe/iei oeyoii ia i?e?i??ai?.

Eiie?aoia cia/aiiy ?iia??iinoae eiaeiiai aoaio, aeey i?aenoaiiaee o
oi?ioeo, aecia/a?oueny ii eaioethaeeao aoiaeaeaiiy aeine?aeaeoaaiiai
aoaio a iiai? a?oie.

Aecia/aiiy ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao j-iai ia?a??co ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo,
i?iaiaeeoueny neeaaeaiiyi aeo?ao ii aoaiao, ui aoiaeyoue aei ia?a??co,
?c ia?inoath/ei ?acoeueoaoii.

a) ia i?aenoaa? noaoenoe/iiai eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo:

; (5)

a) ia i?aenoaa? eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo aeeiai?/iino? (iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino?)
na?aaeiaeua:

; (6)

Caaaeyee iaiiaiioe ?ioi?iaoe??, ?iia??i?noue eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo
iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino? na?aaeiaeua i?eeiyoa ??aii? 1. Oiio ?ic?aooiie
?iia??iinoae aeo?ao ia?a??co aeeiio?oueny aeey noaoenoe/ieo
eiao?oe??io?a:

; (7)

aea.

Cia/aiiy aeo?ao X-ai ia?a??co a?aeiia?aea? i?aenoieiaei aeo?aoai ii
anueiio i?iaeoo.

A?aeiia?aeii aei eia?ee aeine?aeaeaiiy, eiaeia cia/aiiy noaoenoe/iiai
eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo ia? nai? cia/aiiy ?iia??iinoae, ui aecia/a?
?iia??i?noue (Sj?E(y)(Co)) ? (Sj?E(n)(Co)). Aeai?eoi, aeeeaaeaiee ia
iae.1, ia/eneth? an? iiaeeea? niieo/aiiy aeo?ao ? ?oi?o ?iia??iinoae ii
3-i iaea?eueoa ?eceeiaei aoaiai i?iaeoo. O iueiio oaeiae ia/eneth?oueny
/a?ac iaoaiaoe/ia i/?eoaaiiy iaea?eueoa eiia??ia cia/aiiy (Sj?E(n)(Co))
aeey oeeo niieo/aiue.

Aeey ?ic?iaee iaoaiaoe/ii? iiaeae?, ia’?eoii aiae?co i?eeiyoee ?oo
eai?oaeo ii aoaiai ? oacai i?iaeoo. O yeino? iaoaiaoe/iiai aia?aoa
i?eeiyoa oai??y ?iia??iinoae. O ?? oa?i?iao, ? a oa?i?iao oai???
iiiaeei, ?iaanoeoe?eiee i?iaeo ?icaeaa?oueny ia i?inoi?? aeaiaioa?ieo
iiae?e (, iaiaaeaiiio inyie aanoeen ? i?aeeiao, a?aeiia?aeii, /ano (T) ?
eai?oaeueieo aeeaaeaiue (S). A?ao?ee ieaiiaaieo (SIE) ? ?aae?ciaaieo
(S?E) aeo?ao aoaeothoueny ia aeene?aoiiio i?inoi?? aeaiaioa?ieo iiae?e c
iaeeieoeath ?iciiae?eo in? aanoeen o 1 aeaiue, in? i?aeeiao o 1 a?ioiao
iaeeieoeth.

Aeai? /eneia? in? iathoue cia/aiiy a?ae 0 aei + ( (aeey T) ? a?ae 0 aei
— ( (aeey S). Oi?ioaaiiy a?ao?e?a SIE ? S?E a?aeaoaa?oueny ia iniia?
i?eeiyooy aecia/aieo cia/aiue ia /eneiaeo inyo. Iiaeia aaaaeaoe, ui
a?ao?ee SIE ? S?E ? oii?yaeeoaaiiyi iiiaeeie aeiaaeeiaeo cia/aiue si?E
? s iIE, ui ? ae?aaeaiiyi aeiaaeeiaeo i?ioean?a. Iienaoe iieiaeaiiy
e?aiie si?E ? siIE iiaeia aecia/eaoe ?iia??i?noue i?eeiyooy oeo aai
?ioeo cia/aiue K= Si?E/ SiIE, oiaoi P{ Si?E/ SiIE>1} aai P{ K>1}.

Iaea?eueo iiaii oea iiaeia aoei a c?iaeoe, ciath/e ooieoe?th ?iciiae?eo
F(K)=P{K>1}. C iaeyaeo ia neaaeo nenoaiaoeciaai?noue aeiaaeeiaiai
i?ioeano oea iaei eiia??ii.

Aeey aecia/aiiy P{K>1} aeinoaoiuei ?yaeo ?iciiae?eo i?eaaaeaiiai a
oaaeeoe? 3.

Oaaeeoey 3

?yae ?iciiae?eo eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo.

K1 K2 K3 … Kn

P1 P2 P3 … Pn

Iae. 1. Noaia aeai?eoio ?ic?aooieo ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a.

O yeino? e?eoa???a ioe?iee ?eceeo ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo i?iiiiothoueny
oae?:

1. P{K>1} ca oiiae:

1.1 P{ K1(A}=X1 — aaeeeee ?ecee;

1.2 P{A(K2(B}=X2 — na?aaei?e ?ecee.

P{B>K3}=X3 — iaeee ?ecee.

2. Aaniethoi? iiaeeea? ao?aoe.(8)

aea ? aai

3. Iiaeeea? ao?aoe ii ia?a??cao ?c ia?inoath/ei ?acoeueoaoii.(9)

4. Iiaeeea? ao?aoe ii ie?aieo aoaiao i?iaeoo: (10)

5. Iiaeeea? ao?aoe i?eaaaeaieo ?ano?n?a ii aoaiao i?iaeoo:

.(11)

6. ?ecee i?eieiaiiy (aeieoaaiiy) ?iaanoeoe?e ii oi?n-iaaei?iei
ianoaaeiai:.(12)

7. Aeoiaey/e c oiiae, , iaoith ?iaanoeoe?e iaiao?aeii aaaaeaoe
iaenei?caoe?th i?eaooeo M(max, aai, ca oiiae D-const, i?i?i?caoe?th
?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao SE?E(min.

Ooieoe?th iaenei?caoe?? i/?eoaaiiai i?eaooeo iiaeia oyaeoe o aeaeyae?
nenoaie (13)

Nenoaia iaiaaeaiue:

1(K(2; (14)

c1(; (15)

aea (16)

(17)

E{} — iaoaiaoe/ia i/?eoaaiiy aeiaaeeiai? aaee/eie;

D — i?eaooie i?aei?e?inoaa-?iaanoi?a a?ae ?aae?caoe?? i?iaeoeoe??
i?iaeoo (iai?eeeaae i?iaeaae? iiaoaeiaaiiai aeeoea);

A — o?ce/iee iieaciee, ?c ?ic?aooieo yeiai ioe?ith?oueny i?iaeaiee
i?iaeoeo (ea. i aeey aeeoea, e?aeei-i?noea aeey
e?eoaaeueii-i?io?eaeoe/ieo caeeaae?a ? o.i.);

c1 — ?eieiaa oe?ia o?ce/iiai iieacieea (iai?eeeaae: aa?o?noue aeeoeiaiai
ea. i ia ?eieo i. Ee?aa, ia iiiaio i?iaeaaeo aeeoeiaiai aoaeeieo);

M — i?eaooie a?ae ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo, io?eiaiee i?aei?e?inoaii;

A aeey i?i?i?caoe?? ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao iiaeia canoinoaaoe oaeee
i?aeo?ae:

Iiaeia caienaoe, ui ?aae?ciaai? aeo?aoe k — iai ia?a??co ? ooieoe?y
eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo ii j — oiio aoaio: (ooieoe?y iioei?caoe??) (18).

AENIIAEE

A Oe?a?i?, ?nio? iaaia i?aaiaa aaca cae?eniaiiy ?iaanoeoe?eieo i?iaeo?a.
?icaeoie aeaiiai naeoi?a ?eieo aaeueio?oueny aiane?aeie a?aenooiino?
iaoiaeee aecia/aiiy, o?aooaaiiy ? ciaioaiiy ?eceeiaeo aieea?a ia i?iaeo.
I?i oea na?ae/eoue oie oaeo, ui ca ia??iae 1994-1998 ?. ?. o?eueee 22%
i?iaeo?a aoae?aieoeoaa a i. Ee?a? caaa?oeeeny a oa?i?i ca ieaiii.
Iaei??th ?c iaeaaaeeea?oeo i?e/ei oaeiai iecueeiai ?acoeueoaoo ? ??cea
i?aeaeuaiiy /eiieea ?eceeo ?iaanooaaiiy a i?iaeoe aoae?aieoeoaa, o
ca’yceo c ia?aoiaeii Oe?a?ie a?ae ieaiiaeo iaoiae?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy aei
?eieiaeo. ?ic?iaea iaoiaeeee, aeai?eoio ? i?ia?aiiiai i?iaeoeoo ioe?iee
?iia??iinoae ?eceeo ia?aaeuaiiy ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a iaae
caieaiiaaieie iio?aao? aeei?enoaiiy iiaeeeainoae no/anieo eiii’thoa?ieo
oaoiieia?e, ui aeicaieeoue cia/ii i?aeaeueoe iaoeiao iaa?oioiaai?noue ?
aoaeoeai?noue cai?iiiiiaaii? iaoiaeeee ca ?aooiie aea/aiiy i?iaeoo ia
??cieo ??aiyo aeaeiiiiceoe??, ?c ianooiiei iaea?aeaiiyi ?ioaa?iaaieo
ioe?iie.

O?aaeeoe?eii iiaeaeeth oyaeaiiy ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo ? n?oeiaee
a?ao?e. Aeey caaea/? aecia/aiiy ?ecee?a ?iaanoi?a iaea?eueoee ?ioa?an
i?aaenoaaey? aiae?c aeaio iniiaieo oac ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo
(i?iaeooaaiiy ? aoae?aieoeoaa). N?oeiaee a?ao?e iio?aao? aaeaioaoe??
a?aeiia?aeii aei ii?iaoeaii-i?aaiaeo aeieoiaio?a, ui ?aaeaiaioothoue
o?ae i?iaeooaaiiy ? aoae?aieoeoaa a oiiaao i. Ee?aa. O yeino?
e?euee?niiai iieacieea ?eceeo aeioe?eueii aeei?enoiaoaaoe cai?iiiiiaaiee
o aeena?oaoe?? can?a aecia/aiiy e ia/eneaiiy ?eceeici?noo ?ia?o
?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo, c o?aooaaiiyi ?oi?o
i?aai?caoe?eii-oaoiieia?/ieo ca’yce?a.

Ciai?oi? na?aaeiaeua i?io?eaiiy i?iaeoo ( oea iaeei ?c aieiaieo aeaea?ae
?eceeo ?iaanooaaiiy. C iaoith iieaaoaiiy iiooeo eiai ?ioaa?iaaiiai
aieeao na?aaeiaeua iio??aii no?oeoo?oaaoe ia aea? noa?e:
iae?ina?aaeiaeua ? i?e?ina?aaeiaeua. Iio?i eiaeio noa?o eeaneo?eoaaoe ia
i’youe aca?iicaeaaeieo /eiiee?a, ii eio?ei caiaeii, aeine?aeaeoaaoe e
?ioaa?oaaoe aieeae i?e?ina?aaeiaeua ia ??ai? ?iaioe n?oeiaiai a?ao?ea ?
iae?ina?aaeiaeua ia ??ai? aoaio.

A oiiaao iaiiaiioe ?ioi?iaoe??, i?e aecia/aii? e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a
aieeao noa? ia i?iaeo, canoinoaaiiy iaoiae?a aenia?oiiai iieooaaiiy e
ioe?ithaaiiy aeicaiey? i?i?aiaeoaaoe ioe?iee aaa /eiiee?a ca aeaieie
iieooaaiiy aenia?o?a ??ciiiai?oiiai nooiaith ocaiaeaeaiino?.

Aeey iieno ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?ioeano oi?ioee ?acoeueoao aea? aeei?enoaiiy
iaoiae?a oai??? ?iia??iinoae, oai??? aeiaaeeiaeo i?ioean?a ?
iaoaiaoe/ii? noaoenoeee. Neeaaeia? oeueiai iaoaiaoe/iiai aia?aoa
iio?aaothoue aaeaioaoe?? aeey iiaeaiiy ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo.

I?inoi?iai-/aniaa iiaeaeue ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo, iiaoaeiaaia ia
i?inoi?? aeaiaioa?ieo iiae?e, aeicaiey? aeine?aeaeoaaoe caaea/o
aecia/aiiy ?iia??iinoae ca?ao a?ao?ea ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a c
iii?iaeii (a?ao?eii ieaiiaaieo aeo?ao), yea ? eeane/iith caaea/ath
oai??? ?iia??iinoae. Aeieeath/?, aiane?aeie aeeiai?/iino? na?aaeiaeua,
a?aeoeeaiiy cai?iiiiiaaii eaae?o?eoaaoe ye eiao?oe??io ?eceeo.

Oi?iae?caoe?y ia/eneaiiy eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo aeey /ioe?ueio ??ai?a
aeaeiiiiceoe?? i?iaeoo (aeaiaioa?ii? ?iaioe, aoaio, ia?a??co, onueiai
i?iaeoo) aea? iiaeeea?noue ia ?oi?e iniia? iiaoaeoaaoe noaio ia/eneaiue
?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao (? ?oi?o ?iia??iinoae) c o?aooaaiiyi eiao?oe??ioa
?eceeo aeey an?o ??ai?a.

Iaoiaeieia?/iith iniiaith oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoii aeioe?eueii aaaaeaoe
?ic?iaeaiee i?aeoe/iee i?aeo?ae aei aecia/aiiy eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo ia
iniia? aiae?co noaoenoe/ieo aeaieo, ui a?aeaeaathoue o?ae aeeiiaiiy
i?iaeo?a aoae?aieoeoaa a i. Ee?a? ca ia??iae ?c 1994 ii 1998 ?. ?., ye?
c?a?ai? o i?ae?icae?eao Aieiaiiai a?o?oaeoo?ii-ieaioaaeueiiai
oi?aae?iiy. Ia aac? neeaaeaii? iaoiaeeee ?iaanoi?o i?iiiio?oueny c?acie
ii?yaeeo oi?aae?iiy i?iaeoii c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo.

O?noue e?eoa???a oa aea? ooieoe?? iioei?caoe?? (ia aac? iaenei?caoe??
i/?eoaaiiai i?eaooeo aai i?i?i?caoe?? ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a ii
i?iaeoo) aeicaieythoue aeinoaoiuei iiaii ioe?ieoe ?ecee i?iaeoo.

Iaea?aeai? noaoenoe/i? caeaaeiino? aeieeiaiiy ia?aaeuaiiy ii/aoeiai?
aa?oino? i?iaeoo, iiaoaeiaai? ia aac? a?oioaaiiy aoai?a i?iaeoo a iiai?
a?oie iiae?e ? canoinoaaiiy oai?ai oai??? ?iia??iinoae, aeicaieeee
io?eiaoe ?iia??iino? ?eceeo ?iaanoi?a ii aoaiao (ia?a??cao) i?iaeoo a 1,
1,5 ? 2 ?ace.

Iniiaieie ?acoeueoaoaie aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe ? iaoiaeeea, aeai?eoi ?
i?ia?aia aeey IAII ?ic?aooieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a, a i?ioean? ?aae?caoe??
?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo, c o?aooaaiiyi ?iia??iinoae eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo,
ui aeioe?eueii aeei?enoiaoaaoe i?e aecia/aii? iiaeeeaeo aeo?ao
?iaanooaaiiy a i?iaeoe a aaeoc? eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa i. Ee?aa.

Aenia?eiaioaeueia ia?aa??ea ? ai?iaaaeaeaiiy ?acoeueoao?a aeine?aeaeaiue
a i?aeoeeo ?iaioe ie?aieo aoae?aaeueieo ? i?iaeoieo o??i i. Ee?aa
aeicaieeee: 1) ioe?ieoe ?iaanoeoe?eio i?eaaaeea?noue i?iaeo?a ?
ia’?eoeai? oiiae ?iaanooaaiiy; 2) caaacia/eoe aeiiii?th aeo?ao ia an?o
noaae?yo ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo ca ?aooiie aeeeth/aiiy iaiaa?oioiaaiiai
ona?aaeiaiiy ?ic?aooieiaeo eiao?oe??io?a, ui ia a?aoiaothoue iieaciee
?eceeo, a caeaaeiino? a?ae oei?a ia’?eo?a ? eiie?aoieo oiia i?iaeooaaiiy
? aoae?aieoeoaa; 3) nei?ioeoe oa?i?ie ? i?aeaeueoe ye?noue i?iaeooaaiiy
? aoae?aieoeoaa; 4) ca?eueoeoe ianyae aeeiiaieo aoae?aaeueii-iiioaaeieo
?ia?o ia 18,3%, i?e cieaeaii? ?oiuei? nia?aa?oino? a na?aaeiueiio ia
3,2%. Aeeeaaeaiee can?a aecia/aiiy eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo i?iaeoo
aeioe?eueii aeei?enoiaoaaoe a i?aeoeoe? i?iaeooaaiiy ? aoae?aieoeoaa.

Aeai?eoi, ui aeeeaaeaiee a ?iaio?, aeiiiiaaa? ?iaanoi?o, ii/eiath/? c?
noaae?? ieaioaaiiy, ia i?aenoaa? ?ic?aooie?a eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo, ui
aeieea? i?ae aieeaii ioi/oth/iai na?aaeiaeua e ?ioeo /eiiee?a, aecia/eoe
?ici?? ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao, ?, oei naiei, ia?aaeaa/eoe ?ici?? ?aca?aieo
eioo?a, aeey eiiiainaoe?? iane?aee?a aieeao ?eceeo ia i?iaeo, oa
noi?ioaaoe ia?ae?e caiia?aeieo aai eiiiainoth/eo ae?e, ui aoaeooue
?aae?ciaai? i?e aeieeiaii? ?eceeiaeo neooaoe?e. Ioaea aeai?eoi, ui
cai?iiiiiaaiee, aeicaiey? cieceoe caoaiee aieea ?eceeo ia i?iaeo.

Aeei?enoaiiy ?ic?iaeaiiai i?ia?aiiiai eiiieaeno a iaa/aeueiiio i?ioean?
ni?ey? cae??ieaiith nooaeaioaie ciaiue ? iaea?aeaiith iaae/ie a aaeoc?
o?iainiaiai iaiaaeaeiaioo, ?iaanoeoe?eiiai iaiaaeaeiaioo ? i?eeiyooy
??oaiue i?e oi?aae?ii? ?eceeaie ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo.

Io?eiai? ?acoeueoaoe aeine?aeaeaiue iieacaee, ui aeioe?eueii
i?iaeiaaeeoe iaoeia? aeine?aeaeaiiy ca aeaiia iai?yieaie: 1) aecia/aiiy
?iia??iinoae eiao?oe??io?a ?eceeo aeeiai?/iino? (iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino?)
na?aaeiaeua; ? 2) aecia/aiiy cia/aiue noaoenoe/ieo eiao?oe??io?a ?eceeo
ona?aaeei? ?ioa?aae?a [1,1.5] [1.5,2] ? ?oi?o ?iia??iinoae.

NIENIE IIOAE?EIAAIEO AAOI?II I?AOeUe CA OAIITH AeENA?OAOe??

Aei?ioaiei I. I. Aiae?c ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?iaeoo a aoae?aieoeoa? c iaoith
aeyaeaiiy i?iaeoieo ?ecee?a. // Aeni?an-iiaeie: iaoea, oaoi?ea,
ae?iaieoeoai. — E.: Oe??IO?, 1997. — ?21. — n.31-33.

Aei?ioaiei I. I. A?aoiaiae?oe/ia oyaeaiiy ?iaanoeoe?eiiai i?ioeano. //
Aeni?an-iiaeie: iaoea, oaoi?ea, ae?iaieoeoai. — E.: Oe??IO?, 1997. —
?22. — n.35-36.

Aei?ioaiei I. I., Aeaooy?the Ae.?. Aiae?c noaae?e i?iaeoiiai oeeeeo c
iaoith aeyaeaiiy ?eceeiaeo aieea?a. // Aeni?an-iiaeie: iaoea, oaoi?ea,
ae?iaieoeoai. — E.: Oe??IO?, 1997. — ?22. — n.33-35.

Aei?ioaiei I. I. Noaoenoe/iee aiae?c i?iaeaie ?ecee?a ?iaanoeoe?eieo
i?iaeo?a eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa. // Aoae?aieoeoai Oe?a?ie. — 1999.
— ?2. — n.6.

Aei?ioaiei I. I., Aaeyaa TH. A. Aeai?eoi au/eneaiey cao?ao eiaanoi?a ii
na/aieyi eiaanoeoeeiiiiai i?ioeanna. // Aaoiiaoecaoe?y ae?iaie/eo
i?ioean?a. — 1999. — ?2(9). — n.89-91.

Aei?ioaiei I. I. Iaoaiaoe/ia iiaeaeue ?iaanoeoe?eiiai oeeeeo, ye iniiaa
aeine?aeaeaiiy ?eceeiaeo aieea?a.// Oeyoe i?aeaeuaiiy aoaeoeaiino?
aoae?aieoeoaa a oiiaao oi?ioaaiiy ?eieiaeo a?aeiinei. — E.: EIOAA, —
1999. — Aeione 6. — n. 71-77.

Aei?ioaiei I. I. Noaoenoe/iee i?aeo?ae aei aecia/aiiy /eneiaeo cia/aiue
eiao?oe??io?a ?eceeo a ?iaanoeoe?eieo i?ioeanao. // Oeyoe i?aeaeuaiiy
aoaeoeaiino? aoae?aieoeoaa a oiiaao oi?ioaaiiy ?eieiaeo a?aeiinei — E.:
EIOAA, — 1999. — Aeione 7. — n. 9-15.

Aei?ioaiei I. I. Ii??aiyeueiee aiae?c oac ? aoai?a ?iaanoeoe?eiiai
i?iaeoo ii nooiaith ?eceeo. // Oeyoe i?aeaeuaiiy aoaeoeaiino?
aoae?aieoeoaa a oiiaao oi?ioaaiiy ?eieiaeo a?aeiinei — E.: EIOAA, —
1999. — Aeione 6. — n. 85-90.

Aiioaoe?y

Aei?ioaiei I.I. Oi?aae?iiy ?iaanoeoe?eiei i?iaeoii c o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo.
— ?oeiien.

Aeena?oaoe?y ia caeiaoooy o/aiiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa oaoi?/ieo iaoe ca
niaoe?aeuei?noth 08.06.01 — aeiiii?ea i?aei?e?inoaa oa i?aai?caoe?y
ae?iaieoeoaa (oaoi?/i? iaoee). — Ee?anueeee iaoe?iiaeueiee oi?aa?neoao
aoae?aieoeoaa e a?o?oaeoo?e, Ee?a, 1999.

Aeena?oaoe?y i?enay/aia i?iaeai? aecia/aiiy ?iia??iinoae ? eiao?oe??io?a
?eceeo ia?aaeuaiiy aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a, o oiae? ?aae?caoe?? ?iaanoeoe?eieo
i?iaeo?a eai?oaeueiiai aoae?aieoeoaa i. Ee?aa, iaae caieaiiaaieie
aeo?aoaie. Aeey iiooeo ?iia??iinoae o aeena?oaoe?? cai?iiiiiaaiee
i?eioeei a?oioaaiiy aoai?a i?iaeoo a iiai? a?oie iiae?e. Eiao?oe??io
?eceeo ?ic?aoiao?oueny ca aeiiiiiaith aeaio iacaeaaeieo iaoiaeee:
?ic?aooieo eiao?oe??ioa ?eceeo iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino? na?aaeiaeua oa
noaoenoe/iiai eiao?oe??ioo ?eceeo. ?iaanoeoe?eia na?aaeiaeua
aeaeiiiiciaaii ia i?e?ina?aaeiaeua ? iae?ina?aaeiaeua. ?ic?iaeai?
aeai?eoi ? i?ia?aie ?ic?aooieo ?aae?ciaaieo aeo?ao ?iaanoi?a c
o?aooaaiiyi ?eceeo.

Iniiai? ?acoeueoaoe ?iaioe ciaeoee canoinoaaiiy a A?I AeI IIO
“Oeaio?aeueiee i?iaeoiee ?inoeooo”, o AIO?4 AAO “o?ano EE?ANIAOeAOAe” ?
a iaa/aeueiiio i?ioean?.

Eeth/ia? neiaa: i?eioeei a?oioaaiiy, iiai? a?oie iiae?e, eiao?oe??io
?eceeo iaia?aaeaa/oaaiino? na?aaeiaeua, noaoenoe/iee eiao?oe??io ?eceeo,
i?e?ina?aaeiaeua, iae?ina?aaeiaeua, ?aae?ciaai? aeo?aoe.

Aiiioaoeey

Aei?ioaiei I.I. Oi?aaeaiea eiaanoeoeeiiiui i?iaeoii n o/aoii ?enea. —
?oeiienue.

Aeenna?oaoeey ia nieneaiea o/aiie noaiaie eaiaeeaeaoa oaoie/aneeo iaoe
ii niaoeeaeueiinoe 08.06.01 — yeiiiieea i?aaei?eyoee e i?aaiecaoeey
i?iecaiaenoaa (oaoie/aneea iaoee). — Eeaaneee iaoeeiiaeueiue oieaa?neoao
no?ieoaeuenoaa e a?oeoaeoo?u, Eeaa, 1999.

Aeenna?oaoeey iinayuaia i?iaeaia ii?aaeaeaiey aa?iyoiinoae e
eiyooeoeeaioia ?enea i?aauoaiey cao?ao eiaanoi?a, a oiaea ?aaeecaoeee
eiaanoeoeeiiiuo i?iaeoia eaieoaeueiiai no?ieoaeuenoaa a. Eeaaa, iaae
caieaie?iaaiiuie cao?aoaie.

A ea/anoaa i?ino?ainoaaiii-a?aiaiiie iiaeaee i?iaeoa eniieueciaai a?aoee
aeaeaeaiey eaieoaea; aaea a?aoee ieaie?oaiuo eaieoaeiaeiaeaiee aunooiaao
a ea/anoaa iiieiaea, aie?oa eioi?iai oi?ie?oaony naiaenoai a?aoeeia
?aaeecoaiuo aeiaeaiee ii i?iaeoo. Ii?aaeaeaiea ioeeiiaiey i?e
niaiaaeaiee oi/ae (a?aoeeia) ieaie?oaiuo e ?aaeecoaiuo eaieoaeiaeiaeaiee
ioeaieaaaony /a?ac eiyooeoeeaio ?enea, au/eneaiea eioi?iai oi?iaeeciaaii
aeey /aou?ao o?iaiae aeaeiiiiceoeee i?iaeoa (yeaiaioa?iie ?aaiou, yoaia,
na/aiey, anaai i?iaeoa). Ia eo iniiaa no?ieony noaia au/eneaiee
?aaeecoaiuo cao?ao n o/aoii eiyooeoeeaioa ?enea aeey anao o?iaiae.
?ac?aaioai i?aeoe/aneee iiaeoiae e oi?aaeaieth i?iaeoii n o/aoii ?enea
ia aaca: ii?aaeaeaiey eiyooeoeeaioa ?enea eiaanoeoeeiiiiai i?iaeoa ec
?an/aoa iieiaeeoaeueiie i?eauee; eiiiainaoeee cai?aaeaeueiiai ?enea
ioaeaeueiuo o/anoeia i?iaeoa; i?eiaiaiea iiiyoey ?eneiniaea?aeaiey ?aaio
aeey au/eneaiey cao?ao eiaanoi?a a neo/aa aeiee?othueo auiieiaiea
i?iaeoa e oi?n-iaaei?iuo niauoee. Aeey ioeaiee ?enea i?iaeoa i?eiaiaiu
oanoue e?eoa?eaa. A ea/anoaa ooieoeee iioeiecaoeee iiaeao auoue
eniieueciaaia oi?ioea iaeneiecaoeee iaeeaeaaiie i?eauee eee oi?ioea
ieieiecaoeee ?aaeecoaiuo cao?ao eiaanoi?a ii i?iaeoo.

Eiyooeoeeaio ?enea ?ann/eouaaaony n iiiiuueth aeaoo iacaaeneiuo
iaoiaeee. Ia?aay eniieuecoao iaoiaeu yenia?oiuo ioeaiie aeey
ii?aaeaeaiey eiyooeoeeaioa ?enea, aicieeathuaai aneaaenoaea
iai?aaeneacoaiinoe n?aaeu eiaanoeoeeiiiiai i?iaeoa. Aoi?ay iaoiaeeea
?aaioaao ia aaca aiaeeca noaoenoeee Aeaaiiai a?oeoaeoo?ii-ieaie?iai/iiai
oi?aaeaiey, eanathuaeny auiieiaiey i?iaeoia no?ieoaeuenoaa a a. Eeaaa ca
ia?eiae n 1994 ii 1998 a.a., aeey ii?aaeaeaiey noaoenoe/aneiai
eiyooeoeeaioa ?enea.

A niioaaonoaee n ia?aie iaoiaeeeie, i?aaeeiaeaii n?aaeo i?ioaeaiey
eiaanoeoeeiiiiai i?iaeoa aeaeiiiice?iaaoue ia iee?in?aaeo e iae?in?aaeo.
A a?aieoeao eaaeaeie i?iecaaaeaii a?oiie?iaaiea 5 eeannia
acaeiinaycaiiuo ?eneiaucuaathueo oaeoi?ia. Aeey iae?in?aaeu, aioo?e
eaaeaeiai eeanna, ninoaaeaia ea?a?oey aoiaeyueo a iaai iiiyoee.
I?eaaaeaiu i?eia?u aeoeaiuo e ianneaiuo ia? ii iaeo?aeecaoeee
iaaaoeaiiai aeeyiey n?aaeu ia eiaanoeoeeiiiue i?ioeann.

A ea/anoaa iniiaiiai enoi/ieea ?enea i?iaeoa i?eiyoi naienoai
aeeiaie/iinoe (iai?aaeneacoaiinoe) n?aaeu. Ia iniiaaiee aai
i?aaeeaaaaony ?ann/eouaaoue eioaa?e?iaaiiua iieacaoaee e eiyooeoeeaiou
?enea aeeiaie/iinoe, niioaaonoaaiii, ii ?aaioai aeey iee?in?aaeu e ii
yoaiai aeey iae?in?aaeu. Ii?aaeaeaiea eioaa?e?iaaiiiai iieacaoaey
i?iecaiaeeony n i?eiaiaieai iaoiaea iaiin?aaenoaaiiiai ioeaieaaiey, ia
iniiaa eiaeeaeaeoaeueiiai ii?ina, a aeaea aieaoe?iaaiey, i?aeoeeothueo
eiaanoi?ia; n iineaaeothuei ?aiaee?iaaieai oaeoi?ia ii aic?anoathuei
aanai, eioi?ia inouanoaeyao i?iaiiceno iinea iieo/aiey aeaiiuo ii?ina.
Aeey auyniaiey aii?ina niaeaniaaiiinoe iiaiee yenia?oia a i?aaeaeao
eaaeaeiai oaeoi?a e ii eaaeaeiio yoaio ioeaiaiu noaoenoe/aneea e
ya?enoe/aneea iieacaoaee. Ii anai ei iieo/aiu i?eaieaiua ?acoeueoaou.

Yenia?oiiio ioeaieaaieth iiaeaa?aeenue aeaa iniiaiua oacu
eiaanoeoeeiiiiai i?iaeoa (i?iaeoe?iaaiea e no?ieoaeuenoai). A ea/anoaa
iiaeaee i?iaeoa aunooiaao naoaaie a?aoee, ninoaaeaiiue ec 10 yoaiia e
ieiei 170 ?aaio. Yoaiu i?iaeoa aaeaioe?iaaiu e oneiaeyi a. Eeaaa, a
niioaaonoaee n ii?iaoeaii-i?aaiauie aeieoiaioaie, ?aaeaiaioe?othueie
oiae i?iaeoe?iaaiey e no?ieoaeuenoaa a noieeoea.

A ?aaioa i?aaeeiaeai iia?aoeeiiiue niinia au/eneaiey ?eneiniaea?aeaiey
?aaio i?iaeoa ia aaca eo i?aaiecaoeeiiii-oaoiieiae/aneeo naycae.
?eneiniaea?aeaiea — yoi oa?aeoa?enoeea, au?aaeathuay ?ene eaaeaeie
?aaiou i?iaeoa /a?ac i?enouea ae ?ano?nu, iiaouea auoue oo?a/aiiuie
/anoe/ii eee iieiinoueth a ?acoeueoaoa iaei??aeoiiai auiieiaiey ?aaiou,
o?aaothuaai iiaoi?iiai aa inouanoaeaiey.

A niioaaonoaee ni aoi?ie iaoiaeeeie, aa?iyoiinoe eiyooeoeeaioa ?enea e,
niioaaonoaaiii, aa?iyoiinoe i?aauoaiey eiaanoi?ii caieaie?iaaiiuo cao?ao
ii i?iaeoo ii?aaeaeythony ia aaca noaoenoeee. Aeey iienea aa?iyoiinoae a
aeenna?oaoeee i?aaeeiaeai i?eioeei a?oiie?iaaiey yoaiia i?iaeoa a iieiua
a?oiiu niauoee iae?i- iaoa- e iee?io?iaiae, n iineaaeothuei i?eiaiaieai
e iei oai?ai oai?ee aa?iyoiinoae. Yoi iicaieyao ii?aaeaeeoue aa?iyoiinoe
i?aauoaiey cao?ao ii yoaiai, na/aieyi e anaio i?iaeoo; oaeaea
?ann/eoaoue iaeaieaa aiciiaeiua cao?aou e eo aa?iyoiinoe ii iaeneiaeueii
?eneiaui yoaiai i?iaeoa e iaoaiaoe/aneia iaeeaeaiea oaeiauo ni/aoaiee.

Ia iniiaaiee iaieo iaoiaeee ?ac?aaioaiu aeai?eoiu e i?ia?aiia (aeey
IYAI) ?an/aoa ?aaeecoaiuo cao?ao eiaanoi?a n o/aoii ?enea.

Iniiaiua ?acoeueoaou ?aaiou iaoee i?eiaiaiea a ath?i eiaanoeoeeiiiuo
i?iaeoia ainoaea?noaaiiiai i?aaei?eyoey IIO “Oeaio?aeueiue i?iaeoiue
einoeooo”, a NIO?4 IAI “o?ano EEAANIAOeNO?IE” e a o/aaiii i?ioeanna.

Eeth/aaua neiaa: i?eioeei a?oiie?iaaiey, iieiua a?oiiu niauoee,
eiyooeoeeaio ?enea iai?aaeneacoaiinoe n?aaeu, noaoenoe/aneee
eiyooeoeeaio ?enea, iee?in?aaea, iae?in?aaea, ?aaeecoaiua cao?aou

Annotation

Doroshenko M. N. Management of the Investment Project Considering Risk.
— Manuscript.

Thesis for obtaining the scientific degree of Candidate of Technical
Sciences by speciality 08.06.01 — Economics of Enterprise and
Organization of Production (technical sciences). — Kyiv National
University of Civil Engineering and Architecture. Kyiv, 1999.

The thesis concerns the problem of determining the probabilities and
factors of risk relative to the increase of the costs of an investor in
the course of realization of investment projects in Kyiv capital
construction over targeted costs.

For searching the probabilities the thesis proposes the principle of
grouping up the stages of the project into full groups of events. The
factor of the risk is calculated by means of two independent methods:
calculation of factor of risk non-predictability of the medium and
statistical factor of risk. Investment medium has been divided on
micro-medium and macro-medium. There has been developed an algorithm and
program for calculation the costs, to be realized by the investor,
considering risk.

The basic findings of the work have been implemented at the Bureau of
Investment Projects to the State Enterprise of MDU “CDI”, at SMU ?4 OJSC
“KIYEVSPETSSTROY” trust and training process.

Key words: the principle of grouping, full groups of events, factor of
risk non-predictability of the medium, statistical factor of risk,
micro-medium, macro-medium, costs to be realized.

PAGE 16

Похожие записи