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Системний аналіз проблем екологічної безпеки України: Автореф. дис… канд. техн. наук / Г.А. Хміль, Нац. техн. ун-т України ‘Київ. політехн. ін-т’. —

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IAOe?IIAEUeIEE OAOI?*IEE OI?AA?NEOAO OE?A?IE

“EE?ANUeEEE IIE?OAOI?*IEE ?INOEOOO”

OAeE 519.7 + 681.51

O I ? E Ue A A I I A A I O I I ? A I A

Nenoaiiee aiae?c i?iaeai

aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie

01.05.04 – nenoaiiee aiae?c ? oai??y iioeiaeueieo ??oaiue

Aaoi?aoa?ao

aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy

eaiaeeaeaoa oaoi?/ieo iaoe

Ee?a – 1999

Aeena?oaoe??th ? ?oeiien.

?iaioa aeeiiaia a Iaoe?iiaeueiiio ?inoeooo? no?aoaa?/ieo aeine?aeaeaiue
?aaee iaoe?iiaeueii? aaciaee ? iai?iie Oe?a?ie.

Iaoeiaee ea??aiee:aeieoi? oaoi?/ieo iaoe,

Ea/einueeee Aiaoie?e A?ii?neaaiae/,

Iaoe?iiaeueiee ?inoeooo no?aoaa?/ieo aeine?aeaeaiue, caa?aeoaa/
a?aeae?eo i?iaeai aaciaee aeeoo?ae?yeueiino? ethaeeie, noni?euenoaa oa
aeiae?eey.

Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe:aeieoi? o?ceei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoe,

Iaea?aiei Ieaenaiae? Na?a?eiae/,

Iaa/aeueii-iaoeiaee eiiieaen “?inoeooo i?eeeaaeiiai nenoaiiiai aiae?co”,
i?ioani? eaoaae?e iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoiae?a nenoaiiiai aiae?co;

aeieoi? oaoi?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?

A?iueei ?ai? Oaaei?iae/

Aaei?i?no?aoe?y I?aceaeaioa Oe?a?ie,

caa?aeoaa/ a?aeae?eo iii?oi?eiao oa aiae?co noni?eueii-iie?oe/ieo
i?ioean?a.I?ia?aeia onoaiiaa:Ee?anueeee oi?aa?neoao ?iai? Oa?ana
Oaa/aiea, eaoaae?a nenoaiiiai aiae?co oa oai??? i?eeiyooy iioeiaeueieo
??oaiue

Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny “11 ” aeiaoiy_1999 ?. i _15 aiaeei? ia can?aeaii?
niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Ae 26.002.03 i?e Iaoe?iiaeueiiio
oaoi?/iiio oi?aa?neoao? Oe?a?ie “Ee?anueeee iie?oaoi?/iee ?inoeooo” ca
aae?anith: 252056, i. Ee?a-56, i?. Ia?aiiae, 37, ei?i.14.

C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoeny o a?ae?ioaoe? IOOO “EI?”

Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaiee “_10” aa?aniy 1999 ?.

A/aiee nae?aoa? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? aeieoi?
oaoi?/ieo iaoe

a/aii? ?aaee Ae 26.002.03
?.?.Eiaaeaiei

CAAAEUeIA OA?AEOA?ENOEEA ?IAIOE

Aeooaeuei?noue oaie. Aeieia?/ia aaciaea aea?aeaae – neeaaeia
nioe?aeueii-aeiiii?/ia i?iaeaia, ui aecia/a?oueny i?e?iaeieie,
aeiii-i?/ieie, oaoiieia?/ieie, i?aaiaeie ? nioe?aeueieie /eiieeaie.
I?aeaeenoeeie?ia?iee oa?aeoa? oa aaaaoianiaeoi?noue oe??? i?iaeaie
ae-iaaa? canoinoaaiiy nenoaiiiai i?aeoiaeo aei aea/aiiy i?iaeai
aeiei-a?/ii? aaciaee, ?ic?iaee oa aeei?enoaiiy iaoiae?a oi?aae?iiy iath.

Aeieia?/ia aaciaea cia/iith i??ith caeaaeeoue a?ae nooiaiy caa?ic, /e
?ecee?a, ye? aeieeathoue o ?acoeueoao? i?iya?a noeo?eieo nee,
oaoiiaaiieo aaa??e, iaaieo ae?e ethaeae o ii?iaeueieo /e aeno?aiaeueieo
oiiaao. Ca iani?eyoeeaeo ianoaaei oe? caa?ice iiaeooue ?aae?coaaoeny oa
ni?e/eieoe ?oei?ai? iane?aeee aeey ?icaeoeo eiie?aoii? aea?aeaae,
noaiiaeoe cia/io caa?ico ?? iaoe?iiaeuei?e aaciaoe?.

Aeey Oe?a?ie ieoaiiy aeieia?/ii? aaciaee iaaoaathoue i??i?eoaoiiai
cia/aiiy, ine?eueee iaaei??ia eiioeaio?aoe?y aeieia?/ii iaaacia/ieo
ae?iaieoeoa, ciioaiiy ? noa??iiy iniiaieo ae?iaie/eo oiiae?a oa
iaaoaeoeaia i?e?iaeiioi?iiia iaeaaeiaiiy, caa?oaeiaiiy aoiinoa?e
aeeeaeaie oaa?aeeo ? aaciiiae?aieo ?a/iaei, neeaee caa?oaeiaieo no?/ieo
aiae aei aiaeiiinieo ai?eciio?a, neeaaeoaaiiy oaa?aeeo a?aeoiae?a
i?iieneiaino?, iaaoaeoeaia aeei?enoaiiy i?e?iaeii-?ano?niiai
iioaioe?aeo, ?ici?uaiiy aaeeei? e?eueeino? o?i?/ii iaaacia/ieo
ae?iaieoeoa, aeaooi- ? iiaeaaeiiaaacia/ieo ae?iaieoeoa, ?aae?aoe?eii
iaaacia/ieo ia’?eo?a, iayai?noue naeniiiaaacia/ieo cii oa cii iiaeeeaiai
i?aeoiieaiiy, iane?aeee aaa??? ia *i?iiaeeuenuee?e AAN, a?aoo?-?aoo aa?c
aei Oe?a?ie aeieia?/ii iaaacia/ieo oaoiieia?e, iaoa??ae?a, ?a/iaei – ana
oea noai?th? cia/ia iaaacia/ia iaaaioaaeaiiy ia i?e?iaeia na?aaeiaeua
Oe?a?ie ? iiaea noaoe i?e/eiith nioe?aeueiiai oa iie?oe/iiai
iai?oaeaiiy.

O ca’yceo c e?eciaei noaiii aeieia?? oa a?aenooi?noth e?euee?nieo
ioe?iie ??ai?a aeieia?/ii? aaciaee a ?aa?iiao Oe?a?ie ia?oi/a?aiaiai
cia/aiiy iaaoaa? iaiao?aei?noue nenoaiiiai aiae?co i?iaeai aeieia?/ii?
aaciaee, aeyaeaiiy iniiaieo caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie oa
e?euee?nia ioe?ithaaiiy ?o ??ai?a, iniaeeai ioe?iea ?ioaa?aeueieo
iieaciee?a noaio aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie a ?aa?iiaeueiiio ?ic??c?,
ine?eueee a?aenooi?noue iaoeiai-iaa?oioiaaieo e?euee?nieo ioe?iie
?ioaa?aeueieo iieaciee?a iaaaciaee a iaeanoyo Oe?a?ie i?ecaiaeeoue aei
ia?aa?eueoaiiy ??ai?a caa?ic a ie?aieo ?aa?iiao iaa?oue na?aae
niaoe?ae?no?a, ia eaaeo/e aaea i?i caniae ianiai? ?ioi?iaoe??, ni?e/eiy?
iai?aaeeueiee ?iciiae?e aneaioaaiue i?ae iaea?eueo o?aceeaeie ?aa?iiaie.

E??i oiai, o ca’yceo ?c c?inoaiiyi i?e?iaeiiai, oaoiiaaiiiai ?
nioe?aeueiiai ?ecee?a aeey aeeoo?ae?yeueiino? ianaeaiiy iac??ea iio?aaa
a iaoeiaiio ?o aiae?c? oa e?euee?niiio ioe?ithaaii?. Ia aeaiiio aoai? a
Oe?a?i? a?aenooi? e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo, yeee a?aeia?aaea?
??aaiue aieeao ciai?oi?o oe?aeeeaeo oaeoi??a ia aaciaeo ethaeae ?
?icaeyaea?oueny ye iaeei c aaaeeeaeo e?eoa???a aaciaee ethaeeie,
noni?euenoaa oa aeiae?eey.

Ieoaiiy i?eeiyooy iioeiaeueieo ??oaiue i?aaiaie aea?aeaaii? aeaaee noaee
ca?ac ceiaiaeaiieie, iniaeeai a oae?e iaeano?, ye aeieia?/ia aaciaea.
Oi?ioaaiiy aeaaaeaii? iie?oeee aeieia?/ii? aaciaee oa iaoai?ci?a ??
?aae?caoe?? iaiiaeeeaa aac iaoeiaiai aiae?co oa e?euee?nii? ioe?iee
i??i?eoao?a iaoai?ci?a iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe?,
oi?ioaaiiy iiiaeeie aeueoa?iaoea, ia ye?e cae?enith?oueny aea?? iaoiae?a
ae?yeueiino?.

Ia ae??oaiiy oeeo aeooaeueieo iaoeiaeo i?iaeai ni?yiiaaia aeena?oaoe?eia
?iaioa.

Ca’ycie ?iaioe c iaoeiaeie i?ia?aiaie, ieaiaie, oaiaie. ?iaioa ii oai?
aeena?oaoe?? aeeiioaaeany a Iaoe?iiaeueiiio ?inoeooo? no?aoaa?/ieo
aeine?aeaeaiue ca?aeii c ieaiaie iaoeiaeo aeine?aeaeaiue, caoaa?aeaeaieo
?aaeith iaoe?iiaeueii? aaciaee ? iai?iie Oe?a?ie, a oaeiae o
a?aeiia?aeiino? c ainiiaea?nueeeie aeiaiai?aie ? 10/2-96 ?c
I?i/i?iiaeeai Oe?a?ie “Aecia/aiiy caa?ic iaoe?iiaeuei?e aaciaoe?
Oe?a?ie, iia’ycaieo c iane?aeeaie aaa??? ia *AAN, ?ic?iaea iiaeaeae
i?iaiico ?o ?icaeoeo c o?aooaaiiyi nioe?aeueii-aeiiii?/ieo,
aeaiia?ao?/ieo oa aeieia?/ieo aniaeo?a” oa ? 26/2i-97 ?c I?i?noa?noaii
Oe?a?ie c ieoaiue iaaecae/aeieo neooaoe?e oa o ni?aaao caoenoo ianaeaiiy
a?ae iane?aee?a *i?iiaeeuenueei? eaoano?ioe “Nenoaiiee aiae?c oa
?ic?iaea e?eoa???a, ???a?o?/ii? no?oeoo?e oa aa?aaeueii? iiaeae?
“i?eeiyoiiai” ?eceeo uiaei i?i?i?caoe?? iane?aee?a eaoano?ioe ia *AAN”.

Iaoa ? caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy. Iniiaiith iaoith aeine?aeaeaiiy ?:

– i?iaaaeaiiy nenoaiiiai aiae?co i?iaeai aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie ?
iaea?aeaiiy ia oe?e iniia? e?euee?nieo ioe?iie ??ai?a caa?ic,
?ioaa?aeueieo iieaciee?a noaio aeieia?/ii? aaciaee a ?aa?iiaeueiiio
?ic??c? oa e?euee?nieo ioe?iie i??i?eoao?a aea?aeaaii? iie?oeee uiaei
iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie;

– aecia/aiiy e?euee?nieo ioe?iie oiiiaiai ?eceeo ye i??e aieeao
ciai?oi?o oe?aeeeaeo oaeoi??a ia aaciaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie.

Aeey aeinyaiaiiy oe??? iaoe iathoue aooe ?ica’ycai? ianooii? caaea/?:

1. ?ic?iaeoe iaoiaeeeo iiaeaethaaiiy iniiaieo caa?ic aeieia?/i?e
aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie, iiaoaeoaaoe ?o iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? oa e?euee?nii
ioe?ieoe ??ai? oeeo caa?ic;

2. ?ic?iaeoe iaoiaeeeo ? ?ic?aooaaoe ?ioaa?aeuei? iieacieee noaio
aeieia?/ii? iaaaciaee ?aa?ii?a Oe?a?ie oa i?iaanoe ?o ii??aiyeueiee
aiae?c;

3. Iiaoaeoaaoe iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? iieaciee?a aaciaee ethaeeie ?
aeiae?eey caeaaeii a?ae ianooaa?a ?aae?caoe?? ie?aieo caa?ic /e ?oi?o
eiia?iaoe?e;

4. ?ic?iaeoe aeai?eoi oa i?ia?aio aecia/aiiy ia?aiao??a iiaeeo?eiaaii?
iiaeae? Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia ? io?eiaoe c ?o aeiiiiiaith e?euee?ni? ioe?iee
oiiiaiai ?eceeo nia?oiino? ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie;

5. Io?eiaoe e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo, iaoiiaeaiiai aieeaii
ie?aieo iani?eyoeeaeo /eiiee?a ia aaciaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie, ca
aeiiiiiaith oai?aoeei-eiia??i?nii? iiaeae? ?eceeo;

6. ?ic?iaeoe ???a?o?/io iiaeaeue nenoaie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie ?
aecia/eoe a?aeiini? aaee/eie ?ioaineaiino? aca?iiae?? aeaiaio?a o aeai?e
???a?o??.

Iaoeiaa iiaecia iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a. O aeena?oaoe?? aia?oa:

· ?ic?iaeaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? iniiaieo caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe?
Oe?a?ie, iiaoaeiaaii i??i?eoaoiee ?yae iniiaieo caa?ic ca nooiaiai
?oiuei? iaaaciaee, i?iaaaeaii eiiieaeniee ii??aiyeueiee aiae?c noaio
aeieia?/ii? aaciaee ?aa?ii?a Oe?a?ie ca aeiiiiiaith ?ioaa?aeueieo
iieaciee?a;

· ?ic?iaeaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? iieaciee?a aaciaee ethaeeie ? aeiae?eey
caeaaeii a?ae ianooaa?a ?aae?caoe?? ie?aieo caa?ic /e ?oi?o eiia?iaoe?e;

· ia iniia? iiaeeo?eiaaii? iiaeae? Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia aecia/aii ia?aiao?e
iaoaiaoe/ieo iiaeaeae ?ecee?a nia?oiino? aeey anueiai ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie
oa /ieia?/iai ? ae?ii/iai cie?aia, ye? aeaee ciiao ?ic?aooaaoe
e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo oa aeine?aeeoe eiai aeeiai?eo ia
i?ioyc? 1980-1996 ??.;

· aecia/aii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee ?eceeo aieeao ie?aieo iani?eyoeeaeo
/eiiee?a ia aaciaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie ca aeiiiiiaith
oai?aoeei-eiia??i?nii? iiaeae? ?eceeo;

· iiaoaeiaaii ???a?o?/io iiaeaeue nenoaie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie,
aecia/aii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee i??i?eoao?a aea?aeaaii? iie?oeee uiaei
iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie.

I?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a. Iaea?aeai? a aeena?oaoe??
e?euee?ni? ioe?iee ??ai?a iniiaieo caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie
iineoaeeee ia’?eoeaiith iaoeiaith iniiaith aeey i?aeaioiaee i?iiiceoe?e
uiaei ciaioaiiy iaaaciaee oeeo caa?ic aeey I?i?noa?noaa Oe?a?ie c
ieoaiue iaaecae/aeieo neooaoe?e, I?i?noa?noaa ioi?iie caei?ia’y oa
I?iaeiaaciaee Oe?a?ie. Eiiieaeniee ii??aiyeueiee aiae?c noaio aaciaee
?aa?ii?a Oe?a?ie ca aeiiiiiaith ?ioaa?aeueieo iieaciee?a aeyaea
iaea?eueo o?aceea? a aeieia?/iiio ieai? ?aa?iie Oe?a?ie. Io?eiai?
?acoeueoaoe ? iaoeiai-iaa?oioiaaiith aacith aeey aeei?enoaiiy o?yaeii,
i?aaiaie aea?aeaaiiai oi?aae?iiy c iaoith ae?iaeaiiy iioeiaeueii?
no?aoaa?? uiaei i?aeaeuaiiy aaciaee ianaeaiiy a ie?aieo ?aa?iiao oa
caaacia/aiiy caeaoiino? ainiiaea?nueeiai eiiieaeno aea?aeaae
?iciiae?eeoe aneaioaaiiy oaeei /eiii, uia eieae?coaaoe ? iaeo?ae?coaaoe
aeieeath/? caa?ice.

Io?eiai? e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo neoaeaoue aeey iaoeiaiai
iaa?oiooaaiiy aaee/eie i?eeiyoiiai ?eceeo aea?aeaae, ie?aieo ??
?aa?ii?a. Anoaiiaeaiiy aeiionoeieo iaae i?eeiyoiiai ?eceeo caeaaeeoue
a?ae ??aiy oiiiaiai ?eceeo: iaia? naino anoaiiaethaaoe aei?noe? iaae?
i?eeiyoiiai ?eceeo ia oe? aaeeeeo cia/aiue aaea ?nioth/iai oiiiaiai
?eceeo. Iiaoaeiaaia aaoi?ii ???a?o?/ia iiaeaeue nenoaie aeieia?/ii?
aaciaee oa io?eiai? e?euee?ni? ioe?iee i??i?eoao?a aeaiaio?a nenoaie
aeieia?/ii? aaciaee ni?eyoeiooue aeuei i?aaiai aea?aeaaiiai oi?aae?iiy o
oi?ioaaii? aeaaaeaii? iie?oeee aeieia?/ii? aaciaee oa iaoai?ci?a ??
?aae?caoe?? ia i?aenoaa? iaoeiai-iaa?oioiaaieo aeaieo.

Iniiai? iaoeia? ?acoeueoaoe aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe aoee aeei?enoai? i?e
i?aeaioiaoe? i?aeoe/ieo ?aeiiaiaeaoe?e I?aceaeaioia? Oe?a?ie,
Aaei?i?no?aoe?? I?aceaeaioa, ?aae? iaoe?iiaeueii? aaciaee oa iai?iie
Oe?a?ie ? ai?iaaaeaeai? a I?i?noa?noa? ioi?iie iaaeieeoiueiai
na?aaeiaeua oa yaea?ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie, a oaeiae a I?i?noa?noa? Oe?a?ie
c ieoaiue iaaecae/aeieo neooaoe?e oa o ni?aaao caoenoo ianaeaiiy a?ae
*i?iiaeeuenueei? eaoano?ioe.

Iniaenoee aianie caeiaoaa/a. On? ?acoeueoaoe aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe
io?eiaii ca iniaenoith o/anoth aaoi?a. Aeena?oaioii iniaenoi:
cai?iiiiiaaia iaoiaeeea iaoaiaoe/iiai iiaeaethaaiiy iniiaieo caa?ic
aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe?, ?ic?iaeaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? oeeo caa?ic oa
iaea?aeaii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee ?o ??ai?a, ?ic?iaeaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae?
iieaciee?a aaciaee ethaeeie ? aeiae?eey ye ooieoe?? aieiaieo caa?ic,
?ic?iaeaii aeai?eoi oa eiii’thoa?io i?ia?aio aeey aecia/aiiy e?euee?nieo
ioe?iie oiiiaiai ?eceeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie ia aac? iiaeeo?eiaaii? iiaeae?
Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia, iiaoaeiaaii ???a?o?/io iiaeaeue nenoaie aeieia?/ii?
aaciaee Oe?a?ie ? aecia/aii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee i??i?eoao?a aea?aeaaii?
iie?oeee uiaei iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? ca aeiiiiiaith
iaoiaeo aiae?co ???a?o?e.

Ai?iaaoe?y ?acoeueoao?a ?iaioe. Iaoa??aee aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe
aeiiia?aeaeenue ia a/aieo ?aaeao Iaoe?iiaeueiiai ?inoeoooo no?aoaa?/ieo
aeine?aeaeaiue, ia iaoeiaeo nai?ia?ao oaeoeueoaoo e?aa?iaoeee
Ee?anueeiai oi?aa?neoaoo ?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea, a oaeiae ia
eiioa?aioe?yo:

Anaoe?a?inuee?e eiioa?aioe?? “Iiaeae? ? iaoiaee ioe?iee ?eceeo oa
i?iaeaie aaciaee aeieiai-aeiiii?/ieo nenoai” (Ee?a, 1992);
Anaoe?a?inuee?e eiioa?aioe?? “Aeooaeuei? i?iaeaie aeiaaieia?? Oe?a?ie”
(Ee?a, 1997); E?oaeiio noie? “Aeiiii?/ia aaciaea Oe?a?ie: i?iaeaie ?
nooi?noue” (Ee?a, 1997); E?oaeiio noie? “Oe?a?ia – oeyoe a iaeaooi?”
(Ee?a, 1998); I?aeia?iaei?e eioa?aioe?? “Third Scandinavian – Ucrainian
Conference on Probability and Statistics” (Ee?a, 1999 ?.).

Ioae?eaoe??. ?acoeueoaoe aeine?aeaeaiue aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe
iioae?eiaaii o 4 iaoeiaeo i?aoeyo [1-4], na?aae ieo 2 iiiia?ao??.

No?oeoo?a oa ianya aeena?oaoe??. Aeena?oaoe?y neeaaea?oueny ?c anooio, 4
?icae?e?a, aeniiae?a, nieneo aeei?enoaieo aeaea?ae ?c 90 iaeiaioaaiue,
/ioe?ueio aeiaeaoe?a, aeeeaaeaia ia 171 noi??ieao ae?oeiaaiiai oaenoo,
yeee ai?uo? 20 oaaeeoeue oa 24 ?ethno?aoe??.

INIIAIEE CI?NO ?IAIOE

O anooi? ?ice?eaa?oueny aeooaeuei?noue i?iaeaie, oi?ioeth?oueny iaoa
?iaioe, iniiai? caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy, iaoeiaa iiaecia ? i?aeoe/ia
oe?ii?noue iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a, iienaii ai?iaaoe?th ?acoeueoao?a
?iaioe.

A ia?oiio ?icae?e? ?icaeyiooi iniiai? iieiaeaiiy nenoaiiiai aiae?co,
iaa?oioiaaii iiaeeea?noue canoinoaaiiy nenoaiiiai i?aeoiaeo aeey
aea/aiiy i?iaeai aeieia?/ii? aaciaee, aeaii aiae?c ?nioth/eo iaoiae?a
nenoaiieo aeine?aeaeaiue aeey ae??oaiiy ie?aieo i?iaeai aeieia?/ii?
aaciaee, ?icaeyiooi aieiai? ?ene aeieia?/ii? aaciaee ye neeaaeiai?
iaoe?iiaeueii? aaciaee aea?aeaae, nenoaii? iniiae aeieia?/ii? aaciaee.

?icaeyioo? iniiai? aniaeoe ?eceeo, na?aae ieo nioe?aeueiee, aeiiii?/iee,
iaaee/iee oa aeieia?/iee, aeaii iaoiaeieia?/ia iaa?oiooaaiiy oiai, ui
?ecee ? e?euee?niith i??ith aaciaee, noenei i?iaiae?ciaaii ie?ai? aeaee
?ecee?a oa iniiai? ?eceee caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie, iaaaaeaii
iinoaiiaeo caaea/ aeine?aeaeaiiy.

?icae?e 2 i?enay/aiee iaoaiaoe/iiio iiaeaethaaiith caa?ic aeieia?/i?e
aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie ia iniia? iaoaiaoe/iiai aia?aoo iaoiae?a
aaaaoiaei??iiai noaoenoe/iiai aiae?co, cie?aia iaoiaeo aieiaieo
eiiiiiaio oa eeanoa?iiai aiae?co. C oe??th iaoith aaoi?ii noi?iiaaii
aaco aeaieo, ui oa?aeoa?eco? aeieia?/io aaciaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie. Aiia
oiiaii ioiieth? 9 noa? aeieia?/ii? aaciaee, a naia: ianooaae ?icaeoeo
oaoiinoa?e, iane/ai?noue i?iieneiaino? Oe?a?ie oaoiiaaiii iaaacia/ieie
i?aei?e?inoaaie, caa?oaeiaiiy iaaeieeoiueiai na?aaeiaeua, o?i?/ii
iaaacia/i? ae?iaieoeoaa, aeaooi- ? iiaeaaeiiaaacia/i? ae?iaieoeoaa,
iayai?noue naeniiiaaacia/ieo cii, e?nia? oa iieueia? iiaeaae?, iane?aeee
aaa??? ia *AAN, i?e?iaeii-?ano?niee iioaioe?ae.

O ca’yceo c oei, ui e?euee?noue noaoenoe/ieo iieaciee?a, ye?
oa?aeoa?ecothoue aeieia?/io aaciaeo aea?aeaae, aaeeea, i?e/iio /anoi
i?ae niaith aiie cia/ii ei?aeththoue, oi iinoa? caaea/a aeae?eaiiy c
aea?aii? iiiaeeie iieaciee?a iaea?eueo nooo?aeo oaeoi??a, ui
oa?aeoa?ecothoue aeine?aeaeoaaia yaeua. C iaoith ae??oaiiy oe??? caaea/?
aoei cai?iiiiiaaii i?aeo?ae aei canoinoaaiiy iaoaiaoe/iiai aia?aoo
iaoiaeo aieiaieo eiiiiiaio, yeee aaco?oueny ia i?eiouaii? i?i ?nioaaiiy
iaaaeeei? e?eueeino? aeiiii?aeieo iieaciee?a (eiiiiiaio), ye? ia
aoiaeyoue a /enei aei??yieo, aea nai?i aieeaii ia aei??yi? iieacieee
aecia/athoue ei?aeyoe?th inoaii?o.

Nooue iaoiaeo aieiaieo eiiiiiaio iieyaa? a ianooiiiio: iaoae ia?ii m
aeiaaeeiaeo ci?iieo o(1), … , o(m) c aaaaoiaei??iei, ia iaia’yceiai
ii?iaeueiei, noi?niei ?iciiae?eii, aaeoi?ii na?aaei?o ? eiaa??aoe?eiith
iao?eoeath ij Aca?iica’ycie i?ae ci?iieie o(1), … , o(m) iiaea aooe
aei??aiee eiaa??aoe?yie aai, ui aea?aaeaioii, aeenia?n?yie ?
ei?aeyoe?yie i?ae o(1), … , o(m). Iiaeia ciaeoe e?i?ei? eiia?iaoe??
o(1), … , o(q) ci?iieo o(1), … , o(m), (q

? ????????????? ???????????yyy????.????1?????????????A? ???&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyyA??j?????&? [email protected][email protected]??????= 1, i = 1, 2, ..., m; cov (y(i) o(j)) = 0, i, j = 1, ..., m, i j, ? aeenia?n?y V(o(1)) V(o(2)) ... V(o(m)), (2) aea o(j) - iieacieee, j = 1, ... , m; o(i) - aieiai? eiiiiiaioe, i = 1, ... , m; V(o(1)), ... , V(o (m)) - aeenia?n?? eiiiiiaio. Aeey ia/eneaiiy k-oi? aieiaii? eiiiiiaioe o(k) (k = 1, 2, ..., m) ie ciaoiaeeee aeaniee aaeoi? lk = (lk1, lk2, ..., lkm) eiaa??aoe?eii? iao?eoe? aeo?aeiiai iaai?o iieaciee?a X = (x(1), ..., x(m)), oiaoi ?ica’ycoaaee nenoaio ??aiyiue ( - kI) lk= 0, aea k - k-oee ca aaee/eiith ei??iue (i?e ?ici?uaii? ?o o niaaeiiio ii?yaeeo) oa?aeoa?enoe/iiai ??aiyiiy | - I| = 0. Eiiiiiaioe lkj (j = 1,..., m) aeaniiai aaeoi?a yaeythoueny ooeaieie aaaiaeie eiao?oe??ioaie, c aeiiiiiaith yeeo cae?enithaaany ia?ao?ae a?ae aeo?aeieo iieaciee?a x(1), ..., x(m) aei aieiaii? eiiiiiaioe o(k). ?acoeueoaoe ?ic?aooie?a iieacaee, ui ia?o? i’youe aieiaieo eiiiiiaio iiyniththoue 81,2 % caaaeueii? aeenia?n?? an?o iieaciee?a, i?e/iio ia ia?oo aieiaio eiiiiiaioo i?eiaaea? 41,1 % caaaeueiiai aianeo eiiiiiaio aei no?oeoo?e aeine?aeaeoaaiiai yaeua. Ae?oaa eiiiiiaioa iiynith? 13,5% caaaeueii? aeenia?n??, o?aoy - 11,3 %, /aoaa?oa - 9,6 %, i'yoa eiiiiiaioa - 5,8%. Ine?eueee ia i?aeoeoe? ?aeiiaiaeo?oueny aeae?eyoe e?euee?noue aieiaieo eiiiiiaio, ui iiynith? 75 % ?oiuei? noia?ii? aeenia?n??, aaoi? aiae?coaaa /ioe?e aieiai? eiiiiiaioe, ui ?ioa?i?aoothoueny iei ye iniiai? caa?ice aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie. Ia?oa iniiaia caa?ica aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie - oea: caa?oaeiaiiy iaaeieeoiueiai na?aaeiaeua, ?ici?uaiiy o?i?/ii iaaacia/ieo ae?iaieoeoa ia oa?eoi??? Oe?a?ie, ui coiiaeai? iane/ai?noth i?iieneiaino? oaoiiaaiii iaaacia/ieie i?aei?e?inoaaie, a oaeiae iaaoaeoeaia aeei?enoaiiy i?e?iaeii-?ano?niiai iioaioe?aeo. Ae?oaa aieiaia eiiiiiaioa ?ioa?i?aoo?oueny ye iane?aeee aaa??? ia *AAN oa e?nia? iiaeaae?. Oea ae?oaa ca nai?th cia/ei?noth iniiaia caa?ica aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie. O?aoth aieiaio eiiiiiaioo ie ?ioa?i?aoo?ii ye iaaecae/aei? neooaoe?? i?e?iaeiiai iioiaeaeaiiy ? aeaooi- oa iiaeaaeiiaaacia/i? ae?iaieoeoaa. Oea o?aoy iniiaia caa?ica aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie. *aoaa?oith aieiaiith caa?icith aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie ? iioaioe?ei? aaa??? ia ?aae?aoe?eii iaaacia/ieo ia'?eoao oa iieueia? iiaeaae?. Io?eiai? cia/aiiy aieiaieo eiiiiiaio aeicaieeee iiaoaeoaaoe i??i?eoaoiee ?yae iniiaieo caa?ic ca nooiaiai ?oiuei? iaaaciaee, 1-a i?noea na?aae ?icaeyiooeo caa?ic iin?aea? caa?oaeiaiiy iaaeieeoiueiai na?aaeiaeua. Aeae? ?icoaoiaai?: iaaoaeoeaia aeei?enoaiiy i?e?iaeii-?ano?niiai iioaioe?aeo (2-a i?noea), ?ici?uaiiy o?i?/ii iaaacia/ieo ae?iaieoeoa) (3), e?nia? iiaeaae? o iiaeaaeiiaaacia/iee nacii (4), iane?aeee aaa??? ia *AAN (5), caieao?one (6), aeaooi- oa iiaeaaeiiaaacia/i? ae?iaieoeoaa (7), iieueia? iiaeaae? (8), iioaioe?ei? aaa??? ia ?aae?aoe?eii iaaacia/ieo ia'?eoao (9). Aeey ?aaeaiaioaoe?? oa i?eeiyooy ??oaiue ia aoai? caiia?aaiiy iaaecae/aeiei neooaoe?yi a ie?aieo iaeanoyo Oe?a?ie iac??ea aino?a iaiao?aei?noue eiiieaeniiai aiae?co noaio aeieia?/ii? aaciaee iaeanoae Oe?a?ie ca aeiiiiiaith ?ioaa?aeueieo iieaciee?a aaciaee. ?ioaa?aeueiee iieaciee aeieia?/ii? iaaaciaee ?-ai ?aa?iio (I?) ?ic?aoiaoaaany ca oi?ioeith: wmetafile8? ?????????????? ???????????yyy????.????1?????????????AA ???&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyy???j?????&??MathType??aea v(j) - aaaiaee eiao?oe??io j-i? aieiaii? eiiiiiaioe, wmetafile8? ??©??????????? ???????????yyy????.????1?????? ???????a ???&??yyyy?????Ayyy«yyya ??‹?????&??MathType??? ???u?????????"????-?????–»???–A [email protected]?????? j - aeania cia/aiiy j-i? aieiaii? eiiiiiaioe; oij - cia/aiiy aieiaii? eiiiiiaioe j aeey ?aa?iio i. I?ney ia?ai?uaiiy ii/aoeo a?aee?eo ? ii?ioaaiiy, ia/eneai? cia/aiiy ?ioaa?aeueiiai iieacieea I aeei?enoiaothoueny aeey ii??aiyeueiiai aiae?co ??ai?a aeieia?/ii? iaaaciaee ?aa?ii?a Oe?a?ie. ?ic?aoiaaiee ?ioaa?aeueiee ?iaeaen ?ioa?i?aoo?oueny oae: aeaiee ?aa?ii ? oei a?eueoa aeieia?/ii iaaacia/iei, /ei a?eueoa cia/aiiy eiai ?ioaa?aeueiiai iieacieea (I). Ca?aeii ?ic?aooie?a, aeoaea aenieee ??aaiue aeieia?/ii? iaaaciaee iathoue Aeiiaoeueea (I = 0,827), Eoaainueea (I = 0,606), Aei?i?iiao?ianueea (I = 0,603) oa Ee?anueea (I = 0,414) iaeano?. ?aooa iaeanoae iathoue ?ioaa?aeuei? iieacieee aeieia?/ii? iaaaciaee aeecuee? aei na?aaeiueioe?a?inueeiai iieacieea (I=0,222). Eeaneo?eaoe?y ?aa?ii?a Oe?a?ie a iaeii??aei? a?oie cae?enithaaeany aeaiia iaoiaeaie: iaoiaeii ?ioa?aae?a ca cia/aiiyie ia/eneaieo ?ioaa?aeueieo iieaciee?a oa ca aeiiiiiaith aaeiia?aoeaii-???a?o?/iiai eeanoa?iiai aiae?co aieiaieo eiiiiiaio iaoiaeii na?aaeiueiai ca’yceo. A ?acoeueoao? iaio iaoiae?a ie iaea?aeaee o?e eeanoa?e. Ia?oee eeanoa? ooai?ththoue Aeiiaoeueea, Aei?i?iiao?ianueea ? Eoaainueea iaeano?. Ae?oaee eeanoa? - Ee?anueea iaeanoue, ?aooa ?aa?ii?a iio?aieee aei o?aoueiai eeanoa?a ? iathoue iaaenie? oa aeecuee? ca cia/aiiyie ??ai? caa?ic. Aaoi? io?eiaa iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? ia?oeo /ioe?ueio aieiaieo eiiiiiaio (iniiaieo caa?ic): o(1) = 0,196x(2) + 0,3x(3) + 0,307x(4) + 0,25x(5) + 0,31x(6) + 0,316x(7) + 0,31x(8) + + 0,25x(9) + 0,28x(10) + 0,25x(11) + 0,21x(13) + 0,145x(16) + 0,154x(20) + 0,304x(21); o(2) = -0,23x(1) - 0,21x(2) + 0,29x(12) + 0,27x(13) - 0,36x(14) - 0,11x(15) + 0,48x(16) - - 0,30x(17) + 0,43x(18) + 0,17x(19) - 0,199x(20); o(3) = 0,11x(1) + 0,22x(3) - 0,148x(4) + 0,23x(11) + 0,36x(12) + 0,2x(13) + 0,389x(14) + + 0,595x(15) - 0,332x(20); o(4) = 0,21x(1) - 0,427x(2) - 0,14x(5) - 0,15x(6) - 0,514x(17) - 0,332x(18) - 0,495x(19) + + 0,221x(21), a oaeiae ae??oea iaa?iaio caaea/o - io?eiaa iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? aeey iaea?eueo iio??aieo iai iieaciee?a noaio iaaeieeoiueiai na?aaeiaeua ye ooieoe?? iniiaieo caa?ic (a e?oa?aoo?? ?o iaceaathoue iiaeaeyie aaoii?iaiico). I?iaiicia iiaeaeue aeey ieoiieo aeeeae?a caa?oaeiaieo no?/ieo aiae o i?e?iaei? iiaa?oiaa? aiaei? ia’?eoe ia? oaeee aeaeyae: x(7) = 0,929o(1) + 0,164y(2) + 0,160y(3) + 0,035y(4) + (7), aeey ieoiieo aeeeae?a oe?aeeeaeo ?a/iaei a aoiinoa?o: x(8) = 0,918o(1) + 0,003y(2) - 0,110y(3) + 0,060y(4) + (8), a aeey oaa?aeeo a?aeoiae?a i?iieneiaeo i?aei?e?inoa: x(9) = 0,733o(1) - 0,041y(2) - 0,180y(3) + 0,064y(4) + (9). I?iaiicia iiaeaeue aeey ianaeaiiy, yea i?iaeeaa? o cii? iiaeeeaiai o?aaeaiiy neeueiiae?th/eie io?oeieie ?a/iaeiaie: x(11) = 0,727o(1) - 0,060y(2) + 0,353y(3) + 0,057y(4) + (11), aeey ianaeaiiy, yea iio?aiey? aei ciie iiaeeeaiai o?aaeaiiy aeaooi- ? iiaeaaeiiaaacia/ieie ?a/iaeiaie: x(13) = 0,611o(1) + 0,457y(2) + 0,309y(3) - 0,072y(4) + (13), a aeey e?eueeino? ianaeaiiy, yea iio?aiey? o naeniiiaaacia/io ciio: x(15) = 0,055o(1) - 0,192y(2) + 0,915y(3) - 0,039y(4) + (15). I?iaiicia iiaeaeue aeey ciie iiaeeeaeo e?niaeo iiaeaae o iiaeaaeiiaaacia/iee nacii ia? oaeee aeaeyae: x(16) = -0,426o(1) + 0,809y(2) - 0,068y(3) + 0,142y(4) + (16), a aeey noia?ieo cii iiaeeeaiai ?aae?iaeoeaiiai caa?oaeiaiiy i?e iioaioe?eieo aaa??yo ia AAN: x(19) = -0,341o(1) + 0,28y(2) - 0,161y(3) - 0,702y(4) + (19). aea (i) - aeiaaeeia? (caeeoeia?) iioeaee i?iaiico aeo?aeieo noaiaea?oeciaaieo iieaciee?a ca ia?oeie /ioe?ia aieiaieie eiiiiiaioaie. sseui ye a?aeiinio iioeaeo i?iaiico aeo?aeiiai iieacieea x(?) ca ia?oeie aieiaieie eiiiiiaioaie o(?) ?icaeyiooe aaee/eio ? = 100 %(D(i)/Dx(i)), oi ianeeaaei? i?ae?aooiee aeaaeooue cia/aiiy an?o ?. Aeey iaoeo iiaeaeae ? 2%. A?aoiaoth/e neeaaei?noue i?iaeaie ? aaaeeea?noue oaeeo i?iaiic?a, aeaieie iaoaiaoe/ieie iiaeaeyie iiaeia aeineoue oni?oii ei?enooaaoeny ia i?aeoeoe?. O?ao?e ?icae?e i?enay/aii iiaeaethaaiith oiiiaiai ?eceeo, yeee a?aeia?aaea? ??aaiue iaaaoeaiiai aieeao ciai?oi?o oe?aeeeaeo oaeoi??a ia caei?ia’y oa aaciaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie. Aeey aecia/aiiy e?euee?nieo ioe?iie oiiiaiai ?eceeo aaoi? aeei?enoaa o ?iaio? aeaa ??ci? i?aeoiaee. Ia?oee - iiaeaethaaiiy oiiiaiai ?eceeo, iaoiiaeaiiai iaaaoeaiei aieeaii on?o oaoiiaaiieo, i?e?iaeieo oa nioe?aeueieo /eiiee?a ia aaciaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie ca aeiiiiiaith iiaeeo?eiaaii? iiaeae? Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia, ae?oaee - ioe?iea oiiiaiai ?eceeo, iaoiiaeaiiai aieeaii ie?aieo iani?eyoeeaeo /eiiee?a ia aaciaeo ianaeaiiy ca aeiiiiiaith oai?aoeei-eiia??i?nii? iiaeae? ?eceeo. 1). Aeey i?iaaaeaiiy aeaoaeueiiai aiae?co ?ecee?a caa?ic caei?ia’th oa aaciaoe? ethaeeie aeioe?eueii ?ic??ciyoe ?o ca i?e/eiaie nia?oiino?, a naia: - aeciaaii?, ui ni?e/eiai? ciai?oi?ie aieeaaie ia i?aai?ci ethaeeie; - aiaeiaaii? ye ?acoeueoao a?iaeaeaieo caoai?thaaiue /e i?e?iaeiiai noa??iiy. Caeii Aiiia?oea - Iaeeaia aeey aeae?eaiiy aeciaaiii? oa aiaeiaaiii? neeaaeiaeo ?c aeaiia?ao?/ieo aeaieo i?i nia?oi?noue ianaeaiiy ia? oaeee aeaeyae: d(t) = R(t) + exp(), (3) aea d(t) - eiao?oe??ioe nia?oiino? ianaeaiiy, t - ci?iia /ano, - a?e ethaeeie, R(t) - ci?iia, ui caeaaeeoue o?eueee a?ae /ano ? ?icaeyaea?oueny ye cia/aiiy aeciaaiiiai (oiiiaiai) ?eceeo nia?oiino?, /eai exp() ia caeaaeeoue a?ae /ano, a caeaaeeoue a?ae a?eo ? iieno? aiaeiaaiio neeaaeiao ?ioaineaiino? nia?oiino?, ? - iino?ei?. Iaeiae, a?eueo aeaoaeuei? aeine?aeaeaiiy a/aieo iieacaee, ui /eai R(t) oaeiae caeaaeeoue a?ae a?eo , ? a iaaeeaeaii? ??aiyiiy (3) a?i iieno? aeciaaiio neeaaeiao ?ioaineaiino? nia?o? o?eueee ?ioaa?aeueii aeey an?o a?eiaeo a?oi. Ae?ie?i A.E. cai?iiiioaaa iaoaiaoe/io iiaeaeue, yea aeei?enoaia iaie ? ia? aeaeyae: d(,t) = A() + B(t)C(),(4)aea d(t) - eiao?oe??ioe nia?oiino? ianaeaiiy, t - ci?iia /ano, - a?e; R(,t) = B(t)C() -aeciaaiia neeaaeiaa ?ioaineaiino? nia?o?,A() -aiaeiaaiia neeaaeiaa, yea iieno?oueny caeiiii Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia.Aeey aeine?aeaeaiue oiiiaiai ?eceeo nia?oiino? a?ae on?o i?e/ei noaoenoe/iith aacith neoaeeee iaaeeei-aeaiia?ao?/i? aeai? a?eiai? no?oeoo?e eiao?oe??io?a nia?oiino? ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie, ?ic?aoiaai? aaoi?ii ii oaaeeoeyo nia?oiino?, iaaeaieo Aea?aeeiinoaoii Oe?a?ie, ca 1980-1996 ??. ? i?aaenoaaeai? o aeaeyae? ui??/ieo oaaeeoeue, o yeeo a?e ?icaeoee ia 18 a?eiaeo a?oi, a naia: (0-4), (5-9), (10-14), (15-19), (20-24), (25-29), (30-34), (35-39), (40-44), (45-49), (50-54), (55-59), (60-64), (65-69), (70-74), (75-79), (80-84), (85 ? a?eueoa) ?ie?a. Ai?ieneiaoe?y noaoenoe/ieo aeaieo ??aiyiiyi (4) a caaaeueiiio aeaeyae? aeeiiaia iaoiaeii iaeiaioeo eaaae?ao?a. Ci?anoaaeaoe eiaeia cia/aiiy eiao?oe??ioa nia?oiino? ??aiyiith (4) ? aeeiiaaoe a?aeiia?aei? ia/eneaiiy, iaea?aeo?ii: wmetafile8? ????????????? ???????????yyy????.????1????????????? [email protected]???&??yyyy?????Ayyy¤yyy???„?????&[email protected] ???u?????????"????-?????3p???3„???a7???aw???! p???!w???u?th?????? (5)Aecia/aiiy ia?aiao??a cae?enithaaeiny iaoiaeii iine?aeiaieo iaaeeaeaiue c o?aooaaiiyi iaa?ae'?iiino? eiao?oe??io?a Aj, Bi, Cj. ?ic?aooiee aaeeny ?oa?aoe?eiei iaoiaeii, yeee ia? aeaeyae: wmetafile8? ??A ??????????? ???????????yyy????.????1?????????????? ???&??yyyy?????Ayyy·yyya??·?????&[email protected] ???u?????????"????-?????A‡???A› ???1 ~???1 ¦???/????/???u?th?????? (6) (7)sse ioeueiaa iaaeeaeaiiy aeae?aeeny ianooii? cia/aiiy: wmetafile8? ??o??????????? ???????????yyy????.????1????????????? [email protected]???&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyy???4?????&??MathType???? ???u?????????"????-?????p5???Tf ???u?? ???????"????-????f???U???-?????Uµ???b???b ???b???#???#›???u?th???????oa?aoe?eiee i?ioean cae?enithaaany aei aeinyaiaiiy caaeaii? oi/iino? ooeaieo eiao?oe??io?a: wmetafile8? ??a??????????? ???????????yyy????.????1????????????? @?$???&??yyyy?????Ayyy1/4yyyA#??ue?????&??MathType??? ???u?????????"????-?????D?h????wmetafile8? ??y??????????? ???????????yyy????.????1?????? [email protected]????&??yyyy?????Ayyy§[email protected]??c?????&? ?MathType???? ???u?????????"????-?????-o???- [email protected]???a‡???au???O‹ ???·1/4 ???u?? ???????"????-?????1/4 ???I???-?????I ???a?i???a?i???a???? ??? ,???aU???a???u?th??????(10)Iiaiee ?ecee nia?oiino? Ri ia/enethaaany ca oi?ioeith: wmetafile8? ??„??????????? ???????????yyy????.????1??????????????  ???&??yyyy?????Ayyy?yyy` ??4?????&? ?MathType???????u?th??????wmetafile8? ??Aaoi?ii ?ic?iaeaii eiii’thoa?io i?ia?aio ia iia? Object Pascal c aeei?enoaiiyi ia’?eoii-i???ioiaaiiai i?aeoiaeo, yea aeicaiey? ?ic?aooaaoe ia?aiao?e iiaeeo?eiaaii? iiaeae? Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia. I?ia?aio ?aae?ciaaii aeey eiii?eyoi?a Delphi 3 i?ae iia?aoe?eiith nenoaiith Windows 95. Iioeaea ai?ieneiaoe?? iae?i?eii? ia?aiao?eciaaii? iiaeae? aeey anueiai ianaeaiiy neeaea 3,8 %, aeey /ieia?e?a -5,7 %, a aeey ae?iie – 3,2 %. I?iaaaeaia aeine?aeaeaiiy aeaei iiaeeea?noue ioe?ieoe aaee/eio ?ecee?a nia?oiino? ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie a?ae an?o oei?a ciai?oi?o oe?aeeeaeo ae?e. Caoaaaeeii, ui iaea?eueoee a?aenioie aeciaaiiiai ?eceeo i?eiaaea? ia a?eiao a?oio 40-44 ?iee. Oae, o 1995 ?. oiiiaee ?ecee nia?oiino? o oe?e a?eia?e a?oi? neeaaeaa 70,6 %, oiae? ye aiaeiaaiiee ?ecee aei??aithaaa 29,4 %. Aenieee a?aenioie oiiiaiai ?eceeo iathoue a?eia? a?oie a?aeiinii “iieiaeiai” ianaeaiiy. Oea a?oie a?ae 25 aei 60 ?ie?a. Oiiiaee ?ecee oeeo a?oi eieeaa?oueny o iaaeao 60% a?ae iiaiiai ?eceeo nia?oiino?. Aaoi?ii aeine?aeaeaia aeeiai?ea ci?i oiiiaeo ?ecee?a nia?oiino? aeey iaio noaoae, ie?aii aeey /ieia?/iai ? ae?ii/iai ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie ca ia??iae c 1980 ii 1996 ??. Aeine?aeaeaiiy iieacaei, ui aeciaaiiee ?ecee nia?oiino? aeey /ieia?e?a ia i?ioyc? anueiai /ano cia/ii a?eueoee ca ae?ii/ee, a ii/eiath/e c 1990 ?ieo, ii/aa iii?oii c?inoaoe, aeinyaioaoe iaeneiaeueiiai cia/aiiy o 1995 ?ioe?. 2).Oai?aoeei-eiia??i?nia iiaeaeue ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo (aeey ie?aieo i?e/ei nia?oiino?) ia? aeaeyae R = Ap,(14)aea A - iane?aeie iaaaaeaii? iiae?? (nia?oue), p - eiia??i?noue ianoaiiy iaaaaeaii? iiae??. Ine?eueee a aeai?e neooaoe?? p = 1, oi ??aiyiiy (14) iaaoaa? aeaeyaeo: R = A = n/N , (15) aea n - /enei nia?oae, a?aeianaieo aei niaoeeo?/ii? i?e/eie, ui ?o aeeeeeaea, N - aaee/eia ethaenueei? ni?eueiioe Oe?a?ie o na?aaeeiiee iiiaio /aniaiai ia??iaeo. Ocaaaeueiai? iaoeia? aeai? uiaei ??ai?a oiiiaiai ?eceeo ca ie?aieie i?e/eiaie nia?o? ia oa?eoi??? Oe?a?ie noaiii ia 1996 ?. iieacaee, ui aeey ??cieo i?e/ei nia?oiino? a Oe?a?i? a?i iiaea ci?ithaaoeny a oe?ieeo iaaeao: a?ae 7,8610-8 aei 3,8710-4 ia ??e. Aa?oiy a?aieoey oiiiaiai ?eceeo nia?oiino? a?aeiia?aea? o?aaiai aioo??oi?o i?aai?a, iauaniei aeiaaeeai, iia’ycaiei c o?ainii?oii, aaeanoaai. Iniaeeai iaaacia/iee oa?aeoa? ia? ooaa?eoeueic i?aai?a aeeoaiiy. Oeae o?eaiaeiee nienie caaa?oothoue oiiia? ?eceee oaeeo nioe?aeueii iaaacia/ieo yaeu, ye io?o?iiy aeeiaieai, oee?ic ia/?iee, naiiaoanoaa, aeiaaeeia? io?o?iiy, iani?eyoeea? ?aaeoe?? ia ?a/iaeie. ?o iieacieee oiiiaiai ?eceeo iathoue aaee/eio 10-4, ui ia aeaa ii?yaeee ia?aaeuo? aeiionoeiee ??aaiue i?eeiyoiiai ?eceeo a ?icaeiaieo aea?aeaaao. O /aoaa?oiio ?icae?e? ?icaeyaea?oueny no?aoaa?y aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie ye iaeia c ooiaeaiaioaeueieo neeaaeiaeo iaoe?iiaeueii? aaciaee aea?aeaae, ui aa?aioo?oueny eiiieaenii iie?oe/ieo, th?eaee/ieo, aeiiii?/ieo, oaoiieia?/ieo, iaoeiaeo oa aoiai?oa?ieo iaoai?ci?a. Ia iniia? i?iaaaeaieo nenoaiieo aeine?aeaeaiue ca aeiiiiiaith iaoiaeo aiae?co ???a?o?e oa aenia?oieo ioe?iie iaie iiaoaeiaaia ???a?o?/ia iiaeaeue nenoaie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie (?en.1) oa aecia/aii i??i?eoaoe aea?aeaaii? iie?oeee uiaei iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe?. Ne?ae caoaaaeeoe, ui iiaeaeue cia/ii ni?iuaia, i?ioa aeicaiey? io?eiaoe a?aeiia?aeue ia ieoaiiy, yeee ?c aeaiaio?a nenoaie ia? aeuee i??i?eoao o ii??aiyii? c ?ioeie. Ine?eueee aieiaieie neeaaeiaeie iaoiaeo aiae?co ???a?o?e ? ia?i? ii??aiyiiy, a o oi?ioaaii? iao?eoeue ia?ieo ii??aiyiue i?eeiaea o/anoue a?oia aenia?o?a, oi oe? iao?eoe? caiiaithaaeenue aenia?oaie eiaeiei ?iaeea?aeoaeueii, a ?acoeueoaoe ona?aaeithaaeeny c iaoith ia’?aeiaiiy ??cieo noaeaeaiue. I?ney caiiaiaiiy aenia?oaie iao?eoeue ia?ieo ii??aiyiue aeaiaio?a ?ic?aoiaoaaeeny aeani? aaeoi?e oeeo iao?eoeue, ? ia ?o iniia? i??i?eoaoe aeaiaio?a a ???a?o?/i?e iiaeae?. ?en. 1. Nenoaia aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie: ???a?o?/ia iiaeaeue Iiiaeeia aeaiaio?a nenoaie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie ??aaiue 1. Iaoa G Aeieia?/ia aaciaea Oe?a?ie. ??aaiue 2. Caa?ice aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Hs1, Hs2 Hs1: aioo??oi?............................................................... .............................(G) Hs2: ciai?oi?................................................................ ...............................(G) ??aaiue 3. ?eceee caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? aea?aeaae Rs1,Rs2,...,Rs8 Rs1: aeiaaeuei? aeieia?/i? i?iaeaie (icii, iioaie?iiy, oiui).................(Hs2) Rs2: iaaoaeoeaia aeei?enoaiiy i?e?iaeieo ?ano?n?a......................(Hs1, Hs2) Rs3: oaoiiaaii? eaoano?ioe...........................................................(Hs 1, Hs2) Rs4: i?e?iaei? eaoano?ioe.............................................................. .(Hs1, Hs2) Rs5: iane?aeee aaa??? ia *AAN...................................................................( Hs1) Rs6: aeieia?/iee oa?i?eci...............................................................( Hs1, Hs2) Rs7: ?aa?iiaeuei? a?enueeia? eiioe?eoe.......................................................(Hs2) Rs8: aeieia?/i? eiioe?eoe..................... ..................................................(Hs1) ??aaiue 4. Iaoai?cie caaacia/aiiy aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Ks1, Ks2,..., Es6 Ks1: aea?aeaaia nenoaia oi?aae?iiy aeieia?/iith aaciaeith...(Rs1,Rs2,...,Rs8) Ks2: aeiiii?/i? iaoai?cie.........................(Rs1, Rs2, Rs3, Rs4, Rs5, Rs6, Rs8) Ks3: i?iieneiaa aaciaea oa oaoiieia?/i? iniiae aeieia?/ii aacia/iiai ?icaeoeo i?iieneiaino?, aia?aaoeee ? o?ainii?oo.................(Rs1,Rs2,...,Rs8) Ks4: caeiiiaeaa/a oa ii?iaoeaii-i?aaiaa ae?yeuei?noue o noa?? aeieia?/ii? aaciaee................................................................. ...........................(Rs1,Rs2,...,Rs8) Ks5: iaoea........................................................... (Rs1, Rs2, Rs3, Rs4, Rs5, Rs8) Ks6: a?iiaaenuee? i?aai?caoe?? oa iie?oe/i? ia?o??.............................(Rs1, Rs8) sse cana?ae/eee i?iaaaeai? nenoaii? aeine?aeaeaiiy, e?euee?ni? ioe?iee i??i?eoao?a iaoai?ci?a iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie (/aoaa?oee ??aaiue) ?iciiae?eeeeny oaeei /eiii: aeiiii?/i? iaoai?cie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee (0,321), aea?aeaaia nenoaia oi?aae?iiy aeieia?/iith aaciaeith (0,273), i?iieneiaa aaciaea oa oaoiieia?/i? iniiae aeieia?/ii aacia/iiai ?icaeoeo i?iieneiaino?, aia?aaoeee ? o?ainii?oo (0,237), ii?iaoeaii-i?aaiaa ae?yeuei?noue o noa?? aeieia?/ii? aaciaee (0,142), iaoeia? iniiae aeieia?/ii? aaciaee (0,113), a?iiaaenuee? i?aai?caoe?? o noa?? aeieia?/ii? aaciaee (0,006) . Io?eiai? ?acoeueoaoe neoaeaoue iaoeiai iaa?oioiaaiith aacith aeey i?eeiyooy ??oaiue i?aaiaie aea?aeaaii? aeaaee uiaei i?i?i?caoe?? ?ecee?a caa?ic oa i?e oi?ioaaii? iie?oeee aeieia?/ii? aaciaee aea?aeaae. INIIAI? ?ACOEUeOAOE ? AENIIAEE Iniiai? ?acoeueoaoe ? aeniiaee oe??? aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe iiaeooue aooe noenei noi?ioeueiaai? ianooiiei /eiii: 1. A i?ioean? nenoaiiiai aiae?co i?iaeai aeieia?/ii? aaciaee anoaiiaeaii, ui aieiaieie iciaeaie nenoaie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee ye neeaaeii? nenoaie ? no?oeoo?iaai?noue, aca?iicaeaaei?noue ? aca?iica’ycie ?? neeaaeiaeo /anoei, i?aeii?yaeeiaai?noue i?aai?caoe?? an??? nenoaie iaai?e iao?. ?ic?iaeaia ???a?o?/ia iiaeaeue nenoaie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie, ?ic?aoiaai? a?aeiini? aaee/eie ?ioaineaiino? aca?iiae?? aeaiaio?a o aeai?e ???a?o??. 2. Ia iniia? iaoaiaoe/iiai aia?aoo iaoiaeo aieiaieo eiiiiiaio aeyaeaii iniiai? caa?ice aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie, ?ic?iaeaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? iniiaieo caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie ? ae??oaia iaa?iaia caaea/a - io?eiaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? ie?aieo iieaciee?a aaciaee ethaeeie ? aeiae?eey caeaaeii a?ae ianooaa?a ?aae?caoe?? ie?aieo caa?ic /e ?oi?o eiia?iaoe?e, iiaoaeiaaii i??i?eoaoiee ?yae oeeo caa?ic ca nooiaiai ?oiuei? iaaaciaee, na?aae yeeo ia?oa i?noea iin?aea? caa?oaeiaiiy iaaeieeoiueiai na?aaeiaeua oa iaaoaeoeaia aeei?enoaiiy i?e?iaeii-?ano?niiai iioaioe?aeo. I?iaaaeaii eiiieaeniee ii??aiyeueiee aiae?c noaio aeieia?/ii? iaaaciaee ?aa?ii?a Oe?a?ie ca aeiiiiiaith ?ioaa?aeueieo iieaciee?a, yeee iieacaa, ui iaea?eueo iaaacia/ieie aeey i?iaeeaaiiy ? Aeiiaoeueea, Eoaainueea oa Aei?i?iiao?ianueea iaeano?. 3. Ii?aoeueiaaia iaoiaeieia?y aiae?co ?eceeo oa iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? ?eceeo. A ?aieao oe??? iaoiaeieia?? io?eiaii cia/aiiy ia?aiao??a iiaeeo?eiaaii? iiaeae? Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia ? aecia/aii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo aaciaee ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie. C oe??th iaoith ?ic?iaeaii eiii’thoa?io i?ia?aio c aeei?enoaiiyi ia’?eoii-i???ioiaaiiai i?aeoiaeo i?ae iia?aoe?eiith nenoaiith Windows-95 aeey iaoaiaoe/iiai iiaeaethaaiiy oiiiaiai ?eceeo. 4. Aecia/aii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo nia?oiino? ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie a?ae ie?aieo iani?eyoeeaeo /eiiee?a ia aac? oai?aoeei-eiia??i?nii? iiaeae? ?eceeo, i?iaaaeaii aiae?c oaiaeaioe?e uiaei ci?i oiiiaiai ?eceeo. Aeyaeaii, ui ie?ai? iieacieee oiiiaiai ?eceeo a Oe?a?i? iathoue aaee/eio ii?yaeeo 10-4, ui ia aeaa ii?yaeee ia?aaeuo? aeiionoeiee ??aaiue i?eeiyoiiai ?eceeo a ?icaeiaieo aea?aeaaao. 5. Ia iniia? i?iaaaeaieo nenoaiieo aeine?aeaeaiue c aeei?enoaiiyi iaoiaeo aiae?co ???a?o?e oa aenia?oieo ioe?iie aecia/aii i??i?eoaoe aea?aeaaii? iie?oeee uiaei iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie, cai?iiiiiaaii caoiaee uiaei ?? ?aae?caoe??. NIENIE IIOAE?EIAAIEO I?AOeUe CA OAIITH AeENA?OAOe?? 1. A.A. Ea/einueeee, A.A. Oi?eue. Aeieia?/ia aaciaea Oe?a?ie: aiae?c, ioe?iea oa aea?aeaaia iie?oeea, - E.: I?NAe, 1997. - 127n. Caeiaoaa/ai cai?iiiiiaaii i?aeo?ae aei canoinoaaiiy iaoiaeo aieiaieo eiiiiiaio a iaoaiaoe/iiio iiaeaethaaii? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe?, iaea?aeaii e?euee?nio ioe?ieo ??ai?a oeeo caa?ic, ?ic?iaeaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? iieaciee?a aaciaee ethaeeie ? aeiae?eey ye ooieoe?? aieiaieo caa?ic, i?iaaaeaii nenoaiiee aiae?c i??i?eoao?a aea?aeaaii? iie?oeee uiaei iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe? Oe?a?ie. 2. A.A. Ea/einueeee, N.?. Ie?iaeeia, A.A. Oi?eue. Ioe?iea e aiae?c oiiiaiai ?eceeo nia?oiino? a Oe?a?i?, - E.: I?NAe, 1998. – 67n. Caeiaoaa/ai io?eiaii ioe?iee ia?aiao??a iaoaiaoe/ieo iiaeaeae ia aac? iiaeeo?eiaaii? iiaeae? Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia aeey ioe?iee oiiiaeo ?ecee?a ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie a?ae on?o iayaieo i?e/ei oa aecia/aii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaeo ?ecee?a a?ae ie?aieo iani?eyoeeaeo /eiiee?a ca aeiiiiiaith oai?aoeei-eiia??i?nii? iiaeae? ?eceeo. 3. Oi?eue A.A., Aaa?eiaa I.A., Ea/einueeee A.A. Noai oa ioe?iea caa?ic a aeieia?/i?e noa?? //Iaoe?iiaeueia aaciaea Oe?a?ie, 1994-1996 ??.: Iaoeiaa aeiiia?aeue I?NAe. E.: I?NAe, 1997. – N. 85-93. Caeiaoaa/ai i?iaaaeaii nenoaiiee aiae?c noaio aeiae?eey Oe?a?ie (caa?oaeiaiiy aoiinoa?e, a?oio?a, caa?oaeiaiiy aiae a Oe?a?i?, iane?aeee aaa??? ia *i?iiaeeuenuee?e AAN). 4. Oi?eue A.A., Aaa?eiaa I.A., Ea/einueeee A.A. I?aeaeuaiiy ??aiy aeieia?/ii? aaciaee //Iaoe?iiaeueia aaciaea Oe?a?ie, 1994-1996 ??.: Iaoeiaa aeiiia?aeue I?NAe. E.: I?NAe, 1997. – N. 173-179. Caeiaoaa/ai i?iaaaeaii aiae?c ii?iaoea?a a?aie/ii-aeiionoeieo eiioeaio?aoe?e oe?aeeeaeo niieoe. AIIOAOe?? Oi?eue A.A. Nenoaiiee aiae?c i?iaeai aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie. – ?oeiien. Aeena?oaoe?y ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa oaoi?/ieo iaoe ca niaoe?aeuei?noth 01.05.04 – nenoaiiee aiae?c ? oai??y iioeiaeueieo ??oaiue. – Iaoe?iiaeueiee oaoi?/iee oi?aa?neoao Oe?a?ie “Ee?anueeee iie?oaoi?/iee ?inoeooo”, Ee?a, 1999 ?. Aeena?oaoe?y i?enay/aia nenoaiiiio aiae?co ? iiaeaethaaiith aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie. ?ic?iaeaii iaoaiaoe/i? iiaeae? iniiaieo caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe?, aecia/aii ?ioaa?aeuei? iieacieee noaio aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie a ?aa?iiaeueiiio ?ic??c?. Aecia/aii ioe?iee ia?aiao??a iiaeeo?eiaaii? iiaeae? Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia, ia iniia? yeeo io?eiaii e?euee?ni? ioe?iee oiiiaiai ?eceeo ye i??e aieeao ciai?oi?o oe?aeeeaeo oaeoi??a ia caei?ia’y oa aaciaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie. ?ic?iaeaii ???a?o?/io iiaeaeue nenoaie aeieia?/ii? aaciaee Oe?a?ie, aecia/aii i??i?eoaoe aea?aeaaii? iie?oeee uiaei iaeo?ae?caoe?? caa?ic aeieia?/i?e aaciaoe?. Eeth/ia? neiaa: nenoaiiee aiae?c, iaoaiaoe/ia iiaeaeue, aeieia?/ia aaciaea, ?ecee, oi?aae?iiy. Oieeue A.A. Nenoaiiue aiaeec i?iaeai yeieiae/aneie aaciianiinoe Oe?aeiu. – ?oeiienue. Aeenna?oaoeey ia nieneaiea o/?iie noaiaie eaiaeeaeaoa oaoie/aneeo iaoe ii niaoeeaeueiinoe 01.05.04 – nenoaiiue aiaeec e oai?ey iioeiaeueiuo ?aoaiee. - Iaoeeiiaeueiue oaoie/aneee oieaa?neoao Oe?aeiu “ Eeaaneee iieeoaoie/aneee einoeooo”, Eeaa, 1999 a. Aeenna?oaoeey iinayuaia nenoaiiiio aiaeeco e iiaeaee?iaaieth yeieiae/aneie aaciianiinoe Oe?aeiu. ?ac?aaioaiu iaoaiaoe/aneea iiaeaee iniiaiuo oa?ic yeieiae/aneie aaciianiinoe, ii?aaeaeaiu eioaa?aeueiua iieacaoaee ninoiyiey yeieiae/aneie aaciianiinoe Oe?aeiu a ?aaeiiaeueiii n?aca. Ii?aaeaeaiu ioeaiee ia?aiao?ia iiaeeoeoee?iaaiiie iiaeaee Aiiia?oea-Iaeeaia, ia iniiaaiee eioi?uo iieo/aiu eiee/anoaaiiua ioeaiee oiiiaiai ?enea eae ia?u aeeyiey aiaoieo a?aaeiuo oaeoi?ia ia caei?iauea e aaciianiinoue ianaeaiey Oe?aeiu. ?ac?aaioaia ea?a?oe/aneay iiaeaeue nenoaiu yeieiae/aneie aaciianiinoe Oe?aeiu, ii?aaeaeaiu i?ei?eoaou ainoaea?noaaiiie iieeoeee ii iaeo?aeecaoeee oa?ic yeieiae/aneie aaciianiinoe. Eeth/aaua neiaa: nenoaiiue aiaeec, iaoaiaoe/aneay iiaeaeue, yeieiae/aneay aaciianiinoue, ?ene, oi?aaeaiea. Khmil A.A. System analysis of problems ecological security of Ukraine. – Manuscript. Thesis for a candidate’s degree of technical sciences (Ph.D.) by speciality 01.05.04 – system analysis and theory of optimal solutions. National technical university of Ukraine “Kyiv politechnical institute”, - Kyiv, 1999. The dissertation is devoted to the system analysis and modelling of ecological security of Ukraine. The mathematical models of main threats to ecological security are designed, the integral indexes of a state of ecological security of Ukraine in a regional edge are defined. The estimates of parameters of modified model Gompertz-Maqeman are defined, on the basis of which the quantitative assessments of background risk as measure of influence of the exterior harmful factors on health and security of the population of Ukraine are obtained. The hierarchical model of a system of ecological security of Ukraine is designed, the priorities of state policy of neutralizing threats to ecological security are defined. Key words: system analysis, mathematical model, ecological security, risk, control. Aaoi? aeneiaeth? ue?o iiaeyeo nai?io iaoeiaiio eiinoeueoaioo, aeieoi?o oaoi?/ieo iaoe Aeaieeiao Aaea??th sseiae/o ca aeiiiiiao i?e aeeiiaii? ?icae?eo 3 aeena?oaoe?? “Ioe?iea oiiiaiai ?eceeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie iaoiaeaie iaoaiaoe/iiai iiaeaethaaiiy” oa ca ieceo oe?iieo ii?aae i?e ioi?ieaii? aeena?oaoe??.

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