Ee?anueeee oi?aa?neoao ?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea

OAeE 338.92+519.86(477)

Neia?ue Aiae??e Ieaenaiae?iae/

IIAeAE? EI?IOEINO?IEIAIAI I?IAIICOAAIIss AAETHOIEO EO?N?A A OIIAAO
IAAeINOAOIUeI? ?IOI?IAOe??

Niaoe?aeuei?noue 08.03.02 – aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ia iiaeaethaaiiy

Aaoi?aoa?ao aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy

eaiaeeaeaoa aeiiii?/ieo iaoe

Ee?a — 1998

Aeena?oaoe?y ? ?oeiienii

?iaioa aeeiiaia ia eaoaae?? aeiiii?/ii? e?aa?iaoeee aeiiii?/iiai
oaeoeueoaoo Iaoe?iiaeueiiai oi?aa?neoaoo ?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea.

Iaoeiaee ea??aiee –

Eaiaeeaeao o?ceei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoe, i?ioani? Ea?aaiaeiaa Ieaia
Ieaenaiae??aia, i?ioani? eaoaae?e aeiiii?/ii? e?aa?iaoeee aeiiii?/iiai
oaeoeueoaoo Ee?anueeiai oi?aa?neoaoo ?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea.

Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe –

Aeieoi? aeiiii?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani? A?oe?inueeee Aieueaeaia?
Aieiaeeie?iae/, i?ioani? eaoaae?e aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoiae?a
Ee?anueeiai iaoe?iiaeueiiai aeiiii?/iiai oi?aa?neoaoo;

Eaiaeeaeao aeiiii?/ieo iaoe, aeioeaio Eoe’yiaiei ??eia A?eai??aia,
aeioeaio eaoaae?e aeiiii?/ii? oai??? aeaia?oaiaioo aeiiii?/ieo iaoe
Iaoe?iiaeueiiai oi?aa?neoaoo “Ee?ai-Iiaeeyinueea aeaaeai?y”.

I?ia?aeia onoaiiaa – ?inoeooo aeiiii?/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
Iaoe?iiaeueiiai? Aeaaeai?? Iaoe Oe?a?ie, a?aeae?e iiaeaethaaiiy
aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo, i.Ee?a.

Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny “30” a?oaeiy 1998 ?ieo i 12 aiaeei? ia can?aeaii?
niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Ae 26.001.13 Ee?anueeiai oi?aa?neoaoo
?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea ca aae?anith: 252022, i.Ee?a, aoe.Aaneeuee?anueea,
90a, aoae.704.

C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoenue o a?ae?ioaoe? Ee?anueeiai
oi?aa?neoaoo ?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea ca aae?anith: 252033, i.Ee?a,
aoe.Aieiaeeie?nueea, 58, e?i.10.

Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaiee 26 eenoiiaaea 1998 ?ieo.

A/aiee nae?aoa?

Niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Eaiiaiei I.I.

CAAAEUeIA OA?AEOA?ENOEEA ?IAIOE

Aeooaeuei?noue aeine?aeaeaiiy. Oe?a?ia ?iaeoue ?aaeuei? e?iee a iai?yieo
aoiaeaeaiiy o na?oiaee aeiiii?/iee i?ioean, naiai i?eeo/aiiy aei
ooieoe?iiaeueieo no?oeoo? no/anii? oeea?e?caoe??. Iaiao?aei?noue
ia?aaeaa/aiiy eiia??iiai ia?aa?ao iiae?e ia iaeaooi? i?eiee ?ai?oa ia
aoea oaeith aaaeeeaith, ye ca?ac. Aaeineiiaeaiiy i?aeoiae?a aei aiae?co
eiie?aoii? neooaoe?? a aeiiii?oe? a oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe?? ua
o?eaaeee /an aoaea noiooi?i i?ioeanii i?eeiyooth ??oaiue, ui aoaeo?oueny
ia i?iaiic?. ??oaiiy, ui i?eeiathoueny nueiaiaei?, nie?athoueny ia
iciaee ?icaeoeo yaeu o iaeaooiueiio, a naith /a?ao aiie a?eueo /e iaio
aieeaathoue ia oea iaeaooi? aeiiiiiaea oieeiooe i?eioeeiiaeo iiieeie a
ainiiaea?nuee?e ae?yeueiino?.

I?iaiinoe/iee aiae?c o?iainiai? noa?e, ci?ie iai?iieo eo?n?a aaetho
iniaeeai aaaeeeaee i?e caaino?aii? ainiiaea?nueei-aeiiii?/ieo ?
iie?oe/ieo a?aeiinei o aea?aeaa?.

Aaethoiee eo?n — ia eeoa “oe?ia” iaei??? a?ioiai? iaeeieoe?, ae?aaeaia a
?io?e, oea neioacoth/ee iieaciee, ui ae?aaea? aa?o?nia ni?aa?aeiioaiiy
iaoe?iiaeueieo aeiiii?e, ?o ciai?oith eiieo?aioiicaeaoi?noue. sse ?
aoaeue-yea oe?ia, aaethoiee eo?n o??? /e ?ioi? a?ioiai? iaeeieoe?
oi?io?oueny i?ae aaciina?aaei?i aieeaii iiieoo e i?iiiceoe??, ui
anoaiiaeththoueny o eiaeiiio eiie?aoiiio aeiaaeeo ia aaethoiiio ?eieo.
O oeueiio ca’yceo oe?eeii c?icoi?ei, ui aeineoue nooo?aa a?aeoeeaiiy
ae?th/eo aaethoieo eo?n?a aeayeeo a?ioiaeo iaeeieoeue (oe?a?inueei?
a?eai?, ?in?enueeiai ?oaey) a?ae ia?eoaoo ?oiuei? eoi?aaeueii?
ni?iiiaeiino? cia/iith i??ith iiynith?oueny iaaeinoaoiueith
i?iiiceoe??th a?eueii eiiaa?oiaaii? aaethoe ia a?aeiia?aeieo ?eieao.

Aeai?, iaa?iiaaeaeai? ca /an niinoa?aaeaiiy iaae ia’?eoii, ua ia
aeathoue i?aenoaae aaaaeaoe, ui ? ae/a?iia ?ioi?iaoe?y i?i oeae ia’?eo
aeey i?aaeeueii? ioe?iee eiai iaeaooiueiai ?icaeoeo. ?icaeoie
aeiiii?/ii? nenoaie caaaeaee i?ieeaaea? nia? oeyo /a?ac ie?ai? iaeeie/i?
yaeua a oiiaao c?oeiaiiy /eiiee?a ??cii? ni?yiiaaiino? ? oiio
iieno?oueny noioanoe/iei i?ioeanii. O aaaaoueio aeiaaeeao iiaiee iaa??
oaeoi??a, ui aieeaathoue ia iiaaae?ieo aaethoiiai eo?no, iaa?aeiiee. Oea
coiiaeth? iaiao?aei?noue iiooe?a iiaeo i?aeoiae?a aei i?iaiicoaaiiy
aaethoieo eo?n?a a ei?ioeino?ieiaiio aniaeo?, ui iniaeeai aaaeeeai aeey
aeai?o a?aeiia?aeieo no?aoaa?e iiaaae?iee i?e?iaeiiii?/ieo noa’?eo?a
ainiiaea?thaaiiy.

Iiaeaethaaiiy iai?iieo eo?n?a aaetho ia i?aenoaa? ie?aieo oaeoi??a
(iai?eeeaae, ia iniia? aiae?co ci?i oe?ie ia i?iaeoeoe?th, ui
aenii?oo?oueny oa ?iii?oo?oueny), aai c iaoith iioei?caoe?? i?eaooeo
a?ae noi?aeii? oi?a?aaeueii? ae?yeueiino? ia ??ai? e?a?i-ia?oia??a, ye
cacia/athoue A. O?io?iia ? A. Ae?en??a [], ia? ooiaeaiaioaeueia
cia/aiiy. A iaaeao oeueiai aeine?aeaeaiiy aeeeeea? ?ioa?an ianaiia?aae
nai /aniaee ?yae aaethoieo eo?n?a, a oaeiae o? oaeoia?ao?/i? i?aeoiaee
aei i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a, ui aacothoueny ia?aaaaeii ia iueiio.

Aiae?c caaaeueiiai aieeao ? aca?iiae?? ie?aieo iieaciee?a ?icaeoeo
aeiiii?/ii? nenoaie aeicaiey? aenoiooe /?oeo a?iioaco i?i iaeaooi?
cia/aiiy eiie?aoiiai iieacieea. Aaethoia nenoaia ca nai?th aioo??oiueith
aoaeiaith caaaeaee aoea ? aaaaea?oueny iei? iaeneeaaei?oith eaieith
na?oi-ainiiaea?nueeeo ca’yce?a. I?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a, iniaeeai
ei?ioeino?ieiaa, aea? iiaeeea?noue ??ciei aeiiii?/iei noa’?eoai
aiaaiai?oa anooiaoe o i?aeia?iaei? aeiiii?/i? a?aeiineie, a?eueo
?aoe?iiaeueii ieaioaaoe ?ici?uaiiy eai?oaeo c o?aooaaiiyi iiaeeeainoae
aeei?enoaiiy aaetho ye ia’?eoa aeeaaeaiiy eai?oae?a, ui iniaeeai
aeooaeueii a oiiaao ?ioeyoe??.

Aeey ea??aiee?a, ye? i?eeiathoue ??oaiiy, ye i?aaeei, aeinooiia
?ioi?iaoe?y o /aniaiio aei??? i?i iane?aeee aieeao iaaieo oaeoi??a,
oiaoi aiie i???ioothoueny ia aeai?, io?eiai? a ?acoeueoao?
niinoa?aaeaiue iaae iieacieeaie, ui aecia/athoueny ye ooieoe?y a?ae
/ano. Oaeei /eiii, neooaoe?th iaaeinoaoiuei? noaoenoeee iiaeia aecia/eoe
ye a?ae ?ioi?iaoe?? i?i oaeoi?e, ui aieeaathoue ia iiaaae?ieo
eiie?aoiiai iieacieea, ca iayaiino? eeoa /aniaiai ?yaeo.

Noaoenoe/iee aiae?c aea? iiaeeea?noue ii??aiyoe o?iainiaee noai ia’?eoa,
ui ?icaeyaea?oueny, c ?ioeie ? aeicaiey? aeei?enoaoe io?eiai? aeai? aeey
ieaioaaiiy aeiaaio?eaaeeo ?iaanoeoe?e ? aecia/aiiy ae?iaie/eo
iiooaeiinoae. Ca aeiiiiiaith aiae?co noaoenoe/ieo aeaieo noa’?eo
ainiiaea?thaaiiy iiaea ia?aaeaa/eoe ci?ie a ianyaao i?iaeaaeo,
nei?enoaoeny ?ioi?iaoe??th aeey a/aniiai o?iainoaaiiy nai?o oei/aniaeo
iio?aa, a/anii caeoieoe ne?iaeio oa ea?oaaoe i?ioeanii iaa?iiaaeaeaiiy
caian?a. Aeine?aeaeoth/e oe? i?ioeane, A. Iaeaiai [] ?iaeoue aeniiaie,
ui aeei?enoaiiy noaoenoe/ieo iiaeaeae aeey i?iaiicoaaiiy a?ioiaeo
iaaeoiaeaeaiue c o?aooaaiiyi ??aiy ?eceeo ? neeaaeiaith o i?ioean?
i?eeiyooy aeiiii?ei-o?iainiaeo ??oaiue.

I?iaaaeaiee iaoeiaee iiooe oa aiae?c iaoeiaeo i?aoeue aeicaieea
anoaiiaeoe iaai? oaiaeaioe?? a i?aeoiaeao aei aea/aiiy aeaii? i?iaeaie.
Iniaeeai? oaaae caneoaiao? iiceoe?y ?. I?na oa E. ?iaiooa []. Aiia
iieyaa? o a?aeiia?aeiino? aeeiai?ee aaethoieo eo?n?a oae caaiei
aeiaaeeiaei aeoeaiiyi oa ia?aaeaa/oaaii? iaeaooi?o cia/aiue eo?n?a ia
iniia? aiae?co oieiaeo oa ?iioeueneaieo ci?i. Aaoi?ii ii?aoeueiaai?
iaoiaeeee i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a, iiaoaeiaai? ia aiae?c?
aeeiai?ee eo?niooai?thth/eo oaeoi??a (aeeiai?ee oe?i, ieao?aeiiai
aaeaino, iniiaieo oaiaeaioe?e no?oeoo?ii? iie?oeee, ?aca?aieo iiceoe?e,
iie?oe/ii? noaa?eueiino? oa ?i.).

Aaethoi? eo?ne iiaeooue i?iaiicoaaoeny ye ia iae?i-, oae ? ia
i?e?i??aiyo. I?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a ia iae?i??ai? aaco?oueny ia
aiae?c? na?aaeiuei- oa aeiaaino?ieiaeo oaeoi??a ?icaeoeo a?aeiia?aeieo
i?ioean?a /e yaeu (cia/iith i??ith /a?ac ia?eoao eoi?aaeueieo
ni?iiiaeiinoae, i?i ui ? ae/a?iia ?ioi?iaoe?y, oi/a, iiaeeeai, ? c
aeayeeie iioeaeaie). Nooiino? ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
a?aeiia?aea? a ia?oo /a?ao i?e?iaeiiii?/iee i?aeo?ae. I?aea?oioyi
no/aniiai ??aiy aeine?aeaeaiue o oeueiio iai?yieo iiaeooue aenooiaoe, c
iaeiiai aieo, iiiaoa?i? i?aeoiaee, a c ?ioiai — iniiae noaoenoe/iiai
aiae?co oa aeiiiiao?e/i? i?aeoiaee.

Ooiaeaiaioaeuei? aeine?aeaeaiiy noaoenoe/ieo oa aeiiii?/ieo i?iaeai
cae?enieee A. Aeaieaeaiei, TH. Eoeaoei, A. *aoe?e?i, Aeae. Aien,

A. Aeaeaie?in, ?. A?aoi, N. A?aiaeaea?, ?. Iuethaieae, N. Oieo, A.
Oia?aaen, I. A?ioa?n, A. Eanoa?, A. Oaee, A. Iaeaiai, A. Aieea? oa ?io?.

O aeena?oaoe?? aeei?enoiaothoueny oaeiae caeiaooee i?ia?aeieo a/aieo, ui
?ice?eaathoue nooi?noue o?iainiai-a?ioiai? oai??? oa iiiaoa?ieo
i?aeoiae?a: I. Ae. Aaneeeea, I. ?. Eino?ii?, ?. *aiaa?a, ?. Aei?iaooa,
?. Ae?oea?/oea, ?. I?oaina, A. Iaioaeinoa, A. Ioea, N. Ooeueiaenoa?a, E.
Oaenana, A. Aeieaia oa ?ioeo.

Ia’?eo aeine?aeaeaiiy — aeeiai?ea aaethoieo eo?n?a ye ?acoeueooth/eo
iieaciee?a.

I?aaeiao aeine?aeaeaiiy — i?iaeaie ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??.

Iaoa ?iaioe — oi?ioaaiiy oai?aoeei-iaoiaeieia?/iiai i?aea?oioy
canoinoaaiiy aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iiaeaeae ei?ioeino?ieiaiai
i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??.

Aeey aeinyaiaiiy oe??? iaoe a aeena?oaoe?? ae??oothoueny oae? iniiai?
caaaeaiiy:

iaa?oioiaothoueny oai?aoeei-iaoiaeieia?/i? canaaee aeine?aeaeaiiy ?
?ic?iaee iiaeae? ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a ye
caniao iaoeiaiai i?ciaiiy oa iaoeiai? ?ai?acaioaoe?? ?o aeeiai?ee a
oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??;

aeine?aeaeothoueny iniiai? ia?aiao?e iiaeae? o ?o ?icaeoeo, aca?iiae?? ?
aca?iicaeaaeiino?;

aeine?aeaeo?oueny iiaaae?iea aeiiii?/ieo noa’?eo?a a oiiaao
iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe?? a caeaaeiino? a?ae iiaeeeainoae
ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a.

Iaoiaee aeine?aeaeaiiy. A aeena?oaoe?? canoiniaothoueny eiiieaeni?
iaoiaee: oaeoia?ao?/i?, aenia?oi? oa eiia?iiaai?; aeno?aiieyoe?y oa
?ioa?iieyoe?y; eii’thieoo?i? iaoiaee; iaoiaee ioe?iee no?oeoo?ieo
iiaeaeae; iaoiaee aiae?co /aniaeo ?yae?a, iiaeaethaaiiy i?iaiico
aca?iiae?? aaethoieo eo?n?a; aaeaioeai? iaoiaee i?iaiicoaaiiy, ui
aeicaieythoue aeiaanoe a??ia?aei?noue io?eiaieo ?acoeueoao?a,
i?inoaaeeoe aeeiai?eo ?icaeoeo cai?iiiiiaaii? iiaeae?, a oaeiae
canoiniaothoueny aiae?c, ocaaaeueiaiiy ? nenoaiaoecaoe?y niinia?a
ia?iaee ?ioi?iaoe??.

Iaoeiaa iiaecia iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a iieyaa? o aecia/aii? oa
iaoeiaiio iaa?oiooaaii? iniiaieo iai?yi?a i?iaiinoe/ieo i?aeoiae?a aei
iiaeaethaaiiy o?iainiai? noa?e, aeyaeaii? e ?ice?eoo? iniiaieo
oaiaeaioe?e ?icaeoeo aca?iiae?? aaethoieo eo?n?a c iniiaieie
aeiiii?/ieie iieacieeaie, ?ic?iaoe? ia oe?e iniia? iiaeae? ioe?ithaaiiy
oa i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao ?aaeueii? aeeiai?ee
aaethoiiai ?eieo.

Iaea?eueo nooo?aei a aniaeo? iaoeiai? iiaecie ? ii?aeiaiiy
caaaeueii-aeiiii?/ieo i?aeoiae?a, i?aeoe/ieo canoinoaaiue a?ioiai?
oai??? oa aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoiae?a ? iiaeaeae i?iaiinoe/ii?
ni?yiiaaiino?. Oaea ii?aeiaiiy aeicaieeei ?ic?iaeoe i?ea?iaeueio
aeeiai?/io iiaeaeue aca?iiae?? aaethoieo eo?n?a ? ie?aieo aeiiii?/ieo
iieaciee?a, yea aeiiiaith?oueny i?aeoiaeaie iioi/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
/aniaeo ?yae?a. Ia a?aei?io a?ae iiia?aaei?o aeine?aeaeaiue,
canoinoaaiiy i?iaiinoe/ieo iaoiaeee ioe?ithaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a
Oe?a?i?, eio?? aacothoueny ia aeno?aiieyoe?? cia/aiue ioeueoeie?eaoeaieo
/aniaeo ?yae?a oa oaeoi?iiio aiae?c?, a aeai?e ?iaio? aecia/aii
ia?aaeoiiae ?icaeoeo aaethoieo eo?n?a iaiaaeaii-eiiaa?oiaaieo aaetho
o?ainoi?iaoe?eieo aeiiii?e, aiae?cothoueny ?aa?an?ei? ca’ycee i?ae
iieacieeaie, ui ?icaeyaeathoueny, oa aeno?aiieyoe?ei? i/?eoaaiiy
noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy.

I?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy io?eiaieo ?acoeueoao?a aeine?aeaeaiiy noaiiaeyoue:
ocaaaeueiaiiy oa nenoaiaoecaoe?y iayaieo iaoiaeee i?iaiinoe/iiai
iiaeaethaaiiy aeeiai?ee aaethoieo eo?n?a; noai?aiiy caaaeueii?
iaoaiaoe/ii? iiaeae?, ui aeicaiey? i?iaiicoaaoe ci?ie o aaethoiiio
eo?n?. Cai?iiiiiaaia iiaeaeue iiaea aooe aeei?enoaia aeey ia?aaeaa/aiiy
aaethoiiai eo?no oa iioi/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy; a ei?ioeino?ieiaiio
i?iaiicoaaii? iiaea aenooiaoe ?iai/ith a?iioacith a aii??e/ieo
aeine?aeaeaiiyo oaeeo noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy ye aaiee, ?iaanoeoe?ei?
eiiiai??, ?io? o?iainia? onoaiiae oiui.

Aeei?enoaiiy eiiieaenieo iaoiaeee ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy a
aiae?c? o?iainiaeo iieaciee?a, iiae?aieo aei iai?iiiai aaethoiiai eo?no,
aeicaiey? ia i?e?i??ai? ?aoe?iiaeueii i?aeoiaeeoe aei aeai?o no?aoaa??
?icaeoeo; ia iae?i??ai? — aea? iiaeeea?noue ei?eaoaaoe a?ioiao iie?oeeo
a oiiaao, ui oaeaeei ci?iththoueny.

?acoeueoaoe i?iaaaeaiiai aeine?aeaeaiiy oa ?aeiiaiaeaoe?? uiaei ?o
aeei?enoaiiy canoiniaothoueny o iaa/aeueiiio i?ioean? i?e aeeeaaeaii?
ii?iaoeaieo oa niaoe?aeueieo eo?n?a.

A??ia?aei?noue iaoeiaeo iieiaeaiue, aeniiae?a oa ?aeiiaiaeaoe?e
caaacia/o?oueny iaoiaeieia?/iith ? oai?aoe/iith iaa?oioiaai?noth
aeo?aeieo iiceoe?e; a?aeiia?aei?noth aeei?enoaieo iaoiae?a, aaeaeaaoieo
iao? e caaaeaiiyi aeine?aeaeaiiy; iaoeiaei aiae?cii oaeoieia?/iiai
iaoa??aeo ? ii?aeiaiiyi eia?ei-oai?aoe/iiai oa aeiiii?ei- iaoaiaoe/iiai
i?aeoiae?a aei iiaeaethaaiiy aeeiai?ee aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao
iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??.

Iniaenoee aianie caeiaoaa/a

Iaa?oioiaaii oai?aoeei-iaoiaeieia?/i? canaaee aeine?aeaeaiiy ?
?ic?iaeaii iiaeaeue ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a ye
caniao iaoeiaiai i?ciaiiy oa iaoeiai? ?ai?acaioaoe?? ?o aeeiai?ee a
oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??. Aeine?aeaeaii iniiai? ia?aiao?e
iiaeae? o ?o ?icaeoeo, aca?iiae?? oa aca?iicaeaaeiino?.

I?inoaaeaii iniiai? iai?yie i?iaiinoe/ieo i?aeoiae?a aei iiaeaethaaiiy
aaethoieo ?eie?a. Cae?eniaii aiae?c ?aa?an?eieo iaoai?ci?a ioe?ithaaiiy
oa i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao ?aaeueii? aeeiai?ee
aaethoiiai ?eieo. Iiaoaeiaaii oa?aeoa?i? i?iaiice aaethoieo eo?n?a ia
??cieo aoaiao ?icaeoeo iniiaieo aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a a Oe?a?i?.

Cae?eniaii aeine?aeaeaiiy iiaaae?iee aeiiii?/ieo noa’?eo?a a oiiaao
iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe?? a caeaaeiino? a?ae iiaeeeainoae
ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a.

Ai?iaaoe?y ?acoeueoao?a aeena?oaoe??. Iaoa??aee aeena?oaoe??
aeiiia?aeaeenue ia Anaoe?a?inuee?e iaoeia?e eiioa?aioe??
“Iaoeiai-i?aeoe/i? i?iaeaie ?iaanoeoe?eii? oa ?iiiaaoe?eii? iie?oeee
aea?aeaae” (5—6 /a?aiy 1997 ?., i. Ee?a); ia iaoeiaeo nai?ia?ao
?inoeoooo noaoenoeee oa aeiiiiao??? Ithioainueeiai oi?aa?neoaoo ?iai?
Ethaea?aa-Iaenei?e?aia (Ithioai, 1995, 1997 ??.) oa I?aeia?iaeii? oeiee
aeiiii?ee (Oiiae Ni?ina, Iieueua, 1995, 1996 ??.); ia iaoeiaeo
eiioa?aioe?yo aeiiii?/iiai oaeoeueoaoo oa iaoeiaeo nai?ia?ao eaoaae?e
aeiiii?/ii? e?aa?iaoeee aeiiii?/iiai oaeoeueoaoo Iaoe?iiaeueiiai
oi?aa?neoaoo ?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea (1995, 1996, 1997, 1998 ??.).

Iaoa oa caaaeaiiy aeine?aeaeaiiy, eiai iaoiaeeea, caeiaooee o oiae?
?iaioe oai?aoe/iee oa aii??e/iee iaoa??ae coiiaeee no?oeoo?o
aeena?oaoe??, yea neeaaea?oueny ?c anooio, o?ueio ?icae?e?a, aeniiae?a
(caaaeueiei ianyaii 161 noi?.), nieneo aeei?enoaieo aeaea?ae (226
iaca), 34 ?enoie?a oa oaaeeoeue.

INIIAIEE CI?NO ?IAIOE

O anooi? aena?oeaii aaoi?nueea aa/aiiy aeooaeueiino? oaie ? no/aniiai
noaio ?? aea/aiiy; iaoa oa caaaeaiiy aeine?aeaeaiiy, eiai iaoeiaa
iiaecia oa i?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy; aecia/aii iniaenoee aianie caeiaoaa/a,
ci?no ? aoaie ai?iaaoe?? ?acoeueoao?a aeena?oaoe??, iaaaaeaii
ioae?eaoe?? aaoi?a c aeaii? oaie.

O ia?oiio ?icae?e? “Oai?aoeei-iaoiaeieia?/i? canaaee aeine?aeaeaiiy
ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei?
?ioi?iaoe??” i?iaiae?ciaai? oai?aoe/i? i?iiiceoe?? noaoenoeee, aeiiii?ee
oa o?iain?a, iaiao?aei?noue ?ioaa?aoe?? yeeo uiaei iiiyooy “aeiiii?/ia
i?iaiicoaaiiy” ona?aeiieth?oueny i?e ?icaeyae? aeeiai?ee aaethoieo
eo?n?a.

O i?ae?icae?e? 1.1 “Iaoiaee i?iaiicoaaiiy oa ?o canoinoaaiiy a
aeiiii?oe?” ?ice?eoa oa?i?iieia?/ia aaca aeiiii?/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy ?
?ice?eo? eiai iniiai? ooieoe??. Aeine?aeaeo?oueny o?e??aiaaa nenoaia
iaoiae?a aeiiii?/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy o oaeeo aniaeoao: 1) ?ioi?iaoe?eia
aaca; 2) niiniae ia?iaee ?ioi?iaoe??; 3) nooi?noue eiie?aoieo iaoiae?a.
?ioi?iaoe?eio aaco noaiiaeyoue aeai? a?oie oaeoia?ao?/ieo iaoiae?a
(aaciina?aaeiuei oaeoe/i? aeai? ??cii? iiaiioe, oi/iino? ?
aeinoia??iino? i?i ?icaeoie aeine?aeaeoaaiiai yaeua), aenia?oieo ?
eiia?iiaaieo iaoiae?a. Caaaeuei? i?aeoiaee ?icaeyaeathoueny a aniaeoao
eii’thieoo?ieo iaoiae?a, iaoiae?a ioe?iee no?oeoo?ieo iiaeaeae ?
iaoiae?a aiae?co /aniaeo ?yae?a.

O i?ae?icae?e? 1.2 “Iaoiaee oi?ioaaiiy i/?eoaaiue” aeine?aeaeothoueny
noaoe/i?, aaoi?aa?an?ei? oa ?aoe?iiaeuei? i/?eoaaiiy. Ia i?eeeaaeao
aiae?co i?ioean?a ??cii? i?e?iaee ?ice?eaa?oueny a?iioaca
aeno?aiieyoe?eiiai cia?aaeaiiy i/?eoaaiue, eio?a i?aeoaa?aeaeo?, ui
aeiiii?/i? noa’?eoe i?e ieoo?aeo ci?iao ia?aiao??a iia’ycothoue eeoa
cono??/i? cia/aiiy ci?iieo iiia?aaeiueiai ia??iaeo. Aiae?co?oueny
iaoai?ci aea/aiiy aeeiai?ee i?ioean?a, ui iaee i?noea a ieioeiio, oa
iiaeeeaino? i?enoinoaaiiy i/?eoaaiue aei iioeiaeueieo ioe?iie
aeine?aeaeoaaieo ?iaeeeaoi??a oa i?iaiicieo cia/aiue.

O i?ae?icae?e? 1.3 “Iaoiaeieia?y ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
o?iainiai-aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a” ?ice?eaathoueny oai?aoe/i? canaaee e
aniaeoe i?iaiicoaaiiy noaoe?iia?ieo oa ianoaoe?iia?ieo
o?iainiai-aeiiii?/ieo i?ioean?a, a oaeiae aaethoiiai eo?no ye
?acoeueooth/iai iieacieea. Aiae?cothoueny eiioeaiooaeuei? i?aeoiaee aei
ioe?iee aaethoieo eo?n?a o ieiuei? ciai?oiueiaeiiii?/ieo ca’yce?a.
I?e?iaeiiii?/iee aiae?c i?eaiaeeoue aei ?icaeyaeo iioeaaoe?? iiaaae?iee
noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy ia aaethoiiio ?eieo: ciai?oi? oi?a?aoe?
i?aaiooue caiia?aaoe aaethoiei ?eceeai; niaeoeyioe — aeinyaoe ?eceeiaeo
iaaei?eaooe?a; aeiaaino?ieia? aeeaaeieee eai?oae?a — ?iciiae?eeoe
ii?ooaeue; ei?ioeino?ieia? aeeaaeieee eai?oae?a — i?ioeaioiiai
a?a?o?aaeo; oeaio?aeuei? aaiee — a/anii cae?enieoe ?ioa?aaioe?? aeey
?aaoethaaiiy eo?no (?inoeoooe?iiaeueii ?ic??ciythoueny aio?aeiaee
eaniaee ? no?ieiaee eo?ne oa eo?n i?aeaaie?anueei? aaethoii? a??ae?).
Iaa?oioiao?oueny iiaeeea?noue canoinoaaiiy oaoi?/iiai aiae?co.
Aeaoae?cothoueny: 1) /a?oa?iee aiae?c (aeey eiaeiiai i?eeeaaeo
niaoe?aeueiiai o?aiaeo ?iaeoueny ni?iaa ?ice?eoe aeeiai?eo eo?n?a o
a?ao?/iiio cia?aaeaii? ? ia i?aenoaa? oeueiai aoaeoaaoe i?iaiice uiaei
iaeaooiueiai ?icaeoeo eo?n?a); 2) nenoaie ?ooo o?aiae?a, oiaoi
o?ainoi?iaoe?? /aniaiai ?yaeo, yeee aeicaiey? aeyaeyoe o?aiaee,
eiia?iiaai? c i?aaeeii i?eeiyooy ??oaiue; 3) nenoaie cai?ioieo o?aiae?a,
a iniia? yeeo /aniaee ?yae eo?no ia? eiiiiiaio, ui neioniiiae?aii
iioe?th?oueny a /an?.

Aiaeic o?aiaeia canoiniao?oueny o ?ac? i?iaiicoaaiiy oiiainiaeo
iieacieeia. sseiniee oai?aoe/iee aiaeic niinoa?aaeoaaiiai i?ioeano
aeicaiey? ?ice?eoe eiai aioo?ioith eiaieo oa iaoaiici oi?ioaaiiy o
aca?iica’yceo c iioeie ciiiieie. A?i iinoa? ciinoiaiei aacenii
i?iaiicoaaiiy, aeiiiaith?oueny aeineiaeaeaiiyi aiii?e/ieo aeaieo.
Aecia/athoueny oeyoe caaaeaiiy ianoaoeiiia?iiai i?ioeano aei
noaoeiiia?iiai.

Aeeiaii/iith iiaeaeeth ?acoeueooth/iai iieacieea (aaethoiiai eo?no) (W)
ia iiiaio /ano t ca oiia iiaii? i?inoaaeoaaiinoi iiaeia aaaaeaoe
i?ioean:

, (*)

, ui ? aaea noaoeiiia?iei i?ioeanii noiniaii na?aaeiueiai.

, ui a?aeiia?aea? ii?ii i?eaooeo noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy a?ae
iia?aoe?e ia aaethoiiio ?eieo.

Aeine?aeaeothoueny iiaeae? ARIMA (aaoi?aa?an?eia ?ioaa?iaaia ?ooiia
na?aaei?). Iniaeeaa oaaaa i?eae?ey?oueny eiiieii-aaeeoeai?e
i?iaiinoe/i?e iiaeae? oa a?aeiia?aeiei iaoiaeai (Oieoa, Io??a, A?aoia,
Aiena — Aeaeaie?ina), aeey yeeo ?ice?eaa?oueny nooi?noue ia?aiao??a o
?ac? ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy. Aeey ioe?ithaaiiy oa
ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a aeei?enoiaothoueny
aeanoeaino? noaoe?iia?ieo a oe?ieiio ?icoi?ii? i?ioean?a.
Aeine?aeaeo?oueny ?yae ioeiii/ieo ooieoeie oa iiaeaeue aaoi?aa?an?eii?
noaie.

Aiae?c noaoe?iia?ieo (a oe?ieiio ?icoi?ii?) i?ioean?a aea? iiaeeea?noue
iiaoaeoaaoe i?iaiinoe/i? iiaeae?. Aeey aeayeeo oiiainiai-aeiiiii/ieo
i?ioeania iiaeeeaa canoinoaaiiy oai?i? aeno?aiieyoei?. Cae?eniaii
c?noaaeaiiy /ioe?ueio iiaeaeae: iiaeae? “i?eaiiaeueieo cia/aiue”,
“?aa?an?eii? i?yii?”, “?icieoeue”, “eiaa?eoiia”. Ca iiaeaeeth
“i?eaiiaeueieo cia/aiue”, iineiaeiaiinoi aeaieo, ui niinoa?iaathoueny, ?
?aaeicaoei?th noaoeiiia?iiai i?ioeano (a oe?ieiio ?icoi?ii?) c na?aaeiii
cia/aiiyi, ui ? eiinoaioith. Ca iiaeaeeth “?aa?an?eii? i?yii?”,
ooieoei?th na?aaeiueiai cia/aiiy ? i?yia. Ca iayaiinoi aeyaeaieo
oaiaeaioeie ?icaeoeo, a oe?e iiaeae? i?iiiio?oueny aeei?enoiaoaaoe a
aeineiaeaeaiiyo ia?oi ?icieoei caiinoue i?eaiiaeueieo cia/aiue. Oaeee
i?aeo?ae aeei?enoaii oaeiae o iiaeaei “?icieoeue”. Aeey iiaeae?
“eiaa?eoiia” ca oiia aiiioace ioeueoeie?eaoeaieo ca’yceia ie?aieo
eiiiiiaioia /aniaeo ?yaeia iiaeooue cono?i/aoeny eeoa aeiaeaoii
oa?aeoa?enoeee i?iyaia. O oeueiio ?ac? aeey ciaoiaeaeaiiy eiaa?eoiia
oeeo i?iyaia iiaeeeaa canoinoaaiiy niinia?a ?iceeaaeo, ui aacothoueny ia
aaeeoeaiie iiaeaei.

.

.

Iiaoaeiaa aeinoia??ieo i?iaiic?a caeaaeeoue a?ae oaeeo eiiiiiaio:
ia?aaeaa/oaai?noue iaaeieeoiueiai noaiiaeua; aeinoia??i?noue ao?aeii?
?ioi?iaoe??; aeinoia??i?noue i?ii?aeii? ?acoeueooth/i? ?ioi?iaoe??;
iaae?ei?noue ?ioi?iaoe?eieo nenoai; ni?aa?aeiioaiiy i?ae iaaeieeoi?i
na?aaeiaeuai oa noa’?eoii ainiiaea?thaaiiy, yeee aoaeo? i?iaiice;
oiiaiee oa aacoiiaiee cnoae ?acoeueooth/eo cia/aiue. Iioei?caoe?y oeeo
iieaciee?a (ianaiia?aae “ia?aaeaa/oaaiino?”) iie?auo? ye?noue i?iaiic?a
aaethoieo eo?n?a, ca?eueoo? aeiiii?/io aeoeai?noue ia ?eieao.

Aeine?aeaeaiiy iiaeaeae noieoniaai? naia ia ?ie?, yeo a?ae?a?athoue
o/anieee aaethoiiai ?eieo. Aiie canoiniaothoue ??ciiiai?oi? oi?aiaaeuei?
no?aoaa??, ui aacothoueny ia i?eioeeiiai ??cieo ?ioi?iaoe?eieo iieyo. A
oeueiio aniaeo? aeae?eythoueny /a?oenonuee?, ooiaeaiaioae?nonuee? e oae
caai? “ni?iuai?” iiaeae?. Aeiaiaeeoueny, ui i?iaiinoe/ia iiaeaeue noaia
a?eueo iaae?eiith, yeui ci?ie a i/?eoaaieo cia/aiiyo aaethoiiai eo?no
aoaeooue neeaaeaoeny c aeaio eiiiiiaio: i?iaiico /a?oeno?a oa i?iaiico
ooiaeaiaioae?no?a.

O ae?oaiio ?icae?e? “Iiaeae? ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo
eo?n?a a oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??” aeine?aeaeothoueny iayai?
iiaeae? ioe?ithaaiiy ? i?iaiicoaaiiy o?iainiai-aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a,
ye? aaeaioothoueny aei ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a,
i?iiiio?oueny i?ea?iaeueia o?eoacia iiaeaeue aca?iiae?? aaethoieo eo?n?a
? ie?aieo aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a.

O i?ae?icae?e? 2.1 “Iaae?ei?noue iiaeaeae ei?ioeino?ieiaiai
i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??”
aiae?co?oueny iaae?ei?noue aeei?enoaiiy i?iaiinoe/ieo i?aeoiae?a aei
aea/aiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a. ?icaeyaey?oueny oai??y ia?eoaoo eoi?aaeueii?
ni?iiiaeiino? oa a?ioia? ? iaa?ioia? a?aeoeeaiiy a?ae iueiai.
Nenoaiaoecothoueny i?aeoiaee aei aecia/aiiy aaethoiiai eo?no. Ia?aaaaa
iaaea?oueny iiiaoa?iei iiaeaeyi. Oe? iiaeae? aacothoueny ia a?iioacao
?nioaaiiy aeiaaino?ieiai? a?aeiia?aeiino? oai??? ia?eoaoo eoi?aaeueieo
ni?iiiaeiinoae oa a?aeiia?aeiino? iaiie?eoiio i?ioeaioiiio a?a?o?aaeo;
ooieoe?iioaaiiy i?inoi? nenoaie c? noaa?eueiei iiieoii ia a?io?;
iiaeeeaino? /?oeiai ? iiaiiai aecia/aiiy a?ioiai? iane; iiaeeeaino?
?aoe?iiaeueii? iiaoaeiae i/?eoaaiue a ??cieo oi?iao. Iaaiaeyoueny
ii??aiyiiy iiaeaeae ioe?ithaaiiy oa i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a, ?o
iniiaieo oa?aeoa?enoee (c aeaaa?a?/ieie oi?ioeaie). Aea?oueny
aeaoae?ciaaiee aiae?c ?icaeoeo i?iaiinoe/ieo i?aeoiae?a uiaei ioe?iee
aaethoieo eo?n?a a Oe?a?i? a 90-o ?ieao.

O i?ae?icae?e? 2.2 “Iiaeaeue aca?iiae?? aaethoiiai eo?no oa aeayeeo
aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a” i?iiiio?oueny i?ea?iaeueia iiaeaeue ioe?ithaaiiy
? i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a (aeea. ?en. 1), aeine?aeaeothoueny
ianeiaeee aeciaaiiiai oieo aeiiiii/ii? nenoaie, iiioeieiaaiiai
c?inoaiiyi i?iiiceoei? a?ioae. Aiaecia/a?oueny, ui aeciaaiia c?inoaiiy
i?iiiceoei? a?ioae aeienii aeeeeeaia caieueoaiiyi ?iaiia o?yaeiaeo
aeo?ao ca ?aooiie aiini? oeiiieo iaia?ia aai aaciina?aaeiuei? a?ioiai?
aiini?, ui aiaeaeaa?oueny i ia aaethoiiio eo?ni. I?inoaaeo?oueny aieea
aeiiii?/ieo ciiiieo ia aeeiai?eo aaethoiiai eo?no.

A oiiaao aeoeaii? iiiaoa?enonueei? iie?oeee aea?aeaaieo ?inoeooo?a
iaenooo?a?oei a aeeiai?oe? aaethoieo eo?n?a ? oaeaee? ?iioeueni?
no?eaee, ye? ia ? ?acoeueooth/eie iiia?aaeiueiai ?icaeoeo eo?n?a, a
ni?e/eiai? aeciaaiieie aeey ii/aoeiaiai aoaio caoaeaeaiiyie. Aeoiaey/e c
oeueiai, ?oa?aoe?eiee i?ioean, iia’ycaiee naia c aioo??oi?ie aeey aeaii?
e?a?ie ci?iieie, ii/eia?oueny c?inoaiiyi a?ioiai? iane, aeeeeeaiei
ciai?oi?ie, ianiinoa?aaeoaaieie ia iiiaio ?icaeyaeo, oaeoi?aie. Ia
ia?oiio aoai? iiaeae? a?aeaoaa?oueny aeayea iiaeaaaeaiiy
ainiiaea?nueei-aeiiii?/iiai aeeooy o/aniee?a oiaa?iiai ? a?ioiaiai
?eie?a. E?aaeeoii-a?ioiaa aeniain?y a a?eueo o?eaaeiio ia??iae?
ca?eueoo? ??aaiue oe?i ? aaethoiee eo?n, caa??aath/e iino?eieie ?aaeuei?
aaeaine ? oiiae ciai?oiuei? oi?a?ae? (o?ao?e aoai aeane?eioeaii?
iiaeae?). O ei?ioeino?ieiaiio ia??iae?, iaeiae, e?aaeeoii-a?ioiaa
aeniain?y ca?eueoo? ??aaiue aeioneo ? ciaioo? noaaeo i?ioeaioa,
iiieaeoth/e aaethoiee eo?n: aaethoiee eo?n ia?aaeuo? nai? iiaa

??aiiaaaeia cia/aiiy. Aeey ei?aeoe?? iiaeeeaeo a?aeoeeaiue ia aoai?
ia?aoiaeo a?ae c?inoaiiy ??aiy aaaaonoaa aei c?inoaiiy aeo?ao oa
ae?iaieoeoaa, iiaeeeaa aeei?enoaiiy o?neaeueieo iaoai?ci?a. Oea
i?eaiaeeoue aei niaaeaiiy aaethoiiai eo?no, oiaoi a?aeiiniiai iineeaiiy
iiceoe?e a?o/eciyii? aaethoe ca oiiae iaci?iiino? i?aeia?iaeiiai noaio
aeiiii?ee.

Ae?oaee aoai aeine?aeaeaiiy iia’ycaiee ?c noaa?e?caoe??th aaethoiiai
eo?no, ui a?aeia?aaea? caaaeueio oaiaeaioe?th aei noaa?e?caoe??
aeiiii?/ii? noa?e (a?aeiinia niaaeaiiy aac?ia?ooy, c?inoaiiy ae?iaie/eo
iiooaeiinoae ? caooo i?iaeoeoe??). O a?eueoino? aeiaaee?a oeae i?ioean
noi?iaiaeaeo?oueny c?inoaiiyi ca?ia?oii? ieaoe ? ia?aeaeueiei c?inoaiiyi
oe?i ia aioo??oi? aeoe??. Inoaii? a?aeaeaa?oueny ia iiaeaeueoiio
c?inoaii? aaaaonoaa oa a?aeiia?aeiiio c?inoaii? aeo?ao a
i?e?iaeiiii?/iiio nain?.

A iiaeaeueoiio aeine?aeaeo?oueny ?aaeueia c?inoaiiy ?iaeaeno niiaeea/eo
oe?i. C oeueiai ii/eia?oueny o?ao?e aoai ?oa?aoe?eiiai i?ioeano.
Ia?aaeaa/ath/e iaaaoeai? iane?aeee c?inoaiiy ?iaeaeno niiaeea/eo oe?i
aiane?aeie ?ioeyoe?eiiai oeneo, aea?aeaai? ?inoeoooe aeoea?cothoue naith
a?ioiao iie?oeeo.

Ia i?aenoaa? aiae?co iaeii/aniiai ei?eaoaaiiy ??aiy oe?i ? aaethoiiai
eo?no c aieo aea?aeaaieo oa ?eieiaeo ?aaoeyoi??a iiaeia cacia/eoe, ui
oeae i?ioean aieeaa? ia ??aaiue i?eaooeo ? noaaeo i?ioeaioa.
C?inoath/ee ??aaiue oe?i ciaioo? ?aaeuei? a?ioia? caeeoee, ui
i?eaiaeeoue aei ?inoo noaaee i?ioeaioa. Ci?ia ??aiy oe?i ? aaethoiiai
eo?no aieeaathoue oaeiae ia oiiae ciai?oiuei? oi?a?ae?, a ioaea, ? ia
iiieo ia a?o/eciyi? oiaa?e. Ii?aeiaiiy ae?? oeeo oaeoi??a a iaaaoeaiiio
aniaeo? i?ecaiaeeoue aei iiiaioaeueiiai aeaooo, ui iinoa? a nooo?aiio
c?inoaii? aaethoiiai eo?no, i?e/iio a?eueo cia/iiio, i?ae oei/aniaa
niaaeaiiy ia ii/aoeo ae?oaiai aoaio. Ii?yae c oeei a?aeaoaa?oueny
niaaeaiiy aaaaonoaa, aeo?ao ? ?iaanoeoe?e. Inoaii? ? ia eeoa iane?aeeii
aeiiii?/iiai aeaooo, a e ?acoeueoaoii ?aoe?iiaeueieo i/?eoaaiue
aeiiii?/ieo noa’?eo?a uiaei iaeaooi?o noai?a ?eieo. Aea?aeaaa ye
?aaoeyoi? iaiaaa?oueny canoinoaaoe o?neaeueia oa iiiaoa?ia noeioethaaiiy
o?iainiai-aeiiii?/ii? noa?e. Oae? ae?? i?eaiaeyoue ?icaeyaeoaaio nenoaio
aei ii/aoeiaiai aoaio, aea ia iiaiio ??ai? ?icaeoeo aeiiii?ee a oe?eiio.
Iaeaea an? cacia/ai? ca’ycee ? aca?iieie ? iiaeooue iienoaaoenue
iaoaiaoe/ieie ??aiyiiyie aeey oiiae iano?eei? ??a-iiaaae, a oaeiae noaio
??aiiaaae, aei yeiai ia? i?yioaaoe aeiiii?/ia nenoaia.

I?e iiiaoa?ieo i?aeoiaeao aei ei?aeoe?? a?aeoeeaiue a?ae ??aiiaaaeiiai
noaio ?oa?aoe?eiee i?ioean cia?aaeo?oueny ia i?aenoaa? i?aeoiae?a
Aei?iaooa —O?aieaey ? oaeeo ia?aaeoiia (an? aaee/eie cai?iiiiiaai? a
eiaa?eoi?/i?e oi?i?):

y*, r*, ?* = const,
(1)

aea ?iicaii? iaoe?iiaeuei? aeioiaee (y*), ?aaeueia i?ioeaioia noaaea
(r*) oa ??aaiue oe?i (?*) ia i?aeaeathoueny aieeao aioo??oiuei? iie?oeee
? aa?ooueny aeciaaieie (c??i/eith * iicia/aii ?iicaii? ia?aiao?e);

2) ?nio? iiaia i?aeia?iaeia ?ooii?noue eai?oae?a; a?o/eciyi? e ?iicaii?
oe?ii? iaia?e — aaniethoii aca?iicai?uoaai?. I?e oeueiio i?ioeaioia
??cieoey (rt – rt*) ia iiiaio /ano t a?aeiia?aea? ciaoe?iaiith aaethoe:

rt – rt* =Wet+1 – Wt. (2)

aea We a?aeia?aaea? i/?eoaaia cia/aiiy aaethoiiai eo?no;

3) ei?ioeino?ieia? i/?eoaaiiy aaethoiiai eo?no iiaeooue aooe aecia/ai?
oae:

Wet+1 = aW + (1 – a) Wt + (I – I*), 0 < a < 1, (3) aea W — ??aiiaaaeiee aaethoiee eo?n, I — i/?eoaaiee i?ioeaio ?ioeyoe??, a — ia?aiao? ?aaoethaaiiy i?ioeano; 4) aeiaaino?ieiai ?nio? ia?eoao eoi?aaeueieo ni?iiiaeiinoae: Wt = Wet+1 = W, oiaoi I = I*. (4) Wt = W – ((I – r) – (I* – r*)) a–1. (5) Aaethoiee eo?n ei?ioeino?ieiai eieeaa?oueny iaaeiei aeiaaino?ieiaiai cia/aiiy. I?e canoinoaaii? iiiaoa?ieo i?aeoiae?a iiaea ?icaeyaeaoeny oaeiae oai??y i?ioeaioiiai ia?eoaoo oa caaeuaiiy aaethoiiai eo?no. Oiae? (2) i?eeia? aeaeyae rt – rt* = Wet+1 + (RP, (6) aea RP — ?eceeiaa i?ai?y o?eiaiiy ?eceeiaeo oe?iieo iaia??a ca iaiaaeaii? iia?eueiino? eai?oae?a, ( — nooi?iue cai?uoaaiino?. Ca oiia ??aiiaaae aaethoiee eo?n iiaea noaiiaeoe W = (m – m*) – ((y – y*) – (r – r*)/a + (a–1 + ()(I – I*), (7) aea m — a?ioiaa iana, ( iiaeia — aeanoe/i?noue i?iiiceoe?? a?ioae ca iaoe?iiaeueiei aeioiaeii (y), ( — ca i?ioeaioii. I?eeiyaoe ii/aoeiai a (6) ( = 0, c (5) io?eia?ii: Wt = X t – Wet – Wet+1/a, (8) aea Xt = (m – m*) – ((y – y*) – (( + a–1)(I – I*). Oaiiiai ei?ioeino?ieiaiai eieeaaiiy aaethoiiai eo?no a ieie? ??aiiaaaeiiai cia/aiiy a?aeiiee ye “caaeuaiiy oa caieaeaiiy” eo?no. Aeey aecia/aiiy ia?aaeaa/oaaiiai eo?no iaiao?aeia niaoeeo?eaoe?y oiaa?ieo ?eie?a. Iiieo ia a?o/eciyi? oiaa?e (D) iiaeia ?icaeyaeaoe a eiaa?eoi?/i?e oi?i?: lnD = u + ((W – p) + gy – (r, (9) aea u — aaoiiiiiee iiieo ia oiaa?e, d — niinoa?aaeoaaia cia/aiiy (/anoeia iiieoo ia oiaa?e, caeaaeia a?ae oiia oi?a?ae?, ni?aa?aeiioaiiy i?ae oe?iaie aenii?oiaaieo oa ?iii?oiaaieo oiaa??a), p — ??aaiue oe?i, (r — /anoeia oiaa?iiai iiieoo, caeaaeia a?ae i?ioeaioii? noaaee, g — /anoeia oiaa?iiai iiieoo, ui caeaaeeoue a?ae iaoe?iiaeueiiai aeioiaeo. Oe?iia? ci?ie, ae?aaeai? ooieoe??th a?aeiioaiiy oiaa?iiai iiieoo aei oaa?aei? i?iiiceoe??, (S) caaaeai? c? oaeaee?noth i?aeaiiee oiaa?iiai ?eieo: dp/dt = S ln(D/y) = S(u + ((w – p) + gy – lny – (r), S > 1. (10)

Eiee dp/dt > 0 aeey lnD > lny, io?eio?ii iaaeeeoeiaee iiieo.

Naia a ?aaoethaaii? i?iiiceoe?? oa iiieoo ye aeey oiaa?ieo, oae ? aeey
o?iainiaeo ?eie?a ? iinoa? iaeia c ooieoe?e aea?aeaae, yea iiaea aooe
ao?eaia a aeeooy ca aeiiiiiaith iiiaoa?ieo i?aeoiae?a o aecia/aii?
aaethoieo eo?n?a.

?icaeyioo? a iiaeae? ca’ycee ?ice?eaathoueny ca ?aa?aneaiei iaoaiiciii c
i?aee??ieaiiyi aaoi?aa?an??th. Ii?ia iii?iaeueiiai i?eaooeo o/aniee?a
aaethoiiai ?eieo (() a?ae aaciina?aaei?o iia?aoe?e eoi?ae? oa i?iaeaaeo
ia? aecia/aoeny naia /a?ac oe?ie aaethoe aeeaaeaiiy eai?oae?a, oiaoi
/a?ac aaethoi? eo?ne:

(t = (Wt – Wt–1)/Wt–1, (11)

ye? aeey ei?ioeino?ieiaiai ia??iaeo aiae?cothoueny ca aeiiiiiaith
eiaa?eoi?/ieo cia/aiue lg(Wt) – lg(Wt–1).

Oiae? i/?eoaaia cia/aiiy iii?iaeueiiai i?eaooeo aecia/a?oueny oi?ioeith

(et+1 = (Wet+1 – Wt + (Oet+1 + zet+1)/Wt, (12)

aea ( ? aeiaeaoiith eiinoaioith, ui ioe?ith? aieea iiina?aaeeiaaii?
?ioi?iaoe?? ? iiaea ia a?aeiineoeny aaciina?aaeiuei aei aaethoieo
eo?n?a, aea a?aeaeaa?oueny ia i?eaooeao (?ioi?iaoe?y i?i iaeaooi?
oaiaee, aee?aeoeai? ??oaiiy, oiui); Ot — oaeoi? (aai oaeoi?e),
ia?aaeaa/oaai? oa aeinooii? aeey aiae?oe/ieo a?aeae?e?a noa’?eo?a
ainiiaea?thaaiiy — oi?a?aoe?a aaethoith, ye? iiaeooue aieeaaoe ia
i?eaooee, a iiaeooue aooe ? ianooo?aeie aeey aeine?aeaeaiiy; zt — noia
ianiinoa?aaeoaaieo, aea iioaioe?eii ia?aaeaa/oaaieo oaeoi??a (?iioeuen?a
aai aeiaaeeiaeo oie?a ia aaethoiiio ?eieo) — aieea ai?n?? IAO oa ?io?
i/?eoaaiiy noa’?eo?a o?iainiaiai ?eieo, ye? i?ecaiaeyoue aei oae caaii?
aaethoii? iai?ee i?e ei?ioeino?ieiaiio ?icaeyae?.

Ca a?iioacith aoaeoeaiino? (et+1 = (, aea ( — iiaeeeaa aa?o?noue
aeei?enoaiiy oiiae?a, ui iiaea aeeth/aoe ? ?eceeiao i?ai?th iiiaae
aa?aioiaaio ii?io i?eaooeo. A oeueiio ?ac?

Wt = (0 (Wt+1 + (Ot+1 + zt+1)e, (13)

aea (0 = 1/(1 + (); ( o i?ino?oiio aeiaaeeo iiaea aooe i?ioeaioiith
noaaeith. Nooo?aei ? aiae?c aeiaaeeiaeo aaee/ei Ot oa zt, ye? ca
a?aenooiino? aoaeoeaiiai ?eieo ? ia?aaeaa/oaaieie.

Aeey ?icaeyaeo aca?iica’yceo aeeiai?ee ocaaaeueiaiiai ?iaeaeno oe?i
iicaa??aeiaiai ?eieo oa aaethoiiai eo?no oe?a?inueei? iaoe?iiaeueii?
aaethoe aei ?in?enueeiai ?oaey aeei?enoiaothoueny ?aa?an?ei?
iaoai?ciaie, ia iniia? yeeo ca iayaiino? cia/aiue ao?aeiiai iieacieea
iiaeeeaa i?iaiicoaaiiy ??aiy aeo?aeiiai iieacieea:

Wt = ( + (Ot + zt . (14)

O i?ae?icae?e? 2.3 “Aiae?c iiaeae? aca?iiae?? aaethoiiai eo?no oa
aeayeeo aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a” aeaoaeueii aiae?cothoueny ia?aiao?e ?
?acoeueoaoe iiaeae?, ?icaeyiooi? o i?ae?icae?e? 2.2. Aeine?aeaeo?oueny
iioei?caoe?eia i?iaeaia aioo??oi?o o??i-?aceaeaio?a, eio?? ia?aaoaathoue
a oiiaao iaaecia/aiiai iiieoo.

O iiceoeaiiio aniaeo? ?acoeueoaoii aeine?aeaeaiiy ? iiaee eaiae aoaeo?a
iiiaoa?ieo eieeaaiue ?aaeueii? aeiiii?ee oa aieeao aoaeo?a Aei?iaooa, ui
iia’ycai? c i/?eoaaiiyie ? aeeiai?eith aaethoieo eo?n?a oa aacothoueny
ia iii?iaeueieo oe?iao.

Oey i?iaeaia iaiaei?iii ia?aoeia?oueny c iiooeaie ??aiiaaae ia ?eieo
aeoea?a ? ia aaethoiiio ?eieo, oa ?c anoaiiaeaiiyi iiaeeeainoae ? oeyo?a
i?aeaeuaiiy ?ioi?iiaaiino? uiaei aeiiii?/iiai aeiae?eey, a oaeiae
neooaoe?? ia ?eieao aeoea?a. Iiaeaeue a?oioo?oueny ia i?e?i- oa
iae?iaeiiii?/iiio aiae?c?. Ia?aae eiaeiei c aeiiii?/ieo noa’?eo?a iinoa?
iiieo, ui aei??aith?:

Dtj = (1 / m)Dt – mB(Rtj – Rt) + atj, j = 1, …, m, (15)

Rtj ), m — e?euee?noue noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy, ui ?icaeyaeathoueny;
atj — noioanoe/iee oie aeey j-? o??ie a iiiaio /ano t; B — aeayeee
oaeoi? aai iao?eoey oaeoi??a.

A?aeiinieie oe?iaie aenooiathoue oe?ie o??i ia ?oith i?iaeoeoe?th o
a?o/eciyi?e aaetho?, ?icae?eai? ia ??aaiue oe?i, yeee ? ooieoe??th a?ae
oe?i o a?o/eciyi?e aaetho? ia a?o/eciyi? oiaa?e oa oiaa?e ?iicaiiiai
ae?iaieoeoaa. Na?oiaee iiieo ? noiith aioo??oiueiai iiieoo ((0 – (1 Rt
+ (2Xt) oa ?iicaiiiai iiieoo ((0* – (1* Rt), aea (0, (1, (2 —
aeiaeaoeia? ia?aiao?e, a Xt — ??aaiue ?aaeueieo aeo?ao aioo??oi?o
?aceaeaio?a. Ia?aaeaa/a?oueny, ui o??ie ciathoue nai? oi/ee (iiceoe??)
uiaei iiieoo, aea (etj = 0.

?aaeuei? aeo?aoe i?yii caeaaeaoue a?ae ?aaeueieo aeioiae?a (Rt Yt), c
o??th iniaeea?noth, ui Xt = K1 Rt + K2 Yt + Ut, aea K1, K2 > 0, Ut — ooi
a?aeoeeaiue aa?aaiaaieo aeo?ao; Yt — ianya aeioneo i?iaeoeoe??.

Eiaeia j-oa o??ia aeionea? i?iaeoeoe?th ianyaii Ytj ? ia? caiane
i?iaeoeoe?? ianyaii Ntj. Aeeiai?ea caian?a iieno?oueny ye Ytj = Dtj +
Ntj – – Nt–1j. Ia?aae noa’?eoaie ainiiaea?thaaiiy iinoa? i?iaeaia
iaenei?caoe?? iaoaiaoe/iiai niiae?aaiiy:

[Dt+ijRt+ij – ((0 + Kt+1 + (1Yt+1)Yt+1j – ((2)(Yt+ij) – (1Nt+i–1 –

– ((2)(Nt+i–1j)](i, j =1, …, m,
(16)

aea (i — aeeneiioia noaaea, eiinoaioia i?ae ioeai oa iane?i/aii?noth;

Etj — iaoaiaoe/ia niiae?aaiiy (oiiaia uiaei ?ioi?iaoe??, aeinooiii? aeey
aeaii? o??ie ia ii/aoeo ia??iaeo); (0, (1, (2 oa (1, (2 — aeaye?
ai??i?ii aecia/ai? ia?aiao?e.

Iaaiaeyoueny i?iaiinoe/i? ?ic?aooiee ?c canoinoaaiiyi iiaeae? aca?iiae??
aaethoiiai eo?no c ie?aieie aeiiii?/ieie iieacieeaie, a oaeiae iiaeae?
iioi/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy. Nie?ath/enue ia aiae?c iiaeaeae i?iaiicoaaiiy
aaethoieo eo?n?a aeaoaeueii ?ice?eaa?oueny neooaoe?y ia o?iainiaeo ?
aaethoieo ?eieao Oe?a?ie ? ?in?enueei? Oaaea?aoe?? a 90-o

?ieao.

O o?aoueiio ?icae?e? “Aeei?enoaiiy iiaeae? aca?iiae?? eo?no a?o/eciyii?
aaethoe oa ie?aieo aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a” iaaiaeyoueny i?eeeaaee
canoinoaaiiy iiaeae? ?aaoethth/eie ?inoeoooaie ? noa’?eoaie aeiiii?/iiai
ainiiaea?thaaiiy, ?o ye?niee ? e?euee?niee aiae?c.

O i?ae?icae?e? 3.1 “Aeeiai?ea ii??aiyeueieo oa?aeoa?enoee aaethoieo
eo?n?a o?ainoi?iaoe?eieo aeiiii?e” aeine?aeaeo?oueny aeeiai?ea aaethoieo
eo?n?a aeiiii?e, ui ciaoiaeyoueny a i?ioean? o?ainoi?iaoe?? ?
ia?aaoaathoue i?ae aieeaii ?icaeoeo no?oeoo?iiai ?aoi?ioaaiiy.
Aiae?cothoueny nenoaiiee ca’ycie i?ae a?ioiai-e?aaeeoiith iie?oeeith,
eio?o i?iaiaeeoue IAO, iae?iaeiiii?/iith neooaoe??th a Oe?a?i? ?
aeeiai?eith i?iieneiaiai ae?iaieoeoaa, a oaeiae caeaaeiino? i?ae ??aiai
noaaee i?ioeaioa ca e?aaeeo ? ?ioaineai?noth ae?iaie/eo ?iaanoeoe?e,
i?iiiceoe??th a?ioae ? aeeiai?eith iiieoo oa oaiiii ?ioeyoe??.
?icaeyaea?oueny aeeiai?ea iai?iiiai eo?no ? aeie? ?iii?oieo oiaa??a o
oiaa?ieo ?ano?nao oi?a?ae?, ii??aiyeueia aeeiai?ea oe?i a iniiaieo
aaeocyo iaoa??aeueiiai ae?iaieoeoaa Oe?a?ie ? ?in?enueei? Oaaea?aoe??.

O i?ae?icae?e? 3.2 “Aeei?enoaiiy iiaeaeae ei?ioeino?ieiaiai
i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a i?aeoeoe? ?iaioe noa’?eo?a aeiiii?/iiai
ainiiaea?thaaiiy” aiae?co?oueny iiaaae?iea noa’?eo?a aeiiii?/iiai
ainiiaea?thaaiiy a aniaeo? ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoiiai
eo?no.

Nie?ath/enue ia iiaeaeue aca?iiae?? aaethoiiai eo?no oa aeiiii?/ieo
iieaciee?a, ?icaeyiooo a ?icae?e? 2.2, aeine?aeaeo?oueny eo?n
oe?a?inueei? a?eai? aei aia?eeainueeiai aeiea?a a ei?ioeioa?i?iiaiio
aniaeo? (?ioa?aae ?icaeyaeo — i?nyoeue) ii/eiath/e c aeiaoiy 1997 ?. aei
aa?aciy 1998 ?. (aeea. oaae. 1). A oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??
oeyoii aiae?co oa aeai?o aeae?eueeio c /eneaiieo aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a
i?eoiaeeii aei aeniiaeo, ui aeey iiaoaeiae ?aa?an?eieo ??aiyiue
iaea?eueo i?eaeaoi? iieacieee ianyao a?ioiai? iane ye ?iioeueneaiiai
?oo?y (aeea. ?en. 2) oa ??aiy i?ioeaioieo noaaie ca e?aaeeoe. Oea
a?aeiia?aea? aoi?eiiei ci?iai a aeiiii?/i?e nenoai? (aeea. ?en. 3).
I?iaiici? cia/aiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a ca?aathoueny c oaeoe/ieie aeaieie ca
i?eiouaiiy e?i?eii-aaeeoeaieo o?aiae?a. Canoinoaaiiy /aniaeo ?yae?a aeey
ciaoiaeaeaiiy i?iaiic ieo cia/aiue aaethoieo eo?n?a ca iaoiaeaie
aeniiiaioe?eii caeaaeaeaiiai na?aaeiueiai (aeeth/ath/e /anoeia?
iaeiie/oaaeuei? iioeaee Aiena — Aeaeaie?ina c ia?aiao?aie ( = 0,8; ( =
0,2 aeey 5 niinoa?aaeaiue) ? oae? ?acoeueoaoe. I?iaiicia cia/aiiy ia
aa?acaiue 1998 ?. aei??aith? 2,029599905, oaeoe/ia cia/aiiy — 2,03. I?e
oeueiio ?aaeueia cia/aiiy a?aeiia?aea? ?ioa?aaeo iaae?eiino? [1,858;
2,201]. Oi/i?noue i?iaiico a?aeiia?aea? aeiiaai noa’?eo?a
ainiiaea?thaaiiy: noia eaaae?ao?a iiieeie aei??aith? 0,00845; na?aaei?e
eaaae?ao iiieeie — 0,00169; na?aaeiy iiieeea — 0,02684; na?aaeiy
aaniethoia i?ioeaioia iiieeea — 1,354%, ui a?aeiia?aea? na?aaei?e
i?ioeaioi?e iiieeoe?.

Iaeiie/aiiy a aeiiii?oe? iaa?aeiia?aeiinoae iniiaieo iieaciee?a, a
oaeiae ci?ie, ui a?aeiia?aeathoue o?aoueiio aoaio iiaeae?, ?icaeyiooi? a
?icae?e? 2.2, o eeii? 1998 ?. i?ecaaee aei ??ceiai c?inoaiiy eo?no
oe?a?inueei? a?eai?. Neooaoe?y iiaea aooe i?iaiae?ciaaia aeeeth/ii
canoinoaaiiyi iioi/ieo /aniaeo ?yae?a, ine?eueee ?aa?an?ei? ca’ycee ia
anoeaathoue aaeaiooaaoeny ia ei?ioeiio i?ii?aeeo /ano ? /anoi aeey
noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy nai?/ani? ?aaeuei? aeai? i?i ?icaeoie
iae?iaeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a iaaeinyaei?. Ia i?aenoaa? 15 niinoa?aaeaiue
c ?ioa?aaeii iaeei aeaiue iiaeeeai c?iaeoe i?iaiic ia inoaii?e aeaiue
i?nyoey, ui iniaeeai aaaeeeai aeey caaaeaieo noaoenoee oa iae?eo
i?e?iaeiiii?/ieo noa’?eo?a.

I?noea aeey oaaeeoe? 1 (aeea. oaee page17.doc) ?enoiie 2. ?aa?an?eiee
aiae?c aieeao ci?i a a?ioia?e ian? I3 ia aaethoiee eo?n UAH/USD
(aeiaoaiue 1997 — aa?acaiue 1998 ??.)

?aa?an?eia noaoenoeea

R 0,894286518

R-eaaae?ao 0,799748376

Ii?iiaaiee R-eaaae?ao 0,74968547

Noaiaea?oia iioeaea 0,033463145

Niinoa?aaeaiiy 6

Niinoa?aaeaiiy Ia?aaeaa/oaaiee eo?n Caeeoee

1 1,94207508 –0,014207508

2 1,878460841 0,011539159

3 1,947116311 –0,048116311

4 1,910347843 0,019652157

5 1,982546313 0,037453687

6 2,036321183 0,006321183

ANOVA

df SS MS F Cia/ei?noue F

?aa?an?y 1 0,017888372 0,017888372 15,97486924 0,016172318

Caeeoie 4 0,004479128 0,001119782

Noia?ii 5 0,0223675

Eiao?oe??ioe Noaiaea?oia iioeaea t-noaoenoeea ?-cia/aiiy Ieaei? 95%
Aa?oi? 95%

Y-ia?aoei (eo?no)

0,959721523

0,2460172

3,901034254

0,01752613

1,276666858

1,642776187

Ci?iia noaaee i?ioeaioa

7,87333A-05

1,96988A-05

3,99685742

0,016172318

2,40406A-05

0,000133426

?enoiie 3. ?aa?an?eiee aiae?c aieeao ci?i a i?ioeaioieo noaaeao ia
aaethoiee eo?n UAH/USD (aeiaoaiue 1997 — aa?acaiue 1998 ??.)

?aa?an?eia noaoenoeea

R 0,983400622

R-eaaae?ao 0,967076783

Ii?iiaaiee R-eaaae?ao 0,958845979

Noaiaea?oia iioeaea 0,013568438

Niinoa?aaeaiiy 6

Niinoa?aaeaiiy Ia?aaeaa/oaaiee eo?n Caeeoee

1 1,86323555 0,01676445

2 1,904830642 –0,014830642

3 1,912492896 –0,013492896

4 1,924533581 0,005466419

5 2,015386019 0,004613981

6 2,028521312 0,001478688

ANOVA

df SS MS F Cia/ei?noue F

?aa?an?y 1 0,02163109 0,02163109 117,4948097 0,000411022

Caeeoie 4 0,00073641 0,000184103

Noia?ii 5 0,0223675

Eiao?oe??ioe Noaiaea?oia iioeaea t-noaoenoeea ?-cia/aiiy Ieaei? 95%
Aa?oi? 95%

Y-ia?aoei (eo?no)

1,445095411

0,046129673

31,32680794

6,18788A-06

1,31701864

1,573172181

Ci?iia noaaee i?ioeaioa

0,010946077

0,001009832

10,839502228

0,00041022

0,008142328

0,013749826

I?iaiic eo?no a?eai? aei aeiea?a ?c caeo/aiiyi iaoiae?a Aiena
—Aeaeaie?ina (c ia?aiao?aie ( = 0,2, ( = 0,2) ia 31.07.1998 ?.
aei??aith? 2,13504, oaeoe/ia cia/aiiy — 2,1349. ?aaeueia cia/aiiy
a?aeiia?aea? ?ioa?aaeo iaae?eiino? [2,11327; 2,156809]. Iacaaaeath/e ia
niaoeeo?eo ?icaeyaeoaaiiai ?yaeo (aiia iieyaa? a oiio, ui aeaa nooo?a?
?iioeuene ? ?oo?eiith neeith eeoa ia inoaiiueiio aoai? aeeiai?ee)
oi/i?noue i?iaiico a?aei?iia: na?aaeiy iiieeea noaiiaeoue 0,0015;
na?aaeiy aaniethoia i?ioeaioia iiieeea — 0,074%.

I?aeoiaee, cai?iiiiiaai? a iiaeae? aca?iiae?? aaethoiiai eo?no ?
aeayeeo aeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a, ?icaeoie oe??? iiaeae? aeey oiia
iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe?? oa iioi/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy a ii?aeiaii? c
aenia?oieie oa eiia?iiaaieie iaoiaeaie i?iaiicoaaiiy aeathoue ciiao
o/anieeai o?iainiaiai ? ianaiia?aae aaethoiiai ?eie?a c aeinoaoiueith
i??ith a??ia?aeiino? i?iaiicoaaoe oae? ci?ie, ye ci?ie a aeioiaeiino?
aeoe?e, iiaeeea?noue ianooiii? ai?n?? c ai?eciioii i?iaiico a?ae iaeiiai
aei o?ueio i?nyoe?a; ci?ie a aeioiaeiino? iia?aoe?e c iae?aaoe?yie
aea?aeaaii? iiceee; ci?ie a ?iaanoeoe?eieo iioieao ye c aieo
?aceaeaio?a, oae ? c aieo ia?aceaeaio?a; ci?ie a iai?yieao o?eiaiiy
aaoa??a ?aca?a?a o/aniee?a ?eieo; ci?ie a ni?aa?aeiioaii? i?eaooe?a oa
caeoe?a aeey i?iieneiaiai aaeaino ca ?aooiie ci?i o eo?niaeo ??cieoeyo
(a iniiaiiio — ca aeaiiceoaie oa caai?aiaai?noth aeaa?oi??a, i?e
canoinoaaii? ?ic?aooie?a a ?iicaii?e aaetho?); ci?ie a iie?oeoe?
oaaeaeoaaiiy c iioe?iiaie a?aeiinii aaethoiiai eo?no oa ?i.

AENIIAEE

Aeeiai?ea iniiaieo iae?iaeiiii?/ieo iieaciee?a ?icaeyaea?oueny a
aeine?aeaeaii? ye ?aaeueiee noai aeiiii?/iiai ?icaeoeo aea?aeaae ?
aecia/a?oueny oaeeie ia?aiao?aie: ??aaiue aeeiiaiiy athaeaeaoieo
ciaia’ycaiue; aaee/eia athaeaeaoiiai aeao?oeeoo ? oaeaee?noue c?inoaiiy
aea?aeaaiiai ai?ao; ??aaiue iiiaoa?ecaoe?? athaeaeaoiiai aeao?oeeoo;
aaee/eia aaethoieo ?aca?a?a, ui aeei?enoiaothoueny aeey o?iainoaaiiy
athaeaeaoiiai aeao?oeeoo; aeeiai?ea aaeiaiai aioo??oiueiai i?iaeoeoo;
??aaiue aac?ia?ooy; ??aaiue cae?aiiy athaeaeaoieo aeioiae?a a oe?eiio ?
iiaeaoe?a cie?aia.

?acoeueoaoe aiae?co ? i?aeoeea iieacothoue, ui o ei?ioeino?ieia?e
/ania?e ia?niaeoea? aaethoi? eo?ne aeoaea /ooeea? aei aoaeue-yei? iiai?
?ioi?iaoe??, yea iiaea iiieceoe i/?eoaai? a iaeaooiueiio ??ai? aaethoieo
eo?n?a. I?iaiinoe/i? iiaeae? ia?aaeaa/athoue ?icaeoie no/anii? ci?oaii?
aaethoii? nenoaie.

Iaiao?aei?noue iiaoaeiae iaoiae?a eiio?ieth ca aaee/eiith aaethoiiai
eo?no noa? iniaeeai aino?ith nueiaiaei?, eiee iaoe?iiaeueia aaethoa —
a?eaiy iaaea? a oe?i?, a o?yae ia ia? aeinoaoiuei ?aca?a?a, uia i?iaanoe
?ioa?aaioe?th. Aeei?enoaiiy oa?eo?a, ?iii?oieo aaetho oa ?ioeo
i?ioaeoe?ii?nonueeeo iaoiae?a iaiaaeaiiy ?iii?oo ye iaeiiai c aa??aio?a
ae?e iieaco?, ui o ?ac? oni?oo ?o canoinoaaiiy oea aeaui iaiaaeeoue
ae?th oaeoi??a, eio?? ci?oeiththoue iaoe?iiaeueio aaethoo. Aea i?e
oeueiio iiaeooue c?inoe oe?ie ia ?iii?oi? oiaa?e, ui i?aeaeueoue ??aaiue
?ioeyoe?? a Oe?a?i?. ?ioeyoe?y, a naith /a?ao, iiaea noai?eoe i/?eoaaiiy
iiaeaeueoiai cieaeaiiy eo?no iaoe?iiaeueii? aaethoe ? aeeeeeaoe oei
naiei ??ceee a?aeo?e eai?oaeo, yeee ciaoe?ieoue aoaeue-ye?
iaaeoiaeaeaiiy ia ?aooiee a?ae ciai?oiueioi?aiaaeueieo iia?aoe?e.

Cai?iiiiiaaia iiaeaeue aeicaiey? ia?aaeaa/oaaoe aaethoiee eo?n ia iniia?
?ioeyoe??, aei??thaaii? ?iaeaenii niiaeea/eo oe?i, iiiaoa?ieo aoaeo?a,
i?ioeaioieo noaaie oa ??aiy aac?ia?ooy. Aea aiia ia aea? iiaeeeaino?
iiaoaeoaaoe iioi/iee i?iaiic ca iaaaeeeith e?euee?noth aeaieo. Oiio
iaee?auei ae??oaiiyi oe??? i?iaeaie ? ii?aeiaiiy iiaeae? c cao?eieaie oa
aiae?cii /aniaeo ?yae?a. O oeueiio ?ac? ia?aaeaa/aiiy cia/aiue
aaethoiiai eo?no noathoue a?eueo ?aae?noe/ieie ? iiaeooue aooe
aeei?enoai? iniaaie, ye? i?eeiathoue ??oaiiy uiaei no?aoaa?/ieo iai?yi?a
?ici?uaiiy eai?oae?a oa iioi/iiai ieaioaaiiy a iaaeao iaaii? aeiiii?/ii?
i?aenenoaie.

Ia iniia? aeine?aeaeaiiy a?aeiia?aeieo naaiaio?a o?iainiai-e?aaeeoii?
nenoaie iiaoaeiaaia iiaeaeue, ui aeicaiey? i?iaiicoaaoe ci?ie o
aaethoiiio eo?n?. Oey iiaeaeue iiaea aooe aeei?enoaia aeey ia?aaeaa/aiiy
aaethoiiai eo?no ei?ioeino?ieiaiai oa iioi/iiai i?iaiicoaaiiy.

Aaoi?aa?an?ei? i/?eoaaiiy a?eueo aeioe?euei? aeey ?icaeyaeo eieeaaiue
aaethoiiai eo?no ia aaethoiiio ?eieo Oe?a?ie, aea iiaoaeiaa i/?eoaaiue
aeey ci?iieo ?ice?eaa?oueny /a?ac ?aae?caoe?th oeeo ci?iieo o
ieioeiio. I?aeoaa?aeaeaii, ui ia i?aeoeoe? aeey aeine?aeaeaiiy aaethoieo
eo?n?a e?aua canoiniaoaaoe ?aa?an?ei? iaoai?cie a eiiieaenieo
iaoiaeeeao, ye? i?noyoue aiae?c caeaaeaeaiiai na?aaeiueiai ?
aaoi?aa?an??, i?aaeea o?eueo??a, iae?iii? ia?aae?, aenia?oi? ioe?iee
oiui. Aeey eiie?aoiiai ?icaeyaeo i?ioean?a, ui a?aeaoaathoueny ia
aaethoiiio ?eieo Oe?a?ie, aeioe?eueii canoiniaoaaoe eiia?iaoe??
i?aeoiae?a aei aecia/aiiy i?iaiic?a, ye iai?eeeaae
aaeaioeaii-?aa?an?ei?. Aea aaoi?aa?aneai? i?aeoiaee /a?ac ?o aeineoue
ni?iuaio no?oeoo?o iathoue aenooiaoe ?iai/eie a?iioacaie a aii??e/ieo
aeine?aeaeaiiyo a?aeiia?aeieo a?aeae?e?a noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy
(aaie?a, ?iaanoeoe?eieo eiiiai?e, ?ioeo o?iainiaeo onoaiia oiui).

Aeei?enoaiiy eiiieaenieo iaoiaeee ei?ioeioa?i?iiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy, ye?
aeeth/athoue aaeaioeai? e?euee?ni? ioe?iee, a aiae?c? o?iainiaeo
iieaciee?a, iiae?aieo iai?iiiio eo?no, aeicaiey? ia i?e?i??ai?
?aoe?iiaeueii i?aeoiaeeoe aei aeai?o no?aoaa?? ?icaeoeo ? iaea?aeoaaoe
oaeei /eiii ca?eueoaiiy i?eaooe?a; ia iae?i??ai? oea aea? iiaeeea?noue
ei?eaoaaoe a?ioiao iie?oeeo a oiiaao ??ceeo ci?i. Aiae?c caeiiii??iinoae
aenii?oii-?iii?oiiai iai?io aeicaiey? c?iaeoe aeniiaie, ui oeaio?aeueio
?ieue o iai?iieo i?ioeanao a aeiiii?oe? a oe?eiio a?ae?a?a? iaoai?ci
oi?ioaaiiy eo?no iaoe?iiaeueii? a?ioiai? iaeeieoe?. ?ioi?iaoe?th i?i
aeeiai?eo eo?n?a aaetho iiaeia oni?oii aeei?enoiaoaaoe aeey iiaoaeiae
ei?ioeino?ieiaeo i?iaiic?a iaa?oue ca a?aenooiino? aeiaeaoeiaeo ciaiue
i?i e?euee?nia cia/aiiy oaeoi??a, ui aieeaathoue ia aaethoiee eo?n.

Ioae?eaoe??. Iniiai? oai?aoe/i? iieiaeaiiy ? aeniiaee aeena?oaoe??
ciaeoee nai? a?aeia?aaeaiiy o 6 ioae?eaoe?yo aaoi?a (c ieo 4
iaeiiin?aieo): /ioe?ueio noaooyo o iaoeiai-oai?aoe/ieo /aniienao oa o
ca??ieeao iaoeiaeo i?aoeue ? aeaio ?icae?eao o iaa/aeueieo iin?aieeao.

I?iaeaie ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy o?iainiaeo iieaciee?a a oiiaao
iaaeinoaoiuei? noaoenoeee // Aaie?anueea ni?aaa. — 1995. — ?4. — N.
45—50 (o ni?aaaoi?noa? c I. Ea?aaiaeiaith).

Iiaeaethaaiiy aca?iiae?? aaethoieo eo?n?a oa ie?aieo aeiiii?/ieo
iieaciee?a // Aaie?anueea ni?aaa. —1996. — ?2. — N. 30—35.

Ioe?ithaaiiy oa i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a ca ?aa?aneaieie
iaoai?ciaie // Aaie?anueea ni?aaa. — 1996. — ?4. — N. 40—44 (o
ni?aaaoi?noa? c I. Ea?aaiaeiaith).

Aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ia iiaeaethaaiiy iiiiiie?? a ?eieia?e nenoai?:
Iaoiaee/ia ?ic?iaea. — E.: ?IEIE I?i?noa?noaa eoeueoo?e ? ienoaoeoa
Oe?a?ie, 1996. — 48 n.

Iiaeaethaaiiy iiiiiie?? a oiiaao ?eieo // Ea?aaiaeiaa I.I., *a?aaiueia
Ae.I. I?e?iaeiiii?ea: Iaa/aeueiee iin?aiee / I?ae caa. ?aae. i?io. Ae.I.
*a?aaiueiaa. — E.: *aoaa?oa oaeey, 1997. — N. 105—139.

Aiae?c “iaai??a” oa iiiiiie?noe/i? noaie ia aaethoieo ?eieao //
Ea?aaiaeiaa I.I., *a?aaiueia Ae.I. I?e?iaeiiii?ea: Iaa/aeueiee iin?aiee
/ I?ae caa. ?aae. i?io. Ae.I. *a?aaiueiaa. — E.: *aoaa?oa oaeey, 1997.
N. 192—198.

Aiioaoe?y

Neia?ue A.I. Iiaeae? ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a
oiiaao iaaeinoaoiuei? ?ioi?iaoe??. — ?oeiien.

Aeena?oaoe?y ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa aeiiii?/ieo iaoe
ca niaoe?aeuei?noth 08.03.02 — Aeiiii?ei-iaoaiaoe/ia iiaeaethaaiiy. —
Iaoe?iiaeueiee oi?aa?neoao ?iai? Oa?ana Oaa/aiea, Ee?a, 1998.

O aeena?oaoe?? ?icaeyaeathoueny iniiai? iai?yie i?iaiinoe/ieo i?aeoiae?a
aei iiaeaethaaiiy o?iainiai? noa?e. Ia iniia? aeine?aeaeaiiy
a?aeiia?aeieo naaiaio?a o?iainiai-e?aaeeoii? nenoaie iiaoaeiaaia
iiaeaeue, ui aeicaiey? i?iaiicoaaoe ci?ie aaethoiiai eo?no.
?ice?eaa?oueny ae??oaeueia ?ieue ?aa?an?eieo iaoai?ci?a i/?eoaaiiy oa
i?iaiicoaaiiy aaethoieo eo?n?a a oiiaao iaia?aaeaa/oaaii? aeeiai?ee
aaethoiiai ?eieo. Aeathoueny ?aeiiaiaeaoe?? uiaei i?iaiinoe/ii?
i???ioaoe?? noa’?eo?a ainiiaea?thaaiiy.

Eeth/ia? neiaa: i?iaeaie ei?ioeino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy, aaeaioeai?
iaoiaee, ?aa?an?ei? iaoai?cie, aeeiai?/ia aca?iiae?y aaethoieo eo?n?a.

Aiiioaoeey

Neia?ue A.A. Iiaeaee e?aoein?i/iiai i?iaiice?iaaiey aaethoiuo eo?nia a
oneiaeyo iaaeinoaoi/iie eioi?iaoeee. — ?oeiienue.

Aeenna?oaoeey ia nieneaiea o/aiie noaiaie eaiaeeaeaoa yeiiiie/aneeo iaoe
ii niaoeeaeueiinoe 08.03.02 — Yeiiiieei-iaoaiaoe/aneia iiaeaee?iaaiea. —
Iaoeeiiaeueiue oieaa?neoao eiaie Oa?ana Oaa/aiei, Eeaa, 1998.

A aeenna?oaoeee ?anniao?eaathony iniiaiua iai?aaeaiey i?iaiinoe/aneeo
iiaeoiaeia e iiaeaee?iaaieth oeiainiaie noa?u. Ia iniiaaiee
enneaaeiaaiey niioaaonoaothueo naaiaioia oeiainiai-e?aaeeoiie nenoaiu
iino?iaia iiaeaeue, eioi?ay iicaieyao i?iaiice?iaaoue eciaiaiey
aaethoiiai eo?na. ?ane?uaaaony ?aoathuay ?ieue ?aa?anneiiiuo iaoaieciia
ioeaieaaiey e i?iaiice?iaaiey aaethoiuo eo?nia a oneiaeyo
iai?aaeneacoaiie aeeiaieee aaethoiiai ?uiea. Aeathony ?aeiiaiaeaoeee
ian/ao i?iaiinoe/aneie i?eaioaoeee noauaeoia oicyenoaiaaiey.

Eeth/aaua neiaa: i?iaeaiu e?aoein?i/iiai i?iaiice?iaaiey, aaeaioeaiua
iaoiaeu, ?aa?anneiiiua iaoaieciu, aeeiaie/aneia acaeiiaeaenoaea
aaethoiuo eo?nia.

Precis

Sknar Andriy. Models of Short-Term Forecasting of Exchange Rates under
Conditions of Insufficient Information.

Thesis for a degree of Candidate of Economical Sciences on the subject
of modeling economical-mathematics 08.03.02. — National Taras Shevchenko
University of Kiev, 1998.

The main trends of prognostic approaches to modeling financial sphere
are under consideration in the Thesis. Basing on the research of the
appropriate financial-credit system’s segments, the author builds the
model allowing to forecast the changes in exchange rate. The author show
the crucial role of regressive mechanisms of estimations and forecasting
exchange rates under the conditions of unforeseen dynamics in exchange
market. Recommendations are given as to prognostic orientation of the
subjects of the currency market.

Key words: problems of short-term forecasting, the adaptive methods, the
regression mechanisms, the dynamic interaction of exchange rates.

Eino?ia I.?., Ae?en??a A.A., Aaneeee I.Ae. O?iainiaa i?iaiicoaaiiy:
iaoiaee oa iiaeae?: Iaa/aeueiee iin?aiee. — E.: Oiaa?enoai “Ciaiiy”,
EII, 1997. — 183 n.

Iaeaiai Y. Noaoenoe/aneea iaoiaeu yeiiiiao?ee. — I.: Noaoenoeea, 1975;
Aui.??. — 1976. — 325 n.

Meese R.A., Rogoff K. Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies:
Do they fit out of sample? // Journal of International Economics. —
Vol.14/1-2. — 1983. — ?.3—24.

PAGE 22

PAGE 21

C?inoaiiy aeo?ao (14)

?enoiie 1. Iiaeaeue aca?iiae?? aaethoieo eo?n?a oa ia?aieo aeiiii?/ieo
iieaciee?a

*e aeinooiia ?ioi?iaoe?y ia ??ai? ?eieo i?aoe??

Oi?ioaaiiy ?ioi?iaoe?? i?i noai aeiiii?ee (7), (8), (9)

Nooo?aa c?inoaiiy aaethoiiai eo?no. Niaaeaiiy aaaaonoaa. Niaaeaiiy
aeo?ao, ?iaanoeoe?e

Ia?oee aoai

I?

O?neaeueia oa iiiaoa?ia noeioethaaiiy o?iainiai-aeiiii?/ii? noa?e c aieo
?aaoethth/iai iaoai?cio

Aeeeeeaia ciai?oi?ie oaeoi?aie (ianiinoa?aaeoaaieie ia iiiaio ?icaeyaeo)
c?inoaiiy a?ioiai? iane (I1, I2)

*e aeinooiia ?ioi?iaoe?y ia i?e?i??ai??

Oae

A?aeiinia ca?eueoaiiy iiieoo ia a?io? (3)

Niaaeaiiy aaethoiiai eo?no (a?aeiinia iineeaiiy iiceoe?e a?o/eciyii?
aaethoe ca iaci?iiino? i?aeia?iaeiiai noaio aeiiii?ee) (4), (7)

Iaia?aaeaa/oaaia c?inoaiiy eiiiiiaio a aio?aeiaeo aaeainao (11)

C?inoaiiy ??aiy aaaaonoaa (9)

C?inoaiiy aeo?ao oa ae?iaieoeoaa

C?inoaiiy aeo?ao (aioo??oi?o)

ia o?iainia? aeoeae (4)

A?aeiinia niaaeaiiy aac?ia?ooy

C?inoaiiy ca?ia?oii? ieaoe

C?inoaiiy ae?iaie/eo iiooaeiinoae oa caooo i?iaeoeoe?? (5)

C?inoaiiy oe?i ia aioo??oi? aeoe?? (6)

Aeoea?caoe?y aea?aeaaii? a?ioiai? iie?oeee (4), (5)

C?inoaiiy ?iaeaeno niiaeea/eo oe?i (10)

C?inoaiiy i?ioeaioieo noaaie (2)

C?inoaiiy aaaaonoaa (15), (16)

Ciaioaiiy ?aaeueiiai iiieoo ia a?io? (12), (13)

*e aeinooiia ?ioi?iaoe?y ia ??ai? o??ie?

Oae

O?ao?e aoai

Ae?oaee aoai

I?

Oae

I?

Ia?oee aoai

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