16

OE?A?INUeEEE IAOEIAEE A?A??I?*IEE OeAIO?

IIC OE?A?IE

E?oea?a Iaoae?y ?aai?aia

OAeE: 575.1:616006053.2

IAAeEEIAAIAOE*IA EIINOEUeOOAAIIss N?IAE

C IIEIEIA?*IITH IAOIEIA??TH A IIOIINOA?

03.00.15 aaiaoeea

Aaoi?aoa?ao

aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy

eaiaeeaeaoa iaaee/ieo iaoe

Ee?a — 1999

Aeena?oaoe??th ? ?oeiien.

?iaioa aeeiiaia o Euea?anueeiio IAe? niaaeeiai? iaoieia?? IIC Oe?a?ie.

Iaoeiaee ea??aiee:aeieoi? iaaee/ieo iaoe, Aaa?eethe TH??e Eineoiae/,
IAe? niaaeeiai? iaoieia?? IIC Oe?a?ie, caa?aeoaa/ a?aeae?eaiiyi

Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe:- Aeieoi? iaaee/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?, Aa?eeye ?ai?
?iiaiiae/, Oe?a?inueeee iaoeiaee oeaio? iaaee/ii? aaiaoeee IIC ? IAI
Oe?a?ie, caa?aeoaa/ eaai?aoi???th iooaaaiaca ? aioeiooaaaiaca;

— Aeieoi? iaaee/ieo iaoe, Iie?uoe Ethaeieea Caoa??aia ?inoeooo
aenia?eiaioaeueii? iaoieia??, iieieia?? ? ?aae?ia?ieia?? IAI Oe?a?ie,
i?ia?aeiee iaoeiaee ni?a?ia?oiee

I?ia?aeia onoaiiaa:?aaii–O?aie?anueea aea?aeaaia iaaee/ia aeaaeai?y,
eaoaae?a iaaee/ii? a?ieia?? oa aaiaoeee, IIC Oe?a?ie, i.
?aaii–O?aie?anuee

Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny “ 12 ” eenoiiaaea 1999 ?. i 1000 aiae.
ia can?aeaii? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Ae.26.604.01. a
Oe?a?inueeiio iaoeiaiio a?a??i?/iiio oeaio?? IIC Oe?a?ie (253660,
i.Ee?a–94, aoe.Iiioae?aiei, 50).

C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoenue o a?ae?ioaoe? Oe?a?inueeiai
iaoeiaiai a?a??i?/iiai oeaio?o IIC Oe?a?ie (Ee?a, Iiioae?aiei, 50).

Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaiee “ 16 ” aa?aniy 1999 ?.

A/aiee nae?aoa? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee Naeaciueia A.TH.

Aeooaeueiinoue oaie. Ca inoaiii ?iee c?inea /anoioa ceiyeinieo iooeei
na?aae aeioae a Oe?a?ii. Ui?i/ii a Oe?a?i? aieueoa, iiae o oeny/i aeioae
aeyaeythoue ?iciiiaiioii iooeeie, aeeth/ath/e eaeeai??. Oae, ca
noaoenoe/ieie aeaieie [I.A. Aonaeaoiaa, 1998] a Oe?a?ii o 1994 ?ioei
aaniethoia eieueeinoue oai?eo ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie ??ciiai aaiaco
noaiiaeea 1172 aeeoeie, o 1995?. 1053, o 1996?. 1179 aai 11,5 ia 100
oeny/ ae?oae o 1996 ?ioe?. I?iaeaia ceiyeinieo iooeei o aeioae ?
iaeaaaeeea?oith a iieieiai?, ineieueee ia oii? aiaeiinii iaaeniei? o
ii??ayii? c aei?ineei ianaeaiiyi caoai?thaaiinoi (10 15 ia 100 oen.
aeeoy/iai ianaeaiiy) [ R.Barr, 1996 ] ceiyeinii iiaiooai?aiiy a aeioae
na?aae i?e/ei nia?oiinoi o aieueoinoi iiaeono?iaeueieo e?a?i caeiathoue
ae?oaa iinoea iiney o?aai i iauanieo aeiaaeeia.

Aeiaaaeaii, ui ?icaeoie iooeei iaoiiaeaiee aaiaoe/ieie iaoai?ciaie. Oiio
aaaeeeaeie ? ?ic?iaea iiaeo ae?aaiinoe/ieo oa aaiaoe/ieo e?eoa???a
noeeueiino? aei ceiye?nieo iooeei oa aecia/aiiy ?eceeo iiyae
iieicaoai?thaaiue, ye? ni?e/eiai? oaeoi?aie ye aaiaoe/iiai, oae ?
aeieia?/iiai oa?aeoa?o. Ioaea, ?ic?aooiie ?eceeo iieieia?/ii? iaoieia??
a ae?oae ? aaaeeeaei iai?yieii iaaeeeiaaiaoe/iiai eiinoeueooaaiiy.

Ia?aaaaeia aieueoinoue iiaiooai?aiue ethaeeie aeieea? aiane?aeie
eaioea?iaaiieo oaeoi??a aeiaeieey [A.E. Eacthe, 1991; A. Knudson, 1992;
Ae.Aioiai, 1994; Ae.O. Aeociai, 1994]. sse i i?e aaiaoe/ii
aeaoa?iiiiaaieo iooeeiao, oae i i?e oniaaeeoaaiii oieueee noeeueiinoi
aei ?o ?icaeoeo aaaeeeaa cia/aiiy o aeieeiaii ceiyeinieo iooeei
aiaeia?athoue aeciaaiii oaeoi?e. Oiio aeooaeueiei ? c’ynoaaiiy
aiaeiinii? ?ie? niaaeeiaeo oaeoi?ia i oaeoi?ia aeiaeieey o ?icaeoeo
iooeei o aeioae. I?ioa nenoaiaoe/i? aeine?aeaeaiiy o oeueiio iai?yieo
aei oeueiai /ano a?aenooi?. Ca inoaiii ?iee, caaaeyee oe?ieiio aea/aiith
oaiiiaia o?aiieaoeaioa?iiai eaioea?iaaiaco [A.I.Aieneiia, 1997; J.M.
Khoury, 1997], io?eiaii aaaeeeai aeaii aeey ?ic?iaee iaoiaaiaoe/ieo
iniia i?aiaoaeueii? i?ioieaeoeee iooeei oa aecia/aiiy aieeao
eaioea?iaaiieo oaeoi?ia aeiaeieey.

Ineieueee aeiy iooaaaiiiai aaaioa ia aia?iii iiaea i?iyaeyoeny eiai
caaeaaeeth aai ia?a?eaaiiyi aaaioiinoi, aeieeiaiiyi aaae ?icaeoeo aai
iooeei o iioiinoai [I.I.Iaiaeeia, 1989; G.F.Holland, 1997], ieoaiiy
aca?iiaiaeoaiiy iiae oa?aoiaaiacii i eaioea?iaaiacii ia? aeoaea aaaeeeaa
cia/aiiy. Aea/aiiy ca’yceo iiae aeacaieie i?ioeanaie, iiaeeeai,
i?ecaaaea aei aecia/aiiy i?e/ei aeieeiaiiy ceiyeinieo iooeei, aeiiiiiaea
aeyaeoe eaioea?iaaiii oaeoi?e aeiaeieey oa ioeiieoe eiiai?iinoue
?aaeicaoei? oaeoi??a niaaeeiainoi, iia’ycaieo c ?icaeoeii iooeeiiiai
i?ioeano.

O ca’yceo ?c aeuacacia/aiei aeooaeueiith i?iaeaiith ye aaiaoeee, oae ?
iieieia?? ? ?ic?iaea oa oaeineiiaeaiiy i?eioeei?a iaaeeeiaaiaoe/iiai
eiinoeueooaaiiy n?iae i?e iayaiino? iieieia?/ii? iaoieia?? a ae?oae aeey
aecia/aiiy ?eceeo iiyae ceiye?nieo iooeei o iioiinoa?.

Aiiaeaiiieiai/ieie aeineiaeaeaiiyie anoaiiaeaii, ui ceiyeini? iooeeie o
aeioae /anoi ii?aeiothoueny c iaaieie aaaeaie ?icaeoeo, iaeiae aaaee
?icaeoeo iiaeooue iaoe ?ioo eieaeicaoeith, i?ae ceiye?nia iooeeia
[G.D.Frost, 1996; A.Zipursky, 1997]. I?e aiaeici oaeeo niinoa?aaeaiue
anoaiiaeaii, ui aiie iaoiiaeaii aieeaii aaiaoe/ieo oaeoi?ia [G.
Tomlinson, 1992; K. PritchardJones, 1996]. Oiio iaiao?aeiei ? aecia/aiiy
ca’yceo i?ae oa?aoiaaiacii i ?icaeoeii iiaiooai?aiue. I?ioa iio?iaii
a?aooaaoe, ui iiyaa i?e?iaeaeaieo aaae ?icaeoeo (IA?) ia caaaeaee
ia?aaeo? iooeeiiiio i?ioeano, a o?ainieaoeaioa?iee eaioea?iaaiac ia
caaaeaee ? ianeiaeeii oi?ioaaiiy IA?, iaaioue, yeui iiae /an aaaioiinoi
aeiyee oiii/ii eaioea?iaaiii ?a/iaeie [Iaiaeeia I.I., 1989].

Ana aeacaia aeua na?ae/eoue, ui aaaaoi ieoaiue uiaei niaaeeiai? i?e?iaee
ceiyeiniiai ?inoo ? ?icaeoeo IA? i?ae aieeaii oe?aeeeaeo oaeoi??a
aeiae?eey ? aeeneooaaaeueieie i aei eiioey ua iiaiinoth ia c’yniaaieie.

Iaoa ?iaioe i?iaanoe ai?aeai?ieia?/ia aeine?aeaeaiiy i?e?iaeaeaieo aaae
?icaeoeo o ae?oae ?c iieieia?/iith iaoieia??th, ui i?iaeeaathoue o
cao?aeiiio ?aa?ii? Oe?a?ie, oa aaeineiiaeeoe i?eioeeie
iaaeeei–aaiaoe/iiai eiinoeueooaaiiy n?iae c oai?eie ae?oueie ia
ceiye?ni? iooeeie.

Caaaeaiiy aeineiaeaeaiiy.

1. Aea/eoe niaeo? iieieia?/ii? iaoieia?? o ae?oae Euea?anueei?,
??aiainueei? oa Aieeinueei? iaeanoae.

2. Aea/eoe iioe?aiiy ? niaeo? IA? o aeioae ic ceiyeinieie
iiaiooai?aiiyie ??cieo iaeanoae Cao?aeiiai ?aa?iio Oe?a?ie.

3. I?iaanoe ii?iaiyiiy ca iaoiaeii aeiaaeieeiio?ieue
ee?i?eiaaiaaeia?/ieo oa?aeoa?enoee ?iaeiaiae?a n?iae Euea?anueei?
iaeano?.

4. Ioe?ieoe aianie oe?aeeeaeo oaeoi??a aeiae?eey oa aaiaoe/ii?
eiiiiiaioe o caaaeueio noeeuei?noue aeieeiaiiy ceiye?nieo iiaiooai?aiue
o ae?oae.

5. Aecia/eoe oaeoi?e ?eceeo aeieeiaiiy iieieia?/ii? iaoieia?? o ae?oae.

Ca’ycie ?iaioe c iaoeiaeie i?ia?aiaie, ieaiaie, oaiaie. Aeena?oaoe?eia
?iaioa a ?aieao Aea?aeaaii? iaoeiai-oaoi?/ii? i?ia?aie “Caoeno
aaiioiiaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie” ? ? o?aaiaioii eiiieaenii? IAe?
“Aeine?aeaeaiiy aeeiai?ee aaiaoe/ieo aoaeo?a *i?iiaeeuenueei? eaoano?ioe
na?aae ae?iie oa ae?oae o?aaeaieo ?aa?ii?a Oe??ie”, ? aea?ae?a?no?aoe??
0196U006742.

Iaoeiaa iiaecia ?iaioe. Oeyoii aiae?co i?ae?aa?iiaeueieo a?aei?iiinoae
iioe?aiino? ? niaeo?o IA? i?e iieieia?/i?e iaoieia?? a ae?oae io?eiaii
i?aeoaa?aeaeaiiy a?iioace i?i eiia?iiaaio ae?th /eiiee?a oa?aoiaaiaco,
iooaaaiaco oa eaioea?iaaiaco. Aia?oa i?iaiae?ciaaii iioe?ai?noue ?
niaeo? IA? o ae?oae cao?aeiiai ?aa?iio Oe?a?ie c iieieia?/iith
iaoieia??th. Aeiaaaeaia aa??aaaeuei?noue ? iaiaeii??aei?noue
?iciianthaeaeaiiy ye iieiiaoieia??, oae ? IA?. Aia?oa o cao?aeiiio
?aa?ii? Oe?a?ie i?iaaaeaii aiae?c ceiye?nieo iooeei o ae?oae ca iaoiaeii
aeiaaeieeiio?ieue. Anoaiiaeaii ieoiio aaao aaiaoe/ii? eiiiiiaioe ?
oaeoi??a aeaae?eey o caaaeueio noeeuei?noue aei iieieia?/ii? iaoieia?? o
ae?oae oa ?ic?aoiaaii eiao?oe??io niaaeeiaino?. Anoaiiaeaii oaeoi?e, ye?
ni?eythoue aeieeiaiith iieiiaoieia?? a iioiinoa?.

I?aeoe/ia cia/eiinoue ?iaioe. Oaeineiiaeaii i?eioeeie
iaaeeei–aaiaoe/iiai eiinoeueooaaiiy n?iae oeyoii iiaeeaeaiiai aea/aiiy
?iaeiaiae?a. ?ic?iaeaia ? ai?iaaaeaeaia a ?iaioo aaiaoieia?/iiai ?
o??o?a?/iiai a?aeae?eaiue iaeanii? aeeoy/i? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? ee?i?/ii?
e?ea?i? i.Eueaiaa ea?oe aeey aa?eo?eaoe?? a?iaeaeaii? ? niaaeeiai?
iaoieia??, yea i?iiiio?oueny aeey aeei?enoaiiy a on?o iaaeeei–aaiaoe/ieo
eiinoeueoaoe?yo Oe?a?ie. Aia?oa noai?aii iieieiai/iee ?a?no? niiae ic
iieieia?/iith iaoieia??th o ae?oae, ye? i?iaeeaathoue ia oa?eoi???
Euea?anueei? iaeano?.

Iniaenoee aianie caeiaoaa/a. Aeena?oaioii iniaenoi aeeiiai?
ee?i?ei–aaiaaeia?/i? ianoaaeaiiy n?iae, ye? iathoue ae?oae ?c
ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie, i?iaiae?ciaaii ia?aeiio iaaee/io aeieoiaioaoe?th
aaiaoieia?/ieo oa o??o?a?/ieo a?aeae?eaiue, iniaenoi i?iaiaeeeeny
aeniaaeeoe?? a ??aiainueeo oa Aieeinueeo iaeano?. ?ic?iaea caaaeaiue
aeine?aeaeaiiy aeeiiaii aeena?oaioii naiino?eii. Iniaenoi i?iaiae?ciaaii
e?oa?aoo?o c aeaii? i?iaeaie ? i?iaaaeaii aeeaieee ?ioi?iaoe?eiee iiooe.
Naiino?eii i?iaaaeaii oai?aoe/ia ocaaaeueiaiiy aeaieo, e?ioeaaa
?ioa?i?aoaoe?y ?acoeueoao?a ? aecia/aiiy a?aeiia?aeieo aeniiae?a.

Ai?iaaoeiy iaoa?iaeia ?iaioe. Iaoa?iaee aeena?oaoei? aeiiiaiaeaeeny i
iaaiai?thaaeeny ia eiioa?aioei? “Iieiaaiaoieiai/ia iaoieiaiy a i?aeoeoei
iaaeiao?a” (Eueaia, 1997), ia I iiaeia?iaeiiio iaaee/iiio eiia?ani
nooaeaioia i iieiaeeo a/aieo (Oa?iiiieue, 1997), ia nai?ia?? “Aeooaeuei?
ieoaiiy aeeoy/i? iieieia??” (Ee?a, 1998), ia ?aa?iiaeuei?e
eiioa?aioe??nai?ia?? i?aoe?aiee?a iaaeeeiaaiaoe/ieo eaa?iao?a Cao?aeiiai
?aa?iio Oe?a?ie c ieoaiue iaaeeeiaaiaoe/iiai eiinoeueooaaiiy (Euea?a,
1998; Euea?a, 1999), ia ?? I?aeia?iaeiiio iaaee/iiio eiia?an? nooaeaio?a
? iieiaeeo a/aieo (Oa?iii?eue, 1998), ia ?? C’?cae? iaaee/ieo aaiaoee?a
Oe?a?ie (Euea?a, 1995), ia V c’?cae? Anaoe?a?inueeiai e?ea?nueeiai
oiaa?enoaa (Ee?a, 1999).

Ioaeieaoei? oa iioi oi?ie ai?iaaaeaeaiiy. Ca iaoa??aeaie aeena?oaoe??
iioae?eiaaii 17 ?ia?o, c ieo a oeaio?aeueieo iaoeiaeo aeo?iaeao 6
(“Iaae?ao??y, aeooa?noai ? a?iaeieia?y” , 1997; “I?aeoe/ia iaaeeoeeia”,
1998, “ Iaae?ao??y, aeooa?noai ? a?iaeieia?y”, 1998; “Oe?a?inueeee
?aae?ieia?/iee aeo?iae”, 1998, “European Journal of Oncology”, 1998;
“E?ea?nueea ni?aaa”, 1999).

No?oeoo?a oa ia’?i ?iaioe. Aeena?oaoe?th aeeeaaeaii ia 164 noi??ieao, c
ieo 105 noi??iie oaenoo, 20 noi??iie caeiathoue ?ethno?aoe??, 14
noi??iie oaaeeoe?, 25 noi??iie ia?ae?e aeei?enoaii? e?oa?aoo?e.
Aeena?oaoe?y neeaaea?oueny c? anooio, iaeyaeo e?oa?aoo?e, naie ?icae?e?a
aeanieo aeine?aeaeaiue, aiae?co oa ocaaaeueiaiiy ?acoeueoao?a
aeine?aeaeaiiy, aeniiae?a oa i?aeoe/ieo ?aeiiaiaeaoe?e, nieneo
aeei?enoaii? e?oa?aoo?e. Nienie e?oa?aoo?e aeeth/a? 273 aeaea?aea, c ieo
204 ca?oaiaeieo. ?iaioo ?ethno?othoue 25 oaaeeoeue oa 39 ?enoie?a.

?iaioa aeeiiaia o aiaeiiaiaeiinoi c iaoeiiiaeueiith i?ia?aiith “Caoeno
aaiioiiaeo ianaeaiiy Oe?a?ie” o Eueaianueeiio IAeI niaaeeiai? iaoieiai?
(aee?aeoi? aeieoi? iaae. iaoe, i?ioani? I.C. Aiaoaeei), ia aaci
iaeanii? aeeoy/i? niaoeiaeiciaaii? eeiii/ii? eiea?ii i. Eueaiaa
(aieiaiee eiea? I.A. Ieiaethe).

Ci?no ?iaioe

Caaaeueia oa?aeoa?enoeea iaoa??aeo, iaoiae?a ? noaie aeine?aeaeaiiy.
Iaoa??aeii aeine?aeaeaiiy aoea iaaee/ia aeieoiaioaoe?y (?noi??? oai?iae)
oa a?o?ai? aeai? (aeienee c ?noi??? oai?iae, aiaoeaoi?i? ea?oe) 438
ae?oae ?c ceiye?nieie iiaiooai?aiiyie o a?oe? a?ae 14 aei?a aei 15 ?ie?a
ca 1986–1996 ??. Oe? ae?oe i?iaeeaaee o ??cieo iaeanoyo Oe?a?ie
cao?aeiiai ?aa?iio: o Euea?anuee?e iaeano? – 179 aeiaaee?a, o
Aieeinuee?e iaeano? – 175 aeiaaee?a, o ??aiainuee?e – 84 aeiaaeee
caoai?thaaiue. ?noi??? oai?iae oeeo ae?oae aiae?coaaee uiaei /anoioe ?
niaeo?o iieieia?/ii? iaoieia?? oa IA? o caeaaeiino? a?ae a?eo oa noao?.
?iciiae?e oai?eo ae?oae ca ee?i?/iei ae?aaiicii iiaeaii o oaaeeoe? 1.

Oaaeeoey 1

?iciiae?e oai?eo ae?oae ca ee?i?/iei ae?aaiicii (1986–1996 ??.)

Iicieia?/ia oi?ia oai?iaeE?euee?noue oai?eo
ae?oae%Eaeeai??22551,4E?ioiie9521,7Iao?iaeanoiia358,0Na?eiie e?noie ?
i’yeeo oeaiei4610,5?io? iooeeie378,4Anueiai438100

E??i oiai i?iaiaeeeiny ee?i?ei–aaiaaeia?/ia aeine?aeaeaiiy 358 n?iae ca
iaoiaeii aeiaaeie–eiio?ieue. A iniiaio a?oio oa?eoee 179 n?iae, ye?
iathoue ae?oae ?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie: 114 oeii/ee?a, 65 ae?a/aoie,
ye? ia?aaoaaee ia e?eoaaii? a Euea?anuee?e iaeani?e aeeoy/?e
niaoe?ae?ciaai?e ee?i?/i?e e?ea?i? (IAeNEE – aieiaiee e?ea? Ieiaethe
I.A.) o aaiaoieia?/iiio (caa. a?aeae?eaiiyi – Iie?uoe ?.N.) oa
o??o?a?/iiio (caa. a?aeae?eaiiyi – Eoeaaaoeueeee ?.A.) a?aeae?eaiiyo.
Eiio?ieueio a?oio neeaee 179 n?iae ?c i?aeoe/ii caei?iaeie ae?oueie, ye?
a?aeiia?aeaee iniiai?e a?oi? ca a?eii ? noaooth. Aeai? caiineeeny a
ea?oo ianoaaeaiiy aeeoeie, yea ?ic?iaeaia iaie o Euea?anueeiio IAe?
niaaeeiai? iaoieia??. Ee?i?/iee ae?aaiic o ae?oae aoei aa?eo?eiaaii i?e
a?noieia?/iiio aeine?aeaeaii? aeaeaeaieo iooeei aai a?iioaoo, yeee
i?iaiaeeee e?ea?? Euea?anueei? IAeNEE (caa. eaai?aoi???th – Iao?oo
A.A.). O 30 oai?eo c aaiiaeanoicaie i?iaaaeaii aiae?c ea??ioeio ?
no?oeoo?ieo aaa?aoe?e o?iiinii o e?ioioeeoao ia?eoa?e/ii? e?ia? oa
ee?oeiao e?noeiaiai iiceo i?e ?o ei?ioeino?ieiaiio eoeueoeaoaaii?. Oey
/anoeia ?iaioe i?iaaaeaia ni?eueii c e?ea?ai–oeeoiaaiaoeeii N??aiei A.A.
O eiaeiiio aeiaaeeo i?iaiae?ciaaii 100 iaoaoacieo ieanoeiie. Eiio?ieai o
oeueiio o?aaiaio? aeine?aeaeaiiy aoee oeeoiaaiaoe/i? aeai? aiae?co
o?iiinii eoeueoeaiaaieo e?ioioeeo?a o 15 ae?oae. Ee?i?ei–aaiaaeia?/iee
aiae?c aeeth/aa aaciina?aaeith aan?aeo c aaoueeaie i?ioyaii 1,5 – 2
aiaeeie c iiaeeaeaiei aea/aiiyi ?iaeiaiaeo, ?ai?iaeoeoeaiiai aiaiiaco,
oe?aeeeaeo cae/ie o aaouee?a (i?ioan?ei? oa ?io? /eiieee). I?e
ee?i?ei–aaiaaeia?/iiio ianoaaeaii? iaio a?oi io?eiai? aeai? i?i
caoai?thaaiiy 1031 ?iaee/a ? nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino?, 2803 ?iaee/?a ??
nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino?, 15798 ?iaee/?a ??? nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino?.
Ia?aooiee a?iioace iiiiaaiiiai oniaaeeoaaiiy i?iaiaeeeeny ca iaoiaeii
Aaeaa?aena, eiao?oe??ioo niaaeeiaino? aei ceiye?nieo iooeei ca Falconer
(h2) [D.S. Falconer, 1967]. Iaie i?iaaaeaia ia?aa??ea a?iioace
?aoeaneaiiai oa aeii?iaioiiai oeio oniaaeeoaaiiy (ai??i?iei iaoiaeii
nean?a), yea a?oioo?oueny ia ni?anoaaeaii? aeyaeaii? e?eueeino? oai?eo a
n?i’yo ianoaaeaieo c oai?aoe/ii i/?eoaaiith e?euee?noth oai?eo [A.
Emery, 1967]. Oeeo?ia? aeai? i?aeeyaaee noaoenoe/i?e ia?iaoe? ca
i?ia?aiith MS Excel. Io?eiai? aeai? uiaei ee?i?ei–aaiaaeia?/iiai
ianoaaeaiiy oai?eo ae?oae Euea?anueei? iaeano? ii?oieia?/iiai ?
oeeoiaaiaoe/iiai ianoaaeaiy caiineeeny o eiii’thoa?, ui iineoaeeei
aacith aeey noai?aiiy ?a?no?o n?iae c iieieia?/iith iaoieia??th o
ae?oae.

?ACOEUeOAOE AEANIEO AeINE?AeAEAIUe

?ao?iniaeoeaiee aiae?c iieieia?/ii? iaoieia??. Aiae?c ?noi??e oai?iae
ae?oae ca 1986–1996 ??. Euea?anueei?, Aieeinueei? ? ??aiainueei?
iaeanoae (oaae. 2) aeyaea, ui na?aae caaaeueii? e?eueeino?
iieiiaoieia?? o ae?oae iae/ano?oa cono??/athoueny eaeeai?? a?ae 41,9%
o Euea?anuee?e iaeano? aei 61,9% – o ??aiainuee?e oa e?ioiie a?ae 16,8%
o Euea?anuee?e aei 25,1% o Aieeinuee?e iaeanoyo. Oe? aeai?
ni?aiaaeathoue ?c caaaeueiina?oiaeie iieacieeaie uiaei i??i?eoaoo
e?ioii?ie?oa?aoeaieo caoai?thaaiue o ae?oae [ S.L.Parker, 1996].
E?euee?noue iao?iaeanoii aoea cia/ii iaioith: 3,6% (?) – 10,6% (E), oae
naii ye ? e?euee?noue na?eii e?noie ? i’yeeo oeaiei 3,6% (?) – 17,3%
(E). E?euee?noue ?ioeo iooeei (?aoeiiaeanoiia, aaiaoiaeanoiia,
iae?iaeanoiia oiui) neeaaeaea a?ae 4,6% o Aieeinuee?e iaeano? aei 13,4%
o Euea?anuee?e iaeano?.

Oaaeeoey 2

Oi?ie iieieia?/ii? iaoieia?? o ae?oae Euea?anueei? (E), ??aiainueei? (?)

? Aieeinueei? (A) iaeanoae Oe?a?ie o 19861996 ?ieao

Iicieia?/ia oi?ia oai?iaeE?euee?noue oai?eo ae?oae a
iaeanoyoE?An%n%n%Eaeeai??7541,95261,99856,0E?ioiie3016,82125,04425,1Iao?
iaeanoiia1910,633,6137,4Na?eiie e?noie ? i’yeeo
oeaiei3117,333,6126,9?io? iooeeie2413,455,984,6Anueiai17910084*100175100

I?ei?oea. * cia/ii iaioa e?euee?noue aeiaaee?a iieieia?/ii? iaoieia??
coiiaeaia /anoeiaith ao?aoith iaaee/ii? aeieoiaioaoe??

O oeeo aea ae?oae i?iaiae?ciaaii /anoioo ? niaeo? IA? (oaae. 3). Na?aae
438 ae?oae ?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie o 26 (5,9%) niinoa??aaeeny IA?
??ciiai iioiaeaeaiiy. Aeai? oaaeeoe? 3 na?ae/aoue, ui i?e iaeiaeia?e
/anoio? IA? ia 10000 aeeoy/iai ianaeaiiy o Euea?anuee?e ? Aieeinuee?e
iaeanoyo e?euee?noue aeiaaee?a IA? o ae?oae ?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie ?
a?eueoith o Aieeinuee?e iaeano? ? neeaaea? 8% o ii??aiyii? c
Euea?anueeith iaeanoth (5%).

Oaaeeoey 3

Ioe?iea /anoioe ? niaeo?o IA? i?e iieieia?/i?e iaoieia?? o ae?oae

Euea?anueei? (E), ??aiainueei? (?) ? Aieeinueei? (A) iaeanoae Oe?a?ie

o 19861996 ?ieao

Aiae?ciaai? iieacieeeIaeano?Euea?anueea??aiainueeaAieeinueeaAnueiai
aeiaaee?a iieieia?/ii? iaoieia??17984*175E?euee?noue aeiaaee?a
IA?9314*anoioa IA? ( % )5,03,68,0*anoioa IA? a caaaeueiiio ii iaeano? o
1986 1996 ??. (ia 10000 aeeoy/iai ianaeaiiy)

187,9

162,7

187,7

I?ei?oea. * cia/ii iaioa e?euee?noue aeiaaee?a iieieia?/ii? iaoieia??
coiiaeaia /anoeiaith ao?aoith iaaee/ii? aeieoiaioaoe??

IA? aoee aeyaeai? o 9 ae?oae (5%) Euea?anueei? iaeano?, o?ueio ae?oae
??aiainueei? iaeano? (3,6%) ? 14 ae?oae Aieeinueei? iaeano? (8%). Niaeo?
ca?a?no?iaaieo IA? oa?aeoa?ecoaaany iie?ii?oi?noth.

I?e?iaeaeai? aaaee ?icaeoeo na?aae ae?oae iniiaii? a?oie Euea?anueei?
iaeano? cono??/aeeny o 9 (5,0 %) aeiaaeeao: a?n?i oeii/ee?a ? iaei???
ae?a/eiee. Na?aae IA? o ae?oae Euea?anueei? iaeano? iae/ano?oa
cono??/aeeny aiiiae?? e?noeiaii`ycaai? nenoaie (e?eaioey oa
eeeoiiia?noue) oa i?e?ioeaoae?y.

Na?aae 84 ae?oae ??aiainueei? iaeano? IA? niinoa??aaeiny o 3 (3,6%) –
i?e?ioeaoae?y, iiia?a/ia aeenoii?y ie?ie, iaca?iuaiiy a?ei? e?i??
aeeaioa.

I?e?iaeaeai? aaaee ?icaeoeo aoee aeyaeai? o 14 (8%) ae?oae Aieeinueei?
iaeano?: o 8 (8 %) c? 100 oeii/ee?a ? 6 (8%) c? 75 ae?a/aoie. I?e/iio o
i’youeio ae?oae ii?aeiaiiy IA? oa iieiiaoieia?? aoei aeyaeaii o a?oe?
aei 1-ai i?nyoey: o ae?a/aoie oea aoee aaiaoiaeanoiia ? aiiiae?y
eaaaiue, iaaiaeaee?inueea e?ioiia ? aiiiae?y aa?oiuei? ii?iaeienoi?
aaie, iooeeia A?eueina ce?aa ? iie?e?noic i?aai? ie?ee oa aiiiae?y
?icaeoeo ciai?oi?o noaoaaeo i?aai?a; o oeii/ee?a – a?eaoa?aeueia
iao?iaeanoiia ? neiae?ii Ioiai, aino?a i??eiaeanoia eaeeai?y ? neiae?ii
Aeaoia. Aeoiaey/e c io?eiaieo aeaieo, ia iiaeia aeeeth/eoe iiaeeeaino?
eiia?iiaaii? ?aae?caoe?? oa?aoiaaiieo oa iieiaaiaoe/ieo aoaeo?a i?e ae??
aeiaeaoeiaeo oe?aeeeaeo oaeoi??a ia iiioeyoe?th Aieeinueei? iaeano?.

Na?aae 179 n?iae Euea?anueei? iaeano? iieicaoai?thaaiiy o ??aeieo nean?a
ia cono??/aeeny. O ??aiainuee?e iaeano? na?aae 84 n?iae aeyaeaii iaeei
(1,1%) aeiaaeie iiaoi?aiiy eaeeai?? a ?iaeei?, na?aae 175 n?iae
Aieeinueei? iaeano? 2 (1,1%), aeiaaeee ceiye?nieo iooeei na?aae nean?a.

Ee?i?eiaaiaaeia?/ia ianoaaeaiiy n?iae ca iaoiaeii aeiaaeieeiio?ieue.
Ee?i?ei–aaiaaeia?/ia ianoaaeaiiy n?iae Euea?anueei? iaeano? ca iaoiaeii
aeiaaeie–eiio?ieue aeyaea oae? aeai?: na?aae 179 ae?oae ?c ceiye?nieie
iooeeiaie niinoa??aaeiny 4 n?i’?, aea iieiiaoieia?th iaee aaoueei aai
iaoe, oiaoi ?iaee/? ? iieie?iiy. A eiio?ieuei?e a?oi? (179 ae?oae)
aeyaeaii 3 n?i’?, aea ceiye?ni? iiaiooai?aiiy iaee aaoueei aai iaoe
i?iaaiaea (oaae. 4). I?e ii??aiyii? /anoioe ceiye?nieo iooeei o ?iaee/?a
i?iaaiaea ? nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino? ia aeyaeaii aeinoia??ii? ??cieoe?
i?ae iniiaiith – 5 oai?eo (3 iaoa??a ? 2 aaouee?a; o oiio /ene? a iaei?e
n?i’? – iaoe ? aaoueei) na?aae 557 ?iaee/?a ? eiio?ieueiith a?oiaie – 3
oai?eo (2 iaoa??a ? 1 aaoueei) na?aae 479 ?iaee/?a. Ia aeyaeaii
aeinoia??ii? ??cieoe? uiaei caoai?thaaiue aaouee?a i?iaaiae?a
ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie iaio a?oi (? > 0,05).

O ?iaee/?a ?? nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino? – 50 (3,3%) oai?eo na?aae 1506
?iaee/?a iniiaii? oa 43 (3,3%) oai?eo na?aae 1297 ?iaee/?a eiio?ieueii?
a?oi /anoioa ceiye?nieo iooeei ia?aaaaeaea ii aaouee?anuee?e e?i?? a
iniiai?e a?oi? 64,9% a ii??aiyii? ?c eiio?ieai 30,8%. I?e ii??aiyii?
/anoioe ceiye?nieo iooeei o ?iaee/?a ??? nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino? – 155
(1,6%) oai?eo na?aae 9738 ?iaee/?a iniiaii? oa 88 (1,5%) oai?eo na?aae
6060 ?iaee/?a eiio?ieueii? a?oi aeyaeaii, ui ?iaee/? ?c iieieia?/iith
iaoieia??th ii iaoa?einuee?e e?i?? cono??/aeeny a 1,8 2,4 ?ace /ano?oa,
oi/a aeinoia??ii? ??cieoe? i?ae eiio?ieueiith ? iniiaiith a?oiaie ia
aeyaeaii (P>0,05). Na?aae n?iae ?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie ia aeyaeaii
aeinoia??ii? ??cieoe? uiaei e?eueeino? ?iaee/?a ?c iieieia?/iith
iaoieia??th.

Noaoenoe/ia ia?aa??ea a?iioac iiiiaaiiiai oniaaeeoaaiiy aea/aieo
ceiye?nieo iooeei iieacaea i?aeoe/io ?o iaa?aeiia?aei?noue i?
aeii?iaioiiio, i? ?aoeaneaiiio oeio ia?aaea/? iaoieia??. Oiio ie i?iaaee
ia?aa??eo a?iioace ioeueoeoaeoi?ii? iiaeae? oniaaeeoaaiiy ceiye?nieo
iooeei ca iaoiaeii Aaeaa?aena, yea i?eionea? iie?aaiiee oei
oniaaeeoaaiiy. ?ic?aooiee iieacaee, ui /anoea niaaeeiaino? a ?icaeoeo
aaiiaeanoic?a neeaaea? 15,3% o ?icaeoeo nie?aeieo iooeei – 10,7%. *anoea
oaeoi??a aeiae?eey neeaaea? a?aeiia?aeii 84,7% oa 89,3%. Oaeei /eiii,
aeei?enoaiiy ioeueoeoaeoi?ii? iiaeae? iioiaeaeaiiy ceiye?nieo iooeei
iieacaei i?ia?aeio ?ieue oaeoi??a aeiae?eey a ?icaeoeo iieieia?/ii?
iaoieia?? a aiae?ciaai?e aea??oe? oai?eo.

Ianooiiei aoaiii ia?aa??ee a?iioace ioeueoeoaeoi?iiai aaiaco ceiye?nieo
iiaiooai?aiue aoei i?iaaaeaiiy aiae?co c ia?aooaaiiyi eiao?oe??ioo
oniaaeeoaaiiy (h2) ca iaoiaeii Falkoner.

Eiao?oe??io oniaaeeoaaiiy ceiye?nieo iooeei (oaae. 5) na?aae ?iaee/?a I
nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino? neeaaea? 15,5% aeey aaiiaeanoic?a, a aeey
nie?aeieo iooeei – 5,8%. Aeey ?iaee/?a II nooiaiy a a?oi? ae?oae c
aaiiaeanoicaie 15,6%, a a a?oi? ae?oae c nie?aeieie iooeeiaie 31,6%.
Na?aae ?iaee/?a III nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino? o ae?oae c aaiiaeanoicaie
eiao?oe??io oniaaeeoaaiiy noeeueiino? aei ceiye?nieo iooeei neeaaea?
22,4%, a a a?oi? ae?oae c nie?aeieie iooeeiaie 6,4%.

Oaeei /eiii, ?acoeueoaoe aeine?aeaeaiue na?ae/aoue, ui aaiiaeanoice oa
nie?aei? iooeeie o ae?oae, ye? aoee i?ae iaoei niinoa?aaeaiiyi,
a?aeiinyoueny aei oai?ia ioeueoeoaeoi?ii? i?e?iaee.

Oaaeeoey 5

Ioe?iea eiao?oe??ioo niaaeeiaino? aei ceiye?nieo iooeei a n?i`yo
i?iaaiae?a ianoaaeaieo a?oi ca iiaeaeeth Falconer a caeaaeiino? a?ae
nooiaiy nii??aeiaiino? ?iaee/?a i?iaaiaea

?iciiae?e oai?eo caCa FalconerNooiaiai nii??aeiaiino?ANqq %?

X

a

b

h2? no.
cii??aeiaiiyAaiiaeanoice43500,0111,140,9892,2772,6210,07715,5%Nie?aei?
iooeeie12020,0050,50,9952,5762,8920,0295,8%Eiio?ieue34790,0060,630,9942,
4952,818II no.
nii??aeiaiiyAaiiaeanoice379210,044,020,961,7512,1540,03915,6%Nie?aei?
iooeeie135850,0222,20,9782,0142,3860,07931,6%Eiio?ieue4312970,0333,30,96
71,8382,231III no.
nii??aeiaiiyAaiiaeanoice10158140,0171,740,9832,1112,4720,02822,4%Nie?aei
?
iooeeie5439240,0141,380,9862,2032,5540,0086,4%Eiio?ieue8860600,0151,450,
9852,1832,537

A e?euee?noue oai?eo o caaaeuei?e iiioeyoe?? N;

q /anoioa caoai?thaaiue;

? aioiai?noue ?iaeea?aeooia aei caoai?thaaiiy;

O na?aaei? cia/aiiy aioiaiino? aei caoai?thaaiiy a a?oi? ?iaee/?a;

a a?aeoeeaiiy, yea a?aeiia?aea? q.

I?e ii??aiyii? /anoioe IA? o nean?a aeyaeaii oaiaeaioe?th uiaei
ca?eueoaiiy /anoioe i?e?iaeaeaieo aaae ?icaeoeo na?aae nean?a a n?i’yo
?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie (oaae. 6).

O iaoa??a caei?iaeo ae?oae ? iaoa??a, ye? ia?iaeeee aeeoeio ?c
ceiye?niith iooeeiith, iae/ano?oa cono??/aeeny IA? ie?ie: ioic,
a?iiieac?y.

A oeae aea /an IA? o aaouee?a iaio a?oi a?ae??ciythoueny a?ae oaeeo o
iaoa??a ia?aaaaeaee i?e?iaeaeai? aaaee na?oey. Oae, o?i? aaouee?a
oai?eo ae?oae (75%) iaee i?e?iaeaeai? aaaee na?oey (iaaeinoaoi?noue oa
noaiic i?o?aeueiiai eeaiaia). O aaoueea ae?a/eiee c e?aia?/iith
iao?iaeanoiiith aoea a?aenooiy i?aaa ie?ea.

Nooo?ai? ??cieoe? uiaei /anoioe i?e?iaeaeaieo aaae ?icaeoeo na?aae
aaouee?a i?iaaiaea iaio a?oi (aeiaaeie–eiio?ieue) ia aoei aeyaeaii
(?>0,05).

Nii??aeiai?noue oethao i?ae aaoueeaie ae?oae iniiaii? a?oie neeaea 9
(5,0%) aeiaaee?a, a eiio?ieuei?e a?oi? 1 (0,6%) aeiaaeie. Na?aae 9
iiae?oaei?o

Oaaeeoey 6

Ii??aiyeueia /anoioa IA? o nean?a i?iaaiaea c iieieia?/iith iaoieia??th

? i?iaaiaeaAe?aaiic i?iaaiaeaNoaoue i?i-aaiaeaIA? o neana Noaoue
neanaNooi?iue nii??ae-iaiino?E?eue-e?noue n?iae1A?eaoa?aeueia
iao?iaeanoiia/iee?eioi?o?ci

aiiiae?y ?icaeoeo na/iaiaea/ie

ae?iiieiaeoee a?ao

iieiaeoa nano?a

12Aino?a e?ioiaeanoia eaeeai?yae?iaeaoaeo i?aeoeoii/eiai?
ia?aae?eee/ienoa?oee a?ao13Aino?a e?ioiaeanoia eaeeai?yae?ii?e?iaeaeaia
aaaea na?oeyae?inoa?oa nano?a14Aino?a i??eiaeanoia eaeeai?y/ieaiiiae?y
?icaeoeo oiieiai eeoa/ieea/ienoa?oee a?ao15Na?eiia TH?iaa a/aii?eeiai?
e?noee/iei?e?iaeaeaia aaiaia?iia aa?oiuei? aoae/ienoa?oee
a?ao16Iaaiaeaee?inueea e?ioiia /ieaiiiae?y ?icaeo-eo aeia/aaea?ae-ieo
oeyo?a/ienoa?oee a?ao17Iaaiaeaee?inueea e?ioiia /iei?e?iaeaeaiee aeaeo
e?aiai eoeueoiaiai noaeiaoae?inoa?oa nano?a18Iaaiaeaee?inueea e?ioiia,
i?e?iaeaeaia i?e?ioeaoae?y/iei?e?ioeaoae?yae?inoa?oa nano?a1

ia?, ye? aoee i?ae niaith /ioe?eth??aeieie (eiao?oe??io ?ia?eae?iao
1/29) aai i’yoeth??aeieie neanaie (eiao?oe??io ?ia?eae?iao 1/211),
oanoa?i iaee oai?eo

nei?a, o?i? aei/ie ?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie. Ne?ae cacia/eoe, ui na?aae
9 iiae?oaei?o ia?, ye? ? i?ae niaith aeaeaeeie ?iaee/aie (eiao?oe??io
?ia?eae?iao 1/211), aea? ia?e iaee ae?oae ?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie, ui
ii?aeioaaeeny ?c i?e?iaeaeaieie aaaeaie ?icaeoeo. Oea aoee oeii/eee c
iaaiaeaee?inueeith e?ioiiith oa i?e?iaeaeaiith e?aia?/iith e?eaioe?th, a
oaeiae iaaiaeaee?inueeith e?ioiiith oa i?e?iaeaeaiith i?e?ioeaoae??th.

Oeeoiaaiaoe/i? aeine?aeaeaiiy e?ioioeeo?a ia?eoa?e/ii? e?ia? 30 ae?oae
c aaiiaeanoicaie iieacaee, ui o 12 (40%) ae?oae aeyaeaii aiiiae??
ea??ioeio. E?euee?noue aeiaeaoeiaeo aiiiaeueieo eeii?a eieeaaeany a?ae
2% aei 20%. Aaa?aoe?? niinoa??aaeeny o 8 (26,7%) ae?oae. O 6 (20%)
ae?oae ii?yae c ii?ooaiiyi ea??ioeio (o?enii?y, iica?oeeci)
niinoa??aaeany iaoyaeai?noue a ?iaeiaiae?: IA? oa iieicaoai?thaaiiy o
aaouee?a aai ?iaee/?a.

Aiae?c iaino?oaeueii – ?ai?iaeoeoeaii? ooieoe?? o iaoa?ia, yei iathoue
aeioae ic ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie, iieacaa iiciie ii/aoie iaia?oa (iiney
1516 ?ieia) o ii?iaiyiii c eiio?ieueiith a?oiith (15,1% a iniiai?e i
2,2% o eiio?ieuei?e a?oiao (P<0,01)). Niinoa?iaa?oueny aeinoiai?ia ?icieoey (P<0,05) o iiaeiaaeaiie o?eaaeinoi iaino?oaeueiiai oeeeeo (iiiaae 6 aei?a) o 16,8% iaoa?ia, yei iathoue aeioae ic ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie. Na?aae iaoa??a eiio?ieueii? a?oie oaeeo ii?ooaiue ia aeyaeaii. Na?aae ae?iie, ye? iathoue ae?oae ?c ceiye?niith iooeeiith, niinoa??aaeiny ii?ooaiiy ?ai?iaeoeoeaii? ooieoe??: ia?oaiia?iaeaeaiiy, iaaee/i? aai?oe, ye? ia?aaeoaaee aeai?e aaa?oiino?. I?e ii??aiyii? ?c eiio?ieueiith a?oiith anoaiiaeaii, ui /anoioa naiia?eueieo aeeeaei?a ? o?eiano?o aeinoia??ii aeua a iniiai?e a?oi? (?<0,05). Aioaiaoaeueiee ia??iae aoa /ano?oa iaoyaeaiee o ae?oae ?c ceiye?nieie iooeeiaie (oieneeic, iao?iiao?y, a?ei, a??oni? oa ?io? ?ioaeoe??), ui aeinoia??ii a?ae??ciy?oueny a?ae eiio?ieueii? a?oie (?<0,05). Aiae?c i?ioan?eieo oe?aeeeainoae o iaoa??a i?iaaiae?a iniiaii? a?oie aeyaea, ui a iniiai?e a?oi? 95% iaoa??a i?aoethaaee o oe?aeeeaeo oiiaao i?aoe? (?en. 1). A ?acoeueoao? aiae?co i?ioan?eieo oe?aeeeainoae o aaouee?a, aeey iaoa??a i?iaaiae?a iniiaii? a?oie aeyaeaii, ui iae?noioi?oee ’ –––’ – ’ – ’––– ––– ’ –’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’ ’’ ’’ ’ ’ –’ —

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