I?I?NOA?NOAI INA?OE OE?A?IE

OA?E?ANUeEEE AeA?AEAAIEE AAOIIIA?EUeII-AeI?IAEI?E

OAOI?*IEE OI?AA?NEOAO

ss?auaiei Iaoaey Ay/aneaa?aia

OAeE 656.13.027

AeIAAINO?IEIAA I?IAIICOAAIIss

OAEAeEINOAE ?OOO IA AAOIIIA?EUeIEO AeI?IAAO

05.22.11 — Aaoiiia?euei? oeyoe oa aa?iae?iie

Aaoi?aoa?ao aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy

eaiaeeaeaoa oaoi?/ieo iaoe

Oa?e?a — 1999

Aeena?oaoe?y ? ?oeiienii

?iaioa aeeiiaia ia eaoaae?? aeooeaiue oa i?iaeooaaiiy aei??a
Oa?e?anueeiai aea?aeaaiiai aaoiiia?eueii-aei?iaeiueiai oaoi?/iiai
oi?aa?neoaoo

Iaoeiaee ea??aiee: aeieoi? oaoi?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?, caneoaeaiee ae?y/
iaoee ? oaoi?ee Oe?a?ie

Aaa?eeia Aaeoa?ae Aaneeueiae/

Oa?e?anueeee aea?aeaaiee aaoiiia?eueii-aei?iaei?e oaoi?/iee oi?aa?neoao,
i?i?aeoi? c iaoeiai? ?iaioe, caa?aeoaa/ eaoaae?ith aeooeaiue oa
i?iaeooaaiue aei??a

Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe: aeieoi? oaoi?/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?

A?eyoeinueeee Ieaenaiae? Aioiiiae/

Oe?a?inueeee o?ainii?oiee oi?aa?neoao, i.Ee?a

caa?aeoaa/ eaoaae?ith i?iaeooaaiiy aei??a;

eaiaeeaeao oaoi?/ieo iaoe, aeioeaio

I?onaiei ?aaai Aeieo?iae/, Oa?e?anueeee aea?aeaaiee
aaoiiia?eueii-aei?iaei?e oaoi?/iee oi?aa?neoao, caa?aeoaa/ eaoaae?ith
aoae?aieoeoaa oa aenieoaoaoe?? aei??a

I?ia?aeia onoaiiaa: Oa?e?anueea aea?aeaaia aeaaeai?y i?nueeiai
ainiiaea?noaa

Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny 7 aeiaoiy 1999 ?. i 1400 aiaeei? ia can?aeaii?
niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee E064.059.01 i?e Oa?e?anueeiio aea?aeaaiiio
aaoiiia?eueii-aei?iaeiueiio oaoi?/iiio oi?aa?neoao? ca aae?anith:
310002, Oa?e?a, aoe.Iao?ianueeiai 25.

C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoeny o a?ae?ioaoe? Oa?e?anueeiai
aea?aeaaiiai aaoiiia?eueii-aei?iaeiiai oaoi?/iiai oi?aa?neoaoo, ca
aae?anith: 310002, Oa?e?a, aoe.Iao?ianueeiai, 25.

Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaiee 1 aa?aniy 1999 ?.

A/aiee nae?aoa? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee

eaiaeeaeao oaoi?/ieo iaoe, aeioeaio Eini?i I.A.

CAAAEUeIA OA?AEOA?ENOEEA ?IAIOE

Anooi. Iaeaaaeeea?oith iaoith i?iaeooaaiiy aaoiiia?eueieo aei??a ?
iaa?oiooaaiiy ?ic?aooieiaeo oa?aeoa?enoee: ?ioaineaiino?, oaeaeeino?
?ooo oa iaaaioaaeaiue ia aei?iaei?e iaeya. Iiieeee a i?ecia/aii? oeeo
oa?aeoa?enoee caeeoathoueny ia aeanyoe??//y, aeeeeeath/e iaonoiai?
ao?aoe aaoiiia?eueiiai o?ainii?oo.

Aeooaeuei?noue oaie. Ia i?ioyc? aeae?eueeio aeanyoe??/ue iaoeiaoe? ?
i?aeoe/i? i?aoe?aieee caeiaeeny ieoaiiyie aecia/aiiy ia?niaeoeaiiai
ianyao aaioaaeiia?aaacaiue oa ?ioaineaiino? aei?iaeiueiai ?ooo.
Coneeeyie a/aieo IAAe?(OO), NithcAei?IAe?, OAeAAeOO, NeaAAeOO, OOO
noai?ai? iaoiaee, ye? aeicaieythoue c aeinoaoiueith aeey i?aeoe/ieo
oe?eae oi/i?noth ia?aaeaa/aoe iiaeeeao ?ioaineai?noue ?ooo a ?aeiiao c
?icaeiaiith aei?iaeiueith ia?aaeath ? o ciiao inaithaaieo ?aeiiao.
Anoaiiaeaiiy ca`yceo oaeaeeino? ?ooo c ?ioaineai?noth aeicaieeei ia
iniia? oeo aea iaoiae?a caaaa/aoe iiaeeeao oaeaee?noue ?ooo. I?e oeueiio
i?iaiic oaeaeeino? cae?enith?oueny o aeaa aoaie. Nii/aoeo i?iaiico?oueny
?ioaineai?noue ?ooo, a iio?i — oaeaee?noue ca i?iaiicii? ?ioaineaiino?,
neeaaeo ?ooo ? caaeaieo oaoi?/ieo oa?aeoa?enoee aei??a. Iiaeeea? ci?ie
oaoi?/ieo oa?aeoa?enoee aaoiiia?e?a, aaoiiia?eueieo aei??a oa
ineoieia?/ieo oa?aeoa?enoee ethaeeie ca i?iaiiciee ia??iae /ano ia
a?aoiaothoueny.

Cai?iiiiiaai? ??cieie aaoi?aie i?yi? iaoiaee i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae
?ooo a?oioothoueny ia noai? aeno?aiieyoe??, eio?a aeeth/a? aea/aiiy
?yae?a o /an?, noai?aieo c oii?yaeeiaaieo o /an? iaai??a ci?i
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo. Iaea?aeaiee iaa?? ai?ieneio?oueny yeith-eeaiiue
ooieoe??th. O ?acoeueoao? aeoiaeeoue aei?noei o?eniaaia iiaeaeue
o?aiaeo. Iaaeaia iiaeaeue aeno?aiieth?oueny ia iaeaooi?. I?e oeueiio
i?eionea?oueny, ui oa?aeoa?enoeee o?ainii?oii? nenoaie a iaeaooiueiio
aoaeooue oaeeie ae, ye ? o ieioeiio. A ae?eniino? oa?aeoa?enoeee
o?ainii?oii? nenoaie aacia?a?aii ci?iththoueny. Oiio c? ca?eueoaiiyi
ia??iaeo oia?aaeaeaiiy i?iaiico ??cei iaaea? eiai iaae?ei?noue.
Aiane?aeie ?nioth/? iaoiaee noathoue i?aeoe/ii iai?eaeaoieie aeey
aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy. I?iaeaia aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ia aaoiiia?eueieo aei?iaao caeeoa?oueny iaae??oaiith ?
aeooaeueiith.

Ca`ycie ?iaioe c iaoeiaeie i?ia?aiaie, ieaiaie, oaiaie. Aeena?oaoe?eia
?iaioa aeeiiaia a iaaeao eii?aeeiaoe?eiiai ieaio I?i?noa?noaa ina?oe
Oe?a?ie ii i?iaeai? “Iiaeaethaaiiy neeaaeieo nioe?aeueii-aeiiii?/ieo,
aeieia?/ieo ? oaoi?/ieo nenoai ia iniia? ia?niaeoeaieo ?ioi?iaoe?eieo
oaoiieia?e”, caoaa?aeaeaiith iaeacii ?37 a?ae 13.02.97 ?.

Iaoa ? caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy. Iaoith oeueiai aeine?aeaeaiiy ? ?ic?iaea
iaoiaeo aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ia
aaoiiia?eueieo aei?iaao. Aeey aeinyaiaiiy iinoaaeaii? iaoe ae??ooaaeeny
oae? caaea/?:

?ic?iaeoe iiaeae? aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo;

?ic?iaeoe iiaeaeue aaiethoe?? nenoaie “ethaeeia-aaoiiia?eue-na?aaeiaeua
?ooo” (EAN?);

aecia/eoe ia?aiao?e iiaeaeae;

ioe?ieoe aaeaeaaoi?noue iiaeaeae;

?ic?iaeoe iaoiaeeee, aeai??oie ? oaenoe i?ia?ai aeey IAII ii
aeiaaino?ieiaiio i?iaiicoaaiith oaeaeeinoae ?ooo.

Iaoeiaa iiaecia iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a iieyaa? o oiio, ui aia?oa o
i?aeoeoe? iaa?oiooaaiiy ?ic?aooieiaeo oa?aeoa?enoee aei??a canoiniaaii
iaoiae aaiethoe?eii-a??ia?aei?niiai iiaeaethaaiiy, aeicaieyth/ee
a?aoiaoaaoe ye?ni? ci?ie o?ainii?oii? nenoaie o ia??iae? /ano, ui
i?iaiico?oueny.

I?aeoe/ia cia/aiiy iaea?aeaieo ?acoeueoao?a aeine?aeaeaiiy iieyaa? o
?ice?eoo? noo? caeiiii??iinoae e?euee?nieo ? ye?nieo ci?i o noaiao
eiiiiiaio?a o?ainii?oii? nenoaie, ui aeicaieeei ?ic?iaeoe iaoiaeieia?th
aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy ?ic?aooieiaeo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo
aaoiiia?e?a (aeei?enoiaoaaieo i?e i?iaeooaaii? aaoiiia?eueieo aei??a),
eiino?oeoeaieo oaeaeeinoae eaaeiaeo ? aaioaaeieo aaoiiia?e?a, noni?eueii
— iaiao?aeii? oaeaeeino? aeey aaioaaeieo oa ianaaee?nueeeo ia?aaacaiue.
Iaaeaii i?iaiic aeacaieo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo aei 2030 ?ieo.

Ai?iaaoe?y ?iaioe. Iniiai? iieiaeaiiy aeena?oaoe?? aeiiia?aeaeenue:

— ia iaoeiai-oaoi?/ieo eiioa?aioe?yo OAeAAeOO, 1991-1999 ??., i.Oa?e?a;

— ia ?anioae?eainuee?e eiioa?aioe?? “Iooe iiauoaiey yooaeoeaiinoe
aei?iaeiiai oicyenoaa Oe?aeiu a iiauo oneiaeyo oicyenoaiaaiey”, 1994 ?.,
i.Ee?a;

— ia i?aeia?iaei?e eiioa?aioe?? “I?iaeaie ?acaeoey aaoio?ainii?oa e
o?aiceoiuo eiiioieeaoeee a Oeaio?aeueii-Aceaoneii ?aaeiia”, 1996 ?.,
i.Oaoeaio);

— ia i?aeia?iaei?e eiioa?aioe?? “Y?aiiiieea ia aaoiiiaeeueiii
o?ainii?oa”, 1997 ?., i.Oa?e?a;

Ioae?eaoe??. Ci?no ?iaioe iioae?eiaaii o o?ueio noaooyo oa o?ueio oacao
aeiiia?aeae ia eiioa?aioe?yo.

Iniaenoee aianie aaoi?a iieyaa? o ?ic?iaoe? iaoaiaoe/ii? iiaeae?
aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN? [1], ?ic?iaoe? iiaeae? i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae
[2,3,5,6]. Aaoi?ii aeena?oaoe?eiiai aeine?aeaeaiiy aeeiiaiee aanue
eiiieaen ?ia?o ii cae?aiith aenia?eiaioaeueieo aeaieo, ?o ia?iaoe?,
aiae?co ? oi?ioethaaiith aeniiae?a [4,7].

No?oeoo?a ? ianya aeena?oaoe??. Aeena?oaoe?y neeaaea?oueny c? anooio,
/ioe?ueio ?icae?e?a, aeniiae?a, nieneo aeei?enoaieo aeaea?ae oa aeaio
aeiaeaoe?a. Iiaiee ianya aeena?oaoe?? i?noeoue 160 noi??iie, na?aae ieo
114 noi??iee oaenoo, 24 ?enoiee, 17 oaaeeoeue, 13 noi??iie aeiaeaoe?a oa
102 iaeiaioaaiiy e?oa?aoo?e.

INIIAIEE CI?NO ?IAIOE

O ia?oiio ?icae?e? ?icaeyiooi noai ieoaiiy. Iienaii ?nioth/? iaoiaee
i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo. Iniiaia i?noea caeiathoue
aeno?aiieyoe?ei?. O i?aeoeoe? i?iaiicoaaiiy ye iiaeae? o?aiaeo
aeei?enoiaothoue e?i?eio, eaaae?aoe/io, nooiaiaao, iieacieeiao,
aeiiiaioe?eio, eia?/io ooieoe?th oa eoa?/i? nieaeie. I?eeeaaeaie oaeeo
iiaeaeae iiaeooue aooe iiaeae? O.Aa?caey, A.Oaeia?a, Ae.Ioa?ue?. Aeai?
iiaeae? iathoue aei?noei o?eniaai? o?aiaee, ia aeicaieythoue aiae?coaaoe
i?e/eie ci?ie oaeaeeinoae ?ooo, iathoue iecueeo iaae?ei?noue i?iaiico c?
ca?eueoaiiyi ia??iaeo oia?aaeaeaiiy.

Iiooe oaeoi??a, aieeaath/eo ia oaeaee?noue ?ooo, aeicaieea anoaiiaeoe,
ui aaaeeea?oei c ieo ? ?ioaineai?noue ?ooo. Oeueiio ia?o? iaoaiaoe/i?
iiaeae? — oea iaeiioaeoi?i? ?aa?an?ei? iiaeae? ca`yceo oaeaeeino? c
?ioaineai?noth ?ooo (E.A.E??iaeo, TH.N.E?eeia, A.A.N?eueyiia,
?.I.?iiaiaiei). A iiaeaeueoiio aoee cai?iiiiiaai? aaaaoioaeoi?i?
?aa?an?ei? iiaeae?, ui a?aoiaothoue aieea ia oaeaee?noue ?ooo
iiacaeiaaeiueiai iaoeeo aei?iae, oe?eie i?i?aeaeaei? /anoeie,
?ioaineaiino? ? neeaaeo ?ooo, a?aenoai? aeaeeiino? i?i?aeaeaei? /anoeie,
noaio aei?iaeiueiai iie?eooy, e?eaeie o?ane, e?eueeino? ia?ao?anoue ?
ianaeaieo ioieo?a, iiaiaeii-ee?iaoe/ieo oiia ? o.?i. (I.I.Aaneeue?a,
A.A.Eaoe, A.I.?ani?eia, Ae.?.?aniyinueeee, A.A.Noni?oeei).

I?iaiic oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ia iniia? iaeiioaeoi?ieo oa aaaaoioaeoi?ieo
?aa?an?eieo iiaeaeae oaeiae iaaeinoaoiuei iaae?eiee, ine?eueee a ieo ia
a?aoiaothoueny aeani? oaiaeaioe?? ?icaeoeo oaeoi?a-ooieoe?? oa
oaeoi??a-a?aoiaio?a. Ie??i oeueiai, a oeeo iiaeaeyo i?eionea?oueny
??aiioe?ii?noue aeo?aeii? ?ioi?iaoe??, oiaoi ii/aoeiaeo cia/aiue
oaeoi??a.

I?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo, ui a?oioo?oueny ia ?ic?iaoe?
iaoaiaoe/ieo iiaeaeae ?ooo ie?aieo aaoiiia?e?a ? o?ainii?oiiai iioieo
(A.A.Aacai?iaeiaa, A.A.Aaa?eeia, A.A.Aaa?eeia, A.A.A?aaeaneoe,
A.I.?aaiia, A.A.N?eueyiia A.A.O?e?iia, A.ssioa), oaeiae aeyaeeinue
iai?eaeaoiei aeey aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiico. Aeai? iiaeae? ii noo? ?
iiaeaeyie ooieoe?thaaiiy, a ia ?icaeoeo o?ainii?oii? nenoaie ? oiio ia
iiaeooue aeei?enoiaoaaoeny aeey aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy.

Iaaaaeaiee aiae?c noaio ieoaiiy aeicaieea noi?ioethaaoe iaoo oa caaea/?
iiaeaeueoeo aeine?aeaeaiue.

O ae?oaiio ?icae?e? aeena?oaoe?? iaaaaeai? oai?aoe/ia iiaeaeue
i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo, iiaeaeue aaiethoe?? nenoaie
“ethaeeia-aaoiiia?eue-na?aaeiaeua ?ooo” o caieiaiiio noai?, ioe?iea
ia?aiao??a iiaeaeae.

I?iaiic oaeaeeino? i?iiiio?oueny cae?enithaaoe ca oi?ioeith

V(t) = V0q(t) + VcP(t), (1)

aea V(t) — i?iaiiciaaia oaeaee?noue ?ooo a iiiaio /ano t;

V0 — oaeaee?noue ?ooo i?e t=0;

Vc — oaeaee?noue ?ooo i?e caaeaiiio noai? nenoaiu EAN?;

P(t) — a??ia?aei?noue ia?aoiaeo nenoaie a caaeaiee noai;

q(t) — a??ia?aei?noue oiai, ui nenoaia EAN? ia ia?aeoea a caaeaiee
noai;

q(t) = 1 — P(t).

I?ae caaeaiei noaiii ?icoi??oueny noai ii?ie, oiaoi noai, yeee a
iaea?eueoiio nooiai? a?aeiia?aea? (aaeaeaaoiee) oe?eyi ? caaea/ai
ooieoe?thaaiiy nenoaie a aeaieo oiiaao.

Noai eiiiiiaio?a ? nenoaie o oe?eiio i?iiiio?oueny iienoaaoe ca
aeiiiiiaith aaniethoii? i?aai?caoe??. A caieiaiiio noai? nenoaie
aaniethoia i?aai?caoe?y ?? eiiiiiaio?a aecia/a?oueny ca oi?ioeith

Qi = 1+ Pi log2Pi + (1-Pi) log2(1-Pi), (2)

aea Qi — aaniethoia i?aai?caoe?y ?-ai eiiiiiaioa nenoaie;

Pi — a??ia?aei?noue ia?aoiaeo i-ai eiiiiiaioa nenoaie c oaeoe/iiai
noaio aei noaio ii?ie.

O a?aeiia?aeiino? aei i?eioeeio “iaiao?aeii? i?aai?caoe??”
TH.A.Aioiiiiiaa aaeaeaaoi?noue eiiiiiaio?a nenoaie EAN? oe?eyi oa
caaea/ai ooieoe?thaaiiy a aeaiiio na?aaeiaeu? anoaiiaeth?oueny i?e
aeeiiaii? oiiae

Qi = Qna?.i, (3)

aea Qna?.i — aaniethoia i?aai?caoe?y ciai?oiueiai na?aaeiaeua aeey i-ai
eiiiiiaioa nenoaie.

Ioaea, aeey iniiaieo eiiiiiaio?a nenoaie EAN? ??aiyiiy noaoe/ii?
??aiiaaae iaaoaathoue aeaeyaeo

Qna?.e — Qe = 0,

Qna?.a — Qa = 0, (4)

Qna?.ae — Qae = 0,

aea Qe, Qa, Qae — aaniethoi? i?aai?caoe?? ethaeeie, aaoiiia?ey oa
aei?iae a?aeiia?aeii;

Qna?.e, Qna?.a, Qna?.ae — aaniethoi? i?aai?caoe?? ciai?oiueiai
na?aaeiaeua aeey ethaeeie, aaoiiia?ey oa aei?iae a?aeiia?aeii.

I?e ii?ooaii? ??aiiaaae aaniethoia i?aai?caoe?y ?-ai eiiiiiaioo nenoaie
ci?ith?oueny ia aaee/eio dQi ca aeaiaioa?iee ?ioa?aae /ano dt. Oiio
oiiae aeeiai?/ii? ??aiiaaae eiiiiiaio?a nenoaie EAN? iiaeia caienaoe oae

dQe/dt = Qna?.e — DQe,

dQa/dt = Qna?.a — DQa, (5)

dQae/dt = Qna?.ae — DQae.

I?ney ?iceeaaeaiiy i?e?iuaiue aaniethoii? i?aai?caoe?? ?-ai eiiiiiaioa
a ?yaee Iaeei?aia ? iiaeaeueoi? e?iaa?ecaoe?? ??aiyiiy aeeiai?/ii?
??aiiaaae eiiiiiaio?a nenoaie EAN? iaaoaathoue aeaeyaeo

dDPe/dt — [(Ka(1)DPa + Kae(1)DPae) — DPe] = beDPn ue

c

dDPa/dt — [(Ke(2)DP/ + Ke(2)DPae) — DPa] = baDPn y, (6)

c

dDPae/dt — [(Ke(3)DPe + Ka(3)DPa) — DPae] = baeDPn th

aea DPe, DPa, DPae — i?e?iuaiiy a??ia?aeiinoae ia?aoiaeo ethaeeie,
aaoiiia?ey oa aei?iae a?aeiia?aeii c oaeoe/iiai a caaeaiee noai;

Ka(1) = ga /(ga + gae + gn), Kae(1) = gae /(ga + gae + gn), Kn(1) = gn
/(ga + gae + gn),

Ke(2) = ge /(ge + gae + gn), Kae(2) = gae /(ge + gae + gn), Kn(2) = gn
/(ge + gae + gn),

Ke(3) = ge /(ge + ga + gn), Ka(3) = ga /(ge + ga + gn), Kn(3) = gn /(ge
+ ga + gn);

Ea(1) + Eae(1) + En(1) = 1, Ee(2) + Eae(2) + En(2) = 1, Ee(3) + Ea(3) +
En(3) = 1;

be = Kc(1)[logPc — log(1-Pc)]/ [logPe — log(1-Pe)] = const;

ba = Kc(2)[logPc — log(1-Pc)]/ [logPa — log(1-Pa)] = const; (7)

bae = Kc(3)[logPc — log(1-Pc)]/ [logPae — log(1-Pae)] = const;

aea ge, ga, gae, gn — aei?noeino? ii?i aaniethoii? i?aai?caoe?? aeey
ethaeeie, aaoiiia?ey, aei?iae oa na?aaeiaeua a?aeiia?aeii.

AEi?noeino? ii?i aaniethoii? i?aai?caoe?? aecia/athoueny iaoiaeii
aeaoi?ioaaiiy oe?eueiaeo ianoaiiaeaiue A.A.Aaa?eeiaa.

Ie?aiee ?ica`ycie nenoaie ??aiyiue aeeiai?/ii? ??aiiaaae eiiiiiaio?a
nen-oaie EAN? ca t=tc, DPe=1-DPe0, DPa = 1-DPa0, DPae = 1- DPae0
caieno?oueny o aeaeyae?:

DPe = C0(el1t — el1tc) + eat[C1cosbt + C2sinbt] — eatc [C1cosbtc +
C2sinbtc] + (1 — Pe0);

DPa = M0C0el1t + C1eat[M1cosbt — M2sinbt] +C2eat[M2cosbt + M1sinbt] —
M0C0el1tc

— C1eatc[M1cosbtc — M2sinbtc] — C2eatc [M2cosbtc + M1sinbtc + (1 —
Pa0)]; (8)

DPae = N0C0el1t + C1eat[N1cosbt + N2sinbt] +C2eat[-N2cosbt + N1sinbt] —
N0C0el1tc

— C1eatc[N1cosbtc + N2sinbtc] — C2eatc [-N2cosbtc + N1sinbtc + (1 —
Pae0)];

aea tc — eaa caieiaiiai noaio nenoaie;

N0, N1, N2, M0, M1, M2 — iino?ei? eiao?oe??ioe;

l — ae?eniee ei??iue oa?aeoa?enoe/iiai ??aiyiiy;

a — ae?enia /anoeia eiiieaenii-ni?yaeaieo ei?ai?a;

b — e?oaiaa /anoioa eieeaaiue;

C0, C1, C2 — aeia?euei? noae?, ye? aecia/athoueny c ii/aoeiaeo oiia:

ca t= 0, DPe = 0, DPa= 0, DPae = 0.

Ia?aiao?aie iiaeae? i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ia aaoiiia?eueieo
aei?iaao ? ii/aoeiaa ? e?ioeaaa oaeaeeino? V0 oa Vc.

Ii/aoeiao oaeaee?noue ?ooo i?iiiio?oueny aecia/aoe ye ?iaeea?aeoaeueio
ii?io oaeaeeino? ii A.A.Aaa?eeiao

Vi = V0 = (Via ma +Vin mn) / (ma + mn), (9)

aea Vi — eiaeea?aeoaeueia ii?ia oaeaeeino? ?ooo;

Via, Vin — ooieoe?iiaeuei? ii?ie oaeaeeinoae ?ooo aeey iioea?a aaciaee
? naiaiaee ae?e aiae?y a?aeiia?aeii;

ma, mn — aei?noeino? (eiao?oe??ioe aaae) ii?i Via e Vin a?aeiia?aeii.

E?ioeaao oaeaee?noue aeioe?eueii i?eeiyoe ??aiith ooieoe?iiaeuei?e ii?i?
oaeaeeino? ?ooo aeey iioeao naiaiaee ae?e aiae?y, ine?eueee i?aaiaiiy
aei iacaeaaeiino? a?ae ?ioeo aiae??a ? ooiaeaiaioaeueiei i?eioeeiii
iiaaae?iee ethaeeie, oiaoi

Vc = Vin. (10)

I?iaiic oaeoe/ieo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ia aaoiiia?eueieo aei?iaao aeicaiey?
i?ae?eoe aei ae??oaiiy caaea/? i?iaiicoaaiiy noni?eueii iaiao?aeii?
oaeaeeino? ?ooo. A?aeiia?aeii aei aeine?aeaeaiue A.A.Aaa?eeiaa,
?.A.E?iiee i?ae noni?eueii iaiao?aeiith oaeaee?noth ne?ae ?icoi?oe
oaeaee?noue ?ooo, ui caaacia/o? ia?aaacaiiy iio??aii? noni?euenoao
e?eueeino? aaioaae?a oa ianaaee??a c iaeiaioeie aeo?aoaie aano?aeoii?
i?aoe? aiae??a.

Caaea/a a?aeooeaiiy noni?eueii iaiao?aeii? oaeaeeino? ?ooo
cia?aaeo?oueny ye caaea/a iioei?caoe??

U( ( min,

I

S Wii = R, (11)

i=1

aea Wii — iaiao?aeia i?iaeoeoeai?noue ae?yeueiino? i-ai aiae?y

Wii = ViiPvi;

Vii — iaiao?aeia oaeaee?noue ?ooo i-ai aiae?y;

Pvi — a??ia?aei?noue oo?eiaiiy oaeaeeino? Vi o caaeaiiio ?ioa?aae?
/ano;

R — iaiao?aeia i?iaeoeoeai?noue ae?yeueiino? a?oie c I aiae??a;

U( — noia?iee ineo?/iee i?eion a?oie c I aiae??a,

I I

US= (1/2)S mi (Wii — Wii)2 + (1/2)S mi (Wii — Wai)2;

i=1 i=1

Wii, Wai — ?iaeea?aeoaeueia oa a?oiiaa ii?ie i?iaeoeoeaiino? i-ai
aiae?y;

mi — aei?noe?noue ii?ie Wii.

?ica`ycie caaea/? iioei?caoe?? iaoiaeii iaaecia/aieo eiao?oe??io?a
Eaa?aiaea aea? ioe?ieo noni?eueii iaiao?aeii? oaeaeeino? ?ooo i-ai
aiae?y o aeaeyae?

, (12)

.

I?e i?iaiicoaaii? noni?eueii iaiao?aeii? oaeaeeino? ?ooo, ye ? o
iiia?aaeiueiio aeiaaeeo, a ii/aoeiaee iiiaio /ano Vi? aecia/a?oueny c
oiia

Vi? = Vi0?, Vai = Vai0,

aea Vi0?, Vai0 — ?iaeea?aeoaeueia ? a?oiiaa ii?ie oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ca
t=0.

E?ioeaaa noni?eueii iaiao?aeia oaeaee?noue ?ooo aecia/a?oueny c oiiae

I

ca t=tc Vi? = Vin?, Vca = Vai = SVinidi,

i=1

aea di — aeiey aiae??a, ye? iathoue ooieoe?iiaeueio ii?io oaeaeeino?
aeey iioeao naiaiaee ae??, ui aei??aith? Vini.

O o?aoueiio ?icae?e? iaaaaeai? ?acoeueoaoe aeine?aeaeaiiy
caeiiii??iinoae aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN? oa iaaaaeaii ioe?iee ia?aiao??a
iiaeae? i?iaiicoaaiiy. ?noi?e/iee aiae?c aeeiai?ee eiino?oeoeaieo
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ?aei?aeii-aiii/ieo aaoiiia?e?a, na??eieo eaaeiaeo oa
aaioaaeieo aaoiiia?e?a, ?ic?aooieiaeo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo, aeei?enoiaoaaieo
aeey i?iaeooaaiiy aei?ia, iieacaa, ui o i?ioean? aaiethoe?? nenoaia EAN?
i?ioiaeeoue o?e aoaie. Eiaeiee aoai aeeth/a? ii o?e ia??iaee caieiaiiai
(a i?aai?caoe?eiiio a?aeiioaii?) ? ?ic?ieiaiiai noai?a. O ?ic?ieiaiiio
noai? ci?ith?oueny iaeneiaeueia aio?ii?y nenoaie ca ?aooiie i?e?aeiaiiy
aei nai?? no?oeoo?e aeaiaio?a iaaeieeoiueiai na?aaeiaeua. Oaeiio noaio
a?aeiia?aeathoue ia??iaee noaa?e?caoe?? eiino?oeoeaieo oaeaeeinoae. A
caieiaiiio (cae?eoiio) noai? iaeneiaeueia aio?ii?y nenoaie cinoa?oueny
iaci?iiith. Aaiethoe?y nenoaie o iueiio eaea ca ?aooiie oi?ioaaiiy
aeaoa?i?i?cio a?aeiioaiue i?ae ?? eiiiiiaioaie. Oaeiio noaio nenoaie
a?aeiia?aeathoue ia??iaee no?eeiai c?inoaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo.

O?eaae?noue ia??iae?a caieiaiiai noaio a iaaeao eiaeiiai aoaio
aaiethoe?? nenoaie ciaioo?oueny, a ?ic?ieiaiiai ca?eueoo?oueny a
a?aeiia?aeiino? aei a?eoiaoe/ii? i?ia?an??.

On+1=On/2,

tm+1=2tm, (13)

aea O — o?eaae?noue ia??iaeo caieiaiiai noaio;

t — o?eaae?noue ia??iaeo ?ic?ieiaiiai noaio;

n, m — iiia?e ia??iae?a caieiaiiai ? ?ic?ieiaiiai noai?a ia aeaiiio
aoai? aaiethoe?? nenoaie.

Aiaeia?/ii ci?iththoueny ia?o? ia??iaee caieiaiiai noaio nenoaie i?e
ia?aoiae? a?ae aoaio aei aoaio

Tk+1(1) = Tk(1)/2, (14)

aea k — iiia? oeeeeo aaiethoe??;

(1) — ?iaeaen ia?oiai ia??iaeo a aoai?.

Ia?o? ia??iaee ?ic?ieiaiiai noaio nenoaie i?e ia?aoiae? a?ae aoaio aei
aoaio aaiethoe?? oaeiae ciaioothoueny

tk+1(1) = tk(1)/2. (15)

Eiao?oe??io i?e?inoo eiino?oeoeaieo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo na??eieo
aaoiiia?e?a ciaioo?oueny i?e ia?aoiae? aei iine?aeiaieo ia??iae?a
caieiaiiai noaio ia eiaeiiio aoai? aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN? o
a?aeiia?aeiino? aei oi?ioe

1-e aoai

Ke = 6 — 3,321425(n-1) + 0,5357195(n-1)2,

2-e aoai (16)

Ke = 3 — 2,125213(n-1) + 0,6251012(n-1)2,

3-e aoai

Ke = 1,5 — 0,3125076(n-1) + 0,06250393(n-1)2,

aea Kk= Vik /V0k;

V0k, Vik — eiino?oeoeai? oaeaeeino? ia ii/aoeo ? a e?ioe? ia??iaeo
caieiaiiai noaio.

Eiao?oe??io i?e?inoo eiino?oeoeaii? oaeaeeino? a ia??iaee ?ic?ieiaiiai
noaio nenoaie EAN? c?inoa? o a?aeiia?aeiino? aei oi?ioee

Ke = 1 + 0,0075 m,

Oey caeiiii??i?noue caa??aa?oueny ia an?o aoaiao aaiethoe?? nenoaie
EAN?.

Aii???/iee ca`ycie eiao?oe??ioa i?e?iuaiiy ?ic?aooieiai? oaeaeeino? c
iiia?ii caieiaiiai ia??iaeo ia aeaiiio aoai? aaiethoe?? nenoaie
iiaea?ouey a oaeiio aeaeyae?

Ke = 1,5 — 0,3125076(n-1) + 0,06250393(n-1)2. (17)

*a?ac oa ui ii?iaoeae ia aoae?aieoeoai aaoiiia?eueieo aei?ia aaiaeyoueny
aeae?aoeaii, oi a ia??iae ?o ae?? ?ic?aooieia? oaeaeeino? ia
ci?iththoueny. A?aeiia?aeii, a ia??iae ?ic?ieiaiiai noaio nenoaie EAN?
eiao?oe??io i?e?inoo ?ic?aooieiaeo oaeaeeinoae ia ci?ith?oueny ?
aei??aith? iaeeieoe?.

E?euee?ni? ioe?iee eaa?a noaio oa eiao?oe??io?a i?e?inoo eiino?oeoeaieo
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo aaoiiia?e?a iaaaaeai? o oaae. 1.

Aeine?aeaeaiiyie aeiaaaeaii, ui na?aaeiueicaaaeai? eiino?oeoeai?
oaeaeeino? na??eieo eaaeiaeo aaoiiia?e?a i?eeiathoueny ca ?ic?aooieia?
i?e i?iaeooaaii? aaoiiia?eueieo aei?ia.

O eiaeiiio ia??iae? caieiaiiai noaio nenoaie EAN? e?ioeaaa oaeaee?noue,
c yeith i?aaia ?ooaoeny aiae?e, aei??aith? 2/3 a?ae e?ioeaai?
eiino?oeoeaii? oaeaeeino? ?ooo aaoiiia?ey.

Oaaeeoey 1

Oa?aeoa?enoeee aeeiai?/ieo ?yae?a eiino?oeoeaieo oaeaeeinoae

?ooo aaoiiia?e?a ia ??cieo aoaiao aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN?

Iiia? aoaio Noai nenoaie Ia??iae noaio, ?iee Eaa noaio, ?ie?a
Eiao?oe??io i?e-?inoo oaeaeeino?

I caieiaiee 1725-1773 48 6,0

?ic?ieiaiee 1773-1785 12 1,0075

caieiaiee 1785-1809 24 3,0

?ic?ieiaiee 1809-1833 24 1,015

caieiaiee 1833-1845 12 1,5

?ic?ieiaiee 1845-1893 48 1,0225

c o?aooaaiiyi cai?a ?eoio ?ic?ieiaiee 1917-1929 6 1,0075

caieiaiee 1929-1941 12 1,5

?ic?ieiaiee 1941-1960 12 1,015

caieiaiee 1960-1966 6 1,25

?ic?ieiaiee 1966-1990 24 1,0225

III caieiaiee 1990-2002 12 1,5

?ic?ieiaiee 2002-2005 3 1,0075

caieiaiee 2005-2011 6 1,25

?ic?ieiaiee 2011-2017 6 1,015

caieiaiee 2017-2020 3 1,125

?ic?ieiaiee 2020-2032 12 1,0225

O o?aoueiio ?icae?e? aeena?oaoe?? aecia/a?oueny aaeaeaaoi?noue iiaeae?
aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN?. Anoaiiaeaii, ui aaaia? eiao?oe??ioe o oi?ioeao
(7) ciaoiaeyoueny o ni?aa?aeiioaiiyo, ca yeeo i?ia?aeiee eiiiiiaio a
aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN? ia? 2/3 aieeaiaino?. Aeoiaey/e c oeeo
i??eoaaiue, ?ic?aooiie a??ia?aeiinoae P(t) ca oi?ioeaie (8) aeeiioaaany
ca oaeeie cia/aiiyie eiao?oe??io?a iiaeae?:

KA(1) = 0,6666; KAe(1) = 0,1666; KN(1) = 0,1666;

Ke(2) = 0,1666; KAe(2) = 0,6666; KN(2) = 0,1666;

Ke(3) = 0,6666; KA(3) = 0,1666; KN(3) = 0,1666;

l = — 0,1667453; a = -1,4166274; b = 0,4330125;

M0 = 1,000031; N0 = 1,000204;

M1 = -0,5004186; N1 = -0,499944;

M2 = 0,866039; N2 = 0,8660816.

Aeia?euei? noae? iaoaiaoe/ii? iiaeae? aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN? iaaaaeai?
o oaae.2.

Oaaeeoey 2

Aeia?euei? noae? iaoaiaoe/ii? iiaeae?

Iicia/aiiy aeia?eueieo O?eaae?noue ia??iaeo caieiaiiai noaio,
e?euee?noue ?ie?a

noaeeo 3 6 12 24 48

C0 -2,559036 -1,55717015 -1,156256 -1,018542 -1,00025598

C1 -0,000080 -0,00007848 -0,00007831 -0,00007839 -0,0000781

C2 0,58112611 0,5773139 0,577403 0,5774028 0,577403

Aeinoia??i?noue a?aei?iiinoae i?ae aii??e/ieie oa oai?aoe/ieie
cia/aiiyie a??ia?aeiinoae, ye? ?icaeyaeathoueny, ioe?ithaaeanue ca
iaoiaeii ia?ieo ii??aiyiue ca aeiiiiiaith t-e?eoa??th Nouethaeaioa aeey
??aiy cia/ouino? P=0,05, oaae.3.

Oaaeeoey3

Ioe?iea aeinoia??iino? a?aei?iiinoae aii??e/ieo oa oai?aoe/ieo cia/aiue

a??ia?aeiinoae ia?aoiaeo nenoaie c oaeoe/iiai o caaeaiee noai

Ia??iae caieiaiiai noaio, ?iee *enei nooiai?a naiaiaee ?ic?aooieiaa
cia/aiiy t-e?eoa??th Oaaee/ia cia-/aiiy t-e?eoa-??th aeey P=0,05
Aeinoia??i?noue a?aei?iiino?

1893-1917 23 0,9414084 2,069 iaaeinoia??ii

1929-1941 11 0,5883815 2,201 iaaeinoia??ii

1960-1966 5 0,0396013 2,571 iaaeinoia??ii

Aeai? oaae.3 na?ae/aoue i?i oa, ui oi?ioee (8) iiaeooue ?icaeyaeaoeny ye
oai?aoe/ia i?aaenoaaeaiiy aeina?aeo.

Ana aeuaaeeeaaeaia aeicaieeei aeaoe i?eeeaae aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiico
eiino?oeoeaieo oa ?ic?aooieiaeo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo, ?en.1,2.

Aeey ioe?iee iaae ?ico?oao i?iaiico aeei?enoiaoaaeanue oi?ioea
?.I.*aoe?e?ia

_

et i?iai = et[(N+1)/N + 3(N + 2T — 1)2/{N(N2 — 1)}]1/2, (18)

;

T — aaee/eia ia??iaeo oia?aaeaeaiiy, ui ioe?ith?oueny /eneii ia?aoei?a
ca`yceo V = f(t) o ia?aaeaa/oaaiiio ia??iae?;

— na?aaei? cia/aiiy aeiaaeeiai? eiiiiiaioe i?ioeano c iayaii? aea??ee
ia?aoei?a ca`yceo V = f(t);

et i?iai — iieiaeia ?ioa?aaeo aeia??e ?iceeaeo na?aaeiueiai ?acoeueoaoo
aeey ia??iaeo i?iaiico.

Aa?oiy iaaea ei?eaei?o aeia??e iiaea ?icaeyaeaoeny ye iioei?noe/iee
i?iaiic oaeaeeino?, a ieaeiy — ye ianei?noe/iee.

*aoaa?oee ?icae?e aeena?oaoe?? i?enay/aii i?iiiceoe?yi uiaei i?aeoe/iiai
aeei?enoaiiy ?acoeueoao?a aeine?aeaeaiiy. Aeeiiai? aeine?aeaeaiiy
aeicaieeee cai?iiiioaaoe iaoiaeeee aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy:
eiino?oeoeaieo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo na??eieo aaoiiia?e?a; ?ic?aooieiaeo
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo aeey i?iaeooaaiiy aaoiiia?eueieo aei?ia; oaeoe/ieo
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ?ic?aooieiaiai aaoiiia?ey; na?aaeiuei? oaeaeeino? ?ooo
o?ainii?oiiai iioieo; noni?eueii iaiao?aeii? oaeaeeino?. Oaeiae
?ic?iaeaii aeai?eoi ? oaeno i?ia?aie aeey IAII ii ?ic?aooieao
a??ia?aeiinoae ia?aoiaeo eiiiiiaio?a nenoaie EAN? c oaeoe/iiai o
caaeaiee noai.

Caaaeuei? aeniiaee ca ?acoeueoaoaie aeine?aeaeaiiy. Aeeiiai? oai?aoe/i?
oa aenia?eiaioaeuei? aeine?aeaeaiiy aeicaieeee c?iaeoe oae? aeniiaee:

1. Ia iniia? aiae?co ?noi??? ?icaeoeo aaoiiia?eueiiai o?ainii?oo
iaa?oioiaaia noaia eaaiooaaiiy /ano ?nioaaiiy nenoaie EAN?. Aecia/ai?
aoaie oa ia??iaee ?icaeoeo ?? eiiiiiaio?a, anoaiiaeaii eaae noai?a ?
o?aiaee aaiethoe?? nenoaie EAN? o caieiaiiio noai?, iaaeaii ioe?ieo
eiao?oe??io?a ?ooo na??eieo aaoiiia?e?a ia ??cieo aoaiao aaiethoe??.
Aeiaaaeaii iayai?noue aca?iica`yceo i?ae oaeaeeinoyie ?ooo
?aei?aeii-aiii/ieo, na??eieo aaoiiia?e?a oa ?ic?aooieiaith oaeaee?noth,
aeei?enoiaoaaiith aeey i?iaeooaaiiy aei??a.

2. Aia?oa o i?aeoeoe? iaa?oiooaaiiy ?ic?aooieiaeo oa?aeoa?enoee
aaoiiia?eueieo aei??a canoiniaaii iaoiae aaiethoe?eii-a??ia?aei?niiai
iiaeaethaaiiy, ui aeicaiey? a?aooaaoe ye?ni? ci?ie o?ainii?oii? nenoaie
a ia??iae? /ano, yeee i?iaiico?oueny.

3. Cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiaeeee, aeai?eoie ? oaenoe i?ia?ai aeey IAII ii
aeiaaino?ieiaiio i?iaiicoaaiith: eiino?oeoeaieo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo
na??eieo aaoiiia?e?a; ?ic?aooieiaeo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo aeey ?ic?iaee iiaeo
ii?iaoea?a oa oaoi?ei-aeiiii?/ieo ?ic?aooie?a i?e i?iaeooaaii?
aaoiiia?eueieo aei??a ? o?ainii?oieo ei?eaei??a Oe?a?ie; oaeoe/ieo
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ?ic?aooieiaiai aaoiiia?ey; na?aaeiuei? oaeaeeino? ?ooo
o?ainii?oiiai iioieo; noni?eueii iaiao?aeii? oaeaeeino?.

4. Iaaeaii aeiaaino?ieiaee i?iaiic eiino?oeoeaieo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo
eaaeiaeo oa aaioaaeieo aaoiiia?e?a, ?ic?aooieiaeo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo aeey
i?iaeooaaiiy aaoiiia?eueieo aei?ia, oaeoe/ieo oaeaeeinoae ?ooo
?ic?aooieiaiai aaoiiia?ey. Anoaiiaeaii ?ioa?aaee aeia??e ?iceeaeo
na?aaei?o cia/aiue aaee/ei, ui i?iaiicothoueny, iiaoaeiaai? ?ico?oae
i?iaiico.

Iniiai? iieiaeaiiy aeena?oaoe?? aeeeaaeai? o oaeeo ?iaioao:

Aaa?eeia Y.A., Aeaoeei (ss?auaiei) I.A. Iiaeaeue yaiethoeee nenoaiu
“*aeiaae-aaoiiiaeeue-n?aaea”// Aano. OAAAeOO.-Oa?ueeia: Ecae-ai
OAAAeOO.-1995.-Aui. 1.- N.27-30.

Aeaoeei (ss?auaiei) I.A., Eeiiee E.Y. Iauanoaaiii iaiaoiaeeiay nei?inoue
aeaeaeaiey// Aano. OAAAeOO.-Oa?ueeia: Ecae-ai OAAAeOO.-1997.-Aui. 6.-
N.29-30.

Aaa?eeia Y.A., Aeaoeei (ss?auaiei) I.A. Aeieain?i/iue i?iaiic nei?inoae
aeaeaeaiey// Aano. OAAAeOO.-Oa?ueeia: Ecae-ai OAAAeOO.-1999.-Aui. 9.-
N.30-33.

Aeaoeei (ss?auaiei) I.A. Iiaeaeue aaiethoe?? nenoaie “Iaoea — noa?a
aaeeaaiiy — i?aaeiaoiee na?o” // Oeyoe i?aeaeuaiiy aoaeoeaiino?
aei?iaeiueiai ainiiaea?noaa Oe?a?ie a iiaeo oiiaao ainiiaea?thaaiiy:
Oace aeii.-Ee?a: Aeae-ai EAAe?.- 1994.- N.139.

Aaa?eeia Y.A., Oeiey?aiei E.A., Aeaoeei(ss?auaiei) I.A. I?iaiice?iaaiea
iauanoaaiii iaiaoiaeeiuo nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey ia aaoiiiaeeueiuo aei?iaao
// I?iaeaiu ?acaeoey aaoio?ainoii?oa e o?aiceoiuo eiiioieeaoeee a
Oeaio?aeueii — Aceaoneii ?aaeiia: Na. o?. iaaeaeoia?. iao/.-oaoi. eiio.-
Oaoeaio.- 1996.

Aaa?eeia Y.A., Aeaoeei (ss?auaiei) I.A. Iiaeaeue i?iaiice?iaaiey
nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey ia aaoiiiaeeueiuo aei?iaao // Y?aiiiieea ia
aaoiiiaeeueiii o?ainii?oa: Na. o?. iaaeaeoia?. iao/. eiio.- Oa?ueeia :
Ecae-ai OAAAeOO.- 1997.- N.31-33.

ss?auaiei I.A. Aeiaaino?ieiaa i?iaiicoaaiiy oaeaeeinoae ?ooo ia
aaoiiia?eueieo aei?iaao.- ?oeiien.

Aeena?oaoe?y ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa oaoi?/ieo iaoe
ca niaoe?aeuei?noth 05.22.11. aaoiiia?euei? oeyoe oa aa?iae?iie.-
Oa?e?anueeee aea?aeaaiee aaoiiia?eueii-aei?iaei?e oaoi?/iee oi?aa?neoao,
Oa?e?a, 1999.

Aeena?oaoe?th i?enay/aii ieoaiiyi aeiaaino?ieiaiai i?iaiicoaaiiy
oaeaeeinoae ?ooo oa iaoaiaoe/iiai iiaeaethaaiiy nenoaie “ethaeeia —
aaoiiia?eue — na?aaeiaeua ?ooo” o i?ioean? aaiethoe??.

O aeena?oaoe?? i?iiiio?oueny iiaeaeue aaiethoe?? nenoaie ia
i?aai?caoe?eiiio ??ai?, ui aeicaiey? aeei?enoiaoaaoe ?ioi?iaoe?eio iiao
iiaeaethaaiiy. Iaaeaii ye?nio ioe?ieo nenoaie “ethaeeia — aaoiiia?eue —
na?aaeiaeua ?ooo”. Eiee nenoaia ? cae?eoith, ?icaeoie ?? eiiiiiaio?a
i?ieyaa? a iai?yieo /a?ac ae?eniee noai aei ii?ie. Ii?ia — oea noai
ooieoe?iiaeueiiai iioeioio. I?e ii?i? ianoa? aeeiai?/ia ??aiiaaaa, yeo
iieno? nenoaia ??aiyiue. Aeei?enoiaoth/e ?ica`ycie ??aiyiue aeeiai?/ii?
??aiiaaae, iiaeeeai ioe?ieoe ia?niaeoeaio oaeaee?noue ?ooo.

A ?iaio? iieno?oueny i?iaiicoaaiiy eiino?oeoeaieo, ?ic?aooieiaeo,
ooieoe?iiaeueieo ii?i oaeaeeinoae ?ooo, noni?eueii-iaiao?aeii?
oaeaeeino? ?ooo. ?ic?iaeaii i?iaiic oeeo oaeaeeinoae aei 2032 ?ieo.

Eeth/ia? neiaa: i?iaiicoaaiiy, oaeaee?noue ?ooo, aaoiiia?euei? aei?iae,
iaoaiaoe/ia iiaeaeue, aaiethoe?y, aaoiiia?eue, nenoaia.

ss?auaiei I.A. Aeieain?i/iia i?iaiice?iaaiea nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey ia
aaoiiiaeeueiuo aei?iaao.- ?oeiienue.

Aeenna?oaoeey ia nieneaiea o/aiie noaiaie eaiaeeaeaoa oaoie/aneeo iaoe
ii niaoeeaeueiinoe 05.22.11 — Aaoiiiaeeueiua aei?iae e ay?iae?iiu.-
Oa?ueeianeee ainoaea?noaaiiue aaoiiiaeeueii- aei?iaeiue oaoie/aneee
oieaa?neoao, Oa?ueeia, 1999.

Aeenna?oaoeey iinayuaia aii?inai aeieain?i/iiai i?iaiice?iaaiey
nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey ia aaoiiiaeeueiuo aei?iaao.

A aeaiiie ?aaioa i?aaeeaaaaony iiaeaee?iaaoue yaiethoeeth nenoaiu
“/aeiaae-aaoiiiaeeue-n?aaea aeaeaeaiey” ia i?aaiecaoeeiiiii o?iaia, /oi
iicaieyao eniieueciaaoue aeey iienaiey iiaeaee ycue oai?ee eioi?iaoeee.

Aue i?eiaiai iaoiae yaiethoeeiiii-aa?iyoiinoiiai iiaeaee?iaaiey,
iniiaaiiue ia o/aoa ea/anoaaiiuo eciaiaiee o?ainii?oiie nenoaiu.
Iieacaii, /oi a i?ioeanna yaiethoeee nenoaia ia?eiaee/anee i?ioiaeeo
oeeeeu caieioouo e ?aciieioouo ?acoeueoaoeaiuo i?ioeannia.

Aeey eiee/anoaaiiie ioeaiee i?aaiecaoeee ?anniao?eaaaiie nenoaiu
“/aeiaae-aaoiiiaeeue-n?aaea aeaeaeaiey” a caieiooii ninoiyiee
i?aaeeaaaaony eniieueciaaoue caeii nio?aiaiey yio?iiee.

A caieiooii ninoiyiee yaiethoeey ninoiyiey eiiiiiaiia nenoaiu aoaeao
?acaeaaoueny a iai?aaeaiee ia?aoiaea io oaeoe/aneie i?aaiecaoeee e
ii?iaeueiie. Iiae ii?iie iiieiaaony i?aaiecaoeey, eioi?ay iaeaieaa
aaeaeaaoia n?aaea e niioaaonoaoao caaea/ai ooieoeeiie?iaaiey eiiiiiaioia
nenoaiu “/aeiaae-aaoiiiaeeue-n?aaea aeaeaeaiey”. Ii?ia — yoi ninoiyiea
ooieoeeiiaeueiiai iioeioia. I?e aeinoeaeaiee ii?iu a i?ioeanna
yaiethoeee aicieeaao ninoyiea aeeiaie/aneiai ?aaiiaaney, eioi?ia
iienuaaaony nenoaiie o?aaiaiee. Eniieuecoy ?aoaiea o?aaiaiee
aeeiaie/aneiai ?aaiiaaney, iiaeii ioeaieoue ia?niaeoeaioth nei?inoue
aeaeaeaiey. Ia?aiao?aie iiaeaee i?iaiice?iaaiey nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey ia
aaoiiiaeeueiuo aei?iaao yaeythony ia/aeueiay e eiia/iay nei?inoe.
Ia/aeueiay nei?inoue aeaeaeaiey aeey ioaeaeueiiai aaoiiiaeey
ii?aaeaeyaony /a?ac eiaeeaeaeoaeueioth ii?io nei?inoe a aei?iaeiuo
oneiaeyo, niioaaonoaothueo ia/aeueiiio a?aiaie yaiethoeee nenoaiu
“/aeiaae-aaoiiiaeeue-n?aaea aeaeaeaiey”.

A i?ioeanna yaiethoeee aaoiiiaeeueiie aei?iae eiaeeaeaeoaeueiay ii?ia
nei?inoe aeaeaeaiey no?aieony e ooieoeeiiaeueiie ii?ia iioeaa naiaiaeu
aeaenoaee aiaeeoaey. Ia?aiao?u iiaeaee i?iaiice?iaaiey nei?inoae
aeaeaeaiey iicaieeee i?aaenoaaeoue yoo iiaeaeue aeey iaeeii/iiai
aaoiiiaeey, aeey o?ainii?oiiai iioiea, aeey naoe aei?ia e iauanoaaiii
iaiaoiaeeiie nei?inoe.

A ?acoeueoaoa auee ?ac?aaioaiu iaoiaeeee i?iaiice?iaaiey:

— eiino?oeoeaiuo nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey na?eeiuo aaoiiiaeeae;

— ?an/aoiuo nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey aeey ?ac?aaioee iiauo ii?iaoeaia e
oaoieei-yeiiiie/aneeo ?an/aoia i?e i?iaeoe?iaaiee aaoiiiaeeueiuo aei?ia
e o?ainii?oiuo ei?eaei?ia Oe?aeiu;

— ii?iaeueiuo (aeey /aeiaaea, oi?aaeythuaai aaoiiiaeeai) oaeoe/aneeo
nei?inoae aeaeaeaiey;

— iauanoaaiii iaiaoiaeeiie nei?inoe aeaeaeaiey eaaeaeiai aiaeeoaey a
iioiea e o?ainii?oiiai iioiea a oeaeii.

?ac?aaioai aeai?eoi e oaeno i?ia?aiiu aeey IYAI ii ?an/aoo eii?aeeiao
ninoiyiey eiiiiiaioia nenoaiu “*aeiaae-aaoiiiaeeue-n?aaea aeaeaeaiey” a
caieiooii ninoiyiee.

Eeth/aaua neiaa: i?iaiice?iaaiea, nei?inoue aeaeaeaiey, aaoiiiaeeueiua
aei?iae, iaoaiaoe/aneay iiaeaeue, yaiethoeey, aaoiiiaeeue, nenoaia.

Yareshchenko N.V. Long-Run forecasting of velocity of traffic on
highways.- Manuscript.

Thesis for the candidat’s degree by speciality — 05.22.11 — highways and
airports.- The Kharkiv State Automobile & Highway Technical University,
Kharkiv, 1999.

The dissertation describes the necessity of the prognosis and
mathematical model of system “man-automobile-outer world” evolution is
suggested.

This dissertation suggests to model the evolution system at the
organizational stage that allows to use the language the models. Fo give
a qualitative estimation of system “man-automobile-outer world” when
they are “closed” it is offered to use the law of preservation of
entropy.

When an system “man-automobile-outer world” is closed, evolution of the
state of system components will be developing in the direction of
transition from actual organization towards normal one. Here “Norm”
means the most adequate organization to the surrounding and organization
corresponding to the solution of tasks for system components
functioning. Norm is situation of functional optimum. Norm being reached
statistic equilibrium is formed.

The work describes the prognostication of social necessary velocity of
the system “man-automobile-outer world”.

Key words: forecasting, velocity of trafic, highways, mathematical
model, evolution, automobile, system.

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