2
Содержание
Введение 3
Г??1. Теоретические аспекты статистического анализа финансового
состояния банков 5
1.1. Финансовое состояние, показатели его характеризующие. 5
1.2. Сущность метода рядов динамики 7
1.3. Методы изучения взаимосвязи между явлениями
10
Г??2. Применение статистических методов для анализа финансовых
результатов АКБ «Альфа-банк» 17
2.1. Общая характеристика АКБ «Альфа-банк» 17
2.2. Расчёт аналитических и средних показателей 19
2.3. Выявление основной тенденции методами укрупнения интервалов,
скользящей средней и аналитического выравнивания 23
2.4 Корреляционно-регрессионный анализ
27
Заключение 31
Список литературы 33
Приложения
34
Введение
В настоящее время в мировой экономической системе наблюдается тенденция
к обширной интеграции и глобализации. Россия активно включается в данные
процессы. Но всё это немыслимы без надёжно функционирующей финансовой
системы, одним из центральных звеньев которой является национальная
банковская система.
Современные коммерческие банки вынуждены существовать в условиях
некоторой нестабильности. Это и политика процентных ставок Центрального
банка РФ (при 120% годовых рубль стал самой дорогой валютой мира), и
изъятие крупных сумм из оборота в резервные фонды, и неразбериха в
действующем законодательстве, и отсутствие отлаженной системы
страхования кредитов и депозитов, и т.п
В таких условиях степень надежности банка обусловлена не его размером, в
том числе и астрономической суммой валюты баланса, а качеством
управления (активами и пассивами, ликвидностью, рисками) и
профессионализмом сотрудников. Данной проблеме многие банки не уделяют
должного внимания, в результате чего постоянно возрастает величина
просроченной задолженности.
Цель нашего исследования – провести статистический анализ динамики
финансового состояния АКБ “Альфа-Банк” и оценить степень влияния
факторов на нее.
Для достижения поставленной цели необходимо решить ряд задач:
1) осуществить сбор первичной информации: данные бухгалтерского баланса
и его приложений за несколько лет;
2) систематизировать имеющиеся данные;
3) дать оценку экономической информации, взятой из отчетности
коммерческого банка;
4) провести статистический анализ динамики финансового состояния АКБ
“Альфа-Банк”.
Объектом исследования является АКБ “Альфа-Банк”.
Предмет исследования – размеры и количественные соотношения,
характеризующие финансовые результаты банка.
В процессе исследования были использованы следующие статистические
методы:
– монографический;
– табличный;
– метод рядов динамики;
– графический;
– корреляционно-регрессионный анализ.
Для написания курсового проекта были использованы следующие источники:
– учебники и учебные пособия;
– данные бухгалтерских балансов с приложениями за пять лет;
– материалы периодических и электронных изданий.
Структура проекта включает введение, две главы теоретических и
практических исследований, заключения, приложения.
Глава 1. Теоретические аспекты статистико-экономического анализа
динамики финансовых результатов АКБ «Альфа-Банк»
1.1. Понятие финансового состояния и показатели его характеризующие.
Финансовое состояние является комплексным понятием, которое зависит от
многих факторов и характеризуется системой показателей, отражающих
наличие и размещение средств, реальные и потенциальные финансовые
возможности.
В современном коммерческом банке финансовый анализ и анализ финансового
состояния, как его составляющая, представляет собой не просто элемент
финансового управления, а его основу, поскольку финансовая деятельность,
как известно, является преобладающей в банке. С помощью анализа, как
функции управления, и таких функций как аудит и контроль, осуществляется
внутреннее регулирование деятельности банка.[3]
Оценка финансового состояния может быть выполнена с различной степенью
детализации в зависимости от цели анализа, имеющейся информации,
программного, технического и кадрового обеспечения.
Финансовая деятельность – это рабочий язык бизнеса, и практически
невозможно анализировать операции или результаты работы предприятия
иначе, чем через финансовые показатели.
Стремясь решить конкретные вопросы и получить квалифицированную оценку
финансового положения, чаще всего прибегают к помощи финансового
анализа. Значение отвлеченных данных баланса или отчета о финансовых
результатах весьма невелико, если их рассматривать в отрыве друг от
друга. Поэтому для объективной оценки финансового положения необходимо
перейти к определенным ценностным соотношениям основных факторов –
финансовым показателям или коэффициентам.
Финансовые коэффициенты характеризуют пропорции между различными
статьями отчетности. Достоинствами финансовых коэффициентов являются
простота расчетов и элиминирование влияния инфляции.[2]
Для полноценного анализа финансового состояния используется совокупность
методов, одним из которых является метод коэффициентов.
Метод позволяет выявить количественную взаимосвязь между различными
группировками, т.е. определить удельный вес групп счетов (отдельных
счетов, статей) в общем объеме актива (пассива) или в соответствующем
разделе.
Активные счета, сгруппированные по видам операций, срокам,
экономическому содержанию, сопоставляются с аналогичными группировками
пассивных счетов.
Метод коэффициентов используется для контроля ликвидности, определения
достаточности капитала, качества активов, доходности и прибыльности.
Косвенным путем, по величинам коэффициентов, выявляются уровень деловой
активности банка и уровень управления.
Немаловажную роль метод коэффициентов приобретает для комплексной оценки
(рейтинга) степени надежности банка. [4]
Для анализа финансового состояния используется система показателей:
– показатель рентабельности капитала;
Рентабельность = Прибыль/Собственный капитал
(1)
– показатель соотношения высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств;
Соотношение высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств =
Высоколиквидные активы/Всего активов
(2)
– показатель общей кредитной активности;
Общая кредитная активность = Ссуды + Кредиты/Активы
(3)
-коэффициент дееспособности;
Дееспособность = Операционные доходы/Операционные расходы
(4)
-коэффициент эффективности использования привлеченных средств
Коэффициент эффективности использования привлеченных средств по доходам
= доходы банка всего/ заемные средства всего
(5)
1.2.Содержание метода рядов динамики.
Одним из методов финансового анализа банков является метод рядов
динамики.
Ряд динамики – ряд расположенных в хронологическом порядке значений
признака.
Ряд динамики состоит из двух элементов:
1. Время (t)
2. Уровень ряда (y)- характеризует конкретное значение признака.
Виды рядов динамики:
1. Ряд динамики абсолютных величин.
2. Ряд динамики относительных величин.
3. Ряд динамики средних величин.
Вышеуказанные ряды динамики делятся на:
А. Моментные – ряд, в котором значения признака указанны на отдельные
моменты времени.
Б. Интервальные – ряд, в котором значения признака указанны за
определенный период времени.
Данные интервального ряда динамики подлежат суммированию, а данные
моментных рядов динамики нельзя суммировать, так как наблюдается
повторный счет.
Показатели ряда динамики делятся на:
· базисные показатели рассчитываются по сравнению с началом периода;
· цепные показатели рассчитываются по сравнению с предшествующим
периодом;
Таблица 1
Расчетные формулы аналитических показателей ряда динамики
ПоказательРасчетная формулаХарактеристикабазисныецепныеАбсолютный
приростpicscalex1000100090000031d01000002001c000000000005000000090200000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П
оказывает на сколько уровень текущего периода больше или меньше
базисного или предшествующегоТемп
роста(снижения)picscalex1000100090000036801000003001c0000000000050000000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Показывает на сколько % уровень текущего
периода больше или меньше базисного или предшествующегоТемп
прироста(снижения)picscalex1000100090000034a01000002001c0000000000050000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Показывает на сколько % уровень текущего периода
больше или меньше базисного или предшествующегоАбсолютное значение 1%
прироста___picscalex1000100090000035f01000003001c00000000000500000009020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___
Для характеристики среднего изменения определяют:
1. Средний уровень интервального ряда с равностоящими пределами:
picscalex1000100090000035101000003001c0000000000050000000902000000000500
0000020101000000050000000102ffffff00050000002e0118000000050000000b020000
0000050000000c02400460061200000026060f001a00ffffffff000010000000c0ffffff
b9ffffff20060000f90300000b00000026060f000c004d617468547970650000c0000800
0000fa0200001000000000000000040000002d0100000500000014025a01400005000000
13025a0106010500000014026002b602050000001302600202061c000000fb0280fe0000
000000009001010000cc0402001054696d6573204e657720526f6d616e00b7c5c677c0c5
c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01010008000000320aec03ff0301000000ef790800
0000320a9501bf0401000000f37908000000320ac0025e0001000000f3791c000000fb02
20ff0000000000009001010000000402001054696d6573204e657720526f6d616e00b7c5
c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01020004000000f001010008000000320a
f50177050100000069791c000000fb02c0fd000000000000900100000002000200105379
6d626f6c007740000000810c0ad4b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01
010004000000f001020008000000320aee01cd0201000000e5791c000000fb0280fe0000
000000009001000000020002001053796d626f6c00774000000064080a57b7c5c677c0c5
c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01020004000000f001010008000000320ac0027801
010000003d790a00000026060f000a00ffffffff0100000000001c000000fb0210000700
00000000bc02000000cc0102022253797374656d000000000a0021008a01000000000100
000098f31200b9c1c677040000002d01010004000000f0010200030000000000
(6)
2. Средний абсолютный прирост, показывающий, насколько в среднем за
анализируемый период снизился или возрос уровень ряда: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(7)
3. Средний темп роста, показывающий, насколько % или во сколько раз в
среднем за анализируемый период снизился или возрос уровень ряда: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(8)
4. Средний темп прироста, показывающий, насколько % или во сколько раз в
среднем за анализируемый период снизился или возрос уровень ряда: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(9)
Одной из важнейших задач статистики является определение в рядах
динамики общей тенденции развития явления.
В некоторых случаях закономерность изменения явления, общая тенденция
его развития явно и отчетливо отражается уровнями динамического ряда
(уровни на изучаемом периоде непрерывно растут или непрерывно
снижаются).
Однако часто встречаются такие ряды динамики, в которых уровни ряда
претерпевают самые разные изменения, и общая тенденция развития неясна.
На развитие явления во времени оказывают влияние факторы, различные по
характеру и силе воздействия. Одни из них оказывают практически
постоянное воздействие и формируют в рядах динамики определенную
тенденцию развития. Воздействие же других факторов может быть
кратковременным или носить случайный характер. Поэтому при анализе
динамики речь идет не просто о тенденции развития, а об основной
тенденции, достаточно стабильной (устойчивой) на протяжении изучаемого
этапа развития.
Основная тенденция (тренд) – это главное устойчивое изменение, свободное
от случайных колебаний.[10]
Для характеристики основной тенденции используют следующие методы:
1. Метод укрупнения интервалов – расчет значения по укрупненным данным.
2. Метод скользящей средней – расчет среднего значения для нечетного
числа периодов, опускаясь на один период.
3. Метод аналитического выравнивания по прямой – составление уравнения
прямой следующего вида: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(10)
Параметры ао и а1 находят решение системы уравнений:
picscalex1000100090000030502000002001c0000000000050000000902000000000500
0000020101000000050000000102ffffff00050000002e0118000000050000000b020000
0000050000000c028005600f1200000026060f001a00ffffffff000010000000c0ffffff
a2ffffff200f0000220500000b00000026060f000c004d61746854797065000030011c00
0000fb0280fe0000000000009001000000020002001053796d626f6c007740000000ab09
0af1b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01000008000000320a94043a00
01000000ef7908000000320a04053a0001000000ee7908000000320a42023a0001000000
ef7908000000320a62033a0001000000ed7908000000320ac0013a0001000000ec790800
0000320a7304b209010000002b7908000000320a73047504010000003d7908000000320a
cd01f706010000002b7908000000320acd010304010000003d791c000000fb02c0fd0000
000000009001000000020002001053796d626f6c007740000000b4090a69b7c5c677c0c5
c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01010004000000f001000008000000320acc04f700
01000000e57908000000320acc04240701000000e57908000000320acc04290c01000000
e57908000000320a2602f70001000000e57908000000320a26026e0901000000e5791c00
0000fb0220ff0000000000009001000000000402001054696d6573204e657720526f6d61
6e00b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01000004000000f00101000800
0000320ac7038a0e01000000327908000000320ad304900b01000000317908000000320a
d3047a0601000000307908000000320a2d02d50801000000317908000000320a2d020806
0100000030791c000000fb0280fe0000000000009001010000000402001054696d657320
4e657720526f6d616e00b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d0101000400
0000f001000008000000320a7304eb0d01000000747908000000320a7304d80a01000000
617908000000320a7304e60801000000747908000000320a7304ad050100000061790800
0000320a7304e90202000000797408000000320acd01300b0100000074741c000000fb02
80fe0000000000009001010000cc0402001054696d6573204e657720526f6d616e00b7c5
c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d01000004000000f001010008000000320a
cd011d0801000000e07408000000320acd013b0501000000e07408000000320acd01e902
01000000f3740a00000026060f000a00ffffffff0100000000001c000000fb0210000700
00000000bc02000000cc0102022253797374656d000000000a0021008a01000000000100
000098f31200b9c1c677040000002d01010004000000f0010000030000000000
(11)
Где у-фактические уравнения, t-
время(поpicscalex1000100090000035100000000001200000000000500000009020000
000005000000020101000000050000000102ffffff00050000002e011800000005000000
0b0200000000050000000c02200220011200000026060f001a00ffffffff000010000000
c0ffffffa6ffffffe0000000c60100000b00000026060f000c004d617468547970650000
50000a00000026060f000a00ffffffff010000000000030000000000рядковый номер
периода или момента t). Если t =0,то: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(12)
Из первого уравнения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; из второго уравнения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1.3. Методы изучения взаимосвязи между явлениями
Корреляция – это статистическая зависимость между случайными величинами,
не имеющими строго функционального характера, при которой изменение
одной из случайных величин приводит к изменению математического ожидания
другой. [12]
В экономических исследованиях часто решают задачу выявления факторов,
определяющих уровень и динамику экономического процесса. Такая задача
чаще всего решается методами корреляционного и регрессионного анализа.
Для достоверного отображения объективно существующих в экономике
процессов необходимо выявить существенные взаимосвязи и дать им
количественную оценку. Этот подход требует вскрытия причинных
зависимостей. Под причинной зависимостью понимается такая связь между
процессами, когда изменение одного из них является следствием изменения
другого. [12]
Основными задачами корреляционного анализа являются: оценка силы связи и
проверка статистических гипотез о наличии и силе корреляционной связи.
Для измерения тесноты связи меду двумя из рассматриваемых переменных
(без учета их взаимодействия с другими переменными) применяется парный
коэффициент корреляции. Если известны средние квадратические отклонения
(у) анализируемых величин, то парные коэффициенты корреляции
рассчитывают по формулам: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;
(13)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;
(14)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.
(15)
В реальных условиях все переменные, как правило, взаимосвязаны. Теснота
этой связи определяется частными коэффициентами корреляциями, которые
характеризуют степень и влияние одного из аргументов на функцию при
условии, что остальные независимые переменные закреплены на постоянном
уровне. Частный коэффициент корреляции первого порядка между признаками
x1 и y при исключении влияния признака x2 вычисляют по формуле: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;
(16)
то же – зависимость y от x2 при исключении влияния x1.
Показателем тесноты связи, устанавливаемой между результативным и двумя
или более факторными признаками, является совокупный коэффициент
множественной корреляции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. В случае линейной двухфакторной
связи совокупный коэффициент множественной корреляции может быть
рассчитан по формуле: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,
(17)
где r – линейные коэффициенты корреляции (парные); подстрочные индексы
показывают, между какими признаками они исчисляются.
Совокупный коэффициент множественной корреляции измеряет одновременное
влияние факторных признаков на результативный. Его значения находятся в
пределах -1 до +1. Чем меньше наблюдаемые значения изучаемого показателя
отклоняются от линии множественной регрессии, тем корреляционная связь
интенсивнее, а следовательно, значение R ближе к единице. [11]
Величина R2, которая показывает, какая доля вариации изучаемого
показателя объясняется влиянием факторов, включенных в уравнение
множественной регрессии, называется совокупным коэффициентом
множественной детерминации. Значение совокупного коэффициента
множественной детерминации находится в пределах от 0 до 1. Поэтому, чем
ближе R2 к единице, тем вариация изучаемого показателя в большей мере
характеризуется влиянием отобранных факторов. [7]
Показатели множественной регрессии и корреляции могут оказаться
подверженными действию случайных факторов. Общую оценку адекватности
уравнения получают с помощью дисперсионного F-критерия Фишера: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,
(18)
где m – число параметров в уравнении регрессии.
Не все факторы, влияющие на экономические процессы, являются случайными
величинами, поэтому при анализе экономических явлений обычно
рассматриваются связи между случайными и неслучайными величинами. Такие
связи называются регрессионными, а метод математической статистики, их
изучающий, называется регрессионным анализом.
Уравнение однофакторной регрессионной связи имеет вид: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,
(19)
где
picscalex100010009000003b300000003001c0000000000050000000902000000000500
0000020101000000050000000102ffffff00050000002e0118000000050000000b020000
0000050000000c02600260011200000026060f001a00ffffffff000010000000c0ffffff
b3ffffff20010000130200000b00000026060f000c004d61746854797065000050000800
0000fa0200001000000000000000040000002d0100000500000014025500400005000000
1302550006011c000000fb0280fe0000000000009001010000000402001054696d657320
4e657720526f6d616e00b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d0101000800
0000320ac0015e000100000079790a00000026060f000a00ffffffff0100000000001c00
0000fb021000070000000000bc02000000cc0102022253797374656d000000000a002100
8a0100000000ffffffff24fc1200b9c1c677040000002d01020004000000f00101000300
00000000 – теоретические значения результативного признака;
а0 и а1 – параметры уравнения регрессии.
При исследовании влияния на результативный фактор нескольких факторных
применяется формула множественной регрессии с n-факторами: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(20)
Чтобы иметь представление о силе влияния отдельных факторных признаков
на результативный, вычисляют следующие коэффициенты:
Коэффициент эластичности: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 ,
(21)
где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 – коэффициент регрессии при i-ом факторе,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 – среднее значение i-го
фактора,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- среднее значение
результативного признака.
Коэффициент эластичности показывает, на сколько процентов изменяется
результативный признак при изменении факторного на 1%.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-коэффиц
иент: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, (22)
где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 – среднее
квадратическое отклонение i-го фактора;
picscalex100010009000003c900000002001c0000000000050000000902000000000500
0000020101000000050000000102ffffff00050000002e0118000000050000000b020000
0000050000000c02600200021200000026060f001a00ffffffff000010000000c0ffffff
a6ffffffc0010000060200000b00000026060f000c004d61746854797065000070001c00
0000fb0220ff0000000000009001010000000402001054696d6573204e657720526f6d61
6e00d89ff377e19ff3772020f577080f6639040000002d01000008000000320ae0015401
0100000079791c000000fb0280fe0000000000009001010000020402001053796d626f6c
0000e60e0a5ca0f11200d89ff377e19ff3772020f577080f6639040000002d0101000400
0000f001000008000000320a80011c000100000073790a00000026060f000a00ffffffff
0100000000001c000000fb021000070000000000bc02000000cc0102022253797374656d
0039080f663900000a0021008a010000000000000000bcf31200040000002d0100000400
0000f0010100030000000000 – среднее квадратическое отклонение
результативного признака, которые, в свою очередь, находят по следующим
формулам: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 (23)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 (24)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-коэффиц
иент показывает, на какую часть среднего квадратического отклонения
изменяется результативный признак с изменением соответствующего
факторного.
Корреляционный анализ и регрессионный анализ являются смежными разделами
математической статистики и предназначаются для изучения по выборочным
данным статистической зависимости ряда величин. Корреляция и регрессия
тесно связаны между собой: первая оценивает силу (тесноту)
статистической связи, вторая исследует ее форму. И корреляция, и
регрессия служат для установления соотношений между явлениями и для
определения наличия или отсутствия связи между ними.
Пользуясь методами корреляционно-регрессионного анализа, аналитики
измеряют тесноту связей показателей с помощью коэффициента корреляции.
При этом обнаруживаются связи, различные по силе (сильные, слабые,
умеренные и др.) и различные по направлению (прямые, обратные). Если
связи окажутся существенными, то целесообразно будет найти их
математическое выражение в виде регрессионной модели и оценить
статистическую значимость модели. В экономике значимое уравнение
используется, как правило, для прогнозирования изучаемого явления или
показателя. [6]
Следует иметь ввиду, что вероятностное или статистическое решение любой
экономической задачи должно основываться на подробном осмыслении
исходных математических понятий и предпосылок, корректности и
объективности сбора исходной информации, в постоянном сочетании с
теснотой связи экономического и математико-статистического анализа.
Для применения корреляционного анализа необходимо, чтобы все
рассматриваемые переменные были случайными и имели нормальный закон
распределения. Причем выполнение этих условий необходимо только при
вероятностной оценке выявленной тесноты связи.
Экономические данные почти всегда представлены в виде таблиц. Числовые
данные, содержащиеся в таблицах, обычно имеют между собой явные
(известные) или неявные (скрытые) связи.
Явно связаны показатели, которые получены методами прямого счета, т. е.
вычислены по заранее известным формулам (проценты выполнения плана,
уровни, удельные веса, отклонения в сумме, отклонения в процентах, темпы
роста, темпы прироста, индексы и т. д.).
Связи же второго типа (неявные) заранее неизвестны. Однако необходимо
уметь объяснять и предсказывать (прогнозировать) сложные явления для
того, чтобы управлять ими. Поэтому специалисты с помощью наблюдений
стремятся выявить скрытые зависимости и выразить их в виде формул, т. е.
математически смоделировать явления или процессы. Одну из таких
возможностей предоставляет корреляционно-регрессионный анализ.[9]
Регрессионный анализ называют основным методом современной
математической статистики для выявления неявных и завуалированных связей
между данными наблюдений. Электронные таблицы делают такой анализ легко
доступным. Таким образом, регрессионные вычисления и подбор хороших
уравнений – это ценный, универсальный исследовательский инструмент в
самых разнообразных отраслях деловой и научной деятельности (маркетинг,
торговля, медицина и т. д.). Усвоив технологию использования этого
инструмента, можно применять его по мере необходимости, получая знание о
скрытых связях, улучшая аналитическую поддержку принятия решений и
повышая их обоснованность.
Корреляционно-регрессионный анализ считается одним из главных методов в
маркетинге, наряду с оптимизационными расчетами, а также математическим
и графическим моделированием трендов (тенденций). Широко применяются как
однофакторные, так и множественные регрессионные модели.
Использование возможностей современной вычислительной техники,
оснащенной пакетами программ машинной обработки статистической
информации на ЭВМ, делает практически осуществимым оперативное решение
задач изучения взаимосвязи показателей биржевых ставок методами
корреляционно-регрессионного анализа.
При машинной обработке исходной информации на ЭВМ, оснащенных пакетами
стандартных программ ведения анализов, вычисление параметров применяемых
математических функций является быстро выполняемой счетной операцией.
Глава 2. Применение статистических методов для анализа динамики
финансового состояния АКБ «Альфа-банк»
2.1. Общая характеристика АКБ «Альфа-Банк»
Альфа-Банк — крупнейший частный банк России, успешно работающий
с 1990 года. Организационно-правовая форма банка – открытое акционерное
общество. Альфа-Банк является высокотехнологичным универсальным банком,
предоставляющим полный комплекс услуг корпоративным и частным клиентам.
Банк входит в число самых надежных и диверсифицированных финансовых
структур России.
Альфа-Банк входит в пятерку крупнейших российских банков по величине
активов и собственного капитала. По данным аудированной финансовой
отчетности (МСФО) за 2004 год, активы группы «Альфа-Банк», куда входят
ОАО «Альфа-Банк», дочерние банки и финансовые компании, составили
7 млрд. долларов США, чистая прибыль — 153 млн. долларов США,
собственный капитал — 708 млн. долларов США, кредитный портфель —
4,7 млрд. долларов США. [13]
Альфа-Банк — один из немногих российских банков, где проводится
международная аудиторская проверка с 1993 года.
Стратегическое направление деятельности Альфа-Банка — розничный
бизнес. В 2003 году Альфа-Банк представил новый стандарт работы
с частными клиентами и компаниями малого бизнеса. Сегодня в Москве
открыто 28 отделений комплексного банковского обслуживания частных
лиц. В 2004 году Банк вышел на рынок потребительского кредитования.
Успешно развивается инвестиционный бизнес Альфа-Банка. Банк эффективно
работает на рынках капитала, ценных бумаг с фиксированной доходностью,
валютном и денежном рынках, в сфере операций с деривативами. Банк
стабильно удерживает позицию одного из ведущих операторов
и маркет-мейкеров на внешнем рынке суверенных российских облигаций
и долговых инструментов российского корпоративного сектора.
Альфа-Банк создал разветвленную филиальную сеть — важнейший канал
распространения услуг и продуктов. В Москве, регионах России
и за рубежом открыто около 110 отделений и филиалов банка, в том числе
дочерние банки на Украине, в Казахстане и Нидерландах, а также
в Башкортостане и Татарстане. Представительства банка действуют
в Великобритании и США. Долгосрочные текущие рейтинги Альфа-Банка —
Fitch («B+» со стабильным прогнозом), Moody’s («Ba2» с позитивным
прогнозом) и Standard & Poor’s («BB?» со стабильным прогнозом).[15]
Альфа-Банк является членом Попечительского Совета Большого театра,
членом Корпоративного клуба WWF России, продолжает реализацию
образовательной программы для российских школьников «Альфа-Шанс»,
оказывает финансовую поддержку благотворительной программе спасения
тяжелобольных детей «Линия жизни».
Руководство Альфа-Банка составляют люди, имеющие обширный опыт работы,
как в России, так и за рубежом. Многие из них получили образование
в наиболее авторитетных зарубежных и отечественных университетах
и бизнес школах, имеют ученые степени и являются авторами большого числа
научных работ и статей.
Руководители различных подразделений банка занимали управленческие
должности в крупнейших российских и зарубежных финансовых структурах,
при Правительстве России и субъектов Российской Федерации.
Значительный вклад в успехи банка вносят также иностранные специалисты
с их богатым опытом работы в западных компаниях и на международных
рынках, применение и адаптация которого к российским условиям является
важной составной частью стратегии развития банка.[14]
2.2. Расчет аналитических и средних показателей
Для комплексной оценки динамики финансового состояния АКБ “Альфа-Банк”
необходимо провести анализ по нескольким группам показателей:
– Показатели анализа и оценки качества активов;
– Показатели оценки финансовой устойчивости банка;
– Показатели анализа и оценки платежеспособности банка;
Для статистической оценки достаточно будет проанализировать лишь
некоторые нормативы и коэффициенты. Проанализируем динамику следующих
показателей финансового состояния: рентабельности капитала; соотношения
высоко ликвидных активов и привлеченных средств; общая кредитная
активность; дееспособность; эффективности использования привлеченных
средств по доходам; используя аналитические и средние показатели ряда
динамики, расчетные формулы которых представлены в таблице 1 и расчетных
формулах (6),(7), (8), (9).
Таблица 2
Динамика показателя рентабельности капитала
ГодРентабельность капиталаАбсолютный приростТемп роста, %Темп прироста,
%цепныебазисныецепныебазисныецепныебазисные20020,076——20030,0900,010
,01118,4118,418,418,420040,7520,660,68835,6989,5735,6889,520051,0000,250
,92133,01315,833,01215,820060,894-0,110,8289,41176,3-10,61076,3Сумма2,81
20,82—–
Рассчитаем средние показатели:
1. Средний уровень ряда: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0,562
2. Средний абсолютный прирост:
picscalex100010009000003b300000003001c0000000000050000000902000000000500
0000020101000000050000000102ffffff00050000002e0118000000050000000b020000
0000050000000c02000280011200000026060f001a00ffffffff000010000000c0ffffff
acffffff40010000ac0100000b00000026060f000c004d61746854797065000020000800
0000fa0200001000000000000000040000002d0100000500000014025c00400005000000
13025c0029011c000000fb0280fe0000000000009001010000cc0402001054696d657320
4e657720526f6d616e00b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d0101000800
0000320ac001580001000000c0790a00000026060f000a00ffffffff0100000000001c00
0000fb021000070000000000bc02000000cc0102022253797374656d000000000a002100
8a0100000000ffffffff90e41200b9c1c677040000002d01020004000000f00101000300
00000000=0,205
3. Средний темп роста: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185,2%
4. Средний темп прироста: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85,2%
В 2006 году рентабельность капитала снизилась на 0,11 или 10,6 п.п. В
остальные периоды наблюдается рост данного показателя. В среднем за
анализируемый период рентабельность капитала составила 0,6. При этом в
среднем прирост рентабельности капитала составил 0,205 или 85,2%.
Таблица 3
Динамика показателя соотношения высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных
средств
ГодВысоколиквидные активы и привлеченные средстваАбсолютный приростТемп
роста,%Темп
прироста,%цепныебазисныецепныебазисныецепныебазисные20020,206——20030
,107-0,10-0,1051,951,9-48,1-48,120040,3990,290,19372,9193,7272,993,72005
0,226-0,170,0256,6109,7-43,49,720060,2330,010,03103,1113,13,113,1Сумма1,
1710,03—–
Рассчитаем средние показатели:
1. Средний уровень ряда: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0,2
2. Средний абсолютный прирост: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0,007
3. Средний темп роста:
picscalex100010009000003df00000003001c0000000000050000000902000000000500
0000020101000000050000000102ffffff00050000002e0118000000050000000b020000
0000050000000c02a00220021200000026060f001a00ffffffff000010000000c0ffffff
acffffffe00100004c0200000b00000026060f000c004d61746854797065000070000800
0000fa0200001000000000000000040000002d0100000500000014025c00400005000000
13025c00d3011c000000fb0220ff0000000000009001010000cc0402001054696d657320
4e657720526f6d616e00b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c97700003000040000002d0101000800
0000320a20023b0101000000f0791c000000fb0280fe0000000000009001010000cc0402
001054696d6573204e657720526f6d616e00b7c5c677c0c5c67720c0c977000030000400
00002d01020004000000f001010008000000320ac001220001000000d2790a0000002606
0f000a00ffffffff0100000000001c000000fb021000070000000000bc02000000cc0102
022253797374656d000000000a0021008a01000000000100000090e41200b9c1c6770400
00002d01010004000000f0010200030000000000=103,1%
4. Средний темп прироста: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3,1%
За анализируемый период 2002-2006 гг. наблюдается рост соотношения
высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств, за исключением 2003 и
2005 годов (в 2003 году соотношение высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств по сравнению с предшествующим периодом снизилось на
0,1 или 48,1%, а в 2005 году соотношение высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств по сравнению с предшествующим периодом снизилось на
0,17 или 43,4%). В среднем за анализируемый период соотношение
высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств составило 0,2. При этом в
среднем прирост соотношение высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных
средств составил 0,007 или 3,1%.
Для расчета аналитических и средних изменения показателей общей
кредитной активности составим таблицу:
Таблица 4
Динамика показателя соотношения общей кредитной активности
ГодОбщая кредитная активностьАбсолютный приростТемп роста,%Темп
прироста,%ЦепныеБазисныеЦепныеБазисныеЦепныеБазисные20020,094——20030
,7640,670,67812,8812,8712,8712,820040,441-0,320,3557,7469,1-42,3369,1200
50,016-0,43-0,083,617,0-96,4-83,020060,1090,090,02681,3116,0581,316,0Сум
ма1,4240,02—–
Рассчитаем средние показатели:
1. Средний уровень ряда: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0,3
2. Средний абсолютный прирост: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0,004
3. Средний темп роста: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103,6%
4. Средний темп прироста: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3,6%
На протяжении всего анализируемого периода общая кредитная активность
возрастает, за исключением 2004 и 2005 годов (в 2005 году общая
кредитная активность как по сравнению с базисным, так и по сравнению с
предшествующим периодами снизилась на 0,43 или 96,4%, а в 2004 году по
сравнению с предшествующим периодом снизилась на 0,32 или 42,3%). В
среднем за анализируемый период общая кредитная активность составила
0,3. При этом в среднем прирост кредитной активности составил 0,004 или
3,6%.
Таблица 5
Динамика изменения коэффициента дееспособности
ГодКоэффициент эффективности использования привлеченных средств по
доходамАбсолютный приростТемп роста,%Темп
прироста,%ЦепныеБазисныеЦепныеБазисныеЦепныеБазисные20020,700——20030
,563-0,14-0,1480,480,4-19,6-19,620040,343-0,22-0,3660,949,0-39,1-51,0200
50,034-0,31-0,679,94,9-90,1-95,120060,3270,29-0,37961,846,7861,8-53,3 1,
967-0,37
Рассчитаем средние показатели:
1. Средний уровень ряда: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0,4
2. Средний абсолютный прирост: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-0,093
3. Средний темп роста: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82,7%
4. Средний темп прироста: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-17,3%
На протяжении всего анализируемого периода дееспособность как по
сравнению с базисным, так и по сравнению с предшествующим периодами
снижается, за исключением 2006 года, в котором по сравнению с 2005г.
дееспособность возросла на 0,29 или 861 %. В среднем за период 2002-2006
гг. дееспособность составила 0,4. При этом в среднем прирост
дееспособности снизился на -0,093 или -17,3 %.
Таблица 6
Динамика коэффициента эффективности использования привлеченных средств
по доходам
ГодКоэффициент эффективности использования привлеченных средств по
доходамАбсолютный прирост,%Темп роста,%Темп
прироста,%ЦепныеБазисныеЦепныеБазисныеЦепныеБазисные20020,725——20030
,269-0,46-0,4637,137,1-62,9-62,920040,2920,02-0,43108,640,38,6-59,720050
,280-0,01-0,4595,938,6-4,1-61,420060,5040,22-0,22180,069,580,0-30,5 2,07
0-0,22
Рассчитаем средние показатели:
1. Средний уровень ряда: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0,4
2. Средний абсолютный прирост: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 -0,055
3. Средний темп роста: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91,3%
4. Средний темп прироста: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-8,7%
Как видно из таблицы в целом по сравнению с базисным периодом
наблюдается общее снижение коэффициента эффективности использования
привлеченных средств по доходам. По сравнению с предыдущим сохраняется
данная тенденция. Исключение составляет 2004г. и 2006г.,где абсолютный
прирост коэффициента составил 0,02% или 8,6 п.п. и 0,22% или 80 п.п.
соответственно. В среднем за анализируемый период коэффициент
эффективности использования привлеченных средств по доходам составил
0,4%. При этом в среднем прирост данного показателя снизился на 0,055%
или 8,7 п.п.
2.3. Выявление основной тенденции методами укрупнения интервалов,
скользящей средней и аналитического выравнивания.
Для анализа основной тенденции изменения показателя рентабельности
капитала методами укрупнения интервалов и скользящей средней составим
таблицу.
Таблица 7
Выявление основной тенденции динамики коэффициента рентабельности
капитала
ГодРентабельность капиталаУкрупнение интерваловСкользящая
средняяСуммаСредняяСуммаСредняя20020,076—-20030,0900,90,30,90,320040,7
52–1,80,620051,000–2,60,920060,894—-
Метод укрупнения интервалов и скользящей средней отражает рост
рентабельности капитала с 30% до 90%.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,6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,3
Таблица 8
Выравнивание по прямой коэффициента рентабельности капитала
Годуtt^2yt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,076-24-0,150,00020030,090-
11-0,090,30020040,752000,000,60020051,000111,000,90020060,894241,791,200
Сумма2,8120102,553,000
Уравнение прямой: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0,6+0,3t
Формула уравнения прямой показывает общую тенденцию роста рентабельности
капитала в среднем ежегодно на 0,3 или 30%.
Таблица 9
Выявление основной тенденции динамики показателя соотношения
высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств
ГодВысоколиквидные активы и привлеченные средстваУкрупнение
интерваловСкользящая
средняяСуммаСредняяСуммаСредняя20010,206—-20020,1070,70,20,70,220030,3
99–0,70,220040,226–0,90,320050,233—-
Как показывает метод укрупнения интервалов данный показатель в среднем
по трехлетиям увеличивается с 20% до 30%.
Проанализируем основную тенденцию методом аналитического выравнивания по
прямой, используя формулы (12), (13),(14).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,2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,017
Таблица 10
Выравнивание по прямой показателя соотношения высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств
Годуtt^2ytpicscalex100010009000003df00000003001c000000000005000000090200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20020,206-24-0,410,1720030,107-11-0,11-0,0220040,399000,000,2020050,2261
10,230,2220060,233240,470,23Сумма1,1710100,170,80
Уравнение прямой: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0,2+0,017t
Соотношение высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств в среднем
ежегодно возрастает на 0,017 или 1,7%.
Таблица 11
Выявление основной тенденции динамики коэффициента общей кредитной
активности
ГодОбщая кредитная активностьУкрупнение интерваловСкользящая
средняяСуммаСредняяСуммаСредняя20010,094—-20020,7641,30,41,30,420030,4
41–1,20,420040,016–0,60,220050,109—-
Метод укрупнения интервалов и скользящей средней отражает снижение общей
кредитной активности в среднем по трехлетиям с 40% до 20%.
Проанализируем основную тенденцию методом аналитического выравнивания по
прямой, используя формулы (12), (13),(14).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,3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-0,1
Таблица 12
Расчетные данные для определения параметров уравнения прямой
Годуtt^2yt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,094-24-0,190,520020,764-11
-0,760,420030,441000,000,320040,016110,020,220050,109240,220,1Сумма1,424
010-0,721,5
Уравнение
прямой:picscalex100010009000003df00000003001c000000000005000000090200000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0,3-0,1t
Формула уравнения прямой показывает общую тенденцию снижения общей
кредитной активности ежегодно в среднем на 0,1 или 10%.
Таблица 13
Выявление основной тенденции динамики коэффициента дееспособности.
ГоддееспособностьУкрупнение интерваловСкользящая
средняяСуммаСредняяСуммаСредняя20020,700—-20030,5631,60,51,60,520040,3
43–0,90,320050,034–0,70,220060,327—-
Согласно расчётам дееспособность снижается в среднем по трехлетиям с 50%
до 20%.
Проанализируем основную тенденцию методом аналитического выравнивания по
прямой, используя формулы (12), (13),(14).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,4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-0,1
Таблица 14
Расчетные данные для определения параметров уравнения прямой
Годуtt^2yt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,700-24-1,400,6020020,563-1
1-0,560,5020030,343000,000,4020040,034110,030,3020050,327240,650,20Сумма
1,967010-1,282,00
Уравнение прямой: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0,4 – 0,1t
Формула уравнения прямой показывает общую тенденцию снижения
дееспособности ежегодно в среднем на 0,1 или 10%.
2.4. Корреляционно-регрессионный анализ
На основе имеющихся данных проведем корреляционно-регрессионный анализ.
Для проведения многофакторного корреляционно-регрессионного анализа
используем следующие показатели: рентабельность собственного капитала
(ух); дееспособность (х1); общая кредитная активность (х2); соотношения
высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств (х3); эффективности
использования привлеченных средств по доходам (х4). Расчеты произведены
в Microsoft Excel.
В результате расчетов была получена следующая матрица парных
коэффициентов корреляции:
Таблица 15
ПоказателиУх Х1 Х2 Х3Х4Ух1 Х10,5391 Х2-0,499-0,2061 Х3-0,921-0,33
30,3871 Х4-0,378-0,113-0,5110,5861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, так как значение находится в пределах 0,5-0,7, то между признаками
наблюдается умеренная взаимосвязь;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, так как значение находится в пределах -0,3-0,5, то
между этими признаками наблюдается слабая взаимосвязь;
picscalex1000100090000030c0200000200970000000000050000000201010000000500
00000102ffffff00050000002e0119000000050000000b0200000000050000000c026002
00081300000026060f001c00ffffffff00004e0010000000c0ffffffa6ffffffc0070000
060200000b00000026060f000c004d617468547970650000700005000000090200000002
0500000014021d027b011c000000fb025fff000000000000900100000000000200105469
6d6573204e657720526f6d616e0088a9f37791a9f3772030f577182b66e4040000002d01
000009000000320a00000000010000003379420105000000140280015e041c000000fb02
80fe0000000000009001000000000002001054696d6573204e657720526f6d616e0088a9
f37791a9f3772030f577182b66e4040000002d01010004000000f00100000f000000320a
0000000005000000302c39323100ba008400c000c0000003050000001402e301bf001c00
0000fb0222ff0000000000009001010000000002001054696d6573204e657720526f6d61
6e0088a9f37791a9f3772030f577182b66e4040000002d01000004000000f00101000a00
0000320a000000000200000079786100bc0105000000140280013a001c000000fb0280fe
0000000000009001010000000002001054696d6573204e657720526f6d616e0088a9f377
91a9f3772030f577182b66e4040000002d01010004000000f001000009000000320a0000
00000100000072780003050000001402800160021c000000fb0280fe0000000000009001
000000010002001053796d626f6c0000bf2a0a6098db120088a9f37791a9f3772030f577
182b66e4040000002d01000004000000f00101000a000000320a00000000020000003d2d
2c0100039700000026060f0023014d6174685479706555551701050100050244534d5435
00001357696e416c6c4261736963436f6465506167657300110554696d6573204e657720
526f6d616e00110353796d626f6c001105436f7572696572204e65770011044d54204578
74726100120008212f458f442f4150f4100f475f4150f21f1e4150f4150f4100f445f425
f48f425f4100f4100f435f4100f48f45f42a5f48f48f4100f4100f40f48f417f48f4100f
412a5f445f45f45f45f45f410f0c01020100010202020200020001010100030001000400
000a0100020083720003001b00000b01000200837900020083780003001b00000c010002
0088330000010100000b0101000a0204863d003d02048612222d02008830000200822c00
0200883900020088320002008831000000b50b00000026060f000c00ffffffff01000000
000000001c000000fb021000070000000000bc02000000cc0102022253797374656d00e4
182b66e400000a0021008a010000000001000000e4e51200040000002d01010004000000
f0010000030000000000, так как значение находится в пределах -0,7-1,0, то
между признаками наблюдается тесная обратная связь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, так как значение находится в пределах -0,3-0,5, то
между этими признаками наблюдается слабая взаимосвязь;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, так как
значение находится в пределах до 0,3, то между признаками связь
практически отсутствует;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, так как
значение находится в пределах -0,3-0,5, то между этими признаками
наблюдается слабая взаимосвязь;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, так как
значение находится в пределах до -0,3, то между признаками связь
практически отсутствует;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, так как значение находится
в пределах 0,3-0,5, то между этими признаками наблюдается слабая
взаимосвязь;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, так как
значение находится в пределах -0,5-0,7, то между признаками наблюдается
умеренная взаимосвязь;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, так как значение находится
в пределах 0,5-0,7, то между признаками наблюдается умеренная
взаимосвязь. Так как между результативным признаком, общей кредитной
активностью и эффективности использования привлеченных средств по
доходам отсутствует взаимосвязь, то мы исключаем их из регрессии.
В результате регрессии получены показатели тесноты связи между всеми
признаками, представленные в таблице 16
Таблица 16
Регрессионная статистика
Множественный R0,853R-квадрат0,908Нормированный
R-квадрат0,816Стандартная ошибка0,191Наблюдения5
Множественный R- множественный коэффициент корреляции равен 0,853, так
как значение находится в пределах 0,7-0,9, то между рентабельностью,
дееспособностью и показателем соотношения высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств наблюдается тесная взаимосвязь. R2- множественный
коэффициент детерминации равен 0,908, показывает, что изменение прибыли
зависит от изменения достаточности капитала и обеспеченности кредитных
вложений резервами на возможные потери по ссудам на 90,8% , влияние
неучтенных факторов составляет 9,1%.
Таблица 17
Исходные данные для уравнения регрессии
КоэффициентыСтандартная ошибкаt-статистикаP-ЗначениеНижние 95%Верхние
95%Y-пересечение0,8770,3262,6870,115-0,5272,282Переменная X
1-1,4630,399-3,6670,067-3,1790,254Переменная X
21,1120,9651,1520,368-3,0415,265
Для составления уравнения регрессии были рассчитаны значения
параметров(таблица 15 )
По результатам расчетов было получено уравнение регрессии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0,877-1,463х1+1
,112х2,
переменная – х1=-1,463 показывает, что при увеличении дееспособности на
1, рентабельность снижается на 1,463 ; переменная – х2=1,112
свидетельствует о том, что при увеличении соотношения высоколиквидных
активов и привлеченных средств на 1, рентабельность возрастает на 1,112.
Для того чтобы определить, на сколько процентов изменение
результативного признака характеризуется изменением факторного на 1%,
рассчитаем коэффициенты эластичности по формуле (21). Получаем
следующие результаты: Э1=-1,463, Э2=1,112, которые говорят о том, что
при увеличении дееспособности на 1% рентабельность снижается на 146,3%;
а при увеличении показателя соотношения высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств на 1% – на 111,2%.
Кроме коэффициента эластичности необходимо рассчитать среднее
квадратическое отклонение по формулам (21) и (22), а также
в-коэффициент по формуле (20), который, в свою очередь, покажет, какой
из факторных признаков в большей степени влияет на результативный. В
результате были получены следующие результаты: уy=0,399, уx1= 0,094,
уx2= 0,228 и в1= -0,345, в2=0,634, которые говорят о том, что если
дееспособность увеличится на 9,4%, то рентабельность сократится на
0,399*(-0,345)= -13,77%. при увеличении соотношения высоколиквидных
активов и привлеченных средств на 22,8% рентабельность увеличится на
25,3%. Из этого следует, что наибольшее влияние на динамику изменения
рентабельности оказывает соотношение высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств.
В заключении анализируем адекватность корреляционно-регрессионной модели
на основании данных таблицы 18
Таблица 18
Дисперсионный анализ
dfSSMSFЗначимость
FРегрессия20,7240,361925539,8757050,091948062Остаток20,0730,03664807 Ит
ого40,797
F-фактическое значение F-критерия Фишера, значимость F-табличное, т.к. F
> значимости F, 9,876 > 0,092, то корреляционно-регрессионную модель
считать адекватной.
Заключение
1. В 2006 году рентабельность капитала снизилась на 0,11 или 10,6 % В
остальные периоды наблюдается рост данного показателя. В среднем за
анализируемый период рентабельность капитала составила 0,6. При этом в
среднем прирост рентабельности капитала составил 0,205 или 85,2%. Метод
укрупнения интервалов и скользящей средней отражает рост рентабельности
капитала с 30% до 90%. Метод выравнивания по прямой показывает общую
тенденцию роста рентабельности капитала в среднем ежегодно на 30%.
2. За анализируемый период 2002-2006 гг. наблюдается рост соотношения
высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств, за исключением 2003 и
2005 годов (в 2003 году соотношение высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств по сравнению с предшествующим периодом снизилось на
0,1 или 48,1%, а в 2005 году соотношение высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств по сравнению с предшествующим периодом снизилось на
0,17 или 43,4%.). В среднем за анализируемый период соотношение
высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств составил 0,2. При этом в
среднем прирост соотношение высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных
средств составил 0,007 или 3,1%. Как показывает метод укрупнения
интервалов данный показатель в среднем по трехлетиям увеличивается с 20%
до 30%. Согласно уравнению прямой соотношение высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств в среднем ежегодно возрастает на 1,7%.
3. На протяжении всего анализируемого периода дееспособность как по
сравнению с базисным, так и по сравнению с предшествующим периодами
снижается, за исключением 2006 года, в котором по сравнению с 2005г.
дееспособность возросла на 0,29 или 861%. В среднем за период 2002-2006
гг. дееспособность составила 0,4. При этом в среднем прирост
дееспособности снизился на -0,093 или -17,3%. Согласно расчётам
дееспособность снижается в среднем по трехлетиям с 50% до 20%. Формула
уравнения прямой показывает общую тенденцию снижения дееспособности
ежегодно в среднем на 10%.
4. Между рентабельностью и дееспособность наблюдается умеренная
взаимосвязь, а между рентабельностью и соотношением высоколиквидных
активов и привлеченных средств – тесная обратная взаимосвязь.
5.Множественный R- множественный коэффициент корреляции равен 0,853, так
как значение находится в пределах 0,7-0,9, то между рентабельностью,
дееспособностью и показателем соотношения высоколиквидных активов и
привлеченных средств наблюдается тесная взаимосвязь. R2- множественный
коэффициент детерминации равен 0,908, показывает, что изменение прибыли
зависит от изменения дееспособности соотношением высоколиквидных
активов и привлеченных средств на 90,8% , влияние неучтенных факторов
составляет 9,1%.
6. По результатам расчетов было получено уравнение регрессии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0,877-1,463х1+1
,112х2. При увеличении дееспособности на 1, рентабельность снижается на
1,463; при увеличении соотношения высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных
средств на 1, рентабельность возрастает на 1,112 .
7. При расчёте коэффициентов эластичности и -коэффициентов были
получены следующие результаты: при увеличении дееспособности на 1%
рентабельность снижается на 146,3%; а при увеличении показателя
соотношения высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств на 1% – на
111,2%; наибольшее влияние на динамику изменения рентабельности
оказывает соотношение высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных средств.
8. Т.к. F-фактическое значение F-критерия Фишера > значимости
F-табличное, 9,876 > 0,092, то корреляционно-регрессионную модель
считать адекватной.
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деятельности. – М., 2005 г., с 216.
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Симчеры. – М., 1999,с 14.
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Приложение 1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d077130021000000000000005400610068006f006d006100546d13000000265b3c11295b
c06d130098a842007c6d13001958265be0a942002ca8420064a8420008a84200fcffffff
a700000000040000c50000004c6e13001354265b000042002f54265b4cac420060701300
08a842000000000000000100010002007c7ff177c183f177aa0c0a0b5c000000286e1300
c0bbf6000c6e1300def900306476000800000000250000000c0000000300000025000000
0c0000000d000080250000000c00000003000000250000000c0000000d00008025000000
0c00000003000000520000007001000004000000f3ffffff000000000000000000000000
bc020000000000cc0000000041007200690061006c002000430079007200000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
00000000000000000000000064760008000000004c0e0102000000000000000000000000
b4df1300d0e013007800000080000000fa0700004c9d3531b0df130001000000bc020000
0d00000014000000b4df13006eae0030f494b100e4df130014000000d0e01300ace11300
00000000f3ffffff000000000000000000000000bc020000000000cc0000000041007200
690061006c00200043007900720000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000060000002200000000000000
100000000d000000030000007c7ff177c183f1773f0f0a025c000000e4de1300f494b100
c8de1300def900306476000800000000250000000c00000004000000250000000c000000
0d000080250000000c00000004000000250000000c0000000d000080250000000c000000
04000000250000000c0000000d000080250000000c00000004000000250000000c000000
0d000080250000000c00000004000000250000000c00000007000080250000000c000000
00000080250000000c0000000d000080220000000c000000ffffffff2100000008000000
250000000c00000004000000250000000c00000005000080250000000c00000001000000
190000000c000000ffffff00180000000c000000000000001e0000001800000000000000
0000000081010000ae000000250000000c00000007000080250000000c00000000000080
250000000c0000000d000080220000000c000000ffffffff210000000800000025000000
0c00000004000000250000000c00000005000080250000000c0000000100000019000000
0c000000ffffff00180000000c000000000000001e000000180000000000000000000000
81010000ae000000260000001c0000000500000000000000000000000000000000000000
250000000c00000005000000280000000c000000010000001b0000001000000060000000
40000000140000000c0000000d000000120000000c000000020000003600000010000000
600000007e000000250000000c000000020000001b000000100000005c0000007e000000
3600000010000000640000007e0000001b000000100000005c0000006900000036000000
1000000064000000690000001b000000100000005c000000550000003600000010000000
64000000550000001b000000100000005c00000040000000360000001000000064000000
400000001b00000010000000600000006900000036000000100000007001000069000000
1b00000010000000600000006d000000360000001000000060000000650000001b000000
10000000a40000006d0000003600000010000000a4000000650000001b00000010000000
e80000006d0000003600000010000000e8000000650000001b000000100000002c010000
6d00000036000000100000002c010000650000001b00000010000000700100006d000000
36000000100000007001000065000000250000000c00000007000080250000000c000000
00000080250000000c0000000d000080220000000c000000ffffffff2100000008000000
250000000c00000002000000250000000c00000005000080250000000c00000005000000
190000000c000000ffffff00180000000c000000000000001e0000001800000005000000
050000007c010000a9000000250000000c00000007000080250000000c00000000000080
250000000c0000000d000080220000000c000000ffffffff210000000800000025000000
0c00000002000000250000000c00000005000080250000000c0000000500000019000000
0c000000ffffff00180000000c000000000000001e000000180000005d0000003d000000
7701000084000000250000000c00000007000080250000000c0000000000008025000000
0c0000000d000080220000000c000000ffffffff2100000008000000250000000c000000
02000000250000000c00000005000080250000000c00000005000000190000000c000000
ffffff00180000000c000000000000001e000000180000005d0000003d00000074010000
81000000250000000c000000050000801b000000100000004e0100006a00000027000000
1800000001000000000000000000800000000000250000000c0000000100000026000000
1c0000000600000000000000010000000000000000008000250000000c00000006000000
280000000c00000005000000180000000c00000000008000190000000c00000000000000
140000000c0000000d000000120000000c0000000200000056000000300000004b010000
67000000510100006d000000050000004e01670051016a004e016d004b016a004e016700
250000000c00000007000080250000000c00000000000080250000000c0000000d000080
220000000c000000ffffffff2100000008000000250000000c0000000200000025000000
0c00000001000000250000000c00000006000000190000000c0000000000000018000000
0c000000000080001e000000180000005d0000003d00000074010000810000001b000000
100000001f01000072000000140000000c0000000d000000120000000c00000002000000
56000000300000001c0100006f0000002201000075000000050000001f016f0022017200
1f0175001c0172001f016f00250000000c00000007000080250000000c00000000000080
250000000c0000000d000080220000000c000000ffffffff210000000800000025000000
0c00000002000000250000000c00000001000000250000000c0000000600000019000000
0c00000000000000180000000c000000000080001e000000180000005d0000003d000000
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120000000c000000020000005600000030000000d20000006d000000d800000073000000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ff0005000000090200000000040000002c010000070000001604ac0032019300b9000400
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ffff030000001e00040000002d010700040000002d010000040000002d01090005000000
0102ffffff0005000000090200000000040000002c01000007000000160484002b004600
12000400000004010d0004000000020101001c000000fb02f2ff000084038403bc020000
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0000040000002d01080012000000320a8200150007000000cef1f2e0f2eae8000b000800
06000800070007000900040000002d01070004000000f0010800040000002d0106000400
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ffff030000001e00040000002d010700040000002d010000040000002d01090005000000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090200000000050000000102ffffff00040000002d010800040000002d01060004000000
2701ffff030000000000
Приложение 2
Исходные данные
20022003200420052006Прибыль, млн.руб
2016250226500178163201445Собственный капитал,млн.руб
266332765635246178163225450денежные
средства,млн.руб2932015011164733194422210305Ссуды
млн.руб134121071431821321341298605Кредиты млн.руб00000Активы
млн.руб142586140305412586860883901236Операционные доходы
млн.руб6373107561111622317689Операционные расходы
млн.руб910619088324236505923545Доходы банка всего,
тыс.р.2149513177246873419378633Заемные средства всего,
тыс.р.296414897684488122006155988
Расчетные данные для корреляции
УхХ1Х2Х3Х420020,0760,2060,0940,70072,52020030,090,1070,7640,5630,0942004
0,7520,3990,4410,34329,22020051,0000,2260,0160,03428,03020060,8940,2330,
1090,32750,410
Приложение 3
Динамика изменения показателей рентабельности капитала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Динамика изменения соотношения высоколиквидных активов и привлеченных
средств
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050000000102ffffff00040000002d010200040000002701ffff030000000000
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