Розробка інформаційно-аналітичного забезпечення аналізу стану та динаміки розвитку злочинності: Автореф. дис… канд. техн. наук / Ю.В. Гнусов, Ун-т в

I?I?NOA?NOAI AIOO??OI?O NI?AA OE?A?IE

OI?AA?NEOAO AIOO??OI?O NI?AA

Ia i?aaao ?oeiieno

AIONIA TH??e Aaea??eiae/

OAeE 681. 51.015

?IC?IAEA ?IOI?IAOe?EII-AIAE?OE*IIAI

CAAACIA*AIIss AIAE?CO NOAIO OA

AeEIAI?EE ?ICAEOEO CEI*EIIINO?

05.13.06 — aaoiiaoeciaai? nenoaie oi?aae?iiy

oa i?ia?aneai? ?ioi?iaoe?ei? oaoiieia??

A A O I ? A O A ? A O

aeena?oaoe?? ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa

oaoi?/ieo iaoe

Oa?e?a — 1998

Aeena?oaoe??th ? ?oeiien.

?iaioo aeeiiaii a Oi?aa?neoao? aioo??oi?o ni?aa.

Iaoeiaee ea??aiee: aeieoi? o?ceei-iaoaiaoe/ieo iaoe, i?ioani?, ssEIAEAA
NA?A?E ANAAIEIAeIAE*, ia/aeueiee oaeoeueoaoo oi?aae?iiy oa ?ioi?iaoeee,
Oi?aa??neoao aioo??oi?o ni?aa (i.Oa?eia)

Io?oe?ei? iiiiaioe:

aeieoi? oaoi?/ieo iaoe, aeioeaio CAOeA?EEssIEE IEEIEA IAEAIO?EIAE*,

i?ioani? eaoaae?e ?ioi?iaoe?eieo nenoai ? oaoiieia?e a ae?yeueiino? IAN,
Oi?aa?neoao aioo??oi?o ni?aa (i.Oa?eia)

eaiaeeaeao oaoi?/ieo iaoe, aeioeaio OAeIAAIEI NA?A?E A?EAI??EIAE*,
aeioeaio

eaoaae?e AII Oa?eianueeiai aea?aeaaiiai oaoii/iiai oiiaa?neoaoo
?aaeiiaeaeo?iiiee

I?ia?aeia onoaiiaa — Oa?e?anueeee aea?aeaaiee iie?oaoi?/iee oi?aa?neoao,
eaoaae?a aaoiiaoeciaaieo nenoai oi?aae?iiy

Caoeno a?aeaoaeaoueny “15”__n?/iy___ 1999 ?ieo i _14__ aiaeei? ia
can?aeaii? niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii?

?aaee E 64.700.02 a Oi?aa?neoao? aioo??oi?o ni?aa ca aae?anith: 310080,
i. Oa?e?a, i?iniaeo 50-??//y N?N?, 27.

C aeena?oaoe??th iiaeia iciaeiieoeny o a?ae?ioaoe? Oi?aa?neoaoo
aioo??oi?o ni?aa ca aae?anith: 310080, i. Oa?e?a, i?iniaeo 50 — ??//y
N?N?, 27.

Aaoi?aoa?ao ?ic?neaiee “3” a?oaeiy 1998 ?ieo.

A/aiee nae?aoa?

niaoe?ae?ciaaii? a/aii? ?aaee ?.A. A??noiaa

CAAAEUeIA OA?AEOA?ENOEEA ?IAIOE

Aeooaeuei?noue oaie.

Iaeiei c i??i?eoaoieo iai?yie?a, aecia/aieo «Eiiieaeniith i?ia?aiith ii
ai?iouea? c? cei/eii?noth ia 1996 – 2000 ??.» (ii. 71, 72) ? ?ic?iaea
?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa, yea
i?ecia/aia aeey eiiieaeniiai aeei?enoaiiy nee oa cania?a IAN Oe?a?ie ii
iiia?aaeaeaiith i?aaiii?ooaiue oa ai?ioueae c? cei/eii?noth.

Ceiii?noue ? neeaaeiith aeeiai?/iith nenoaiith oa aieiae?? oei /e ?ioei
nooiaiai iia?oe?eiinoi, ui iiaea ?icaeyaeaoeny aeaicia/ii: ye
?ia?oe?ei?noue neeaaeaieo o /an? oaiaeaioe?e ?icaeoeo, ? ye
iia?oe?ei?noue neeaaeaieo o i?inoi?? aca?iica’yce?a ie?aieo aeae?a
cei/eiiino?. O ca’yceo c oeei ia ia?oee ieai aeoiaeyoue caaea/?
iiaeaethaaiiy oa i?iaiicoaaiiy cei/eiiino? ia iniia?
oa?eoi??aeueii-/aniaiai i?eioeeio ?? oi?ioaaiiy.

Oaeei /eiii, ?ic?iaea ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co
noaio oa aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? ? iaeaaaeeeaei caaaeaiiyi i?e
noai?aii? nenoai aiae?co e?ei?iieia?/ii? ianoaiiaee, ui neeaeany, oa
oaiaeaioe?e ?? ?icaeoeo. Oaea caaacia/aiiy noaiiaeoue niaith noeoii?noue
i?iaiicoth/eo iiaeaeae ??ciiiai?oii? i??e aeaoae?caoe??, ia?aaaaa yei? a
?? aio/eino? ? aaeaioiaaiino? aei oiia, ui ci?iththoueny, iiaeeeaino?
cai?ie iaei??? /e aeae?eueeio iiaeaeae aac ci?ie caaaeueii? no?oeoo?e
nenoaie. Nenoaia iiaeaeae aeicaiey? eiio?iethaaoe aioo??oi? ca’ycee
i?ae ??cieie aeaeaie cei/eiiino? ? iieacieeaie aeeiai?ee ?? ?icaeoeo, ui
iniaeeai aaaeeeai aeey ?icoi?iiy iaoai?cio oi?ioaaiiy cei/eiiino? ?
ae?iaeaiiy caoiae?a uiaei ?? iiia?aaeaeaiiy.

Iaoith ?iaioe ? ?ic?iaea ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co
no?oeoo?e, noaio oa aeeiai?ee cei/eiiino? c iaoith iia?aoeaiiai ?
ia?niaeoeaiiai e?ei?iieia?/iiai aiae?co iiaeeeaeo oaiaeaioe?e ??
?icaeoeo.

Caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy:

aiae?c no?oeoo?e cei/eiiino? oa aeyaeaiiy iaea?eueo nooo?aeo oaeoi??a,
ui aieeaathoue ia ?? ??aaiue;

iiaoaeiaa oa aiae?c nenoaie iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?, ui i?iaiicothoueny;

?ic?iaea aeai?eoi?a iiaeaethaaiiy oa i?iaiicoaaiiy ?cieueiaaieo oa
aca?iica’ycaieo iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?; aiae?c aeeiai?ee cei/eiiino? oa
aeyaeaiiy oaiaeaioe?e ?? ?icaeoeo;

?ic?iaea no?oeoo?e ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co noaio
oa aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?;

?ic?iaea iaoiaeeee aiae?co no?oeoo?e, noaio oa aeeiai?ee cei/eiiino? c
aeei?enoaiiyi cia/aiue a?aeiia?aeieo iieaciee?a, ui i?iaiicothoueny.

Iaoiaee aeine?aeaeaiiy. Aeine?aeaeaiiy, ui i?iaiaeyoueny a ?iaio?,
caniiaai? ia eiiieaeniiio aeei?enoaii? iaoiae?a aaeaioeaii?
?aeaioeo?eaoe??, ei?aeyoe?eiiai oa ?aa?an?eiiai aiae?co, iaoaiaoe/iiai
i?ia?aioaaiiy oa oai??? iao?eoeue. Aeinoia??i?noue io?eiaieo
?acoeueoao?a i?aeoaa?aeaeo?oueny aenia?eiaioaeueiith ia?aa??eith
i?aoeacaeaoiino? neioaciaaieo aeai?eoi?a.

Ia caoeno aeiinyoueny:

aeai?eoie i?iaiicoaaiiy nooo?ai ianoaoe?iia?ieo /aniaeo ?yae?a, ui
iienothoue ci?ie iieaciee?a cei/eiiino? a oiiaao aeao?oeeoo ai??i?ii?
?ioi?iaoe??;

iaoiaee iiaoaeiae ocaaaeueiaieo iiaeaeae aca?iica’ycaieo iieaciee?a
cei/eiiino? oa iaoiaee iiaoaeiae iioeiaeueieo i?iaiic?a iieaciee?a
cei/eiiino?;

iaoiaeeea ioe?iee noaio, no?oeoo?e ? aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? ia
iniia? oa?eoi??aeueii-/aniaiai i?eioeeio ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?.

Iaoeiaa iiaecia aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe iieyaa? a oiio, ui:

?ic?iaeaii no?oeoo?o ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co
noaio ? aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? oa cae?eniaii no?oeoo?ecaoe?th
caaea/, ui ae??oothoueny i?ae?icae?eaie i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa;

?ic?iaeaii aeai?eoie i?iaiicoaaiiy nooo?ai ianoaoe?iia?ieo /aniaeo
?yae?a, ui iienothoue ci?ie iieaciee?a cei/eiiino? a oiiaao aeao?oeeoo
ai??i?ii? ?ioi?iaoe??;

cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiaee iiaoaeiae ocaaaeueiaieo iiaeaeae aca?iica’ycaieo
iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?; cai?iiiiiaaii ? aeine?aeaeaii ?aeo?aioiee
aeai?eoi iiaoaeiae iioeiaeueiiai i?iaiico, ui yaey? niaith ocaaaeueiaiiy
aeai?eoio oeio Ea/iaaea aeey nenoaie iieaciee?a;

cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiaeeeo aiae?co no?oeoo?e, noaio oa aeeiai?ee
cei/eiiino? c aeei?enoaiiyi cia/aiue a?aeiia?aeieo iieaciee?a, ui
i?iaiicothoueny.

I?aeoe/ia oe?ii?noue ?iaioe iieyaa? a oiio, ui ?ic?iaeai? aaeaioeai?
aeai?eoie aeicaieythoue oni?oii ae??ooaaoe oe?iea eiei caaea/
i?iaiicoaaiiy aeey ?aaeueieo nooo?ai ianoaoe?iia?ieo /aniaeo ?yae?a, ui
oa?aeoa?ecothoue ci?io iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?. ?icaeyiooi iniiai?
iniaeeaino? neioaciaaieo aeai?eoi?a, iaaeaii ?aeiiaiaeaoe?? ii ?o
i?aeoe/iiio canoinoaaiith ? ?aoe?iiaeueiiio aeai?o ia?aiao??a.

?aae?caoe?y ?acoeueoao?a ?iaioe. Iaea?aeai? o ?iaio? ?acoeueoaoe aoee
aeei?enoai? i?e aiae?co noaio oa i?iaiicoaaiiy aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo
cei/eiiino? a i. Oa?e?a oa Oa?e?anueeee iaeano? .

Iaoeia? iieiaeaiiy, aeniiaee ? ?aeiiaiaeaoe??, aeeeaaeai? a
aeena?oaoe??, aoee aeei?enoai? i?e i?aeaioiaoe? eo?n?a «Iiaeae? ?
iaoiaee i?iaiicoaaiiy», «Iniiae noaoenoeee», «I?aaiaa noaoenoeea» ia
eaoaae?? i?eeeaaeii? iaoaiaoeee Oi?aa?neoaoo aioo??oi?o ni?aa.

Ai?iaaoe?y ?iaioe. Iniiai? ?acoeueoaoe aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe
aeiiia?aeaeenue oa iaaiai?thaaeenue ia eiiieaenieo can?aeaiiyo ii
ai?iouea? c? cei/eii?noth, ia nai?ia?ao «I?aaiaa e?aa?iaoeea»
Oi?aa?neoaoo aioo??oi?o ni?aa, ia I?aeia?iaei?e eiioa?aioe?? «Oai??y ?
oaoi?ea ia?aaea/?, i?eeiio oa ia?iaee ?ioi?iaoe??» (Ooaina, 1995 ?.);
ia 3-e i?aeia?iaei?e eiioa?aioe?? «Oai??y ? oaoi?ea ia?aaea/?, i?eeiio
oa ia?iaee ?ioi?iaoe??» (Ooaina, 1997?.).

Ioae?eaoe??. Iniiai? iieiaeaiiy aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe iioae?eiaai? a 9
ae?oeiaaieo noaooyo (1 iiiia?ao??, 4 noaooyo, 2 aeaiiiiaaieo oa
aiioiaaieo a iaoeiaeo aeaeaiiyo noaooyo, 2 oacao).

Iniaenoee aianie aaoi?a. On? ?acoeueoao? aeena?oaoe?eii? ?iaioe io?eiaii
ca iniaenoith o/anoth aaoi?a. O i?aoeyo, iaienaieo o ni?aaaoi?noa?,
aeena?oaioia? iaeaaeeoue: [1] — aeai?eoi? oa iaoiae? i?iaiicoaaiiy
cei/eiiino?, [4, 6] — aaeaioeai? aeai?eoi? i?iaiicoaaiiy /aniaeo ?yae?a
iieaciee?a, [5] — iaoiaeeea ioe?iee aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?, [7]
— iaoiaee iiaoaeiae i?iaiicoth/eo iiaeaeae, [8, 9] — ?ic?iaea noaie
aiae?co iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?.

No?oeoo?a oa ianya ?iaioe. Aeena?oaoe?y neeaaea?oueny c anooio,
/ioe?ueio ?icae?e?a oa aeniiae?a, ai?uo? 20 ?enoie?a, ia?ae?e iineeaiue
c 119 iaeiaioaaiue, caaaeueiei ianyaii 159 noi??iie.

INIIAIEE CI?NO ?IAIOE

O anooi? iaa?oioiaaii aeooaeuei?noue i?iaeaie, ui ?icaeyaea?oueny a
?iaio?; noi?ioeueiaaii iaoo ? caaea/? aeine?aeaeaiiy; iieacaii iaoeiao
iiaecio oa i?aeoe/io oe?ii?noue io?eiaieo ?acoeueoao?a; iieacaii
caaaeueio no?oeoo?o aeena?oaoe?? oa aeaii ei?ioeee ci?no eiaeiiai
?icae?eo.

O ia?oiio ?icae?e? iieacaii cia/aiiy i?ioeano i?iaiicoaaiiy aeey caaea/
oi?aae?iiy ? eiio?ieth ca ae?yeuei?noth IAN, noi?ioeueiaaii iniiai?
caaea/?, ui aeieeathoue a i?ioean? aiae?co, iiaeaethaaiiy oa
i?iaiicoaaiiy cei/eiiino?.

Cei/eii?noue ? neeaaeiith aeeiai?/iith nenoaiith, i?e iiaeaethaaii? ?
i?iaiicoaaii? yei? aeieea? iecea i?iaeai:

?noioia ianoaoe?iia?i?noue /aniaeo ?yae?a iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?, ui
coiiaeaia ia o?eueee ianoaoe?iia?i?noth ia?aiao??a, aea e
ianoaoe?iia?i?noth no?oeoo?e yaeua (ianoaoe?iia?i?noue no?oeoo?e
ii?iaeaeo?oueny ye?nieie ci?iaie cei/eiiino? );

aeo?aei? ?yaee ? ei?ioeeie, ui ia aeicaiey? canoinoaaoe ?nioth/?
iaoaiaoe/i? iaoiaee, caniiaai? ia aia?ao? eeane/ii? iaoaiaoe/ii?
noaoenoeee;

ine?eueee ??ciiiai?oi? aeaee cei/eiiino? ? aca?iica’ycaieie, iaoiaee
i?iaiicoaaiiy ?cieueiaaieo ?yae?a a?aeiia?aeieo iieaciee?a ia caaaeaee ?
aoaeoeaieie, a oiio aeieea? iaiao?aei?noue ?ic?iaee iaoiae?a
i?iaiicoaaiiy, ui a?oioothoueny ia canoinoaaii? ocaaaeueiaieo iiaeaeae
aca?iica’ycaieo iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?.

O ca’yceo c oeei, caniae iiaeoethaaiiy ? i?iaiicoaaiiy, caniiaai? ia
aeei?enoaii? o?aaeeoe?eiiai aia?aoo iaoaiaoe/ii? noaoenoeee, ?
iaaoaeoeaieie, ? ia ia?oee ieai aeoiae?oue caaea/a ooai?aiiy
?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co noaio oa aeeiai?ee
?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?, yea aeei?enoiao? aeey ?iaioe a oiiaao aeao?oeeoo ?
iaoi/iinoi ?ioi?iaoe?? aaeaioeai? caniae ia?iaee aeaieo ?
i?iaiicoaaiiy.

A caaaeueiiio aeaeyae? caaea/a iiaeaethaaiiy ? i?iaiicoaaiiy
?cieueiaaieo iieaciee?a cei/eiiino? iiaea aooe noi?ioeueiaaia ye caaea/a
iiaoaeiae i?iaiicoth/i? iiaeae? (i?aaeeeoi?a) aeaeyaeo

(1)

— iia?aoi? ia?aoai?aiiy ao?aeiiai ?yaeo, ui i?noeoue cia/aiiy
iieacieea, a ?yae, ui i?iaiico?oueny; g [n] — ?yae, ca’ycaiee c oei,
ui i?iaiico?oueny, ? iaaiei /eiii aieeaa? ia iueiai; n — iioi/iee
aeene?aoiee /an; e- aeiionee i?iaiico; l — ia??iae oia?aaeaeaiiy; a —
/eneiaee ia?aiao?, ui aecia/a? aeanoeaino? ooieoe?? f((). Ia?aiao?e
ooieoe?? (1) aecia/athoueny oeyoii a?aeiia?aeii? ia?iaee iayaii?
?ioi?iaoe?? c iaoith i?i?i?caoe?? aea?aiiai e?eoa??th ?aeaioeo?eaoe?? Q,
yeee ? neaey?iith ooieoe??th ci?iieo, ui aoiaeyoue a f(().

A e?ioe? ?icae?eo noi?ioeueiaaia iaoa aeena?oaoe?eiiai aeine?aeaeaiiy ?
aeae?eai? eiie?aoi? caaea/?, ye? iaiao?aeii ae??oeoe aeey ??
aeinyaiaiiy.

A ae?oaiio ?icae?e? ?icaeyiooi ?ieue ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai
caaacia/aiiy a i?aeaeuaii? aoaeoeaiino? ae?yeueiino? i?ae?icae?e?a
i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa.

?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/ia caaacia/aiiy i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa iiaeiii
noai?thaaoeny oeyoii ae??oaiiy iniiaieo eean?a caaea/, a naia:
?ioaa?aoe?y ?ioi?iaoe??, ui oi?io?oueny i?aaiioi?iiieie i?aaiaie, aeey
oi?ioaaiiy ?aeeieo ?ioi?iaoe?eieo oiiae?a oa caaacia/aiiy ia ?o aac?
iiaiioe ?ioi?iiaaiino? ? eii?aeeiaoe?? ae?yeueiino? ??cieo i?ae?icae?e?a
IAN; oaiaoe/ia ? / aai noaoenoe/ia ocaaaeueiaiiy iaeiie/aii?
?ioi?iaoe??, yea aeei?enoiao?oueny o aeaeyae? aeo?aeieo aeaieo i?e
i?iaaaeaii? aiae?oe/ieo aeine?aeaeaiue, aeae?eaiiy iniiaieo ye?nieo ?
e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?; eiio?ieue ca aeeiiaiiyi caoiae?a, ui
aaeeaathoueny aeey iiia?aaeaeaiiy oa ai?ioueae c? cei/eii?noth, oa ?o
aieeaii ia aeeiai?eo ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?, ye ?ioi?iaoe?eii? iniiae aeey
i?eeiyooy iiaeo ??oaiue ia an?o ??aiyo ???a?o??, a oaeiae oi?ioaaiiy
i?aenoieiaeo ?ioi?iaoe?eieo ianea?a ye iniiae aeey ioe?iee ?acoeueoao?a
?iaioe i?aaiioi?iiieo i?aai?a.

?aeeia ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/ia caaacia/aiiy aeicaiey? ia iniia? a?eueo
iiaiiai aeei?enoaiiy an?o aeaieo, ui iaaeoiaeyoue, no/anieo iaoiae?a oa
cania?a noai?eoe iniiao aeey aoaeoeaii? ?iaioe i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa
? ae?iaeaiiy aa??aio?a ea?oth/eo ae?e, yeei iaaeathoue ia?aaaao.

?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/ia caaacia/aiiy noai?th?oueny ia iniia?
?ioaa?aoe?? ooieoe?iiaeueieo, ?ioi?iaoe?eieo, aeai?eoi?/ieo,
i?ia?aiii-oaoi?/ieo cania?a ie?aieo aeaiaio?a, i?e oeueiio ?ioaa?aoe?y
ia ia? ia iao? aeoaethaaiiy ?nioth/eo ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/ieo neoaea ?
i???ioiaaia ia aeei?enoaiiy iioie?a oii?yaeeiaaii? ?ioi?iaoe?? aeey
io?eiaiiy ioe?iee noaio, i?iaiicoaaiiy aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?.

Caaea/?, ui ae??oothoueny a nenoai? i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa, iiaeia
iiae?eeoe ia /ioe?e eeane, ca?aeii aeae?eaiei oacai ia?iaee ?ioi?iaoe??.

Aei 1-ai eeano caaea/ (a?aeiia?aea? oac? “Iae?e”) a?aeiinyoueny a
iniiaiiio caaea/? ?ioi?iaoe?eiiai oa iae?eiai-noaoenoe/iiai oa?aeoa?o.

Aei 2-ai eeano caaea/ (a?aeiia?aea? oac? “Aiae?c”) a?aeiinyoueny
aiae?oe/i? caaea/? (iai?eeeaae, eiiieaen ia?iaee aeaieo c canoinoaaiiyi
cania?a iaoaiaoe/ii? noaoenoeee).

Aei 3-ai eeano caaea/ (a?aeiia?aea? oac? “I?iaiic”) a?aeiinyoueny
caaea/? ii i?iaiicoaaiith (iai?eeeaae, i?iaiicoaaiiy cei/eiiino?).

Aei 4-ai eeano caaea/ (a?aeiia?aea? oac? «Ieai») a?aeiinyoueny caaea/?
ii ieaioaaiith (iai?eeeaae caaea/a «Ieai-Eiio?ieue»).

Aoaeoeai?noue a?ae ai?iaaaeaeaiiy oaeiai ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai
caaacia/aiiy ae?aaea?oueny a nei?i/aii? oa?i?i?a ia?a?iaee ?ioi?iaoe??,
i?aeaeuaii? oi/iino? oa a??ia?aeiino? iaea?aeoaaieo aeaieo, cieaeaii?
aieeao noa’?eoeaieo oaeoi??a i?e ae?iaeaii? ??oaiue, iioei?caoe??
?icnoaiiaee nee ? cania?a oa ?ioeo e?euee?nieo ? ye?nieo iieacieeao.

No?oeoo?ia noaia ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co noaio
oa aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? iiaea aooe i?aaenoaaeaia a ianooiiiio
aeaeyae? (?en. 1).

sse ia?aeiia ?ioi?iaoe?y aeey aiae?co oa i?iaiicoaaiiy
aeei?enoiaothoueny aeai?, ui caa??aathoueny a ?ioaa?iaaieo aaieao aeaieo
(?AAe) IAN ia o?ueio ??aiyo:

Ia?oee ??aaiue — I?i?noa?noai aioo??oi?o ni?aa Oe?a?ie — yaey? niaith
oeaio?aeueiee aaie aeaieo, c yeei c’?aeiai? ia?aae? aaeocaaeo aaie?a
aeaieo Aieiaieo oi?aae?iue i?i?noa?noaa.

Ae?oaee ??aaiue neeaaea?oueny c aaie?a aeaieo caaaeueiiai ei?enooaaiiy,
aaoiiaoeciaaieo iae?eiaeo nenoai niaoe?aeueiiai i?ecia/aiiy,
?icoaoiaaieo a neoaeaao ? i?ae?icae?eao IAN E?eio, AOAN, OAN, OANO, ?
nenoaie ca’yceo c ?ioi?iaoe?eieie i?ae?icae?eaie ?aeiiieo e?i?eieo
i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa oa nenoaiith ia?oiai ??aiy.

O?ao?e ??aaiue yaey? niaith aaie aeaieo i?nueeeo ?aeiiieo e?i?eieo
i?aai?a oa ?i. i?ae?icae?e?a IAN aeey iaeiie/oaaiiy ? ia?iaee
iia?aoeaii-?icooeiai?, iae?eiai-?a?no?aoe?eii? ? niaoe?ae?ciaaii?
?ioi?iaoe?? ii iai?yieao ?iaioe i?e?oe?? oa NAO, a oaeiae nenoaio
ca’yceo c ?ioei ??aiai.

Aieiaia caaea/a ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co noaio oa
aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? nenoaie iieyaa? a oiio, uia ia iniia?
c?a?aieo ia?aeiieo aeaieo io?eiaoe iioi/io ? i?aenoieiao ?ioi?iaoe?th,
ui aoaea neeaaeaoe iniiao aeey i?aeaioiaee oi?aae?inueeeo ??oaiue a
i?aaiao aioo??oi?o ni?aa Oe?a?ie.

A o?aoueiio ?icae?e? ae??oo?oueny caaea/a iiaoaeiae aeai?eoi?a, ui
aeicaieyoue aecia/eoe no?oeoo?o ? ia?aiao?e i?iaiicoth/eo iiaeaeae
cei/eiiino?.

I?iaaaeaiee aiae?c ?nioth/eo aeai?eoi?a i?iaiicoaaiiy iieacaa, ui
iaea?eueo aoaeoeaieie iaoiaeaie i?iaiicoaaiiy ?cieueiaaieo iieaciee?a
cei/eiiino? ? iaoiaee aeniiiaioe?eiiai caeaaeaeoaaiiy, iiaeae?
Aiena-Aeaeaie?ina, a?aae??ioi? i?ioeaaeo?e ? iaeiie?ieia? aaeaioeai?
aeai?eoie.

?en. 1.

Iniiaia ?aeay iaoiaeo aeniiiaioe?eiiai caeaaeaeoaaiiy iieyaa? a oiio, ui
ii aeaiei ?yaeo x[n], k=1, 2, …, n iio??aii neeanoe i?iaiic ia iiiaioe
/ano n+l oaeei /eiii, uia a?eueo i?ci?i niinoa?aaeaiiyi i?enaithaaeeny a
a?eueo? aaae o ii??aiyii? c a?eueo ?aii?ie niinoa?aaeaiiyie.
Aeniiiaioe?eia caeaaeaeoaaiiy aeicaiey? cae?enieoe ioe?ieo eiao?oe??io?a
iie?iii?iaeueiiai i?aaeeeoi?a oeyoii i?i?i?caoe?? e?eoa??th

(2)

ii j j , ui ? aea?aaeaioiei e?eoa??th i?i?ioio caaaeaii? noie
eaaae?ao?a. I?iaiic a on?o aeiaaeeao io?eiothoue ca?aeii ae?aco

, (3)

I?e ?iaio? a ?aaeueiiio ianooaa? /ano aeioe?eueii aeei?enoiaoaaoe
?aeo?aioi? ioe?iee eiao?oe??io?a, ui iathoue aeaeyae

, (4)

(5)

(6)

oa i?iaiice i?ioeano

, (7)

, (8)

(9)

aeey iiaeae? ioeueiaiai ii?yaeeo, e?i?eii? oa ia?aaie?/ii? iiaeaeae
a?aeiia?aeii. Ana aeuacaaaeaia iiaea aooe aeei?enoaii aeey i?iaiicoaaiiy
?cieueiaaieo ?yae?a iieaciee?a cei/eiiino? c iie?iii?iaeueieie
o?aiaeaie.

Iie?iii?iaeuei? i?aaeeeoi?e, iiaoaeiaai? c canoinoaaiiyi
aeniiiaioe?eiiai caeaaeaeoaaiiy, aeathoue i?eeiyoi? i?iaiice /aniaeo
?yae?a o oiio aeiaaeeo, yeui eieeaaiiy oeeo ?yae?a iacia/i?. Ia
i?aeoeoe? iai iae/ano?oa aeiaiaeeoueny iaoe ni?aao c /aniaeie ?yaeaie
iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?, ye? neeueii eieeaathoueny. I?e aeei?enoaii?
iie?iii?iaeueieo i?aaeeeoi??a caeaaeaeothoueny eieeaaiiy ?yae?a,
a?aooaaiiy yeeo iiaea aooe iaiao?aeiei aeey i?aaeeueiiai i?eeiyooy
??oaiue. A oaeeo neooaoe?yo aeey i?iaiicoaaiiy cei/eiiino? aeioe?eueii
canoiniaoaaoe iaoiaee, a yeeo i?iaiic aaaeaoueny ia ?cieueiaaii ii
o?aiaeo ? aeiaaeeia?e eiiiiiaio?, a a ?aieao ia’?aeiaii? iiaeae?.
Aaeaeaaoiei iaoiaeii aeey ?ica’ycaiiy oaeiai ?iaeo caaea/ ? iaoiae
Aiena-Aeaeaie?ina.

, oi iiaeaeue aaoi?aa?an?? caieno?oueny

, (10)

, (11)

aea j(B)=1-j1(B)-j2(B)2 -…-jp(B)p , a B — iia?aoi? cnoao iacaae, ui
aecia/a?oueny ye BX[n]=X[n-1] (BmX[n]=X[n-m]) . Uia iiaoaeoaaoe oaeee
i?aaeeeoi?, iaiao?aeii a?aeooeaoe p+2 iaa?aeiieo ia?aiao?a: m, j1
,…, jp , sx2 , aea sx2 — aeenia?n?y «a?eiai» ooio x.

O oiio aeiaaeeo, yeui ?yae, ui aea/a?oueny, i?iyaey? yaio
ianoaoe?iia?i?noue (a oea aeiaaeie, ui iae/ano?oa cono??/a?oueny ia
i?aeoeoe?), eiai c?o/ii i?aaenoaaeoe ocaaaeueiaiei iia?aoi?ii
aaoi?aa?an?? F(B). A ocaaaeueiaiiio iia?aoi?? aaoi?aa?an?? iaeei aai
aeae?eueea ioe?a iie?iiia F(B) (oiaoi iaeei aai aeae?eueea ei?ai?a
??aiyiiy F(B)=0) aei??aiththoue iaeeieoe?. Iia?aoi? F(B) c?o/ii
caienoaaoe o aeaeyae?

, (12)

aea j (B) — noaoe?iia?iee iia?aoi? aaoi?aa?an??. I?e oeueiio
ocaaaeueiaia iiaeaeue, ui iieno? ianoaoe?iia?iee i?ioean, ia? aeaeyae:

, (13)

, (14)

aea w[n]=Ddx[n]. Oaeei /eiii, ianoaoe?iia?iee i?ioean ie aoaeaii
iienoaaoe i?aaeeeoi?ii, a yeiio d-a ??cieoey i?ioeano (aiaeia
iio?aeii? iaia?a?aiiai i?ioeano) ? noaoe?iia?iith. Ooo p+q+d+2
iaa?aeiieo, ye? ne?ae aecia/eoe c niinoa?aaeaiue.

Ao?aeiith ?ioi?iaoe??th aeey iiaoaeiae i?aaeeeoi?a neoaeaoue na?aaei?
cia/aiiy ?yaeo, eiai aeenia?n?y oa aaoiei?aeyoe?eia ooieoe?y. ?o
aea??eia? cia/aiiy aecia/athoueny ianooiieie ae?acaie:

, (15)

, (16)

, i = 0, 1,…,m , (17)

. (18)

a (12) ciaoiaeyoueny ?ica’ycaiiyi nenoaie ??aiyiue THea-Oiea?a

, (19)

aea O=( j11, j22, … , jpp)T , rp = (r1 ,… , rp)T , Rp- iao?eoey
Ei?aia.

Iaaaaeaia i?ioeaaeo?a iiaoaeiae i?aaeeeoi??a ia? oo ia?aaaao, ui
aeicaiey? i?iaiaeeoe iiia?aaei?e aiae?c i?ioean?a, ui aea/athoueny, ?
aecia/aoe no?oeoo?o i?aaeeeoi?a ia iniia? ei?aeyoe?eiiai aiae?co.

Noi?ioeth?ii caaea/o neioaco aaeaioeaieo aeai?eoi?a. Iaoae
i?iaiicoth/o iiaeaeue cei/eiiino? caaeaii ae?acii (1) ? caaeaii
e?eoa??e iioeiaeueiino?, ae?aaeaiee o aeaeyae?

(20)

a yai?e oi?i? iaa?aeiiee. Caaea/a iieyaa? o aecia/aii? iioeiaeueiiai
aaeoi?a F*, ui aeinoaaey? aeno?aioi ooieoe?iiaeo (20). ?aeeii iiaeeeaee
oeyo ?ica’ycaiiy oe??? caaea/? iia’ycaiee c niinoa?aaeaiiyi
?aae?caoe?e ? ?o ia?iaeith ca aeiiiiiaith ?iia??i?nieo ?oa?aoeaieo
iaoiae?a.

Caieoaii oiiao iioeiaeueiino? o aeaeyae?

, (21)

yaey? niaith a?aae??io Q(X, F) ii F.

Eiia??iini? ?oa?aoeai? iaoiaee a caaaeueiiio aeiaaeeo iathoue aeaeyae

. (22)

Iaoae ioe?iea (i?iaiic) x[n] i?aaenoaaeaia e?i?eiith oi?iith

, (23)

aea F[n-1]=(j1[n-1], j2[n-1] ,…,jp[n-1])T, X[n,p] =(x[n-1], …,
x[n-p])T .

Aeei?enoaiiy eaaae?aoe/iiai e?eoa??th ?aeaioeo?eaoe?? oa
a?aae??ioii? i?ioeaaeo?e iano?ithaaiiy eiao?oe??io?a
i?aaeeeoi?a aeicaiey? io?eiaoe aeai?eoi aeaeyaeo

, (24)

, ianeeaaeii io?eiaoe iioeiaeueiee aeai?eoi iano?ithaaiiy
eiao?oe??io?a i?aaeeeoi?a

, (25)

ui ni?aiaaea? c aeai?eoiii Ea/iaaea.

Aeey caaacia/aiiy noaeino? oa i?aeaeuaiiy oi/iino? i?iaiico /aniai?
iine?aeiaiino? x[n] a oiiaao ei?aeueiaaiino? ?? ie?aieo niinoa?aaeaiue
aeioe?eueii nei?enoaoeny iaoiaeii ?aaoey?ecaoe??, o a?aeiia?aeiino? c
yeei cai?noue cae/aeiiai eaaae?aoe/iiai ooieoe?iiaeo i?i?i?co?oueny
ooieoe?iiae

. (26)

aea a ? 0 — ia?aiao? ?aaoey?ecaoe??, Q(F[n]) — ?aaoey?ecoth/ee
(caeaaeaeoth/ee) ooieoe?iiae. Oiae? a?aae??ioiee i?ioean i?i?i?caoe??
e?eoa??th (26) iieno?oueny ae?acii

. (27)

Ia?aiao?ecaoe?y io?eiaiiai ?aaoey?eciaaiiai aeai?eoio oeio Ea/iaaea
ca aeiiiiiaith iiiaeieea ?aeaenaoe?? b i?e iaa’yceao
(x[n]-FT[n]X[n,p]) aeicaiey? ae??ooaaoe caaea/o iioeiaeueiiai
i?iaiicoaaiiy caeiio ci?ie /aniai? iine?aeiaiino? x[n] o aeiaaeeo ??
ae?aeoo.

Cei/eii?noue neeaaea?oueny i?ae aieeaii /enaeueieo ? ??ciiiai?oieo
oaeoi??a. sse?niee aiae?c aeicaiey? a eiaeiiio eiie?aoiiio aeiaaeeo
anoaiiaeoe, ye? naia oaeoi?e aieeaathoue ia noai ? aeeiai?eo
?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?. Ca aeiiiiiaith e?euee?niiai aiae?co
anoaiiaeth?oueny i??a aca?iica’yceo oeeo oaeoi??a. Aeyaeai?
aca?iica’ycee ae?aaeathoueny o oi?i? ocaaaeueiaieo iaoaiaoe/ieo
iiaeaeae.

Caieoaii ooieoe?th, ui anoaiiaeth? ca’ycee i?ae iieacieeaie, o aeaeyae?

X = GY* + X, (28)

aea X = (x[1], …, x[n])T, Y* = (y0*, y1*, …, yq*)T, X = (x[1],…,
x[n])T,

.

I?aaenoaaeyth/e ocaaaeueiaio iiaeaeue aeey iieaciee?a cei/eiiino? o
aeaeyae? (28), ie oei naiei ?icaeyaeaee aieea iiiaeeie oaeoi??a ia
?aeeiee a?aeaoe. I?e oaeiio i?aeoiae? caaea/a i?iaiicoaaiiy
iiiaeeie iieaciee?a aoaea ae??ooaaoeny ca aeiiiiiaith iiiaeeie iiaeaeae,
i?e/iio aieea ??cieo a?aeaoe?a iaeei ia ?ioee ia a?aoiao?oueny. A oie
aea /an cei/eii?noue oa?aeoa?eco?oueny iiiaeeiith iieaciee?a, ye?
iiaeii? i?iaiicoaaoeny iaeii/anii ? a o?niiio aca?iica’yceo. ?icaeyiaii
iiaeaeue aeaeyaeo

, (29)

.

Aaaaeaii aei ?icaeyaeo e?eoa??e ?aeaioeo?eaoe??, caniiaaiee ia
aeniiiaioe?eiiio caaaeoaaii? aeaieo ca?aeii ?o “a?eo”.

. (30)

E?eoa??e (30) iiaea aooe caienaiee ianooiiei /eiii

, (31)

aea Ip — iaeeie/ia iao?eoey (pxp),

. (32)

Ioe?iea R iiaea aooe io?eiaia c ae?aco

, (33)

, (34)

. (35)

Oiae? ioe?iea (34) iiaea aooe ae?aaeaiith ianooiiei /eiii:

, (36)

aea z[n] = a2z[n-1] + 1.
(37)

(38)

z[n] = a2z[n-1] + 1.
(39)

I?ioean iiaoaeiae aaaaoiaei??ii? ocaaaeueiaii? iiaeae? iiaea aooe
i?iaaaeaii ii ianooiiei ?aeo?aioiei ni?aa?aeiioaiiyi:

, (40)

, (41)

, (42)

, (43)

, (44)

. (45)

, iioeiaeueiee a niene? aeayeiai iaia?aae caaeaiiai e?eoa??th.

Ocaaaeueiaiee i?iaiic aoaeo?oueny a eean? e?i?eieo ooieoe?e:

. (46)

sse e?eoa??e ocaaaeueiaiiy aeei?enoiao?oueny noaiaea?oiee e?eoa??e
i?i?ioio noie eaaae?ao?a iiieeie i?iaiicoaaiiy. Oiae? i?ioeaaeo?o
iano?ithaaiiy iaa?aeiieo aaaiaeo eiao?oe??io?a iiaeia caienaoe

(47)

— iiiaeieee, ui caaeathoue ci?uaiiy a i?inoi?? ia?aiao??a ia eiaei?e
?oa?aoe??.

Iioeiaeueia iano?ithaaiiy iaa?aeiieo aaaiaeo eiao?oe??io?a aoaea
cae?enithaaoeny ca?aeii aeai?eoio

aea 0 < a < 2 - eiao?oe??io, aaaaeaiee aeey ciaioaiiy aieeao caaaae ia i?ioean iano?ithaaiiy. A cae?i/aii? ?icae?eo aeiaaaeaii ia/enethaaeueio i?inoioo ? aoaeoeai?noue aeei?enoaiiy io?eiaiiai aeai?eoio. A /aoaa?oiio ?icae?e? i?iaiae?ciaaii iniiai? iieacieee ioe?iee aoaeoeaiino? ae?yeueiino? IAN. ?icaeyiooi iniaeeaino? iiaoaeiae aenia?oieo ioe?iie. Io?eiai? a ?acoeueoao? iiaeaethaaiiy oa i?iaiicoaaiiy iieacieee cei/eiiino? iiaeooue aooe aeei?enoai? ye aeo?aei? aeai? aeey aiae?co noaio cei/eiiino? oa ioe?iee ae?yeueiino? i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa ii ?yaeo iieaciee?a ia aoai? i?aeaioiaee aei i?eeiyooy ??oaiue. , (49) - ?o aenia?oi? ioe?iee, ui oa?aeoa?ecothoue eiao?oe??ioe aaaeeeaino? a?aeiia?aeieo iieaciee?a ae?yeueiino? IAN. Aiae?c ci?ie noaio cei/eiiino? a /an? ii ie?aii acyo?e a?oi? cei/ei?a i?iaiaeeoueny ia iniia? aa?aaaoiiai ?iaeaeno ci?ie no?oeoo?e aeaeo cei/eiiino?, ui ?icaeyaea?oueny, yeee ?iceeaaea?oueny ia ?iaeaene ci?ie na?aaeiuei? oyaeeino? cei/ei?a oa caaaeueii? e?eueeino? cei/ei?a i-i? a?oie . (50) aeecueea aei 1, oi ?nio? iacia/ia ii?ooaiiy no?oeoo?e). Aiae?c cei/eiiino? ca oa?eoi??aeueiith iciaeith i?iaiaeeoueny ia iniia? oa?eoi??aeueieo ?iaeaen?a e?euee?nieo iieaciee?a, ye? a caaaeueiiio aeaeyae? iiaeooue aooe caienai? ye , (51) - a?aeiia?aei? aaaia? eiao?oe??ioe aai aenia?oi? ioe?iee. INIIAI? ?ACOEUeOAOE OA AENIIAEE A i?ioean? aeeiiaiiy ?iaioe io?eiaii ianooii? iniiai? oai?aoe/i? oa i?aeoe/i? ?acoeueoaoe: ?ic?iaeaii no?oeoo?o ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co noaio ? aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? oa cae?eniaii no?oeoo?ecaoe?th caaea/, ui ae??oothoueny i?ae?icae?eaie i?aai?a aioo??oi?o ni?aa. ?ic?iaeaii i?ioeaaeo?e iioeiaeueiiai iano?ithaaiiy ia?aiao??a i?iaiicoth/eo iiaeaeae cei/eiiino?. Iieacaii, ui cai?iiiiiaai? aeai?eoie aeicaieythoue nooo?ai nei?ioeoe ianya iaiao?aeieo ia/eneaiue ? ciaioothoue cao?aoe ?ano?n?a AII. Cai?iiiiiaaii aaeaioeaiee aeai?eoi iano?ithaaiiy ia?aiao??a ocaaaeueiaieo iiaeaeae aca?iica’ycaieo iieaciee?a cei/eiiino? c a?aeie?aieaiei iano?ithaaiiyi eiao?oe??io?a. Aeai?eoi caaacia/o? a?eueo aenieo oaeaee?noue ca?aeiino? a ii??aiyii? c aeai?eoiii Ea/iaaea o aeiaaeeo, eiee cia/aiiy oaeoi??a cia/ii a?ae??ciythoueny ii aaniethoi?e aaee/ei?. Cai?iiiiiaaii ? aeine?aeaeaii aaeaioeaiee aeai?eoi i?iaiicoaaiiy aaaaoiaei??ieo aeiaaeeiaeo iine?aeiaiinoae, yeee a?ae??ciy?oueny ia/enethaaeueiith i?inoioith. ?ic?iaeaii ? aeine?aeaeaii ?aeo?aioiee aeai?eoi iiaoaeiae iioeiaeueiiai i?iaiico, ui yaey? niaith ocaaaeueiaiiy aeai?eoio oeio Ea/iaaea. Iieacaii, ui aeai?eoi aeicaiey? nooo?ai nei?ioeoe ianya iaiao?aeieo ia/eneaiue Aeaii ii??aiyeueio oa?aeoa?enoeeo ?iaioe cai?iiiiiaaieo i?iaiicoth/eo aeai?eoi?a c a?aeiieie oa cai?iiiiiaaii ?aeiiaiaeaoe?? ii ?o i?aeoe/iiio canoinoaaiith. Cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiaeeeo ioe?iee noaio, no?oeoo?e ? aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? ia iniia? oa?eoi??aeueii-/aniaiai i?eioeeio oi?ioaaiiy cei/eiiino?. IOAE?EAOe?? II OAI? AeENA?OAOe?? sseiaeaa N.A., Aionia TH.A. Iaoaiaoe/aneea iaoiaeu ioeaiee ninoiyiey e i?iaiice?iaaiey i?anooiiinoe. - Oa?ueeia: Oi-o aioo?. aeae, 1998.- 158 n. Aionia TH.A. Iniaaiiinoe iiaeaee?iaaiey e i?iaiice?iaaiey i?anooiiinoe //ANO e i?eai?u aaoiiaoeee. - Oa?ueeia, 1997. - Aui. 105.- N.56- 60. Aionia TH.A. Iioeiecaoeey i?iaiicia a oneiaeyo iaii?aaeaeaiiinoe //Iaoiaeu iioeiecaoeee oaoie/aneeo e eioi?iaoeeiiiuo nenoai. Na. iao/. o?. Ei-o eeaa?iaoeee. - Eeaa, 1995.- N. 75-78. Aioeth?a I.A., Aionia TH.A., Caii?iaeaoe I.A. Iaeiioaaiaua aaeaioeaiua aeai?eoiu i?iaiice?iaaiey ?acaeoey nioeeaeueii-yeiiiie/aneeo nenoai //ANO e i?eai?u aaoiiaoeee. - Oa?ueeia, 1997.- Aui.104. - N. 132 - 135. sseiaeaa N.A., Oaoiaoeia N.A., Aionia TH.A. Ioe?iea aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?: ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/i? aniaeoe // A?niee Oi?aa?neoaoo aioo??oi?o ni?aa. - 1997. Aei.2.- N.11-20. Aionia TH.A., Caii?iaeaoe I.A. Aaeaioeaiua aeai?eoiu i?iaiice?iaaiey iiiaiia?iuo a?aiaiiuo ?yaeia. Oa?ueeia, 1996. - 5 n. ?on. - Aeai. a Oe?EIOYE 2.12.96, ? 202 - O?96 // Aiio. a ae. Aeni?an-iiaeie: iaoea, oaoi?ea, ae?iaieoeoai, ?2, 1997. Aionia TH.A., Caii?iaeaoe I.A. A?aaeeaioiue iiaeoiae e iino?iaieth aaeaioeaiuo aeai?eoiia eaeaioeoeeaoeee aeey nioeeaeueii-yeiiiie/aneeo nenoai. -Oa?ueeia,1996.-5 n.- ?on. - Aeai. a AIOA Oe?aeiu 21.10.96, ? 1945 - Oe96 // Aiio. a ae. Aeaiiiiaai? iaoeia? ?iaioe: ?AE/AeIOA. E., - 1997, ?2. Aiaeyineee A.A., Aionia TH.A. Eniieueciaaiea iaoaiaoe/aneeo iiaeaeae aeey auyaeaiey iaaaoeaiuo yaeaiee a nioeeaeueii-yeiiiie/aneeo nenoaiao //Iaaeaeoia?iaeiay eiioa?aioeey “Oai?ey e oaoieea ia?aaea/e, i?eaia e ia?aaioee eioi?iaoeee (a.Ooaina)”. Oacenu aeieeaaeia.-Oa?ueeia,1995.-N. 273. Aioeth?a I.A., Aionia TH.A., Eiacaa E.A. Iniaaiiinoe aiaeeca iieacaoaeae i?anooiiinoe // 3-y Iaaeaeoia?iaeiay eiioa?aioeey “Oai?ey e oaoieea ia?aaea/e, i?eaia e ia?aaioee eioi?iaoeee (a. Ooaina)”. Oacenu aeieeaaeia. - Oa?ueeia, 1997.- N. 157. AIIOAOe?? Aionia TH.A. ?ic?iaea ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co noaio oa aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino?. - ?oeiien. Aeena?oaoe?y ia caeiaoooy iaoeiaiai nooiaiy eaiaeeaeaoa oaoi?/ieo iaoe ca niaoe?aeuei?noth 05.13.06 - Aaoiiaoeciaai? nenoaie oi?aae?iiy oa i?ia?aneai? ?ioi?iaoe?ei? oaoiieia??. Oi?aa?neoao aioo??oi?o ni?aa. Oa?e?a, 1998. Cai?iiiiiaaii no?oeoo?o ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/iiai caaacia/aiiy aiae?co noaio oa aeeiai?ee ?icaeoeo cei/eiiino? ? aeaii oa?aeoa?enoeeo ia?aeiii? ?ioi?iaoe?? aeey aiae?co oa i?iaiicoaaiiy. Neioaciaaii oa aeine?aeaeaii aeai?eoie i?iaiicoaaiiy nooo?ai ianoaoe?iia?ieo /aniaeo ?yae?a iieaciee?a cei/eiiino?. ?ic?iaeaii iaoiaee iiaoaeiae ocaaaeueiaieo iiaeaeae aca?iica'ycaieo iieaciee?a cei/eiiino? oa iioeiaeueieo i?iaiic?a. Cai?iiiiiaaii iaoiaeeeo aiae?co no?oeoo?e, noaio oa aeeiai?ee cei/eiiino?, yea caniiaaia ia oa?eoi??aeueii-/aniaiio i?eioeei?. Eeth/ia? neiaa: ?ioi?iaoe?eii-aiae?oe/ia caaacia/aiiy, aiae?c, i?iaiicoaaiiy, /ania? ?yaee, ocaaaeueiaia, oa?eoi??aeueii-/aniai? i?eioeei. Aionia TH.A. ?ac?aaioea eioi?iaoeeiiii-aiaeeoe/aneiai iaania/aiey aiaeeca ninoiyiey e aeeiaieee ?acaeoey i?anooiiinoe. - ?oeiienue. Aeenna?oaoeey ia nieneaiea o/aiie noaiaie eaiaeeaeaoa oaoie/aneeo iaoe ii niaoeeaeueiinoe 05.13.06 - Aaoiiaoece?iaaiiua nenoaiu oi?aaeaiey e i?ia?anneaiua eioi?iaoeeiiiua oaoiieiaee. Oieaa?neoao aioo?aiieo aeae. Oa?ueeia, 1998. I?aaeeiaeaia no?oeoo?a eioi?iaoeeiiii-aiaeeoe/aneiai iaania/aiey aiaeeca ninoiyiey e aeeiaieee ?acaeoey i?anooiiinoe e aeaia oa?aeoa?enoeea ia?ae/iie eioi?iaoeee aeey aiaeeca e i?iaiice?iaaiey. Neioace?iaaiu e enneaaeiaaiu aeai?eoiu i?iaiice?iaaiey nouanoaaiii ianoaoeeiia?iuo a?aiaiiuo ?yaeia iieacaoaeae i?anooiiinoe. ?ac?aaioaiu iaoiaeu iino?iaiey iaiauaiiuo iiaeaeae acaeiinaycaiiuo iieacaoaeae i?anooiiinoe e iioeiaeueiiai i?iaiicia. I?aaeeiaeaia iaoiaeeea aiaeeca no?oeoo?u, ninoiyiey e aeeiaieee i?anooiiinoe, iniiaaiiay ia oa??eoi?eaeueii-a?aiaiiii i?eioeeia. Eeth/aaua neiaa: eioi?iaoeeiiii-aiaeeoe/aneia iaania/aiea, aiaeec, i?iaiice?iaaiea, a?aiaiiua ?yaeu, iaiauaiiay iiaeaeue, oa??eoi?eaeueii-a?aiaiiie i?eioeei. Gnusov Yu.V. Working out information and analytical support of providing analysis of the state and dynamics in the growth of criminality. - Manuscript. The thesis is presented for the candidate’s degree of technical science. The speciality code is 05.13.06 - Automated Control Systems and Progressive Information Technologies. University of Internal Affairs, Kharkov, 1998. The structure of information and analytical support of providing analysis of the state and dynamics in the growth of criminality is suggested and characteristics of primary information for analysis and prediction is given. Algorithms of prediction significantly non-stationary time-series of criminality indexed have been synthesized and studied. Methods of creating generalized models of interconnected criminality indexes and optimal prediction have been worked out. Methodology analysis of the structure, state and dynamics of criminality based on place-and-time principles has been suggested. Key words: information and analytical support, analysis, prediction, time-series, generalized model, place-and-time principle. PAGE - PAGE 9 - PAGE 19

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